Rumor: Avs Proposals/Rumors/Free Agents 18-19 part XVII| Are We Sellers?

[Meeqs]

It would be pretty shocking if the avs end using all 5 of the top 100 picks that we currently own in this draft. We'd basically need the lotto gods to grant us Hughes with the OTT pick...and a handshake with Stone or Panarin about coming to Denver in FA wouldn't hurt. Maybe it would be enough to have heard through back-channels from their agents, that we'll be able to land both Hayes & Silfverberg in FA as long as we give up that extra year & overpay each one by ~1m a year.

...but getting to top 6 FAs to come to Colorado seems like a stretch when Ryan Smythe was the last top 6er to sign with the Avs in FA...

I don't see why keeping the picks would be shocking. D&D is the most vital part of finding success in todays NHL, this year is a deep draft and the extra picks allow them to swing for the fences on some bigger risk reward players, like lets say picking a goalie high. Also as the Avs enter their competitive window, young prospects will be their biggest trade assets come TDL for rentals when they are in a primed position to be going for it. Also the Avs have a ton of contracts to deal with this offseason so having a ton of picks isn't an issue there either.

Panarin wants to go to a big city so he isn't coming here, but Stone I could see should he hit UFA. Stone is SUPER interesting to be as he is elite and signing him essentially makes the Avs better for the next 3-4 years but then his contract becomes a burden for the remainder of it, so getting him really depends on when you think the Avs best chance to win a cup will be. So I'm in the middle on going after him. ATM this UFA is SO stacked I think there will be very good players like Zucc, Eberle, etc who end up having to take cheap short term deals because there are just too many good players ahead of them who will get big money and there could be steals out there.

In terms of "good UFAs not coming to Co" that was because the team sucked ass for a long long time. No one was signing up to play with Aranson. The Avs are good, young, up and coming team with a ton of cap space to make moves and be competitive but they also have a lot of good young players who will need to be paid in the next 3ish years or so. So its a complicated topic but historically like 99% of UFA deals are a mistake so I personally side on the do nothing but cheap depth options, but this year is a tad different as there are a ton of really top end guys which we haven't seen in many years.

 

[Foppa2118]

Why should we assume that?

You don't have to. I was just for the sake of argument.

If he liked the prices though, and was open to a trade, wouldn't he have done so by now though? Feels like he either doesn't want to give up assets for a top 6er period (the first option), or he doesn't like the asking price right now (the second option).

 

[lonelybadger]

On one hand it is easy for Sakic to preach the slow and steady approach which most of us fans will agree with. But I can only assume the locker room is having a bad time right now, and that is more important than what the fans think. To go from competing for first in the west to not winning a game for a month and clinging to a WC spot cannot feel good for the players.

 

[Foppa2118]

No coach has ever been in trouble over 6 games. That's just fans freaking out because that is what fans do. Pretty much every single team other than TBL has been on a losing streak like this, its normal.

Its also pretty silly to blame the coach for a 6 game losing streak but not give him credit for 2 10 game winning streaks ya know.

Well just to be clear, I'm not blaming him. I've said before I don't think he's the problem, but he also hasn't been able to fix these poor starts, and that's concerning. That kind of thing usually does in a coach eventually.

How many head coaches in their third+ year, sitting on the playoff bubble have gotten away with 8 game losing streaks? Eight is where I'd expect his seat to be red hot, but that doesn't mean Sakic will fire him. He's way more loyal to his coaches than other GM's.

 

[Meeqs]

I would love to see a Sakic offersheet this offseason. Laine come on down!

That's a good plan, piss off a team right before the Avs will have a ton of RFA's to sign that they could just screw us over the next 3 years for revenge.

OS are specifically designed not to work, I wouldn't waste any energy on em. You could always get UFA guys for cheaper and it would cost less assets to trade for a player than it would to OS. Its the worst of all scenarios

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

That's a good plan, piss off a team right before the Avs will have a ton of RFA's to sign that they could just screw us over the next 3 years for revenge.

