Around The NHL Discussion 2018-2019

[stl76]

Why would everything have to go right to put up 80+? Things went horribly wrong and he still put up 70pts. So for things to go right, Schwartz just needs to stay healthy. Hell...if O'Reilly/Tarasenko is a thing, Schenn will have easier matchups as Tarasenko is always going to pull the top defense.

I wasn't a big Schenn believer till I watched him. He did drive alot of offense. He's much more dangerous off the rush then I ever imagined. I always though he was a low slot guy that pounded in tap ins. Dude isnt getting enough credit for the production he had.

This feels like you're focusing rather heavily on a small part of my larger previous post, but here goes. Schenn had a career year, averaging nearly 3 minutes more TOI than his career average. I think some of those minutes will go to ROR, and Schenn's production will take a modest hit.

Schenn missed playing with a great player for several weeks, I wouldn't exactly characterize that as "things went horribly wrong." He still played a lot with Tarasenko, recieved extremely favorable offensive usage starting in the o-zone nearly 64% of the time, played all 82 games without dealing with any major injuries, got plenty of time on the first PP time (granted out PP was a joke, but still...), etc. In fact, I'd argue that many more things went right for Schenn than went wrong last season.

 

[Dbrownss]

This feels like you're focusing rather heavily on a small part of my larger previous post, but here goes. Schenn had a career year, averaging nearly 3 minutes more TOI than his career average. I think some of those minutes will go to ROR, and Schenn's production will take a modest hit.

Schenn missed playing with a great player for several weeks, I wouldn't exactly characterize that as "things went horribly wrong." He still played a lot with Tarasenko, recieved extremely favorable offensive usage starting in the o-zone nearly 64% of the time, played all 82 games without dealing with any major injuries, got plenty of time on the first PP time (granted out PP was a joke, but still...), etc. In fact, I'd argue that many more things went right for Schenn than went wrong last season.

Orielly isnt coming in out of nowhere though, he's going to take up Stastny role, who played 18-20min a night. I don't think he would take any of Schenn's time, No more then Stastny did.

Schwartz seemed more like the drink stirrer then Tarasenko, and once Schwartz went down, everything fell apart. That's more what I mean when things went horribly wrong, the team just collapsed

Different utilization, more ice time and better chemistry, I dont think it's too far fetched for him to repeat and possibly improve. 10pts over 82 games isnt out of the realm.


And yes, I am focusing on that as I dont care to really discuss Hellebyuck as I'm only knowledged in his NHL career.

 

[stl76]

Orielly isnt coming in out of nowhere though, he's going to take up Stastny role, who played 18-20min a night. I don't think he would take any of Schenn's time, No more then Stastny did.

Schwartz seemed more like the drink stirrer then Tarasenko, and once Schwartz went down, everything fell apart. That's more what I mean when things went horribly wrong, the team just collapsed

Different utilization, more ice time and better chemistry, I dont think it's too far fetched for him to repeat and possibly improve. 10pts over 82 games isnt out of the realm.

Gotcha, I see what you mean about the team falling apart.

I just don't think Schenn's utilization is likely to get significantly more favorable or his chemistry is likely to get much better. Both were already really good for him last season. 64% offensive zone starts, plenty of PP time, and playing with Jaden Schwartz is about as good as it gets. They could improve a bit, especially if defenses have to focus on ROR + Tarasenko and Schwartz can stay healthy as you point out. But I think Schenn's minutes could also decrease a bit as well, which would probably even things out.

ROR usually averages ~21 minutes per game. Stastny averaged around right 19 in his years with the Blues. Something has to give there. One thing I neglected to mention previously was Schenn's P/60. I think it's an important part of the picture here because while Schenn's overall scoring was up last year (career highs in G's/A's/P's), his P/60 was only slightly higher than his previous seasons. This indicates to me that a not-insignificant portion of his offensive totals last season came from simply playing more minutes.

All that said, I think he'll finish in the min-60's, but don't think 70 is out of the question for Schenn. 80 is very optimistic IMO, but would love to be wrong!

 

[Dbrownss]

Gotcha, I see what you mean about the team falling apart.

