Around the League: 2019 Offseason || Part 2

[timw33]

I expect a similar 6 year deal will be in the 7-8 range for Boeser...which is pretty much where most think it would land.

Yep, agreed. Unfortunately we can't even offer a deal like this now that we've blown our load on FA/acquisitions.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Not sure how that's a "boom". Boeser has signficantly outperformed Konecny offensively and that is what will lead to the contract numbers. Konecny is, IMO, on a tier below in terms of contract value. I expect a similar 6 year deal will be in the 7-8 range for Boeser...which is pretty much where most think it would land.

i agree boeser is better but boeser is the next domino after konecny so his signing definitely puts boeser up to bat.

 

[krutovsdonut]

"[Chris Johnston on CBA discussions] While nothing has yet been agreed upon between both parties, sources with knowledge believe the salary cap could end up being frozen at its current $81.5-million ceiling for two more years — or raised only minimally — as a way to lower players’ escrow payments."

Maple Leafs approaching uncertain salary cap future one year at a time - Sportsnet.ca

So this would essentially continue the trend of squeezing out non elite skill talent getting paid, and overpaying for mediocre talent will absolutely kill your team.

after watching the knights and blues do what they did with mid range talent, i am skeptical that the penguins/hawks top heavy model is seen as the trending or only way to skin a fish. if you have an exceptional core ok, but the oilers are a lesson in what happens if you overestimate that core.

 

[tantalum]

i agree boeser is better but boeser is the next domino after konecny so his signing definitely puts boeser up to bat.

Not sure. I think Tkachuk and Rantanen could be next up or the Boeser camp may be waiting for it. I sort of see Boeser a tier up on the likes of Konecny and then Tkachuk and Rantanen a tier up on Boeser. I think Tkachuk can slot in in the 8-9 range placing Boeser firmly in the 7-8 range. The two contract offerings, one from each side, that I've seen has been at $7M AAV. Boeser camp was 4 yr, the cnaucks 6 years. Obviously, if 6 year the Boeser camp is going to want more than $7...but they might not be that far away depending on how the Boeser camp structured things. If it's Meier structured (say $10 mil qualifier after year 4) then they are about $6 mil total or so away in a 6 yr deal. That ought to be bridged pretty easily you'd think.

Rantanen, Laine and Boeser are represented by the same agency which is interesting.

 

[krutovsdonut]

meanwhile, no strike or lockout in the near future. seattle would seem to be good to launch.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Rantanen, Laine and Boeser are represented by the same agency which is interesting.

that's a huge detail i did not realize.

yes i suppose they could try to skip over boeser to establish a higher ceiling for him. that being said, the order this summer has mostly been bottom up, with marner as an outlier, and the other players have an incentive to wait for boeser to float their boats higher.

honestly, boeser is not in the same tier as rantenen or laine though based on actual hard stats, and i can't believe he as a person is a hardball negotiator.

 

[tantalum]

that's a huge detail i did not realize.

yes i suppose they could try to skip over boeser to establish a higher ceiling for him. that being said, the order this summer has mostly been bottom up, with marner as an outlier, and the other players have an incentive to wait for boeser to float their boats higher.

honestly, boeser is not in the same tier as rantenen or laine though based on actual hard stats, and i can't believe he as a person is a hardball negotiator.

I think Rantanen is in the Tkachuk tier in terms of ability. I wonder if he has the same leverage though. I view Tkachuk very much has the guy that really stirs the drink for Calgary and hile they have Gaudreau, Giordano and a lesser extent Monahan I think like Boeser, Tkachuk has become the face of the franchise. The Flames sell the team on him. Rantanen is in a situation where Landeskog and MacKinnon are strong faces for the franchise. I wonder if that decreases leverage a bit for him. I don't know.

When i'm looking at these things I look at the numbers and the importance to the team. The canucks have marketed the hell out of Boeser since he was drafted and there are likely some extra $$$ he can get for that.

Laine I have no idea where he falls. I really don't. The Jets have so much other young talent and really the season he had last year really decreased the fan pressure on the Jets to just get him signed.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

I think Rantanen is in the Tkachuk tier in terms of ability. I wonder if he has the same leverage though. I view Tkachuk very much has the guy that really stirs the drink for Calgary and hile they have Gaudreau, Giordano and a lesser extent Monahan I think like Boeser, Tkachuk has become the face of the franchise. The Flames sell the team on him. Rantanen is in a situation where Landeskog and MacKinnon are strong faces for the franchise. I wonder if that decreases leverage a bit for him. I don't know.

When i'm looking at these things I look at the numbers and the importance to the team. The canucks have marketed the hell out of Boeser since he was drafted and there are likely some extra $$$ he can get for that.

Laine I have no idea where he falls. I really don't. The Jets have so much other young talent and really the season he had last year really decreased the fan pressure on the Jets to just get him signed.

