Around the NHL XXXVIII

[Super Cake]

So Binnington has one good season and he is already a top 10 goalie?

What kind of drugs is NHL.com on?

#NHLTopPlayers: Top 10 Goalies

Here is a question, what do most of those goalies in the top ten besides one have in common?

A history of good play.

What does Binnington have? One good season.

I would have put even Andersen ahead of him.

f***ing recency bias in full effect here.

 

[toivy]

Just came across the NHL's fantasy forwards points projection: Fantasy forward point projections for 2019-20.

They're predicting that only three Senators crack 40 points this season (Brady at 62, White at 48, and Batherson at 40).

 

[BondraTime]

Just came across the NHL's fantasy forwards points projection: Fantasy forward point projections for 2019-20.

They're predicting that only three Senators crack 40 points this season (Brady at 62, White at 48, and Batherson at 40).

That looks about right, outside of Chabot who should be ~50. Probably have Tkachuk around 50/55

 

[toivy]

That looks about right, outside of Chabot who should be ~50. Probably have Tkachuk around 50/55

It's gonna be a looooong season...

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

It's gonna be a looooong season...

At least we have our lottery pick this time, so following the tank will bring some mild excitement unlike last year.

 

[Boud]

Just came across the NHL's fantasy forwards points projection: Fantasy forward point projections for 2019-20.

They're predicting that only three Senators crack 40 points this season (Brady at 62, White at 48, and Batherson at 40).

I'd be surprised if none of Tierney, Pageau or Anisimov hit 40 as well.

 

[JungleBeat]

I’d definitely trade for Puljujarvi. Let him spend the year in Finland and bring him over next year full time. Sens are weak down the RW after Batherson and Puljujarvi’s upside is worth it.

 

[JD1]

I'd be surprised if none of Tierney, Pageau or Anisimov hit 40 as well.

I find some of those lists show a bias...all the Toronto players will do well and all the Montreal players will have off years kind of thing

I agree with you on the 3 centers, one of them is north of 40. There is a lot of ice time available and someone will score. I wouldn't be surprised to see Duclair go 40+ and someone come from off the radar and do it too. Balcers maybe

 

[Qward]

I’d definitely trade for Puljujarvi. Let him spend the year in Finland and bring him over next year full time. Sens are weak down the RW after Batherson and Puljujarvi’s upside is worth it.

Could you imagine in a couple years

Lafreniere/White/Batherson
Tkachuk/Brown/Puljujarvi

 

[Samsquanch]

Hockey news just rated him 17th in the world. The poster you referenced is clearly analytics driven where Stone is a top 5 player. With these types of ratings he is an MVP level player. He showed in the playoffs what he is capable of, playing on a really good team with really good players. He was the best player in the first round. Had he ever been utilised for anything more in Ottawa than carrying a line of 3rd line talent and second pp time we may have seen that level of play.

Back to the draft, I agree in BPA despite center being a need. The sens are two elite forwards away from being a contender assuming a good chunk of the prospects work out. I think Byfield has the highest ceiling in this draft if he reaches his max potential. If he scores 100 + points this year at 17 i think he goes # 1. Unless someone else absolutely goes off.

I think there are 3 guys with a legit shot at # 1 and another 3 that round out a very elite top 6. As long as the sens finish bottom 3 they get one of them. Very very good chance of this happening.

1st tier
Lafrennier, Raymond Byfield

2nd tier
Lundell, Holtz, Perfetti

Thats like some really badly flawed logic though......That poster might be analytics driven, but that doesnt mean you can start calling people MVPs based on a handful of advanced stats that fits your own narrative....

 

[Micklebot]

Agreed that there is clearly a huge gap between a guy who is #12 in hart voting versus a guy who is legitimately in the conversation for MVP. And while I agree that Stone went crazy in the playoffs and looked dominant, he played one round in a losing effort. Its almost always a lot easier to put up big numbers in the 1st round versus the later rounds. And he had 3 other teammates that were all over a PPG that series, so its not like he was a one man show either.

