Post-Game Talk: Avs @ Devils 5PM MST || All they needed was some more chemistry and some symmetries.

[InjuredChoker]

shows landeskog's lack of leadership and immaturity when his teammates won't score when he's on the ice.

 

[AvsRobin]

Did you read what he wrote? It wasn't as much focusing on him, but who he's been out there with. His linemates only have three goals on 100 shots when he's on the ice. That's absurdly low. Landy's numbers would look a lot better if only a few of those went in.

Certainly explains his low amount of assists.

 

[Freudian]

I never felt that Landeskog played with poor effort. If you feel that way I think you have some sort of bias that makes you see things that aren't really there.

No player in the league will have that low a on-ice shooting percentage in the long run and definitely not a top six forward. Some fourth liners will get there. Cliche last year had 3.64% and was fifth worst in the league among those taking regular shifts while Bordeleau and McLeod had 6.83% and 7.11%.

I'd be very surprised if Landeskog doesn't end the season with at least the double of what he currently has. MacKinnon has 4.03%, which is also unsustainably low.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Did you read what he wrote? It wasn't as much focusing on him, but who he's been out there with. His linemates only have three goals on 100 shots when he's on the ice. That's absurdly low. Landy's numbers would look a lot better if only a few of those went in.

I did read it which is why I made my post. His research only makes him unlucky when it comes to +/-. His +/- isn't a good indication of how his play has been. While his +/- is bad, his on ice play has been pretty bad too but the two aren't related. Luck has nothing to do with Landeskog's play this year.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

I never felt that Landeskog played with poor effort. If you feel that way I think you have some sort of bias that makes you see things that aren't really there.

No player in the league will have that low a on-ice shooting percentage in the long run and definitely not a top six forward. Some fourth liners will get there. Cliche last year had 3.64% and was fifth worst in the league among those taking regular shifts while Bordeleau and McLeod had 6.83% and 7.11%.

I'd be very surprised if Landeskog doesn't end the season with at least the double of what he currently has. MacKinnon has 4.03%, which is also unsustainably low.

I feel landeskog has given poor effort and it has nothing to do with bias (I'm an Avs fan, and a Landeskog fan)
If i was new to the sport and watched them play I probably wouldn't feel that way but I feel that way because i've seen in the past (and in stints this year) the effort that he really can bring. I don't expect anybody to play viking mode 100% of the time of their bodies would give out but I do expect a lot more than what he's given.

 

[AvsRobin]

I did read it which is why I made my post. His research only makes him unlucky when it comes to +/-. His +/- isn't a good indication of how his play has been. While his +/- is bad, his on ice play has been pretty bad too but the two aren't related. Luck has nothing to do with Landeskog's play this year.

Luck has a lot to due with his production. His play? That's a different story. I think he has been fine in a struggling team. But your eyes may see something else. That's fine.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

I feel landeskog has given poor effort and it has nothing to do with bias (I'm an Avs fan, and a Landeskog fan)
If i was new to the sport and watched them play I probably wouldn't feel that way but I feel that way because i've seen in the past (and in stints this year) the effort that he really can bring. I don't expect anybody to play viking mode 100% of the time of their bodies would give out but I do expect a lot more than what he's given.

Don't you think the effort has "looked" better recently? I really just think it was the system before (everyone was too scared to get beat knowing help would not come is my theory). Just about everyone looked slow to the puck and never really even in a position to force a 50/50 battle (it would end up more like 75/25). But since we made the changes the team as a whole "looks" like they are putting forth more effort to me.

 

[S E P H]

The Swede posters here are hellbent to try and defend a struggling player who somehow is Swedish has been intriguing for the most part. Then throwing loose based terms like "luck" makes it have a slight hilarious tone to it.

I have nothing against Landeskog, but luck is such a relative term, you cannot determine Gabriel's whole 100% play this season over one prevaricating word. He simply hasn't been working hard enough this season to get results. Duchene, even being two inches less and 10 lbs lighter goes to the net practically every time with the puck. This was a main point of Landeskog's game in the past which has been pretty much non existent this time around (could be due to an injury perhaps). Then he has such a low shooting percentage because all his shots are around perimeter Wolski territory. Pretty sure even Cloutier will not let majority of those in.

Defensively I think he has been great, though offensively totally opposite. Yes some unfortunate bounces have gone his way considering there are some goals he should have scored, but for the most part, I think he deserves all the blame coming his way offensively as a black hole.

E: To add, teams win games because their best players have been the best players. ROR and Landeskog even though are playing top 6 minutes have been some of the worst, thus have cost this team games in the beginning of the season. The effort though in the last two games from both, has had reminiscence of last season so that is a start...