OS are specifically designed not to work, I wouldn't waste any energy on em. You could always get UFA guys for cheaper and it would cost less assets to trade for a player than it would to OS. Its the worst of all scenarios

But...Laine-Hughes-Kakko would totally be worth it.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Sure but when you have 2 1sts in a draft that is stacked with high end centers is trading for someone really a solution when you already have the assets that will possibly/likely end up filling that void?

Not fast enough

That is what NHL 19 and fantasy hockey is for....

I am fine with a trade that would net a pending UFA that would sign ie Hayes or ideally Stone. The 2c spot should hopefully be solved with Ottawas pick, but everyone knows I want Stone and now....

Agreed

I see #1 being the most likely.

Seems that way

When only 1 of those "highend centers" is likely to make an impact in the NHL before MacKinnon is in the final 2 seasons of his contract? F*** yeah it is. Unfortunately in real life you can't just wave a wand & have everyone on your roster at the peak of their abilities with the most team-friendly contractual status of their careers, all at the same time.

That's why lining up your timelines takes a s***ton of luck...or some proactivity...

If Sakic wants to just see how this season plays out I hope he makes it a mandate that Bednar give some of the kids in the AHL a real chance. See what you have rather than continuously rolling out the same depth grinders.

I doubt they'd do that unless we really do end up with two lottery selections, but who knows.

Trade MacKinnon before he turns into a 4-year-rental & we're forced to sell him for scraps?


True...but making a trade that presents a longterm resolution to the causes of a losing streak, often is ;-)

#1 Too far, just too far..

#2 BOOM

Oh and all those likes must be like what it is for you when I'm just following your main board discussion but don't feel like putting forth the same level of effort. Feelin the love

 

[Meeqs]

Well just to be clear, I'm not blaming him. I've said before I don't think he's the problem, but he also hasn't been able to fix these poor starts, and that's concerning. That kind of thing usually does in a coach eventually.

How many head coaches in their third+ year, sitting on the playoff bubble have gotten away with 8 game losing streaks? Eight is where I'd expect his seat to be red hot, but that doesn't mean Sakic will fire him. He's way more loyal to his coaches than other GM's.

You mean like in NSH where they have/had been on a longer losing streak with a good team? Or in Pit where they were awful to start the year.

Bednar has shown great skill in developing young players and getting the most out of his roster, especially in the playoffs.

Any talk about the coach during this stretch is nothing short of uneducated foolishness, which is essentially foolish ideas fueled by perfectly legitimate emotions of frustration from the circumstances. The difference is the people running the teams don't act on emotion and when you take a level headed and historical approach to the situation you'll see its not even close.

If you want to know whats up with the Avs, look at their season PDO chart along with the seasonal shot rates and it'll make sense. They've been in a funk but also have been getting unlucky.

 

[Meeqs]

Not fast enough

Not fast enough? Hughes would likely play next year and a player like Cozens could be ready in 1-2. Hell even Turcotte could drop to the Avs pick and be ready in the season after next. Guys are coming in younger and younger and making an impact and the Avs window doesn't even start until next year when Makar, Kaut, etc make the jump up to the team. Then they have a window for the next 8 years.

This year doesn't matter, the Avs have the skill to win a round, maybe 2 but they don't have the depth to win it all unless players really over excelled.

 

[Meeqs]

But...Laine-Hughes-Kakko would totally be worth it.

How long do you think this losing streak will last ahahah

 

[CobraAcesS]

Not fast enough? Hughes would likely play next year and a player like Cozens could be ready in 1-2. Hell even Turcotte could drop to the Avs pick and be ready in the season after next. Guys are coming in younger and younger and making an impact and the Avs window doesn't even start until next year when Makar, Kaut, etc make the jump up to the team. Then they have a window for the next 8 years.

This year doesn't matter, the Avs have the skill to win a round, maybe 2 but they don't have the depth to win it all unless players really over excelled.

It is definitely more of a response to our pick than the Ottawa pick honestly. As you point out though, the Ottawa pick has to land in the right spot for it to be a quick fix.