We can find dozens of star players who looked MVP worthy over a 7 game sample size, but it doesnt make them an MVP level player though. And dont forget that he was fairly invisible only 3 years ago during our own deep playoff run, so its just as easy to call what we saw from him in April an outlier.

Anyhow, I personally see Drake Batherson as the obvious Mark Stone replacement, and I dont think we are downgrading much at all either by the time that Drake hits his prime (took Stone until age 27 to do that - so hes got lots of time to get there). He doesnt need to replace an MVP level player, he needs to replace Mark Stone (ie a very very good winger).

If we get another top pick in next years draft, I feel like that player will have potential and a ceiling that Mark Stone has not (and will never) ever had. Even though it will likely be a forward that we take, I see this hypothetical new player as the "replacement Franchise player" that we lost when Karlsson left. Those are bigger shoes to fill imo then the ones that Stone left.

Idk, Stone always felt like an underappreciated player as a Sen. He is one of those guys that could elevate the games of anyone who played with him. Smith nd Pageau owe him a fair bit of credit for their current contracts.

I also think Stone getting traded at the deadline hurt his standing in terms of hart votes; he took some time to find his chemistry on VGK; had he maintained his pace with Ottawa after the trade instead of taking some time to learn a new system and develop chemistry, you have a guy pacing just shy of 40 goals and ~87 pts all while being a Selke nominated winger. Hart is always going to be won by the guys who put up gaudy pts, but how big of a gap in impact is there really between what Stone was doing for Ottawa and what Gaudreau did (who finished 4th in hart)?

I think Batherson has a long way to go before we can even consider him to be a Stone replacement. Imo, the guy we draft this year will be the one, that or perhaps Tkachuk. Batherson seems like a good stylistic comparison, but it's unfair to put the burden of replacing Stone on him...

Thats like some really badly flawed logic though......That poster might be analytics driven, but that doesnt mean you can start calling people MVPs based on a handful of advanced stats that fits your own narrative....

Having a different opinion on how to determine MVP isn't in itself flawed. I'd argue the current what it is typically framed often overvalues offense and undervalues everything else. In particular, MVP often ignore the impact you have on the line mates and focuses too narrowly on the individuals performance. Stone is up there with Karlsson, Alfredsson and Spezza in terms of making the players around him better. He`s a very special player imo, which is why I think this year's draft will be paramount in replacing his impact.

 

[Samsquanch]

Idk, Stone always felt like an underappreciated player as a Sen. He is one of those guys that could elevate the games of anyone who played with him. Smith nd Pageau owe him a fair bit of credit for their current contracts.

I also think Stone getting traded at the deadline hurt his standing in terms of hart votes; he took some time to find his chemistry on VGK; had he maintained his pace with Ottawa after the trade instead of taking some time to learn a new system and develop chemistry, you have a guy pacing just shy of 40 goals and ~87 pts all while being a Selke nominated winger. Hart is always going to be won by the guys who put up gaudy pts, but how big of a gap in impact is there really between what Stone was doing for Ottawa and what Gaudreau did (who finished 4th in hart)?

I think Batherson has a long way to go before we can even consider him to be a Stone replacement. Imo, the guy we draft this year will be the one, that or perhaps Tkachuk. Batherson seems like a good stylistic comparison, but it's unfair to put the burden of replacing Stone on him...



Having a different opinion on how to determine MVP isn't in itself flawed. I'd argue the current what it is typically framed often overvalues offense and undervalues everything else. In particular, MVP often ignore the impact you have on the line mates and focuses too narrowly on the individuals performance. Stone is up there with Karlsson, Alfredsson and Spezza in terms of making the players around him better. He`s a very special player imo, which is why I think this year's draft will be paramount in replacing his impact.

Thats my problem with Stone, we keep talking about things like pace, and somehow the idea of what Stone "could be" seems to replace the reality of what he is.

Yes he "could" have had a career year that put him in the top 20 scorers. But he didnt. He slumped for a bit during the year, just like he did every year he played for us (aside from his last), and he finished 43rd in scoring in a career year where he was set to become UFA. Thats not an MVP caliber forward, even if you thinks points are overrated and advanced stats are king.