I just don't think Schenn's utilization is likely to get significantly more favorable or his chemistry is likely to get much better. Both were already really good for him last season. 64% offensive zone starts, plenty of PP time, and playing with Jaden Schwartz is about as good as it gets. They could improve a bit, especially if defenses have to focus on ROR + Tarasenko and Schwartz can stay healthy as you point out. But I think Schenn's minutes could also decrease a bit as well, which would probably even things out.

ROR usually averages ~21 minutes per game. Stastny averaged around right 19 in his years with the Blues. Something has to give there. One thing I neglected to mention previously was Schenn's P/60. I think it's an important part of the picture here because while Schenn's overall scoring was up last year (career highs in G's/A's/P's), his P/60 was only slightly higher than his previous seasons. This indicates to me that a not-insignificant portion of his offensive totals last season came from simply playing more minutes.

All that said, I think he'll finish in the min-60's, but don't think 70 is out of the question for Schenn. 80 is very optimistic IMO, but would love to be wrong!

I think Orielly's time may drop a bit....he's not exactly the fleetest of foot and he's going to have a better support cast. Schenn didnt PK and I'd bet Schenn will get a PP unit and Orielly will get the other. I just dont see Schenns time impacted.

I base my expectations of Schenn repeating or getting better on potentially more favorable matches, and Schwartz not getting a rediculous injury. Nothing too crazy imo

 

[Dbrownss]

I'm listen to nhl networks team preview. San Jose has got to be the most overrated team there is

 

[Majorityof1]

I'm listen to nhl networks team preview. San Jose has got to be the most overrated team there is

Most predictions I have seen have them 2nd in the Pacific, which is fair as the Pacific is the weakest division with Anaheim taking a step back.. I think they can even win it as Vegas has to cool of sometime...right? On the other hand I have been predicting Vegas cooling off since they won the opener so I think 2nd in the Pacific is a fair pick for SJ. Gambling odds have them at 9th or 10th best shot at the cup which is also fair. San Jose is with St. Louis as a tweener between at the upper part of the middle of the pack or the lower fringe of contenders. They aren't as deep with skaters as we are, but they have better goaltending and coaching.

How highly rated are they to be over-rated? Where would you stack them in Pacific, odds to win?

 

[Dbrownss]

Most predictions I have seen have them 2nd in the Pacific, which is fair as the Pacific is the weakest division with Anaheim taking a step back.. I think they can even win it as Vegas has to cool of sometime...right? On the other hand I have been predicting Vegas cooling off since they won the opener so I think 2nd in the Pacific is a fair pick for SJ. Gambling odds have them at 9th or 10th best shot at the cup which is also fair. San Jose is with St. Louis as a tweener between at the upper part of the middle of the pack or the lower fringe of contenders. They aren't as deep with skaters as we are, but they have better goaltending and coaching.

How highly rated are they to be over-rated? Where would you stack them in Pacific, odds to win?

Not in that sense. I'm fine with them being 1st or 2nd given the pacific is on track to be the NHL doormat.

Here's a few things:

Thorton: sure he's coming back but he's returning from injury....and from a previous injury on top of that. Being 39yrs old....I dont see how people can be fist pumping that that's their 1c. If Couture is the 1c....well then they are no better then the Blues in that regard.

Merkley: I dont nessaseraly disagree with the pick, but they shouldn't be praised for some sleuth work. There's a reason the kid was rumored to be on the do not draft list for some teams. The sharks to me aren't some team that routinely snags great gems in the late first or later rounds. Not saying it doesnt happen, but not nearly enough to praise them for selecting Merkley.

Their overall team: their stars are aging and the youth movement isnt elite. Just a collection of good but not great players.


As for the playoffs several times I heard the hosts say that well if the sharks met Winnepeg instead of Vegas....they would have went onto the Cup finals....why? Iirc, jets were 2-1 against the sharks in the season. They just keep getting this benefit of the doubt that Vegas only stopped San Jose because they were hot....sorry but you dont lose a 7 games series in 6 games because you were the better team.

