Around The NHL Discussion 2019/20 - Part III

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TaffyPool

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He didn't score, but Nathan Mackinnon just absolutely turnsytled Getzlaf in OT. Allen Iverson level juke. Was really sick.

That would’ve been a dang-it (or a hat pick?) for sure, if MacKinnon had scored. Great move.
 

Stupendous Yappi

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That Western WC race is nuts. Chicago is not really dead yet, with a couple games in hand. Depending if you give them a realistic chance, there are 5 or 6 teams that are in realistic striking distance for the 2nd WC.
 

DannyDarko

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Jan 11, 2020
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hypothetically speaking if colorado played tonight and won they would jump in front of us due to RW's correct?
 

Stupendous Yappi

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hypothetically speaking if colorado played tonight and won they would jump in front of us due to RW's correct?
Yes, because for the first time in a long while both teams will have played the same number of games (in your hypothetical scenario). For those not paying attention, note that the Avs do not play tonight, and the games-played discrepancy will continue for a while.

‘The Blues are 2 points ahead, have played one game more than Colorado, and the Avs have the tie-breaker by a large margin that is unlikely to change before the end of the season.
 

DannyDarko

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Yes, because for the first time in a long while both teams will have played the same number of games (in your hypothetical scenario). For those not paying attention, note that the Avs do not play tonight, and the games-played discrepancy will continue for a while.

‘The Blues are 2 points ahead, have played one game more than Colorado, and the Avs have the tie-breaker by a large margin that is unlikely to change before the end of the season.
Thats what I thought but wanted to clarify. I know they don't draw even in games for another couple of weeks.
 
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Ted Hoffman

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Obviously, the solution to all of this is to create a chain e-mail that's of the FORWARD THIS TO 10 OF YOUR FRIENDS BY MIDNIGHT AND YOU'LL BE PROTECTED FROM THE CORONAVIRUS, I KNOW SOMEONE WHO DIDN'T AND THEY DIED WITHIN 5 HOURS! variety, complete with a header from the Coronavirus Control Center and so on.
 
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mk80

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Obviously, the solution to all of this is to create a chain e-mail that's of the FORWARD THIS TO 10 OF YOUR FRIENDS BY MIDNIGHT AND YOU'LL BE PROTECTED FROM THE CORONAVIRUS, I KNOW SOMEONE WHO DIDN'T AND THEY DIED WITHIN 5 HOURS! variety, complete with a header from the Coronavirus Control Center and so on.

I've deleted every one that I've got. We'll see if Karma catches me this time :help:

Anyway I don't want to derail this thread with Coronavirus talk, but just figured I'd share that previous article.
 

Ted Hoffman

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Anyway I don't want to derail this thread with Coronavirus talk, but just figured I'd share that previous article.
True, but I get the feeling like it or not that topic will come up again semi-soon. (I think I've expressed my thoughts on this elsewhere; if not and anyone is really interested I can drop $0.02 on it again.)
 

Ted Hoffman

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I missed it. Genuinely curious what you think.
I think we're at mass hysteria levels of concern with COV-19 and it's going to get worse. (Political aspect of this omitted.) Not that I don't think there's concern warranted - there is, we should be taking precautions to prevent the spread of it just like we would influenza, polio, rabies, etc. But the way people are emptying shelves of toilet paper, paper towels and cleaning supplies you'd think we're all going to be quarantined for months on end and cleaning the hell out of everything else is the only way to protect oneself. If this were happening in December or January, people might as well be stocking up on milk, bread and eggs too like it was a major winter blizzard that's going to cripple the nation for a week.

And yes, I suspect you will start seeing irrational runs on food soon. Not that people have room to store all that food, but they're going to get it for fear of not being able to get it later and hearing someone say that they knew someone who knew someone .... who heard there was an impending food shortage and to stock up now.

This isn't SARS, it's not Ebola, it's not the Andromeda Strain or the Red Flu. Let's keep some perspective right now and take reasonable precautions, not go hyperbolic and off the deep end.
 

Stupendous Yappi

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I think we're at mass hysteria levels of concern with COV-19 and it's going to get worse. (Political aspect of this omitted.) Not that I don't think there's concern warranted - there is, we should be taking precautions to prevent the spread of it just like we would influenza, polio, rabies, etc. But the way people are emptying shelves of toilet paper, paper towels and cleaning supplies you'd think we're all going to be quarantined for months on end and cleaning the hell out of everything else is the only way to protect oneself. If this were happening in December or January, people might as well be stocking up on milk, bread and eggs too like it was a major winter blizzard that's going to cripple the nation for a week.

