Speculation: Armchair GM 2023 Off-Season Edition: The Summer Without Brad

[deleted user]

Bennett will always sting. I loved him as a Flame.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Yeah we need to sign 2 of Kylington, Zadorov or Hanifin. At the very least one of those guys.

 

[Lunatik]

So I am going to change the subject a little from speculating about what happens in the Summer of '24, to what happens in the next month.

Looking at the current roster and our cap info on CapFriendly, I wonder if we make a small cap move before the season starts. According to CF, we are over the cap by 212k, with a 22-man roster. Eve with demoting Oesterle and bringing up Klapka, we'd still be over by about 121k.

I know going with a 21-man roster is most likely, but I am not a fan of it for road trips, especially when games 2-7 are a long east coast road trip.

 

[Volica]

Yeah we need to sign 2 of Kylington, Zadorov or Hanifin. At the very least one of those guys.

You really can't let all three go, that's absolutely certain.
I'm just curious about the direction of this team (as has been my major concern for the better part of 15 years now).

Would anyone really be surprised if this team rattled off 6-7 wins in their first 9 games and everyone was back to being like "Flames surprising start?" This team went from being a really, really incredible story to being a laughing stock in one year... and that one year literally everything went wrong. Like, everything went wrong. I'm not calling it or anything, but I could see this team challenge for top spot in the Pacific if things break their way.

Like if Huberdeau goes back to the player he was since like 2016.
If Kadri plays up to his potential and doesn't quit on the coaching staff/team like he did last year.
If Lindholm/Kadri/Backlund become the three-headed elite two-way monsters they have been in the past.
If the defence plays up to their potential, because that is probably the deepest or top 5 deepest blue lines in the NHL.
If Markstrom can stop a beach ball.

The same people who've been making fun of Calgary for the past 9 months, will be like 'man this team is sneaky deep' because in reality, it is.

Back to your quote though. If Calgary does end up being a good squad... how does that change what they do with UFA's?

 

[Ace Rimmer]

Surprised? I'm almost expecting a dead cat bounce with a new coach. That said, we won't even know what this team really is until December / January.

 

[Mobiandi]

The Sutter 5-1-0 start was our best start in about a decade.

Flames M.O. is to tread water in October. Especially with a new coach. Then we hear about how it takes our players 40-60 games to learn a coach’s system for some reason.

When Geoff Ward was fired, Huska took over and coached us to a 0-1-1 record. It will be a learning process for both coach and team, which is why any distracted pending UFAs need to be sent packing immediately. October will be rough, we can make it less rough for ourselves

 

[super6646]

If we get more than a 6th or 7th I'll be surprised

 

[Ace Rimmer]

If we get more than a 6th or 7th I'll be surprised

If we only get a 6th or 7th, I'll be disappointed.

 

[Fig]

If we only get a 6th or 7th, I'll be disappointed.

We typically do quite well with 6th rounders... But yes, more would be nice.

 

[Lunatik]

If we get more than a 6th or 7th I'll be surprised

I actually think it might make sense for it to be Vladar for Francouz straight up if this is legit. Maybe a conditional pick based on how much Francouz does (or doesn't) play based on his injury.

IIRC the timeline for adductor surgery is usually about 3 months, so while it's being reported he may be out for the start of camp, he had the surgery in May, he's already 4 months into recovery and then we get teh added benefit of him being a UFA after this season.

 

[deleted user]

~~awwwooooo!!

Wolf is getting his shot.

 

[Lunatik]

~~awwwooooo!!

Wolf is getting his shot.

Pro-tip: 99% of rumors don't happen, and that estimate might be low when looking at unknowns on twitter

There are also rumors that the Avs have Signed Halak.

 

[deleted user]

Don't ruin this for me! Lol.

 

[DomBarr]

I actually think it might make sense for it to be Vladar for Francouz straight up if this is legit. Maybe a conditional pick based on how much Francouz does (or doesn't) play based on his injury.

