Around the League 2018-19

[Maukkis]

I, for one, quite like the 'out-PDO the f*** out of everyone and watch people brag about the team on HFBoards' approach. Also known as the Vegas model.

 

[ps241]

Tom Wilson 6 years at 31 million. Yikes.

This seems crazy...

Cory Hirsch on Twitter was going off on the critics of the contract saying “if you ever went in the corner against Tom Wilson you wouldn’t think he was overpaid” then the Don Cherry lovin out pouring of stats haters chimed in to dangle spit in the face of the stats nerds in the playground to discuss intangibles.

That is such an interesting reaction.

Sure why not pay him 10 million then? I do understand why some guys like throw backs but it’s ok to debate their cap hit.

 

[Duke749]

Lol That’s a shit ton for Tom Wilson.

 

[Hunter368]

Brady signing today with NYR should help focus in on what Trouba is really worth.

 

[Maukkis]

Brady signing today with NYR should help focus in on what Trouba is really worth.

Much more.

Skjei is a Morrissey comparable. Would not be shocked to see the two getting identical deals.

 

[Hunter368]

Much more.

Skjei is a Morrissey comparable. Would not be shocked to see the two getting identical deals.

Yes to both points.....depending on “much more”......certainly more though for Trouba. But as stated it helps clarifies his range

 

[ERYX]

I love glue guys, character guys, guys who go into the corner, and I am sceptical “fancy stats” but good gravy that Tom Wilson contract seems terrible to me. I’m surprised the Capitals fans are defending it.

Guys with intangibles (which I actually think is a legit thing) should not be paid as if they are superstars.

This makes me even more happy about the Lowry signing. Not that Lowsie is a filthy head shot artist like Wilson so I’m hesitant to make too much of a comparison, but Lowry is out physical guy you don’t want to go into the corners with who adds some secondary scoring.

 

[mcpw]

I love glue guys, character guys, guys who go into the corner, and I am sceptical “fancy stats” but good gravy that Tom Wilson contract seems terrible to me. I’m surprised the Capitals fans are defending it.

Guys with intangibles (which I actually think is a legit thing) should not be paid as if they are superstars.

This makes me even more happy about the Lowry signing. Not that Lowsie is a filthy head shot artist like Wilson so I’m hesitant to make too much of a comparison, but Lowry is out physical guy you don’t want to go into the corners with who adds some secondary scoring.

regarding fancystats and such: there's actually another similarity between Lowry and Wilson besides the whole physical play stuff. I'd call it a lesson on sample sizes and age curves more than fancystats...

what probably (imo) makes some Washington fans "defend" the contract: 2018 Playoffs Tom Wilson (21 games) is actually a really good player according to the basic fancystats. Above average first line scoring at evens, Corgis are barking. Easily worth over $5M.

In the same way, the fancystats of 17-18 Regular Season Adam Lowry (45 games) looked like he'd be easily worth $6M, as I've argued in this post.

But in both cases, you're not signing 2018 Playoffs Wilson or 17-18 Regular Season Lowry; you're signing Tom Wilson or Adam Lowry. Both have a long history of not being 2018 Playoffs Wilson or 17-18 Regular Season Lowry, but significantly worse. Fans might tend to think they're young so it was a "breakout" instead of a random hot streak (24 years really isn't "young" for most players). I wonder what would have happened had Lowry's offensive production carried on into the playoffs (this is a neutral statement, I really do wonder).

by the way: another example of a player whose numbers hinted at an above average first line forward is 14-15 Marko Dano (38 games). His 2.43 5v5 P/60 was better than all 17-18 Jets forwards, and a +6 CF%Rel on top of that? Small samples...

 

[Whileee]

regarding fancystats and such: there's actually another similarity between Lowry and Wilson besides the whole physical play stuff. I'd call it a lesson on sample sizes and age curves more than fancystats...

what probably (imo) makes some Washington fans "defend" the contract: 2018 Playoffs Tom Wilson (21 games) is actually a really good player according to the basic fancystats. Above average first line scoring at evens, Corgis are barking. Easily worth over $5M.

In the same way, the fancystats of 17-18 Regular Season Adam Lowry (45 games) looked like he'd be easily worth $6M, as I've argued in this post.

But in both cases, you're not signing 2018 Playoffs Wilson or 17-18 Regular Season Lowry; you're signing Tom Wilson or Adam Lowry. Both have a long history of not being 2018 Playoffs Wilson or 17-18 Regular Season Lowry, but significantly worse. Fans might tend to think they're young so it was a "breakout" instead of a random hot streak (24 years really isn't "young" for most players). I wonder what would have happened had Lowry's offensive production carried on into the playoffs (this is a neutral statement, I really do wonder).

by the way: another example of a player whose numbers hinted at an above average first line forward is 14-15 Marko Dano (38 games). His 2.43 5v5 P/60 was better than all 17-18 Jets forwards, and a +6 CF%Rel on top of that? Small samples...