And yes, I suspect you will start seeing irrational runs on food soon. Not that people have room to store all that food, but they're going to get it for fear of not being able to get it later and hearing someone say that they knew someone who knew someone .... who heard there was an impending food shortage and to stock up now.

This isn't SARS, it's not Ebola, it's not the Andromeda Strain or the Red Flu. Let's keep some perspective right now and take reasonable precautions, not go hyperbolic and off the deep end.
We see eye to eye. I was just curious how an actuary would view this.
 

Ted Hoffman

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We see eye to eye. I was just curious how an actuary would view this.
I have never seen fights over business interruption coverage - usually it's pretty clear, your business burned down and it's not opening for weeks so we'll pay for that until you're ready to resume operations - but I suspect insurers and policyholders are going to start reading the language in those forms to understand what kind of impact this might have on each side.
 
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Xerloris

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I think we're at mass hysteria levels of concern with COV-19 and it's going to get worse. (Political aspect of this omitted.) Not that I don't think there's concern warranted - there is, we should be taking precautions to prevent the spread of it just like we would influenza, polio, rabies, etc. But the way people are emptying shelves of toilet paper, paper towels and cleaning supplies you'd think we're all going to be quarantined for months on end and cleaning the hell out of everything else is the only way to protect oneself. If this were happening in December or January, people might as well be stocking up on milk, bread and eggs too like it was a major winter blizzard that's going to cripple the nation for a week.

And yes, I suspect you will start seeing irrational runs on food soon. Not that people have room to store all that food, but they're going to get it for fear of not being able to get it later and hearing someone say that they knew someone who knew someone .... who heard there was an impending food shortage and to stock up now.

This isn't SARS, it's not Ebola, it's not the Andromeda Strain or the Red Flu. Let's keep some perspective right now and take reasonable precautions, not go hyperbolic and off the deep end.

I'll admit I'm a bit concerned. My parents are both elderly and in poor health and my health isn't the best either with heart issues. I'm not set off into a panic however.
 

Davimir Tarablad

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I think we're at mass hysteria levels of concern with COV-19 and it's going to get worse. (Political aspect of this omitted.) Not that I don't think there's concern warranted - there is, we should be taking precautions to prevent the spread of it just like we would influenza, polio, rabies, etc. But the way people are emptying shelves of toilet paper, paper towels and cleaning supplies you'd think we're all going to be quarantined for months on end and cleaning the hell out of everything else is the only way to protect oneself. If this were happening in December or January, people might as well be stocking up on milk, bread and eggs too like it was a major winter blizzard that's going to cripple the nation for a week.

And yes, I suspect you will start seeing irrational runs on food soon. Not that people have room to store all that food, but they're going to get it for fear of not being able to get it later and hearing someone say that they knew someone who knew someone .... who heard there was an impending food shortage and to stock up now.

This isn't SARS, it's not Ebola, it's not the Andromeda Strain or the Red Flu. Let's keep some perspective right now and take reasonable precautions, not go hyperbolic and off the deep end.
The absolute worst case scenario happened with the virus hitting the nursing home in Washington. Hitting a vulnerable group in the early stages has inflated the death rate over what it might usually have, and the hysteria that's been drummed up from it is asinine.
 

MortiestOfMortys

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Idk man, this isn’t likely to be a Spanish Flu type pandemic, but a predicted 2% mortality rate is a big deal. Statistically, it’s a small percentage, but that’s A LOT of people dying from a virus that we don’t have a vaccine for. You can rely on Purell all you want, but if you’ve ever been in a car, you know that you can’t count on people watching out for their own personal safety and health, even in high-danger situations, especially when those situations are normalized. It’s even worse when most people in this country can’t afford to miss a day of work, or when their health insurance is so expensive that it doesn’t seem worth it to take off when they are exposed but asymptomatic.

Yeah, maybe this is just like a different strain of the flu, but we have massive vaccinations in this country around the most recent iteration of the flu, and we didn’t predict this one. It’s spreading really quickly, and it’s already having a big impact on global manufacturing and shipping markets from people not being able to go to work.