Laine is the one player I can see holding out long term. It is so hard to place his true value. Is he the lethal sniper he has shown the first 2 seasons? Or the inconsistent one-dimensional player of last year? Either way his effort level has been questioned, so it is hard to commit long term on him. Yet, if you bridge him and he explodes for 40+ goals the next couple years (very possible), you are going to have a very expensive extension coming up in a couple years. Tough spot to be in for the GM.
Next up is probably Point. Then the rest will sign pretty much right before the season starts, IMO.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

Actually one thing I've been wondering about, and want to hear you guys/gals opinion, is contracts as a % of the cap. Some RFA's this year (through reports or leaks), are hesitant to commit to a long term deal because they see the cap going up a lot in the next few years, and they might miss out on more money if they commit long term. It got me thinking, why don't they structure the contracts as a percentage of the cap? Say the cap is $80m now, and $100m in 3 years. If a player sign a contract as a percentage of the cap (say 10%), he will get $8m this coming season and $10m in 3 years. He doesn't lose earning potential even if he signs for max term. The team will have cost certainty in the context that they will always know how much of a percentage they have commited to a player. Negotiations uses past contracts as a reference point, but they use % of cap anyways, might as well sign contracts using that guideline. Its not like the cap is going down so the players lose nothing, but should it goes down for some unforeseen reasons, the teams are not going to be carrying a roster over the cap even if it carries many long term big dollar contracts.

I'm sure I'm missing some obvious flaws in this system, so please point it out for me becuase I can't figure it out.

 

[Motte and Bailey]

Actually one thing I've been wondering about, and want to hear you guys/gals opinion, is contracts as a % of the cap. Some RFA's this year (through reports or leaks), are hesitant to commit to a long term deal because they see the cap going up a lot in the next few years, and they might miss out on more money if they commit long term. It got me thinking, why don't they structure the contracts as a percentage of the cap? Say the cap is $80m now, and $100m in 3 years. If a player sign a contract as a percentage of the cap (say 10%), he will get $8m this coming season and $10m in 3 years. He doesn't lose earning potential even if he signs for max term. The team will have cost certainty in the context that they will always know how much of a percentage they have commited to a player. Negotiations uses past contracts as a reference point, but they use % of cap anyways, might as well sign contracts using that guideline. Its not like the cap is going down so the players lose nothing, but should it goes down for some unforeseen reasons, the teams are not going to be carrying a roster over the cap even if it carries many long term big dollar contracts.

I'm sure I'm missing some obvious flaws in this system, so please point it out for me becuase I can't figure it out.

Say the cap goes down. The guy who thought he signed for $10 mill ends up making $9 mill and change. I think that’s a risk the players aren’t willing to take.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

Say the cap goes down. The guy who thought he signed for $10 mill ends up making $9 mill and change. I think that’s a risk the players aren’t willing to take.

True but the cap had never gone down. Their upside potential outweigh the downside. But yes that is definitely a concern.

 

[Motte and Bailey]

True but the cap had never gone down. Their upside potential outweigh the downside. But yes that is definitely a concern.

If I was a player I would rather go for a cap% deal. It’s probably the owners that want a fixed $ contract because it allows them to control how much they spend, how close to the cap ceiling/floor they want to go on any given year.

Take the case of Eugene Melnyk. The cap has gone up a lot in the last few years but the Senators revenue has tanked. If salaries are cap% based he still has to pay higher and higher salaries every year. Could cause a few teams to go bankrupt.

 

[Upoil]

If I was a player I would rather go for a cap% deal. It’s probably the owners that want a fixed $ contract because it allows them to control how much they spend, how close to the cap ceiling/floor they want to go on any given year.

Take the case of Eugene Melnyk. The cap has gone up a lot in the last few years but the Senators revenue has tanked. If salaries are cap% based he still has to pay higher and higher salaries every year. Could cause a few teams to go bankrupt.

Yeah - that isn't how it works because of the revenue sharing and escrow. In no way are the player salaries fixed $ contracts.

 

[Motte and Bailey]

Yeah - that isn't how it works because of the revenue sharing and escrow. In no way are the player salaries fixed $ contracts.

It is a fixed cost for the owners which is the point in making.

 

[Upoil]

It is a fixed cost for the owners which is the point in making.

Nope. Your understanding is wrong.

If a player signs for 5 million a year that isn't exactly the actual payroll cost the team incurs each year due to the way the CBA is structured with the 50/50 revenue sharing and the related escrow payments.

 

[Knight53]

I think he's gone within 2 years, too much drama around him and the team

 

[sandwichbird2023]

I think he's gone within 2 years, too much drama around him and the team

Whoa...his linemates are Ehler and Little most of the time, not like he's playing with 4th liners. And he is on a stacked PP. He was tried with Schiefele and Wheeler but it didn't work. He really have nothing to complain about.

 

[krutovsdonut]

laine seems to want a trade.

 

[VanillaCoke]

They should trade him while he has value...
Said as much last earlier this year.

 

[krutovsdonut]

jets need to get connor signed quickly and isolate laine or this is going to go badly.

 

[Dr Good Vibes]

Marner had a repulsive giveaway in his game LOL. 11 million. It’s gonna be popcorn season if he struggles AT ALL this year.

 

[timw33]

Hutton LAK 1 year $1.5MM

 

[Fire Benning]

Hutton LAK 1 year $1.5MM

Good buy low move for the Kings.

 

[sting101]

Hutton LAK 1 year $1.5MM

glad to hear he's going to a team where he will play lots.

Hope he gets a decent partner (Doughty maybe?) and has a positive season not another minus 25 year.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Hutton LAK 1 year $1.5MM

glad for him