Post-Game Talk: Avs @ Devils 5PM MST || All they needed was some more chemistry and some symmetries.

[Avs71]

I think it's all but guaranteed Landeskog scores against Washington now.

 

[S E P H]

You are having anecdotal objections to an argument supported by data that is so convincing that no reasonable person should doubt it.

Yes. He's had a bunch of shots that were bad and botched the odd 2-on-1 here and there. That doesn't change that Avs have been massively unlucky when he's on the ice.

Since 2007, among players playing 1000 minutes or more in the league (894 of them) the lowest ES on ice shooting percentage is 4.17%. The lowest Avs player is Yelle with 5.63%.

Landeskog has 3.86% over 19 games. It won't last.

What are you talking about? It's like you're skimming over my posts not even reading majority of it. I even mentioned that it will not last over the course of the season. My whole argument isn't an anecdotal approach to the data you provided, I am EXPLAINING why he has the data you provided. The difference is, you think a large chunk of his low shooting percentage so far in the early season has been accounted because of "bad luck". Lol, that is more anecdotal than not realizing he has a horrible shooting percentage because he has been complete crap offensively for the first 15 games (not even a horrible shooting percentage, all he has is 7 points in 19 games...and I explained why that might be...low junk shots and horrible puck possession after bottom 5 faceoff percentage).

 

[Freudian]

What are you talking about? It's like you're skimming over my posts not even reading majority of it. I even mentioned that it will not last over the course of the season. My whole argument isn't an anecdotal approach to the data you provided, I am EXPLAINING why he has the data you provided. The difference is, you think a large chunk of his low shooting percentage so far in the early season has been accounted because of "bad luck". Lol, that is more anecdotal than not realizing he has a horrible shooting percentage because he has been complete crap offensively for the first 15 games.

That's my point. You feel his 3.86% on ice shooting is explained by your observations of how he's played and the only conclusion I can draw from that is that you don't understand the data and how extreme it is.

No player in the history of the league plays in a way that result in such a low success rate on shots for his team. Landeskog didn't start playing in such as way that all he and his teammates are 40% as likely to score on a shot as they have been previously in his career.

A player can play worse than he has in the past and be massively unlucky at the same time.

 

[S E P H]

That's my point. You feel his 3.86% on ice shooting is explained by your observations of how he's played and the only conclusion I can draw from that is that you don't understand the data and how extreme it is.

No player in the history of the league plays in a way that result in such a low success rate on shots for his team. Landeskog didn't start playing in such as way that all he and his teammates are 40% as likely to score on a shot as they have been previously in his career.

A player can play worse than he has in the past and be massively unlucky at the same time.

Not myself, majority of Avs fanbase here think his compete level and game offensively has been below par in the first 15 games via observations. Personally I cannot speak for other Avs fans, but based on my observation

- No data can back this up, but Landeskog has to be one of top 5 Avs players for a 2v1 rushes so far this season and scored on practically zero of them (majority of them hit the glass).

- He hasn't gone to any of the dirty areas in previous games compared to last season.

- He hasn't driven to the net compared to last season.

- Majority of all forwards have lost majority of puck battles, INCLUDING him. You have said it yourself.

- He has been nonexistent on the PP. Not all of it is his fault, but he definitely deserves blame considering he is one of the teams best offensive players.

- His low junk shots, this season have been covered by goalkeepers much more than in previous seasons. Normally he would shoot for rebounds, now he has been shooting more at weak sides and goalers chests. Having these shots covered by the goalkeepers will kill any offensive potential. Then include Avs horrible puck possession numbers and faceoff percentage. This explains why Avs have had such little scoring chances, INCLUDING Landeskog.

- Defensively I think he as been fantastic, and explains why opposing teams are not scoring on Varlamov/Berra when his line is on the ice.


In my opinion these observations BACK UP why he has had low shooting percentage (because he has played like crap). Call it physics, call it bad luck, but going back to Duchene's quote "players make their own luck". When Landeksog starts competing and giving 100% every shift (as he has done the last three games) the goals, bounces, and "luck" will start coming, which will ultimately raise his unsustainable low percentage.

 

[avsfan09]

Agree with seph. Landy has a lot more to give. It could be from lack of confidence/over thinking but at a certain point you just have to will through those time with extra effort.

That's why people have no issue with Duchene this year even though it's been subpar with a good game mixed in here and there.

I still believe in Landeskog but he needs to play better enough said. If he and O'Reilly turn it around so does this team.