This is a big deal. Dismissing it because “it’s just the flu” is irresponsible, honestly. The symptoms may be similar, but we don’t have any way to help you out with it, or to keep you from getting it, and our “herd immunity” is a feeble contraceptive considering our global marketplace. I work with epidemiologists every day, and I can tell you that they are all on very high alert.
 

Frenzy31

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Idk man, this isn’t likely to be a Spanish Flu type pandemic, but a predicted 2% mortality rate is a big deal. Statistically, it’s a small percentage, but that’s A LOT of people dying from a virus that we don’t have a vaccine for. You can rely on Purell all you want, but if you’ve ever been in a car, you know that you can’t count on people watching out for their own personal safety and health, even in high-danger situations, especially when those situations are normalized. It’s even worse when most people in this country can’t afford to miss a day of work, or when their health insurance is so expensive that it doesn’t seem worth it to take off when they are exposed but asymptomatic.

Yeah, maybe this is just like a different strain of the flu, but we have massive vaccinations in this country around the most recent iteration of the flu, and we didn’t predict this one. It’s spreading really quickly, and it’s already having a big impact on global manufacturing and shipping markets from people not being able to go to work.

This is a big deal. Dismissing it because “it’s just the flu” is irresponsible, honestly. The symptoms may be similar, but we don’t have any way to help you out with it, or to keep you from getting it, and our “herd immunity” is a feeble contraceptive considering our global marketplace. I work with epidemiologists every day, and I can tell you that they are all on very high alert.


Has anyone in the us died that isn’t under the age of 75 and not immune compromised. Of the 19 deaths in the US, 16 were from the nursing home in Washington.
 

Stupendous Yappi

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Has anyone in the us died that isn’t under the age of 75 and not immune compromised. Of the 19 deaths in the US, 16 were from the nursing home in Washington.
I can tell you that worldwide this appears to be significantly milder in kids vs adults. There also appear to be two strains, one less severe. If that proves to be the case, reported numbers will need more context to make total sense of it.

Anyway, I would argue that one can take this very seriously without emoting worry or endorsing irrational hoarding. But some perspective is needed and sorely lacking in many media reports. It feels a little like the hurricane watches where you can just tell the news team is hoping it’s a ‘big one’.

I also rankle at someone saying “just the flu”. My earlier point is that it’s irresponsible to ignore influenza prevention. I’ve taken care of plenty of people who died from the flu. But if the flu epidemics don’t keep you awake at night, based on your internal risk assessment, then Covid19 shouldn’t either.
 

Stealth JD

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Apparently this is 20x deadlier than the typical flu...at least that's the stat i heard on the radio. Many people with be asymptomatic, but if it's as widespread as it's feared it could be, there will be bodies piling up in the morgues. 2% is a really big deal...and even if it's primarily amongst the weakened and/or elderly, that's a hell of a toll. 10k of every half-million people would die. There are over 300M people in America. If 10% of the population gets infected, that's 600k fatalities. Even a 1% infected rate kills more Americans than did the entire Vietnam war.

Also - stop buying face-masks folks, unless you already have it and don't want to spread it. Wearing a face mask isn't going to help you not contract it, only help you not spread it after you've contracted it.
 

bleedblue1223

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Apparently this is 20x deadlier than the typical flu...at least that's the stat i heard on the radio. Many people with be asymptomatic, but if it's as widespread as it's feared it could be, there will be bodies piling up in the morgues. 2% is a really big deal...and even if it's primarily amongst the weakened and/or elderly, that's a hell of a toll. 10k of every half-million people would die. There are over 300M people in America. If 10% of the population gets infected, that's 600k fatalities. Even a 1% infected rate kills more Americans than did the entire Vietnam war.

Also - stop buying face-masks folks, unless you already have it and don't want to spread it. Wearing a face mask isn't going to help you not contract it, only help you not spread it after you've contracted it.
The 1st paragraph and 2nd are directly related. By fear-mongering on any level, it leads to people not reacting as they should and it leads to a shortage on masks for people who actually need them. There have been no deaths in 0-9 year olds. And the death rate of 10-19 is .2%, 20-29 is .2%, and 30-39 is .2%, and 40-49 is .4%. It starts giong up a bit more, but 50-59 is still just 1.3%.

For the vast majority of people, the coronavirus isn't a huge deal. That still doesn't mean it's nothing, so people need to take caution, but a lot of how it's presented by the media and news is dangerous.

We've seen the spread slow down dramatically in both China and South Korea. There is a very real chance that will happen worldwide too.
 
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