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Don't you think the effort has "looked" better recently? I really just think it was the system before (everyone was too scared to get beat knowing help would not come is my theory). Just about everyone looked slow to the puck and never really even in a position to force a 50/50 battle (it would end up more like 75/25). But since we made the changes the team as a whole "looks" like they are putting forth more effort to me.

Agree 100% that the effort has looked better. I'm just saying his poor start wasn't bad luck. I'm expecting Landy to start carrying a lot more weight on his back. He's a competitor and I don't expect the poor start to continue all year. I have faith in him.

 

[Freudian]

The Swede posters here are hellbent to try and defend a struggling player who somehow is Swedish has been intriguing for the most part. Then throwing loose based terms like "luck" makes it have a slight hilarious tone to it.

I have nothing against Landeskog, but luck is such a relative term, you cannot determine Gabriel's whole 100% play this season over one prevaricating word. He simply hasn't been working hard enough this season to get results. Duchene, even being two inches less and 10 lbs lighter goes to the net practically every time with the puck. This was a main point of Landeskog's game in the past which has been pretty much non existent this time around (could be due to an injury perhaps). Then he has such a low shooting percentage because all his shots are around perimeter Wolski territory. Pretty sure even Cloutier will not let majority of those in.

Defensively I think he has been great, though offensively totally opposite. Yes some unfortunate bounces have gone his way considering there are some goals he should have scored, but for the most part, I think he deserves all the blame coming his way offensively as a black hole.

E: To add, teams win games because their best players have been the best players. ROR and Landeskog even though are playing top 6 minutes have been some of the worst, thus have cost this team games in the beginning of the season. The effort though in the last two games from both, has had reminiscence of last season so that is a start...

You do realize we have data for thousands of players playing thousands of seasons so we have a pretty good idea what a normal on-ice shooting percentage is and can recognize when someone is having an extremely low on-ice shooting percentage?

If you truly are arguing that Landeskog somehow is playing at a level that leads to his team shooting at a 3.86% level when he's on the ice you believe he's turned into the worst player in NHL history over the summer.

Call it puck luck, bounces or whatever you want. It's not going to last. Pucks will start going in at a higher rate than they have.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Landy has the best Corsi on the team. As much as I rag on the stat whackers, in this case it's a decent way to measure performance of players on the same team.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

Guess we'll just have to agree to disagree immensely. Because I just don't understand how anyone can watch ROR this year and think he's looked like himself before this last game.

Where did I say he looks like himself? I even said he could be playing better, meaning he has not been as good as he has shown in the past.

there is a huge difference between looking like yourself and being terrible though. The guy hasn't been terrible, just underperforming like 95% of the team.

ROR is hot garbage and everyone knows it. 2 goals in 19 games? That's *********. He needs to produce. Landy needs to produce. McGinn needs to produce. Iggy needs to score. Or we are going nowhere fast.

And back to my original point? Why is Duchene exclude from this list? His production is down just as much as RoR, McGinn and Iggy (Ill give you Lando, he is even further behind than these guys).

 

[dahrougem2]

the only way using 3 lines equally would work is if you would never play the 4th line and we know how much patty loves his 4th line

To be fair, and I ran on them a lot, they have been a very good line the past 5 games or so (Excluding the Isles game, everyone gets excluded from that game). This game vs the Devils especially, it seemed like they were always in the offensive zone battling hard, cycling well and putting pucks towards the net.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Where did I say he looks like himself? I even said he could be playing better, meaning he has not been as good as he has shown in the past.

there is a huge difference between looking like yourself and being terrible though. The guy hasn't been terrible, just underperforming like 95% of the team.



And back to my original point? Why is Duchene exclude from this list? His production is down just as much as RoR, McGinn and Iggy (Ill give you Lando, he is even further behind than these guys).

I cant speak for everyone else, but I've been excluding Duchene from my lists because he gives an effort night after night. Same reason I have a lot of love for EJ, Mitchell, Everberg and Tanguay. Duchene definitely needs to be less careless with the puck and we could hope for some more production but at least he's giving it his all.

 

[cgf]

Where did I say he looks like himself? I even said he could be playing better, meaning he has not been as good as he has shown in the past.

there is a huge difference between looking like yourself and being terrible though. The guy hasn't been terrible, just underperforming like 95% of the team.



And back to my original point? Why is Duchene exclude from this list? His production is down just as much as RoR, McGinn and Iggy (Ill give you Lando, he is even further behind than these guys).

Again agree to disagree. ROR has looked like a vastly worse player than he has at any point before for us in my eyes. He's been awful in puck battles, and even his patented takeaways haven't worked cause he's giving the puck right back or dumping it in with no one flying after it.