 

[Freudian]

I'm not arguing that Landeskog is playing well. I don't think he's been as bad as some others here but he should play better. But even Landeskog having his worst game in his NHL career repeated 19 times would most likely not result in such bad numbers for him and Avs players on the ice at the same time as him. I'm not sure a Worrell/Koci/Arnason line would result in this low on-ice shooting.

The numbers are so extreme the only reasonable explanation is that he's on the extreme negative side of randomness. I can't explain it any clearer than I have. If you have no use for the data, I hope other posters find it interesting.

We'll just have to agree to disagree here.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I appreciate the numbers because I see what you are trying to say with them. I don't love PDO as a stat because I do believe the talent level and level of play explains for higher shooting and save % but it's like a guy who is shooting well below his career %, it won't last.

 

[avsfan09]

The issue I have with landy this year is how easy he seems to lose puck battles. We all know how strong he is and when he's on he's incredibly solid on the puck.

Now whether he's nursing an injury or lack of confidence he needs to turn this aspect around. When he gets knocked off the puck as easily as he has lately it looks a bit like lack of effort which is what I think a lot of fans are seeing.

 

[dahrougem2]

The issue I have with landy this year is how easy he seems to lose puck battles. We all know how strong he is and when he's on he's incredibly solid on the puck.

Now whether he's nursing an injury or lack of confidence he needs to turn this aspect around. When he gets knocked off the puck as easily as he has lately it looks a bit like lack of effort which is what I think a lot of fans are seeing.

That's the thing. Eventually low shooting % will turn around, especially at his low rate. But effort is something he can directly control, and it's so infuriating when you watch him have shifts like the one vs NJ on Mitchell's goal, how he dominates, then the majority of the game he looks lazy and doesn't compete nearly as hard.

And before somebody says it's not possible to compete like that night in and night out all the time, just take a look at Zach Parise and how hard he works and battles every shift. Landeskog needs to show more of an effort in his battles. I was impressed with his NJ game though. Got pissed off with Elias and made him pay that shift, then annihilated Zajac? behind the net when the Avs couldn't get the puck back. That's the Landy I want

 

[ABasin]

- His low junk shots, this season have been covered by goalkeepers much more than in previous seasons. Normally he would shoot for rebounds, now he has been shooting more at weak sides and goalers chests. Having these shots covered by the goalkeepers will kill any offensive potential. Then include Avs horrible puck possession numbers and faceoff percentage. This explains why Avs have had such little scoring chances, INCLUDING Landeskog.

IMO, this explains Freudian's percentage stat more than anything else.

I'm open to the idea of streaks of good luck (and bad), but this season Landeskog seems to take the 'shoot immediately after crossing the blue line' option an awful lot of the time, regardless of where his teammates are on the ice. It's like he thinks he's skating 1-on-4 every time he enters the offensive zone or something. He's ponied up a lot of unscreened 40-50 foot shots into opposing goaltenders' chests so far this season. Not too many of those are going to go in.

 

[dahrougem2]

IMO, this explains Freudian's percentage stat more than anything else.

I'm open to the idea of streaks of good luck (and bad), but this season Landeskog seems to take the 'shoot immediately after crossing the blue line' option an awful lot of the time, regardless of where his teammates are on the ice. It's like he thinks he's skating 1-on-4 every time he enters the offensive zone or something. He's ponied up a lot of 40-50 foot shots into opposing goaltenders' chests so far this season. Not too many of those are going to go in.

This is both Landeskog's and MacKinnon's problem this season, and a reason why I think they were split up. MacK seems to want to go 1v5 when he's on the ice and has the puck. Meanwhile, Landeskog is thinking "shoot" immediately, regardless of where his teammates are on the ice. Both need to change their game. I don't mind shots on net, but they need to have a purpose, not just shoot for the sake of shooting from the blue-line 1v3

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

I cant speak for everyone else, but I've been excluding Duchene from my lists because he gives an effort night after night. Same reason I have a lot of love for EJ, Mitchell, Everberg and Tanguay. Duchene definitely needs to be less careless with the puck and we could hope for some more production but at least he's giving it his all.

He only gives his all with the puck. Examples that have led to goals for the other team:

That 4 on 4 goal the rangers got, first he is slow in reacting to the turnover ( he should have started heading up ice as soon as the puck went by RoR instead of waiting till they actually got the puck) then doesn't bust ass to get down the ice and basically stopped moving his legs at the blueline.

Against Anaheim Lando turns the puck over behind the net and Duchene just watches a guy come in from the blueline for a wide open score. He saw the guy, but still just let him right into a great scoring area.