 

[Spektre]

I'm listen to nhl networks team preview. San Jose has got to be the most overrated team there is

Most of the same experts had Dallas winning the central last year.

 

[The Note in MI]

I think if you want good analysis and predictions HFboards is the place you’re gonna get it, not NHL network lol.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

I’ve got San Jose winning the Pacific with Calgary and one of LA/ANA getting the other. I just don’t see Vegas keeping the magic going.

 

[simon IC]

I’ve got San Jose winning the Pacific with Calgary and one of LA/ANA getting the other. I just don’t see Vegas keeping the magic going.

Funny you mentioned Calgary. I have a gut feeling that they will make some playoff noise this year. I liked the moves they made recently. They are in a similar position to us, in that everything depends on their goaltending.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

Funny you mentioned Calgary. I have a gut feeling that they will make some playoff noise this year. I liked the moves they made recently. they are in a similar position to us, in that everything depends on their goaltending.

I love the moves they’ve made this offseason. Hamilton never seemed to be much of a good fit, and I think Neal/Hanifin/Lindbolm will be great adds. I still see them making a move for a goalie if Smith craps the bed.

 

[Dbrownss]

Funny you mentioned Calgary. I have a gut feeling that they will make some playoff noise this year. I liked the moves they made recently. They are in a similar position to us, in that everything depends on their goaltending.

Calgary is that team that I get tired of saying, "they'll make noise this year". They are always swapping parts around not ultimately fall short.

 

[BlueDream]

I like what Calgary did. First of all I have no idea how Gulutzan ever got a head coaching job with them. Dude is awful. Bill Peters is mediocre and gets overrated on the main boards but anyone is an upgrade over Gulutzan.

Plus they finally have more scoring depth. Adding Neal, Lindholm and Ryan up front without really losing anyone important is pretty big.

They SHOULD be a good team. At least they are trying, unlike teams like Anaheim and Minnesota who seem to think the status quo will somehow change something for them.

 

[542365]

I honestly believe that outside of the dumpster fire up in Ottawa that Minnesota is in the worst position in the NHL. They aren't bad enough to land a high end prospect, but they're not actually competing for the Cup. There are at least 10 teams in the NHL better than them, but also 10 clearly worse. Everything about the team is fine, but not great. 11th in goals scored, 11th in goals against, 18th in PP%, 13th in PK%, prospect pool middle of the pack etc. That's a bad place to be.

 

[BlueOil]

Gunnarsson, Bouwmeester, or Schmaltz?

with the number of free agent d men left on the market, i can't see them making a hockey trade. a trade to dump salary so they can sign a d man or two? sure

why trade under the gun if you can just sign someone?

 

[BlueOil]

I'm listen to nhl networks team preview. San Jose has got to be the most overrated team there is

san jose is lucky to be in the pacific divison, where a two or three big names can make you the favorite

san jose's cup window is arguably closed and if not, closing quite fast, as their core is aging

they've got reasonable defense and solid goaltenders though, so they probably won't fall far in a weak division when it happens

 

[Dbrownss]

The power play on NHL network had the Blues season preview today. Yeo was on, nothing too crazy, sounds excited to have his new toys.

My god though......Boomer's take on he Blues offseason is mind numbing. Literally questioned every move and said they probably won't be better then they were last year. Yet the Avalanche are fine and dandy...even though their surge was due to MacKinnon scoring 30%+ more points....but sure, that's repeatable.

 

[BlueDream]

The power play on NHL network had the Blues season preview today. Yeo was on, nothing too crazy, sounds excited to have his new toys.

My god though......Boomer's take on he Blues offseason is mind numbing. Literally questioned every move and said they probably won't be better then they were last year. Yet the Avalanche are fine and dandy...even though their surge was due to MacKinnon scoring 30%+ more points....but sure, that's repeatable.

Yeah, he interviewed Andy Strickland on the radio one day and I listened to it. He just sounded like a salty clown. Just couldn't wrap his head around anything Andy was saying about why the moves made sense. He didn't make any good counter arguments either.

