ATD Chat Thread XVIII

[ResilientBeast]

You can have all the education, but no one can give you common sense. These are historical figures who had an actual height/weight. They are not video game characters that can be adjusted. VsX? There are no outliers in hockey stats. Just take their top 10 scoring finishes and average them. This is same group that cowardly accepted for years that elite goal tending such as Patrick Roy doesn't matter in the playoffs, totally ignoring win probability and hockey history.

Give me 24 good common sense men and no one would even think of all this foolish nonsense.

This doesn't make any sense since being in 2nd place 1 point behind someone in scoring would be treated the same as being 15

 

[tinyzombies]

You can have all the education, but no one can give you common sense. These are historical figures who had an actual height/weight. They are not video game characters that can be adjusted. VsX? There are no outliers in hockey stats. Just take their top 10 scoring finishes and average them. This is same group that cowardly accepted for years that elite goal tending such as Patrick Roy doesn't matter in the playoffs, totally ignoring win probability and hockey history.

Give me 24 good common sense men and no one would even think of all this foolish nonsense.

Those seem to be contradictory statements. You want to measure the real Cyclone Taylor to Connor McDavid, but you don't want to measure Patrick Roy directly to Price or Hellebuyck or Gibson or Vasilevski?

 

[tinyzombies]

Maybe we don't appreciate how hard it was to put up points back in the day. It took more than a nose for the net.

 

[Johnny Engine]

Kris Russell was +1 in that 3 game series against the Leafs, and that's kind of amazing.

 

[ResilientBeast]

Kris Russell was +1 in that 3 game series against the Leafs, and that's kind of amazing.

GOAT

 

[Professor What]

When is the assassination thread going to kickoff?

 

[ResilientBeast]

When is the assassination thread going to kickoff?

I think @ImporterExporter said tomorrow?

 

[Professor What]

I think @ImporterExporter said tomorrow?

I'm looking forward to that. It looks like an interesting part of the process to me.

 

[ResilientBeast]

I'm looking forward to that. It looks like an interesting part of the process to me.

Interesting. I'm a draft junkie so drafting is my preferred part of this process.

 

[Professor What]

Interesting. I'm a draft junkie so drafting is my preferred part of this process.

I don't imagine anything will be at the same level of the drafting part, but the idea of people commenting on others' rosters in a legitimate attempt to optimize them, knowing they're likely going to pick those same rosters apart is an interesting concept to me. It seems like the nature of the competition part of the process is that to make it the best it can be, you literally have to try to have it both ways, and I'm looking forward to seeing that play out while I'm involved, as opposed to simply reading past threads.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I think @ImporterExporter said tomorrow?

I can get it up tonight

 

[Professor What]

I can get it up tonight

Even better. Lol

 

[ImporterExporter]

I'm looking forward to that. It looks like an interesting part of the process to me.

It used to be a more popular part of the process.

But I think the ATD on the whole has become more casual and been around so long that a lot of the potential discussion has been had in one shape or another.

We still usually review any team that posts in the thread at least once. It's good to get the 2nd and 3rd opinions from outside perspective.

 

[The Macho King]

I don't imagine anything will be at the same level of the drafting part, but the idea of people commenting on others' rosters in a legitimate attempt to optimize them, knowing they're likely going to pick those same rosters apart is an interesting concept to me. It seems like the nature of the competition part of the process is that to make it the best it can be, you literally have to try to have it both ways, and I'm looking forward to seeing that play out while I'm involved, as opposed to simply reading past threads.

A good assassination takes time, but it's fun. Probably my favorite part of the process.

 

[ChiTownPhilly]

Let the record reflect that today (Saturday, 6 March 2021, @ 13 hours, 35 minutes UTC), the ATD 2021 Foster Hewitt Division is just a @Leaf Lander away from being the first with PERFECT ATTENDANCE in the Assassination Thread.

In fact, the entire Fisher Conference is just missing him and Hawkey Town 18!

Come on, Leaf Lander!! Let's be First Past the Post, and show everyone else how it's done!

