Are you happy with the job Kyle Dubas has done since taking over as GM?

[lebdafor norris]

But he was close to McDavid at time of signing his post-ELC contract.

ES Points/60

McDavid: 2.89
Matthews: 2.72

ES Primary points/60

Matthews: 2.36
McDavid: 2.20

ES Goals/60

Matthews: 1.59
McDavid: 1.01

PP Points/60

Matthews: 6.47
McDavid: 6.44

PP Primary points/60

Matthews: 5.06
McDavid: 3.61

PP Goals/60

Matthews: 2.95
McDavid: 0.94

Are there his overall career numbers or his numbers during the small sample season? Because Natural Stat Trick is telling me a vastly different story or am I missing something here? If its their number during that season then you are contradicting yourself, you wrote a bunch of text of how inflate Domi's numbers can be because 1 season is not a big enough sample size yet you are using a smaller one?

 

[lebdafor norris]

16/17-18/19 (3 seasons)- ES p/60 (min 3000 TOI)
1) McDavid- 3.27
2)Kucherov- 3.09
3) Marchand- 3.06
4) Malkin- 2.95
5) Stammer- 2.87
6) J.Hockey- 2.83
7) Crosby- 2.8
8) Panarin- 2.76
9) Kane- 2.76
10) Matthews- 2.71

I guess I do owe p/60 an apology, much like baseball's BABIP it looks like it gives a somewhat accurate information if given a large enough sample size. But again much like Baseball's BABIP, 1 season is simply too small of a sample size and a player could easily have a deceivingly high p/60 much like how Conor Sheary LEAD the league in this stat during the 16/17 season. I guess that is how the Dubas supporters rationalized the contract, by picking specific time periods were AM's p/60 compares or surpass the likes of McDavid and Stamkos.

 

[justashadowof]

they'll only realize Dubas needs to be fired after he's fired . before they will support him regardless how bad the team does just like how they supported Burke until the bitter end

I do remember a ton of support for Burke and JFJ while they were obviously soiling the bed as Leafs' GM. I'm starting to see more dissent from trusting the GM from posters who definitely didn't start out against the guy. The pressure is building.

I'm really not sure that there are any magic moves available to be performed this off season to win back those losing faith in Dubas. I just had a conversation with an intense Leafs' fan old enough to remember the Cups as a child. This guy has always been the most optimistic and enthusiastic of fan believing many times over the years that various incarnations of the team was building to a Cup run. When he just said to me the other day that he doesn't think this current team has a chance to win a Cup, I was shocked. He has turned as hard as I have on this group and its management.

For me the seeds of my attitude towards the GM is that he almost universally identifies players on the team that I like as disposable: Kadri, Kapanen, Gardiner, Brown, Polak, Hainsey, McIlhenney, Komarov. But worse, he seems to like or believe in players like Ceci, Barrie, Kerfoot, Sparks, Petan, Malgin, Spezza.

 

[Dekes For Days]

ES points 17/19
Domi- 97 in 164 GP
Stamkos- 109 in 160 gp

I used a 2 season sample size on Domi's numbers to provide a larger sample size and during those 2 seasons he vastly outplayed the likes of Matthews, Eichel, Stammer and Kane if we are using p/60 to judge players.

That's not true. From NaturalStatTrick:

ES P/60, 2017-2019

Matthews: 2.95
Stamkos: 2.82
Kane: 2.79
Eichel: 2.55
Domi: 2.47

Domi is in last. And then we can't forget the other part of production:

PP P/60, 2017-2019

Stamkos: 7.75
Matthews: 6.43
Kane: 5.38
Eichel: 5.30
Domi: 2.82

Domi is far in last. Using P/60, we would conclude that Domi is not on the level of these other players. In fact, even in the smaller sample, we would conclude that when we consider both ES and PP, not to mention their underlying metrics, instead of just specifically 5v5.

Also regarding your previous post, Domi's ES p/60 is 2.5 not 2.29 during the last 3 seasons combined

That's also not true.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

And even with number, he still outperformed high producing players like Guentzel, Kessel, Backstrom and he actually tied with Eichel during that 3 year period according to good ol reliable p/60 stat.

That's also not true... From NaturalStatTrick:

ES P/60, 2017-2020

Eichel: 2.50
Guentzel: 2.47
Backstrom: 2.32
Domi: 2.29
Kessel: 2.06

The only one he outperformed at ES over the past 3 years was Kessel, and that's because Kessel completely fell off a cliff offensively at ES this year (with a 1.29 ES P/60). He's been staying afloat with that other part of production you keep forgetting, the PP:

PP P/60, 2017-2020

Kessel: 7.16
Eichel: 5.59
Backstrom: 5.10
Guentzel: 4.45
Domi: 3.16

Domi is far in last. Using P/60, we would once again conclude that Domi is not on the level of these other players.