I mean if somebody legitimately thinks the Blues gave up too much for O'Reilly, then they simply haven't paid any attention to the Blues whatsoever. It's hilarious seeing them say "oh my god you gave up 5 assets!" Yeah, one of those "assets" is a 2nd round pick in 2021, literally 3 years away. Let's stop acting like that has any value. Let's also stop acting like Vladimir Sobotka who was in the KHL for 3 years is an asset. And if you can't realize that Berglund's 4-years left on his contract was a pure cap dump...I don't know how to help you.

The Blues gave up a 1st and Tage Thompson for a top center. A late 1st and an expendable prospect if you want to go even farther. I just get a kick out of anyone suggesting that deal is hurting us.

I wish I could provide a link to him of our trade proposals thread before the deal ever happened. Sobotka, Berglund and Thompson was literally what this forum was praying for. The fact that we didn't give up ANY of our top 7 assets (Thomas, Kyrou, Kostin, Dunn, Parayko, Edmundson, Fabbri) is almost a miracle.

 

[The Note in MI]

Yeah, he interviewed Andy Strickland on the radio one day and I listened to it. He just sounded like a salty clown. Just couldn't wrap his head around anything Andy was saying about why the moves made sense. He didn't make any good counter arguments either.

I mean if somebody legitimately thinks the Blues gave up too much for O'Reilly, then they simply haven't paid any attention to the Blues whatsoever. It's hilarious seeing them say "oh my god you gave up 5 assets!" Yeah, one of those "assets" is a 2nd round pick in 2021, literally 3 years away. Let's stop acting like that has any value. Let's also stop acting like Vladimir Sobotka who was in the KHL for 3 years is an asset. And if you can't realize that Berglund's 4-years left on his contract was a pure cap dump...I don't know how to help you.

The Blues gave up a 1st and Tage Thompson for a top center. A late 1st and an expendable prospect if you want to go even farther. I just get a kick out of anyone suggesting that deal is hurting us.

I wish I could provide a link to him of our trade proposals thread before the deal ever happened. Sobotka, Berglund and Thompson was literally what this forum was praying for. The fact that we didn't give up ANY of our top 7 assets (Thomas, Kyrou, Kostin, Dunn, Parayko, Edmundson, Fabbri) is almost a miracle.

This is the best part of all of this. We moved two steps forward by moving one step back in a way. I don’t see why this isn’t comprehended by some of the National media.

 

[Dbrownss]

Yeah, he interviewed Andy Strickland on the radio one day and I listened to it. He just sounded like a salty clown. Just couldn't wrap his head around anything Andy was saying about why the moves made sense. He didn't make any good counter arguments either.

I mean if somebody legitimately thinks the Blues gave up too much for O'Reilly, then they simply haven't paid any attention to the Blues whatsoever. It's hilarious seeing them say "oh my god you gave up 5 assets!" Yeah, one of those "assets" is a 2nd round pick in 2021, literally 3 years away. Let's stop acting like that has any value. Let's also stop acting like Vladimir Sobotka who was in the KHL for 3 years is an asset. And if you can't realize that Berglund's 4-years left on his contract was a pure cap dump...I don't know how to help you.

The Blues gave up a 1st and Tage Thompson for a top center. A late 1st and an expendable prospect if you want to go even farther. I just get a kick out of anyone suggesting that deal is hurting us.

I wish I could provide a link to him of our trade proposals thread before the deal ever happened. Sobotka, Berglund and Thompson was literally what this forum was praying for. The fact that we didn't give up ANY of our top 7 assets (Thomas, Kyrou, Kostin, Dunn, Parayko, Edmundson, Fabbri) is almost a miracle.

He doesnt think much of Oreilly I guess. I wasnt thrilled for him but that was when Buffalo fans were swooning over the idea of getting Thomas, Kyrou or Parayko. I actually suggested Thompson+Berglund+1st. I couldn't care less that Sobokta and the 2nd were added.