And imo, a much better question to ask than "aside from 26pts, whats the difference between Stone and Gaudreau" would be "whats the difference between Stone and Kucherov". Hes an actual MVP - which is the caliber of player that you guys are saying he deserves to hang with. And the unbiased reality is that there is a canyon sized gap between the true MVP, and the guy voted 12th.

 

[Agent Zub]

It's easy to overrated Stone because he just does everything right. But he simply doesn't have the game breaking offensive ability to be a league MVP player.

I love Stone but individual defensive play is sort of overrated on these forums.

What matters is how the team plays defence as a whole. That's what wins games, and no one player can make a team good defensively.

 

[Micklebot]

Thats my problem with Stone, we keep talking about things like pace, and somehow the idea of what Stone "could be" seems to replace the reality of what he is.

Yes he "could" have had a career year that put him in the top 20 scorers. But he didnt. He slumped for a bit during the year, just like he did every year he played for us (aside from his last), and he finished 43rd in scoring in a career year where he was set to become UFA. Thats not an MVP caliber forward, even if you thinks points are overrated and advanced stats are king.

And imo, a much better question to ask than "aside from 26pts, whats the difference between Stone and Gaudreau" would be "whats the difference between Stone and Kucherov". Hes an actual MVP - which is the caliber of player that you guys are saying he deserves to hang with. And the unbiased reality is that there is a canyon sized gap between the true MVP, and the guy voted 12th.

Well, what he was for the entire time he was a Sen last year was exactly that, a top 20 scorer that was providing selke defense. That's what we have to replace, not the player that looked to find chemistry and learn a new system in Vegas. We have to replace the guy that got Smith 25+ goals and a big contract, we have to replace the guy that elevated Pageau to 40+ pts in a contract year, we have to replace the guy that consistently drove possession on a terrible possession team, the guy that was constantly leading the league in takeaways. We have to replace 48 goals, 124 pts, and 147 takeaways in his last 117 games with us.

 

[bert]

Thats like some really badly flawed logic though......That poster might be analytics driven, but that doesnt mean you can start calling people MVPs based on a handful of advanced stats that fits your own narrative....

I think the rest of the post described in pretty strong detail why he can play at an MVP level caliber. I dont know how you can call it flawed logic when you actually dont use the logic I used to set for the argument. You isolated one point without taking the rest into context.

 

[Samsquanch]

Well, what he was for the entire time he was a Sen last year was exactly that, a top 20 scorer that was providing selke defense. That's what we have to replace, not the player that looked to find chemistry and learn a new system in Vegas. We have to replace the guy that got Smith 25+ goals and a big contract, we have to replace the guy that elevated Pageau to 40+ pts in a contract year, we have to replace the guy that consistently drove possession on a terrible possession team, the guy that was constantly leading the league in takeaways. We have to replace 48 goals, 124 pts, and 147 takeaways in his last 117 games with us.

I agree that he needs to be replaced? Are we talking about different things now?

Im saying that hes not an MVP caliber forward, and yourself and Bert seem to be doing everything in your power to avoid agreeing with that statement.

He was a great player, we all can agree on that. But Im drawing a hard line in the sand when you guys get silly and start saying hes an MVP - by some mterics...? I dont even get your point tbh.

 

[DaveMatthew]

I agree that he needs to be replaced? Are we talking about different things now?

Im saying that hes not an MVP caliber forward, and yourself and Bert seem to be doing everything in your power to avoid agreeing with that statement.

He was a great player, we all can agree on that. But Im drawing a hard line in the sand when you guys get silly and start saying hes an MVP - by some mterics...? I dont even get your point tbh.

It depends what you mean by MVP caliber player.

Do you consider Ryan O’Reilly one? He just won playoffs MVP, and Mark Stone can certainly have that same type of impact on his team.