 

[VanIslander]

Why i'll never draft Karlsson was demonstrated last game:

The guy who scored two of the three goals against you tonight (Tuch) is barreling down on you as you, a DEFENSEman are carrying the puck over your blueline. You could pass. Your dman partner is open. But no. You decide to carry the rock past the other team's red hot forward and - surprise surprise, the guy takes the puck cleanly from you and gets a clear hat trick opportunity.

Karlsson has a career full of such foolish moves. He should be seen as more Housley and less Orr.

 

[The Macho King]

Seems odd to point out a post-prime player is bad now, but okay.

The thing is - five years ago he probably beats that forward. Longevity as an elite player will likely be a knock on him, but the player he is now isn't the player he was then.

Also I'll assume Orr probably turned over the puck at least once in his career.

 

[VanIslander]

1. Karlsson was still making risky moves when he was 25.

2. I wasn't born yesterday. As a Sharks fan I have had to watch him clearly be the 2nd best defenseman (third if you give Vlasic credit for, well, playing defense) yet suck the highest salary on the cap-ceiling club.

 

[The Macho King]

1. Karlsson was still making risky moves when he was 25.

2. I wasn't born yesterday. As a Sharks fan I have had to watch him clearly be the 2nd best defenseman (third if you give Vlasic credit for, well, playing defense) yet suck the highest salary on the cap-ceiling club.

To point 1 - yeah and they were working when he was 25. That's the difference - his brain hasn't caught up that his game needs to change.

I'm critical of Karlsson but you can't backdate his performances because he sucks now.

And no one is saying his contract isn't terrible and that he's playing bad now. I just don't see how that's relevant to how he was viewed before.

 

[Johnny Engine]

Wouldn't the optimistic comparison for Karlsson be Paul Coffey? Why bother comparing almost anybody to Orr? Have we found someone who wants to argue for Karlsson as a top 2, or top 5 or even top 10 D? No? Why bother then?

Some Karlsson/Coffey bullet points:
- Coffey stopped putting up points at 35, Karlsson may have lost his magic at 30.
- Coffey was first traded at age 26, started getting really punted around the league at 30. Karlsson was first traded at 28 but hasn't become a hot potato yet.
- Both carried a negative defensive reputation through their entire careers, with the occasional heroic moments (Coffey's Canada Cup poke check, Karlsson's shot-blocking rampage in the 2017 playoffs)
- Karlsson has been a positive CF% player up until this year, RAPM pegs him as league average at preventing goals against. No such models exist for Coffey's career.
- Coffey's 7-year VsX is about 14 points higher than Karlsson's, which of course reflects changing roles for defensemen, playing on better teams, and playing with Gretzky and Lemieux.
- Coffey has an extra Norris and 4 extra 2nd-team All Star nods.

Without getting deep into quotes and tape, Coffey's had the better career and has been the more valuable player, but they're surely closer to each other than Bobby freaking Orr. I don't think Phil Housley would show as well in the above comparison at all.

 

[Professor What]

Wouldn't the optimistic comparison for Karlsson be Paul Coffey? Why bother comparing almost anybody to Orr? Have we found someone who wants to argue for Karlsson as a top 2, or top 5 or even top 10 D? No? Why bother then?

Some Karlsson/Coffey bullet points:
- Coffey stopped putting up points at 35, Karlsson may have lost his magic at 30.
- Coffey was first traded at age 26, started getting really punted around the league at 30. Karlsson was first traded at 28 but hasn't become a hot potato yet.
- Both carried a negative defensive reputation through their entire careers, with the occasional heroic moments (Coffey's Canada Cup poke check, Karlsson's shot-blocking rampage in the 2017 playoffs)
- Karlsson has been a positive CF% player up until this year, RAPM pegs him as league average at preventing goals against. No such models exist for Coffey's career.
- Coffey's 7-year VsX is about 14 points higher than Karlsson's, which of course reflects changing roles for defensemen, playing on better teams, and playing with Gretzky and Lemieux.
- Coffey has an extra Norris and 4 extra 2nd-team All Star nods.

Without getting deep into quotes and tape, Coffey's had the better career and has been the more valuable player, but they're surely closer to each other than Bobby freaking Orr. I don't think Phil Housley would show as well in the above comparison at all.