Comparing what Lowry did in 45 games and the playoffs is not the same as Wilson when you dig a bit deeper into the stats. Lowry carried everyone with him (mostly "4th liners") and shut down and dominated everyone, as a C.

 

[ERYX]

Comparing what Lowry did in 45 games and the playoffs is not the same as Wilson when you dig a bit deeper into the stats. Lowry carried everyone with him (mostly "4th liners") and shut down and dominated everyone, as a C.

Whereas playoffs Wilson was arguably being pulled up/carried by Ovechkin and Kuznetdov. Is he that good playing with Copp and Tanev instead?

 

[civic204]

Wilson is winning life right now. Cup, contract, gf from Winnipeg...

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

Wilson is winning life right now. Cup, contract, gf from Winnipeg...

2 out of 3 isn’t too bad

 

[Maukkis]

I hope Ceci doesn't sign a contract prior to his arbitration award being announced.

With the asks being 3.5 (team) and 6 (player), I want to see how the impartial arbitrator handles this one. You could argue that Ceci does not deserve that 3.5 that has been offered by the Sens. If he decides to split the difference, I will seriously question the competence of whoever is in charge of evaluating players in these cases.

 

[cbcwpg]

I hope Ceci doesn't sign a contract prior to his arbitration award being announced.

With the asks being 3.5 (team) and 6 (player), I want to see how the impartial arbitrator handles this one. You could argue that Ceci does not deserve that 3.5 that has been offered by the Sens. If he decides to split the difference, I will seriously question the competence of whoever is in charge of evaluating players in these cases.

What a job. You get paid to listen to both side argue ( in the case of Trouba it was said to be 6 hours ) and then you make the decision you had already decided you were going to make before the meeting even started.... right down the middle.

Two players so far went to arbitration meetings this year ( Trouba - WPG, Kulak - CAL ) both were awarded a split.

 

[Maukkis]

What a job. You get paid to listen to both side argue ( in the case of Trouba it was said to be 6 hours ) and then you make the decision you had already decided you were going to make before the meeting even started.... right down the middle.

Two players so far went to arbitration meetings this year ( Trouba - WPG, Kulak - CAL ) both were awarded a split.

In those cases, going down the middle was even somewhat sensible. When it comes to Ceci, 4.75 would be just a gross overestimation of what Ceci is and has no bearings on his results.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

I hope Ceci doesn't sign a contract prior to his arbitration award being announced.

With the asks being 3.5 (team) and 6 (player), I want to see how the impartial arbitrator handles this one. You could argue that Ceci does not deserve that 3.5 that has been offered by the Sens. If he decides to split the difference, I will seriously question the competence of whoever is in charge of evaluating players in these cases.

There's no way Cici is worth 3.5 million. The sens were forced to offer that as a minimum, because of RFA rules.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

There's no way Cici is worth 3.5 million. The sens were forced to offer that as a minimum, because of RFA rules.

What RFA rule compels the team to offer more than the player is worth?

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

What RFA rule compels the team to offer more than the player is worth?

Qualifying Offers have to be at a certain level compared to previous contracts.

 

[Maukkis]

What RFA rule compels the team to offer more than the player is worth?

You cannot go below whatever the player's qualifying offer is. That goes for both arbitration cases and other contracts.

Now, Ceci's base salary from last year was 3.35 million, so they did offer a bit more.

 

[CorgisPer60]

You cannot go below whatever the player's qualifying offer is. That goes for both arbitration cases and other contracts.

Now, Ceci's base salary from last year was 3.35 million, so they did offer a bit more.

Don't qualifying offers also have to have a base inflation of 5% over the previous year salary? Either way, there's no way Cody Ceci is worth that much.

 

[Maukkis]

Don't qualifying offers also have to have a base inflation of 5% over the previous year salary? Either way, there's no way Cody Ceci is worth that much.

I think there is a mandatory bump of 5/10% to qualifying offers that are near the league minimum. Don't remember the exact terms, but if you're making over a million, it shouldn't apply.

 

[Rheged]

I saw it stated after Trouba's hearing that the down the middle split happens because in previous cases where it hasn't the arbitrator has been pretty much immediately fired by the 'losing' party. Player evaluation brings very little to the process as it exists currently.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

Midpoint between 6 million and 3.5 is 4.75 million.

Would you rather have: An open roster/contract spot OR Cici for 1x4.75 million?

I'd take the open roster spot. At 3.5 I'd think about it.

Ott kinda has to go for it this year.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think there is a mandatory bump of 5/10% to qualifying offers that are near the league minimum. Don't remember the exact terms, but if you're making over a million, it shouldn't apply.

I believe it is 5% for salaries <1mil. I'm not sure what the QO rules are above that salary level. Are teams required to make a QO to players going to arbitration? Does the QO set a minimum level for the arbitration offer?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Midpoint between 6 million and 3.5 is 4.75 million.

Would you rather have: An open roster/contract spot OR Cici for 1x4.75 million?

I'd take the open roster spot. At 3.5 I'd think about it.

The team is allowed to refuse the arbitration contract - making the player a UFA.