I love watching ROR play when he's himself, even if the production isn't there and he's sloppy with the puck. But this year he hasn't even been good without the puck, and that is frustrating and a huge difference. If the only problem was bad puck luck, or sloppy passing I wouldn't mind, but that's not the end of his struggles.

 

[cgf]

To be fair, and I ran on them a lot, they have been a very good line the past 5 games or so (Excluding the Isles game, everyone gets excluded from that game). This game vs the Devils especially, it seemed like they were always in the offensive zone battling hard, cycling well and putting pucks towards the net.

My biggest gripe with that lines play over the past week or two has been the penalties they draw that kill our momentum because that's what our PP does. The double minor Cliche drew was the perfect example, the team lost it's urgency and that great shift by the 4th line ended up hurting us.

 

[Freudian]

So here is the math:

Landeskogs ES on-ice shooting this year is: 3.86%. This number isn't just his but the shooting of all Avs players when he's on the ice. Avs have scored five ES goals when he's on the ice.

His lowest ES on-ice shooting in his career up to now is 5.51%. That was during the shortened season when he played 36 games so it's a small sample. If Avs had an ES on-ice shooting percentage this low when he's on the ice, he would have been on the ice for two more ES goals.

His career average ES on-ice shooting is 8.26%. With that level of on-ice shooting in ES this year, Landeskog would have been on the ice for six more ES goals than he's been.

His best year he had 10.46% on ice shooting percentage. If he had that this year he would have been on the ice for nine more ES goals than he currently has been.

It's very easy to get so result oriented so you believe players wildly over or under-achieving are getting what they deserve but sometimes the numbers are so extreme it's mostly good or bad fortune.

This doesn't mean that Landeskog has been great this year. It just means he hasn't been as poor as the results he's getting. No matter what your eye test or effort radar tell you.

 

[ThatAvsGamer]

So here is the math:

Landeskogs ES on-ice shooting this year is: 3.86%. This number isn't just his but the shooting of all Avs players when he's on the ice. Avs have scored five ES goals when he's on the ice.

His lowest ES on-ice shooting in his career up to now is 5.51%. That was during the shortened season when he played 36 games so it's a small sample. If Avs had an ES on-ice shooting percentage this low when he's on the ice, he would have been on the ice for two more ES goals.

His career average ES on-ice shooting is 8.26%. With that level of on-ice shooting in ES this year, Landeskog would have been on the ice for six more ES goals than he's been.

His best year he had 10.46% on ice shooting percentage. If he had that this year he would have been on the ice for nine more ES goals than he currently has been.

It's very easy to get so result oriented so you believe players wildly over or under-achieving are getting what they deserve but sometimes the numbers are so extreme it's mostly good or bad fortune.

This doesn't mean that Landeskog has been great this year. It just means he hasn't been as poor as the results he's getting. No matter what your eye test or effort radar tell you.

You could do this for any of our core forwards, yes even O'reilly.

 

[Freudian]

You could do this for any of our core forwards.

To show that Landeskog (and MacKinnon) have had extreme bad luck? Sure.

Duchene has 9.15% ES on ice shooting this season. Career avg: 8.76%
O'Reilly has 6.67% ES on ice shooting this season. Career avg: 7.02%
Tanguay has 11.34% ES on ice shooting this season. Avg since 2007: ~12,4%
Iginla has 9.49% ES on ice shooting this season. Avg since 2007: ~10.8%

 

[S E P H]

You do realize we have data for thousands of players playing thousands of seasons so we have a pretty good idea what a normal on-ice shooting percentage is and can recognize when someone is having an extremely low on-ice shooting percentage?

If you truly are arguing that Landeskog somehow is playing at a level that leads to his team shooting at a 3.86% level when he's on the ice you believe he's turned into the worst player in NHL history over the summer.

Call it puck luck, bounces or whatever you want. It's not going to last. Pucks will start going in at a higher rate than they have.

I said that part of it has to be because of some unfortunate bounces and being at the wrong place in wrong time. He definitely should have had one or two goals against the Wild in the second game of the season. And I believe he has been skatebitten against Florida and Maple Leafs both games. But as Duchene says, "players make their own luck" and what has Landeskog not been doing this season compared to last? Crashing the net and going to the dirty areas. And remember how many 2v1's he has had and missed the net because he was looking for the perfect post and in shot. That is not bad luck as you make it out to be, that is purely his own fault for being an idiot and hitting the glass (instead of shooting for the rebound). My goaler coach in juniors and every single one said to me that 70-80% of goals happen because of secondary shots (or rebounds). I said this could be due to an injury we do not know about, though in the last three games, Mr. Freudian, you can tell there has been a clear difference in Landeskog's game compared to the 15-16 of the previous ones. He has been taking the puck to the net more, going to the dirty areas, and whacking multiply times (even after the whistle) so I do agree that the pucks are going to start heading in.