I think the biggest advantage Coffey has is longevity. It could easily be argued (I do) that both should have more Norrises than they do. I'd give Karlsson four and Coffey either four or five. I also think Coffey should have a Hart on his mantle. Although, to be fair, I don't think Karlsson ever got the Hart recognition he deserved. He was on some reasonably competitive teams that would have been garbage without him. If that's not a Hart candidate's resume, I don't know what is. So, I'd say both are underrated on awards, though I'll acknowledge that Coffey should still be credited an advantage, as he was good for long enough to keep picking up all star selections.

Both are among the elite offensive defensemen the league has ever seen. Coffey was boosted by the teams he played on, no doubt, but it's also worth noting that he led the 1994-95 Red Wings in scoring, so I can't chalk it up completely to teammates, and I don't think it should be. Karlsson has the distinction of leading the league in assists, something that only Bobby Orr and Harry Cameron had previously done as defensemen, and with the style of the game in Cameron's era, that's a serious apples to oranges comparison. He also managed a top five league scoring finish on a team that he didn't have a lot of support on. Thus, bring Coffey down a little, and lift Karlsson a little. Still, Coffey's overall offensive game was so unworldly that I'm still going to say he's got an advantage, especially when looking at his incredible goal scoring exploits.

I'd give Karlsson a defensive advantage. One thing I don't think is fair about people saying he's bad defensively is that he was asked to take an all-out offensive role for so many years, and even then, he wasn't total dead weight in his own end. When he was asked to play more defensively, he did so very well, while not sacrificing much offense, and the result was a team that got way closer to a Cup than they probably ever should have. I think that if earlier coaches had really considered Karlsson's skating ability and his ability to get up and down the ice so well and asked him for a more two-way game, the narrative on him would be far different.

So, then it comes back to longevity. As things stand, that's why several guys sit ahead of Karlsson. If he were still anywhere near his peak level (i.e., had a more normal career arc and decline), he'd still be steadily climbing the ranks. He's not so old that he can't have an offensive resurgence, but I think a career recovery would be more likely to come as the result of a reinvention. Let's see what he could do in a more solidly defensive role. Then, we'd have a once and for all answer about that aspect of his game, and I think that, in the right situations (which I don't believe is San Jose), and well utilized, we could see a strong defensive Karlsson that still gives decent offensive contributions. The question is, will anyone be willing to try it?

 

[Johnny Engine]

Housley, for good measure:
- stopped putting up tons of points at 36
- first traded at 26, no more than a 3 season stay anywhere after that
- the mother of all negative defensive reputations
- no fancy stats
- 7 year VsX is about as far behind Karlsson as Karlsson is behind Coffey
- Just the one SAST

 

[Professor What]

Housley, for good measure:
- stopped putting up tons of points at 36
- first traded at 26, no more than a 3 season stay anywhere after that
- the mother of all negative defensive reputations
- no fancy stats
- 7 year VsX is about as far behind Karlsson as Karlsson is behind Coffey
- Just the one SAST

He's the very definition of a one-sided game (offense vs defense). Maybe Burns is comparable in that aspect? I love the offense, but I'd want a Rod Langway next to him.

 

[seventieslord]

In discussing the three ongoing ironman streaks and their chances of breaking the record, I suggested that Patrick Marleau's playing ability may be what finally ends his streak. VanIslander scoffed at the notion.

But..... just look at him.

You can win the race against father time here and there, but that bastard will always win the marathon.

Funny thing is, San Jose is so terrible and seemingly not interested in winning games anytime soon, plus they're loyal and sentimental to a fault, so I wouldn't put the idea of playing Marleau every game through this season and next past them. They just might do it.

 

[The Macho King]

In discussing the three ongoing ironman streaks and their chances of breaking the record, I suggested that Patrick Marleau's playing ability may be what finally ends his streak. VanIslander scoffed at the notion.

But..... just look at him.

You can win the race against father time here and there, but that bastard will always win the marathon.

Funny thing is, San Jose is so terrible and seemingly not interested in winning games anytime soon, plus they're loyal and sentimental to a fault, so I wouldn't put the idea of playing Marleau every game through this season and next past them. They just might do it.

I assumed that was the goal for the season. Was playoffs ever really in the cards with Martin Jones and Devan Dubnyk?