Oh and I'm not sure we are in a playoff spot let alone winning a round without a top six forward added. It is the second top six forward, and Makar panning out that puts us in the next conversation.

 

[Meeqs]

On one hand it is easy for Sakic to preach the slow and steady approach which most of us fans will agree with. But I can only assume the locker room is having a bad time right now, and that is more important than what the fans think. To go from competing for first in the west to not winning a game for a month and clinging to a WC spot cannot feel good for the players.

Most of them went through the 60 loss season, 6 games isn't going to bother them. Its all part of a year and they will figure it out.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Not fast enough? Hughes would likely play next year and a player like Cozens could be ready in 1-2. Hell even Turcotte could drop to the Avs pick and be ready in the season after next. Guys are coming in younger and younger and making an impact and the Avs window doesn't even start until next year when Makar, Kaut, etc make the jump up to the team. Then they have a window for the next 8 years.

This year doesn't matter, the Avs have the skill to win a round, maybe 2 but they don't have the depth to win it all unless players really over excelled.

But they wouldn’t be cup caliber 2nd line centers in their first two years. Well Hughes would, but the chances of those guys being cup caliber 2nd liners by their D+2/3 season is a bet I wouldn’t want to make.

 

[Meeqs]

It is definitely more of a response to our pick than the Ottawa pick honestly. As you point out though, the Ottawa pick has to land in the right spot for it to be a quick fix.

Pretty much any 1st round pick will likely be in the line up in the next 2 years with how deep it is and with the team already having a ton of young guys coming up next year how fast does it have to be? Even with the current flaws the Avs are still a bubble team.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Pretty much any 1st round pick will likely be in the line up in the next 2 years with how deep it is and with the team already having a ton of young guys coming up next year how fast does it have to be? Even with the current flaws the Avs are still a bubble team.

Tyson Jost is your key to a cup?

 

[Meeqs]

But they wouldn’t be cup caliber 2nd line centers in their first two years. Well Hughes would, but the chances of those guys being cup caliber 2nd liners by their D+2/3 season is a bet I wouldn’t want to make.

Not sure I would agree with that. Look at the EP's, Kellers, Barzals. Kids are coming into the league ready to play and with the top line already drawing the heavy match ups and help surrounding them they could do plenty of damage.

 

[Meeqs]

Tyson Jost is your key to a cup?

Elite duo which few teams have, defensive depth and a system tailor made for todays game are the Avs strengths. Depth scoring is their biggest need and if they can get that solved they will be a major threat for a long long time. Where Jost fits into that will be figured out in time.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Not sure I would agree with that. Look at the EP's, Kellers, Barzals. Kids are coming into the league ready to play and with the top line already drawing the heavy match ups and help surrounding them they could do plenty of damage.

Actually Barzal is struggling with that now that JT isn't there, and it is too much of a coin flip. You could get Tyson Jost or a Mikko Rantanen.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Elite duo which few teams have, defensive depth and a system tailor made for todays game are the Avs strengths. Depth scoring is their biggest need and if they can get that solved they will be a major threat for a long long time. Where Jost fits into that will be figured out in time.

Depth scoring is a very loose term here. I'd say we need better quality in our depth scoring, and any year it isn't added is a waste.

 

[Meeqs]

Actually Barzal is struggling with that now that JT isn't there, and it is too much of a coin flip. You could get Tyson Jost or a Mikko Rantanen.

Barzal has been a PPG and killin it. He is easily a cup caliber 2c in both his D2 and D3 year and he wasn't even a top 10 guy.

While I would agree that certain draft years are much better than others we generally know how each year is before hand. This year doesn't have a generational guy, Hughes is essentially P. Kane but it is super deep and there will be some legit talent all throughout the 1st round. I really like this draft, especially at center.

 

[Meeqs]

Depth scoring is a very loose term here. I'd say we need better quality in our depth scoring, and any year it isn't added is a waste.