My main argument is that close to half or more of his low shooting percentage can be contributed to low percentage shots from the hash mark walls. Which the main cause for this was extremely poor form offensively for majority of the early season.

I cant speak for everyone else, but I've been excluding Duchene from my lists because he gives an effort night after night. Same reason I have a lot of love for EJ, Mitchell, Everberg and Tanguay. Duchene definitely needs to be less careless with the puck and we could hope for some more production but at least he's giving it his all.

Not really, Duchene has been one of the most poorest forwards in the last 2-4 games. Thankfully he is still putting up points while not playing even good hockey IMO.

 

[Pokecheque]

It's probably already been pointed out but:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/spor...t-keep-burning-teams-forever/article21610221/

UNLUCKIEST PLAYER IN THE LEAGUE

There are a lot of candidates this early on, but one right up there has to be Avs captain Gabriel Landeskog.

After 19 games, Landeskog has been on the ice for five goals for and 15 against at even strength. The Avs’ shooting percentage when he’s on the ice has been 3.8 per cent, one of the lowest in the league.

If you take his two 5-on-5 goals out of the equation, his linemates have scored only three times on nearly 100 shots on goal.

The Avs goalies, meanwhile, aren’t saving much when he’s out there, which is what often makes plus-minus such a dubious stat.

This won’t keep up all year, but it’s been a very hard start for a good young player.

 

[Freudian]

My main argument is that close to half or more of his low shooting percentage can be contributed to low percentage shots from the hash mark walls. Which the main cause for this was extremely poor form offensively for majority of the early season.

It's not just his shooting percentage. It's the shooting percentage for all five Avs players when he's on the ice.

Landeskog have always taken a lot of junk shots. He did it as a rookie and he does it now. That's why his individual shooting percentage won't be impressive.

 

[Avs_19]

It's probably already been pointed out but:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/spor...t-keep-burning-teams-forever/article21610221/

These damn Swedish journalists making excuses for him.

 

[S E P H]

It's not just his shooting percentage. It's the shooting percentage for all five Avs players when he's on the ice.

Landeskog have always taken a lot of junk shots. He did it as a rookie and he does it now. That's why his individual shooting percentage won't be impressive.

His junk shots could be killing any offensive potential the line could be having. I've noticed the same thing with MacKinnon and his "bad luck" earlier on in the season. The goals were not going in so he decided to kill any offensive potential a zone cycle or odd-man rush could have with a low percentage goal line shot covered by the goaler. Then Avs as a team have one of the worst faceoff percentage giving the opposing team the puck back on their stick. Rinse and repeat and this could determine why not only are those players are not scoring goals, but also their line-mates as well. Only difference between these two and ROR is that Duchene has majority of the puck when coming in offensively.

Also I added more information to my previous post. You cannot forget how many 2v1s Landeskog has had and hit the glass on majority of them. That is his own fault and not based on bad luck shooting percentage.

But I think we can all agree that Landeskog will start scoring goals because he has looked like a much better player last week (except for the Islanders game which the whole team looked like ****).

 

[Freudian]

His junk shots could be killing any offensive potential the line could be having. I've noticed the same thing with MacKinnon and his "bad luck" earlier on in the season. The goals were not going in so he decided to kill any offensive potential a zone cycle or odd-man rush could have with a low percentage goal line shot covered by the goaler. Then Avs as a team have one of the worst faceoff percentage giving the opposing team the puck back on their stick. Rinse and repeat and this could determine why not only are those players are not scoring goals, but also their line-mates as well. Only difference between these two and ROR is that Duchene has majority of the puck when coming in offensively.

Also I added more information to my previous post. You cannot forget how many 2v1s Landeskog has had and hit the glass on majority of them. That is his own fault and not based on bad luck shooting percentage.

But I think we can all agree that Landeskog will start scoring goals because he has looked like a much better player last week (except for the Islanders game which the whole team looked like ****).

You are having anecdotal objections to an argument supported by data that is so convincing that no reasonable person should doubt it.

Yes. He's had a bunch of shots that were bad and botched the odd 2-on-1 here and there. That doesn't change that Avs have been massively unlucky when he's on the ice.

Since 2007, among players playing 1000 minutes or more in the league (894 of them) the lowest ES on ice shooting percentage is 4.17%. The lowest Avs player is Yelle with 5.63%.

Landeskog has 3.86% over 19 games. It won't last.