IIRC the timeline for adductor surgery is usually about 3 months, so while it's being reported he may be out for the start of camp, he had the surgery in May, he's already 4 months into recovery and then we get teh added benefit of him being a UFA after this season.

I don't think it makes any sense to trade Vladar for another goalie even an injured one who is a pending UFA for a cap savings of $200K.
If they are trading Vladar its that 1) they need to clear the way for Wolf 2) the return is such that they can't say no to the deal 3) they get to clear more than a Million in cap.
Francouz being the return doesn't meet any of them.
That said it is the Flames so more likely you are right.

 

[Kranix]

Wtf is Aaron Itovich. Is he legit?

 

[super6646]

Wtf is Aaron Itovich. Is he legit?

Was posted on CP so I thought I would relay the information here. Might turn out to be false, but logically it's a move that makes sense for both teams.

 

[Fig]

I don't think it makes any sense to trade Vladar for another goalie even an injured one who is a pending UFA for a cap savings of $200K.
If they are trading Vladar its that 1) they need to clear the way for Wolf 2) the return is such that they can't say no to the deal 3) they get to clear more than a Million in cap.
Francouz being the return doesn't meet any of them.

???

This trade meets #1 because he'd be unavailable at the start of the season giving Wolf a chance. When he returns, Wolf can go down which aids easing Wolf in rather than potentially drowning him. This also meeting #1 again due to the UFA attribute of Francouz, so Wolf going down he knows he's just working on some stuff before perhaps a full time job starting next year as Markstrom's understudy (not too dissimilar to Rinne/Saros). It gives Wolf time but doesn't force a demand for a 80:20 or 60:40 split which is beneficial to him. Less pressure.

Sure it might not meet #2 at the surface level, but if the demand is we pay to move Vladar, then as long as we don't add to Vladar it might meet #2.

We don't meet #3, but at least it meets 20% of it if true. it would address the $212K overage that @Lunatik mentioned earlier.

It doesn't completely make sense for both sides, but it's not a scenario that doesn't completely make sense. That's why there's smoke around this idea.

 

[Lunatik]

I don't think it makes any sense to trade Vladar for another goalie even an injured one who is a pending UFA for a cap savings of $200K.
If they are trading Vladar its that 1) they need to clear the way for Wolf 2) the return is such that they can't say no to the deal 3) they get to clear more than a Million in cap.
Francouz being the return doesn't meet any of them.
That said it is the Flames so more likely you are right.

1) if the plan is for Wolf to see some time in the NHL this year but spend much of it in the AHL, Francouz's injury addresses that and would allow Wolf to start the year in the NHL.

2) Vladar doesn't have much value, especially right now.

3) It clears a year of contract. Might only save 200k this year, but we'd save 2.2 towards next year.

???

This trade meets #1 because he'd be unavailable at the start of the season giving Wolf a chance. When he returns, Wolf can go down which aids easing Wolf in rather than potentially drowning him. This also meeting #1 again due to the UFA attribute of Francouz, so Wolf going down he knows he's just working on some stuff before perhaps a full time job starting next year as Markstrom's understudy (not too dissimilar to Rinne/Saros). It gives Wolf time but doesn't force a demand for a 80:20 or 60:40 split which is beneficial to him. Less pressure.

Sure it might not meet #2 at the surface level, but if the demand is we pay to move Vladar, then as long as we don't add to Vladar it might meet #2.

We don't meet #3, but at least it meets 20% of it if true. it would address the $212K overage that @Lunatik mentioned earlier.

It doesn't completely make sense for both sides, but it's not a scenario that doesn't completely make sense. That's why there's smoke around this idea.

As for #3, we shed 2.2m for next season, so it's more than 20%

 

[deleted user]

I sure hope Wolf is unleashed. *⁠\⁠0⁠/⁠*

 

[super6646]

1) if the plan is for Wolf to see some time in the NHL this year but spend much of it in the AHL, Francouz's injury addresses that and would allow Wolf to start the year in the NHL.