The Avs currently don't have a legit 2nd line. The current 2nd line has middle 6ers, the 3rd line has 2 4th liners and the 4th line is AHL guys when injured. The trickle down effect is real. The Avs need a high end 2c and possible a wing and then they are set and then its just adding depth on depth from there. Also once/if both Makar and Timmins get in the line up next year that is a major boost to the offense.

I mean if you have:

God line
Kerf/Cozens/Kaut
JT/Soderberg/Jost
Nieto/Sven/Kam/Calvert

That is 2 players added and a WORLD of difference. Really put in whoever you want, when you add in a legit 2nd line player like a Stone for example it makes all the lines better.

 

[McMetal]

It'll never happen, but swapping Marty back for Ghetto to bring in a physical presence might actually help a tad. That's only because Ghetto's not doing much of anything right now though.

Eh... Marty's physical presence is overrated. He can have maybe two or three games in a row where he hits everything in sight and is a pure terror, and maybe even throw out a Forsberg-esque rush that makes you think he has some offensive upside, and then he'll go 15 games where you would never guess he was on the ice.

 

[Foppa2118]

You mean like in NSH where they have/had been on a longer losing streak with a good team? Or in Pit where they were awful to start the year.

Bednar has shown great skill in developing young players and getting the most out of his roster, especially in the playoffs.

Any talk about the coach during this stretch is nothing short of uneducated foolishness, which is essentially foolish ideas fueled by perfectly legitimate emotions of frustration from the circumstances. The difference is the people running the teams don't act on emotion and when you take a level headed and historical approach to the situation you'll see its not even close.

If you want to know whats up with the Avs, look at their season PDO chart along with the seasonal shot rates and it'll make sense. They've been in a funk but also have been getting unlucky.

Nashville had a 6 game losing streak with Laviolette who took them to the SC finals a couple years ago, and Poille is just as loyal, if not more so than Sakic to his coaches. Look how long Trotz lasted. They were also 1st or 2nd still in the Central, not a wild card team like the Avs.

The Pens had a 5 game losing streak this year, and won back to back Stanley Cups with Mike Sullivan, before losing to the eventual Cup winners in Washington last year.

Neither are examples of a coach surviving an 8 game losing streak, nor are they comparable to the Avs situation where they haven't won anything recently, and were in a good playoff position earlier, only to have it start slipping away.

There's a limit to the losing streak that any coach can get away with, and luck is not at all the reason for why the Avs have been playing like crap. They've been playing like crap because they're playing like crap. Luck is not the reason they've been making tons of mental errors, bad passes, and taking bad penalties.

Again, I'm not saying that Bednar will or should be fired, but coaches have been fired for less than an 8 or a 6 game losing streak. Saying, "No coach has ever been in trouble over 6 games" just isn't accurate.

 

[CobraAcesS]

The Avs currently don't have a legit 2nd line. The current 2nd line has middle 6ers, the 3rd line has 2 4th liners and the 4th line is AHL guys when injured. The trickle down effect is real. The Avs need a high end 2c and possible a wing and then they are set and then its just adding depth on depth from there. Also once/if both Makar and Timmins get in the line up next year that is a major boost to the offense.

I mean if you have:

God line
Kerf/Cozens/Kaut
JT/Soderberg/Jost
Nieto/Sven/Kam/Calvert

That is 2 players added and a WORLD of difference. Really put in whoever you want, when you add in a legit 2nd line player like a Stone for example it makes all the lines better.

So again, we agree, just maybe not quite on the speed that it needs to happen. That lineup wouldn't have Soda in it by the time it is ready.

I don't think we're going to agree on the timeline, and that is actually a fairly common argument right now. You could be right, but I think your timeline takes a lot more luck.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Not sure I would agree with that. Look at the EP's, Kellers, Barzals. Kids are coming into the league ready to play and with the top line already drawing the heavy match ups and help surrounding them they could do plenty of damage.

Keller has regressed a bit this year after having a strong year. But I mean it’s possible, its just a big risk to put all our marbles in draft picks. I mean if we can use our pick to get a 2nd liner we might as well go for it.