He makes such a big deal out of trading 1sts. He's not wrong but the Blues are a different beast. Sure it would be nice to have Frost+Farabee+whoever in 19.....but I'd rather have Schenn and Orielly who are under 30...who can augment the current core. That's better use of assets then sitting on some kids that may be 2-3yrs away from making an impact and the core is now in their 30s. He didnt even acknowledge the top farm team the Blues have....even of we disregard Pronmann, I've seen 1 or 2 others that have the Blues as a top 10 system.

The only point I agreed on was cap managment but I think DA is done with bringing in guys. Gunnarsson and Boumeester will be off soon and Steen will be the only remaining bad contract. He needs to keep money available for guys getting a raise.


One last thing....he emphasized on the Blues getting nothing from their 3rd line, which was true. Then he kept complaining about Bozak and what role he'll play, Um...3c???????? Itll he nice to have a guy who can be relied on for 40+pts as the 3c. Blues can flank him with guys like Steen and Fabbri. Yes he's overpaid but he's on a short term.

 

[BlueDream]

He doesnt think much of Oreilly I guess. I wasnt thrilled for him but that was when Buffalo fans were swooning over the idea of getting Thomas, Kyrou or Parayko. I actually suggested Thompson+Berglund+1st. I couldn't care less that Sobokta and the 2nd were added.

He makes such a big deal out of trading 1sts. He's not wrong but the Blues are a different beast. Sure it would be nice to have Frost+Farabee+whoever in 19.....but I'd rather have Schenn and Orielly who are under 30...who can augment the current core. That's better use of assets then sitting on some kids that may be 2-3yrs away from making an impact and the core is now in their 30s. He didnt even acknowledge the top farm team the Blues have....even of we disregard Pronmann, I've seen 1 or 2 others that have the Blues as a top 10 system.

The only point I agreed on was cap managment but I think DA is done with bringing in guys. Gunnarsson and Boumeester will be off soon and Steen will be the only remaining bad contract. He needs to keep money available for guys getting a raise.


One last thing....he emphasized on the Blues getting nothing from their 3rd line, which was true. Then he kept complaining about Bozak and what role he'll play, Um...3c???????? Itll he nice to have a guy who can be relied on for 40+pts as the 3c. Blues can flank him with guys like Steen and Fabbri. Yes he's overpaid but he's on a short term.

The way I look at it is you can either be Nashville or Minnesota. Nashville finally decided to be aggressive by bringing in Johansen, Subban and Turris. And they are a legitimate Cup contender.

Or you can be Minnesota and sit on your hands and do nothing to improve your team.

I like that Armstrong is being aggressive. It’s not like he’s trading away top 5 or top 10 picks. If you’re picking around 20th every year, it makes sense to bring in some immediate help instead of just expecting every single prospect to become a star.

And along with Nashville, other Cup winners have also complemented their cores through the trade market. LA won with Carter and Richards. Washington has added plenty through trades and free agency. Hoarding a ton of picks doesn’t mean guaranteed success even though people badly want to try and believe that that’s the case. Just ask Edmonton...
Some teams get lucky like Pittsburgh with generational talents but other than that it’s best to maintain a mix of homegrown talent and outside help.

P.S. On a side note, regarding Bozak I don’t even think he’s overpaid. He looks like it now that he’ll be on the 3rd line since we got O’Reilly. But 5 mil for a 2nd-line caliber guy that has the ability to score 50 pts is pretty fair.

 

[PiggySmalls]

Boomer is traditionally really positive when discussing the Blues. This summer he took a turn. I really think a lot of that is a pre-disposition he has for Bozak and ROR. I’m glad Jake Hahn wasn’t his co-host yesterday. I can’t stand him, such a yes man. At least Tyler Maderaz can see the light.

 

[Dbrownss]

I'm fine with some not wanting to hand the Blues the cup because of the offseason. This team still has to perform on the ice. Just irked that teams like SJ get a pass and the benefit of the doubt, and he criticized the Blues alot for trying to improve

 

[The Note]

I truly couldn’t care less what the National folks think about the Blues offseason. Everyone who’s actually familiar with the team are all very pleased with the changes. I think that says it all. The only thing I’m only mildly cautious about is the Maroon signing and that’s less about the actual signing itself but any potential extension. But until that actually happens, Army gets an A+ in my book.