2) Vladar doesn't have much value, especially right now.

3) It clears a year of contract. Might only save 200k this year, but we'd save 2.2 towards next year.


As for #3, we shed 2.2m for next season, so it's more than 20%

Would the cap hit only apply from the time Francouz came off LTIR (would be less than 2m in that case, kind of like contracts at the start of the season vs the deadline) or would the entire hit still apply from the moment of activation? If the former is the case, the savings would actually be even more helpful.

Worst case, you waive him to the AHL and you save an extra mil anyways.

 

[Fig]

Would the cap hit only apply from the time Francouz came off LTIR (would be less than 2m in that case, kind of like contracts at the start of the season vs the deadline) or would the entire hit still apply from the moment of activation? If the former is the case, the savings would actually be even more helpful.

Worst case, you waive him to the AHL and you save an extra mil anyways.

Oh wait, shit. I didn't factor for LTIR. @Lunatik did you?

That's a little over $250K extra over approximately a quarter of the season ($2 mil AAV vs $813K).

But waiving Francouz for Wolf wouldn't save you the extra mil because Wolf has to come up to do it. But I think you'd save around $250K when the $1.075M is factored in?

 

[Lunatik]

Would the cap hit only apply from the time Francouz came off LTIR (would be less than 2m in that case, kind of like contracts at the start of the season vs the deadline) or would the entire thing still apply? If the former is the case, the savings would would actually be even more helpful.

The entire hit would always count for the full season.

Contrary to what many think LTIR doesn't actually save/clear cap space. What is does do is open up a way to exceed the cap. Moving him to LTIR on opening day effectively would raise our cap by $2m until he is healthy. But it would allow us to run a full 23-man roster until he is healthy, and since we have a 6-game east coast road trip basically to start teh season, 23 bodies would be nice.

Oh wait, shit. I didn't factor for LTIR. @Lunatik did you?

That's a little over $250K extra over approximately a quarter of the season ($2 mil AAV vs $813K).

But waiving Francouz for Wolf wouldn't save you the extra mil because Wolf has to come up to do it. But I think you'd save around $250K when the $1.075M is factored in?

I had thought about it. I was just posting those thoughts when you posted.

 

[Fig]

The entire hit would always count for the full season.

Contrary to what many think LTIR doesn't actually save/clear cap space. What is does do is open up a way to exceed the cap. Moving him to LTIR on opening day effectively would raise our cap by $2m until he is healthy. But it would allow us to run a full 23-man roster until he is healthy, and since we have a 6-game east coast road trip basically to start teh season, 23 bodies would be nice.


I had thought about it. I was just posting those thoughts when you posted.

Isn't it more that we can exceed the cap by that amount? We'd lose the ability for cap accrual towards the TDL (if we actually had cap space), but it addresses the cap overage and we'd actually bring ourselves back onside with his LTIR calculation factored in on a game by game basis.

It's still useful for the Flames scenario at the beginning of the season, but a lot less so later on by the TDL. It's also not in the typical LTIR excess cap overage add a ton of players type of way, but somehow still useful for the Flames.

 

[Lunatik]

Isn't it more that we can exceed the cap by that amount? We'd lose the ability for cap accrual towards the TDL (if we actually had cap space), but it addresses the cap overage and we'd actually bring ourselves back onside with his LTIR calculation factored in on a game by game basis.

It's still useful for the Flames scenario at the beginning of the season, but a lot less so later on by the TDL. It's also not in the typical LTIR excess cap overage add a ton of players type of way, but somehow still useful for the Flames.

That's what I was saying., it allows us to exceed by 2m until he returns.

But in theory if we send down Oesterle and keep Wolf up and run with a 22-man roster (including Francouz) we would have almost 100k in cap space and accrue small amounts of space.

 

[Rubi]

If we get more than a 6th or 7th I'll be surprised

I expect Conroy is holding out for at least a 3rd.... from whoever.