Or are you just considering regular season awards, which are basically based on points? Because there’s an argument to be made that despite stats, O’Reilly/Stone are more valuable when it really matters than Kucherov...

 

[stempniaksen]

I agree that he needs to be replaced? Are we talking about different things now?

Im saying that hes not an MVP caliber forward, and yourself and Bert seem to be doing everything in your power to avoid agreeing with that statement.

He was a great player, we all can agree on that. But Im drawing a hard line in the sand when you guys get silly and start saying hes an MVP - by some mterics...? I dont even get your point tbh.

He was 12th in MVP voting. Calling him an MVP level forward is probably more in-line with reality than saying he can be replaced by Drake Batherson (regardless of how many years Drake has to get there).

 

[JonnyMacSen]

Lets not forget this...



Team Canada wins silver at IIHF World Hockey Championship, Stone named tournament MVP

 

[Samsquanch]

LMAO ok guys you win. Have fun crying yourselves to sleep about losing our former MVP, Mark Stone...

All kidding aside, I really do hope you guys are able to get over it some day. For the sake of everyone else here.

 

[DaveMatthew]

LMAO ok guys you win. Have fun crying yourselves to sleep about losing our former MVP, Mark Stone...

All kidding aside, I really do hope you guys are able to get over it some day. For the sake of everyone else here.

Whenever Mark Stone is brought up, we'll always talk about what awful decision letting him go was. It's okay to call a spade a spade!

He'll probably go on to have a Chara like career too, with a couple Stanley Cups.

 

[Samsquanch]

It depends what you mean by MVP caliber player.

Do you consider Ryan O’Reilly one? He just won playoffs MVP, and Mark Stone can certainly have that same type of impact on his team.

Or are you just considering regular season awards, which are basically based on points? Because there’s an argument to be made that despite stats, O’Reilly/Stone are more valuable when it really matters than Kucherov...

Kucherov has been totally deadly in the playoffs - your lost son. 65gp / 61pts. Go ahead and believe what you just posted, but its horribly wrong.

 

[Micklebot]

It's easy to overrated Stone because he just does everything right. But he simply doesn't have the game breaking offensive ability to be a league MVP player.

I love Stone but individual defensive play is sort of overrated on these forums.

What matters is how the team plays defence as a whole. That's what wins games, and no one player can make a team good defensively.

This is so backwards... It's not easy to overvalue guys that do everything right, it's easy to overvalue guys that just put up pts.
I mean, in terms of getting votes from the lazy PHWA, sure. But in terms of actually being discussed as one of the best players, the players who have the greatest impact on wins and loses in the game? Toews and Bergeron never put up gaudy offensive numbers, but they were absolutely in the discussion for the top players in the league. They are guys

Idk that Stone is quite there, but he's on the cusp imo. That's why he got hart votes despite a late season slump as he adjusted to a new team. He's the kind of player that will be the best player on his team on all but a handful of teams. Stone gives you the type of play that won Toews the Smythe in 09-10. You are right that he probably won't put up the numbers of a McDavid or Kucherov last year, but what makes him special is that his impact goes beyond just pts.

 

[TkachukNorris79]

Kucherov has been totally deadly in the playoffs - your lost son. 65gp / 61pts. Go ahead and believe what you just posted, but its horribly wrong.

The easy answer is that it's not all about points. The best player in the playoffs wasn't even a PPG in either the regular season or playoffs, but he made the biggest impact out of all skaters.

 

[Samsquanch]

You are right that he probably won't put up the numbers of a McDavid or Kucherov last year, but what makes him special is that his impact goes beyond just pts.

SO why dont these two guys deserve credit for the entire opposing team being FORCED to tailor their game plan around shutting down these players? They are the focus of every teams #1 defensive unit - simply because they are so damn good at hockey.

Do you not account for all of the extra ice an opportunites that this opens up for their teammates. Like Brayden Point or RNH?

Is that not a pretty special quality? Because I think it is, and Im pretty sure thats why these guys are unanimously considered the best forwards in the game. And why Mark Stone at his very best is, at best, on the outside of the cusp in that discussion.