You make a good point about the existence of an issue. But I think you are missing something. HRR split isn't something that is relatively stable at 50%. It is carved in stone at 50%. GM's who pay too much to 2nd level talents coming out of their ELC's are boxing themselves into a corner. But that is their problem, not the league's or the players'. They have no alternative but to find the cap space somewhere else. They can pay the bottom of their rosters less, or they can pay older players less to come up with it, but they can't exceed the cap.
It might be possible for them to come up with some kind of intermediate status between ELC and RFA but they would need to give up something in exchange. That might be earlier UFA, or something that makes offer sheets a more realistic proposal. I could see the players pushing for more offer sheet action anyway so maybe there is room for some give and take there.
The things that could lead to a lockout/strike though would be things that affect the final division of the pot. If you look at the previous lockouts, they all made substantial adjustments to the bottom line. As long as the division is going to stay at 50% and HRR is defined the same way, I don't think we see any more work stoppages unless there is some major change to the way revenue is generated. If the league started getting more revenue from some area outside HRR the players would want their share. I can't imagine what that might be right now though.
Neither side wants to give up current income unless there is a real payoff in the future. Adjustments to the mechanics of splitting the money are negotiable, but I don't see those issues resulting in cancelling games.
Getting lockout protection in a contract is just due diligence on the part of agents. Neither side 'knows something' until something happens.
All that said, the last lockout should never have happened. Everybody knew months, or even years in advance almost exactly how it would turn out in the end. They were really only fighting over details that could have been worked out amicably if the major points had been accepted. The big thing was the 50% split of HRR. Everybody saw that coming. The details should have been easier to work out, but both sides apparently felt like they had to fight hard for more before accepting the compromise that had been anticipated from the outset. People get really stupid when money is the issue.We'll see. I hope you are wrong but you have history on your side.
Thanks for the response Mort. Can't say I have any particular problem with your view on things. Perhaps (heh, no perhaps about it) I'm just too jaded in some things, hockey negotiations being one of them. As you well point out the last lockout ended up where everyone knew it would from the start. I guess I'm just unwilling to accept the notion that the league can manage its' own affairs without an argument.
And you are right, it is incumbent on the General Managers to manage their available cap space. I just view it a little differently in that I fully expect them to go over to Bettman and say something like "hey, this RFA thing isn't working like intended, we need some help here". That's probably all it takes to have an issue, never mind the Olympic aspect.
As we agree, older players won't like it, younger guys want to get paid now at UFA rates, so the PA isn't going to come to any sort of agreement in the short term. I'll remain eternally unsympathetic towards them because I can't relate to the absurd amounts of money they're arguing over. I also remain unsympathetic to GMs that can't manage their finances better as well.