Against Florida he lets his man get by him at our blueline then slowly goes back through the neutral zone allowing a 4 on 2 (Iggy was beat down the ice from behind the net by a faster player) for a score. He needed to put on the burners a soon as his man got by him, but instead he just gave up on the play hoping Varly and the Dmen to bail him out.

That goal that Subban got where Barrie fell down and he was out front all alone with Pickard. Duchene made a lazy effort to get down the ice. He might have been able to at least hurry Subban if he was busting ass to try and help out. Iggy wasn't to far off and they took off down ice from basically the same spot.

And that's just plays that have led to goals. And it's not just defense either. Lando and RoR get crap for puck battles, but Duchene hasn't been any better. He isn't really willing to get heavily involved unless he can win a race to the puck. But he typically stays away from the physical aspect. Usually just waits for a teammate to do the dirty work and he tries to clean up the puck.

Again agree to disagree. ROR has looked like a vastly worse player than he has at any point before for us in my eyes. He's been awful in puck battles, and even his patented takeaways haven't worked cause he's giving the puck right back or dumping it in with no one flying after it.

I love watching ROR play when he's himself, even if the production isn't there and he's sloppy with the puck. But this year he hasn't even been good without the puck, and that is frustrating and a huge difference. If the only problem was bad puck luck, or sloppy passing I wouldn't mind, but that's not the end of his struggles.

Are you seriously disagreeing with the idea that there is a difference between looking like yourself and being terrible? Dude, there is a huge area in between. 3 points off the team lead and one of the most sound defenders on the team. That's not terrible. You are just disappointed based on what you would like to see and letting that emotion effect your opinion. He has had more of a positive outcome on the score than negative. That's "average" at worst, not terrible.

Everybody but Everberg has been awful in puck battles, until recently when we have been winning them quite a bit, including RoR.. It was the system. It's hard to win puck battles when you are constantly playing off your man and just staying between him and the net and the opposition is typically the first to the puck, and then we would even typically get outmanned in the battle while our support would just stand there hoping the puck popped their way. But now that we are in better position to actually make it a battle and we are not being outmanned most of the time we are winning more.

Define "without the puck". His defense has only led to 2 goals. That's pretty damn good play without the puck. He is still one of the top steal leaders in the league. His Corsi is one of the best on the team, though who knows how accurate that is. If he hasn't been good without the puck, well then that could be said for everyone on the team.

 

[ABasin]

You are having anecdotal objections to an argument supported by data that is so convincing that no reasonable person should doubt it.

Yes. He's had a bunch of shots that were bad and botched the odd 2-on-1 here and there. That doesn't change that Avs have been massively unlucky when he's on the ice.

Since 2007, among players playing 1000 minutes or more in the league (894 of them) the lowest ES on ice shooting percentage is 4.17%. The lowest Avs player is Yelle with 5.63%.

Landeskog has 3.86% over 19 games. It won't last.

Freudian, are you sure that's correct? You're usually pretty good with stats, and when you post them, I generally take them at face value. But it sure seems to me that there would be an awful lot of defensemen who would be shooting at a lower ES% than that.

Three questions:

- Are the 894 players you're referring to just forwards?
- Are the 1,000 minutes ES minutes, or overall minutes?
- Would you please share the URL where you got this data?

 

[Freudian]

Freudian, are you sure that's correct? You're usually pretty good with stats, and when you post them, I generally take them at face value. But it sure seems to me that there would be an awful lot of defensemen who would be shooting at a lower ES% than that.

Three questions:

- Are the 894 players you're referring to just forwards?
- Are the 1,000 minutes ES minutes, or overall minutes?
- Would you please share the URL where you got this data?

On-ice shooting percentage is not individual shooting percentage. It's the combined shooting percentage all five players. Every time an Avs player take a shot when Landeskog is on the ice, it affects his on ice shooting percentage.

Defenders don't have lower ES on-ice shooting than forwards because the forwards shooting is included for defenders and defenders shooting is included in forwards on ice shooting.

Here is the data.

 

[ABasin]

On-ice shooting percentage is not individual shooting percentage. It's the combined shooting percentage all five players. Every time an Avs player take a shot when Landeskog is on the ice, it affects his on ice shooting percentage.

Defenders don't have lower ES on-ice shooting than forwards because the forwards shooting is included for defenders and defenders shooting is included in forwards on ice shooting.

Here is the data.

Ah, I see. Thank you. Had me scratching my head there for a minute.

 

[Hesher]

Finally managed to watch the game. It was good to see the team not collapse after the Devils took the lead in the third.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Finally managed to watch the game. It was good to see the team not collapse after the Devils took the lead in the third.

They didnt collapse against the Rangers aswell. They blew the lead but ultimately came back to win. Progress.