Are there his overall career numbers or his numbers during the small sample season?

The Matthews/McDavid stats I posted are their career stats at time of signing their post-ELC contract. That is a 2 year sample for McDavid, and a 2 and a half year sample for Matthews. The entire available sample, not a small sample.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

The Leafs are a poorly constructed mess vs Tampa Bay.

 

[ToneDog]

The Leafs are a poorly constructed mess vs Tampa Bay.

View attachment 369510

Agreed but TB has some salary issues to address next year. Perhaps it will close the gap that seems to have widened since you know who took over.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Agreed but TB has some salary issues to address next year. Perhaps it will close the gap that seems to have widened since you know who took over.

Right cuz they were much closer when they had Komarov, Martin, PM, Polak, Zaitsev and Hainsey

 

[lebdafor norris]

That's not true. From NaturalStatTrick:

ES P/60, 2017-2019

Matthews: 2.95
Stamkos: 2.82
Kane: 2.79
Eichel: 2.55
Domi: 2.47

Domi is in last. And then we can't forget the other part of production:

PP P/60, 2017-2019

Stamkos: 7.75
Matthews: 6.43
Kane: 5.38
Eichel: 5.30
Domi: 2.82

Domi is far in last. Using P/60, we would conclude that Domi is not on the level of these other players. In fact, even in the smaller sample, we would conclude that when we consider both ES and PP, instead of just specifically 5v5.

That's also not true.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

That's also not true... From NaturalStatTrick:

ES P/60, 2017-2020

Eichel: 2.50
Guentzel: 2.47
Backstrom: 2.32
Domi: 2.29
Kessel: 2.06

The only one he outperformed at ES over the past 3 years was Kessel, and that's because Kessel completely fell off a cliff offensively at ES this year (with a 1.29 ES P/60). He's been staying afloat with that other part of production you keep forgetting, the PP:

PP P/60, 2017-2020

Kessel: 7.16
Eichel: 5.59
Backstrom: 5.10
Guentzel: 4.45
Domi: 3.16

Domi is far in last. Using P/60, we would once again conclude that Domi is not on the level of these other players.

The Matthews/McDavid stats I posted are their career stats at time of signing their post-ELC contract. That is a 2 year sample for McDavid, and a 2 and a half year sample for Matthews.

- I was using Domi's 2017 to 2019 numbers, not his numbers during 19/20 seasons, my post clearly pointed that out as none of the dates I posted as the numer 20 in it.

- McDavid's first 2 seasons were before the goalie equipment change and the 3 vs 3 OT rule. I mean c'mon their were a grand total of 5 80 point players during McDavid's rookie season compare to 28 during the 18/19 season. If Dubas wasn't bright enough to figure that himself then he doesn't deserve his reputation of being an analytic guy. Heck, if you put both McDavid and Drai in that period of dead puck hockey 2.0 (2010-2016), I'm not convince either of them could be consistent 100+ point guys like they are now.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I guess that is how the Dubas supporters rationalized the contract, by picking specific time periods were AM's p/60 compares or surpass the likes of McDavid and Stamkos.

The samples used were the entire multi-season pre-signing statistics for those players. That is not "picking specific time periods".

 

[HamiltonNHL]

but TB has some salary issues to address next year.

Now it becomes, do you want to take a bit of a pay cut to play on a team that reliably crushes other teams like the lowly, poorly constructed Leafs.

 

[ToneDog]

Right cuz they were much closer when they had Komarov, Martin, PM, Polak, Zaitsev and Hainsey

You don't think TB is much better today than they were to the Leafs team that lost the first 7 game series to Boston ??

Let's see they went on to win the SC and we went on to fail to make the playoffs. If that is not widening the gap, not sure what is.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Leafs had the top 3 salaries this year.

What a crap show.

 

[Trapper]

You don't think TB is much better today than they were to the Leafs team that lost the first 7 game series to Boston ??

Let's see they won the SC and we failed to make the playoffs. If that is not widening the gap, not sure what is.

Lou managed to make it to the 3rd round by throwing what people described as "crap" on the team.
Wouldn't at least one year of "crap" allowing these franchise guys the taste of winning a couple of playoff rounds for the future be worth it?

I mean, unless there is a greater problem at work.

 

[ShaneFalco]

You don't think TB is much better today than they were to the Leafs team that lost the first 7 game series to Boston ??

Let's see they went on to win the SC and we went on to fail to make the playoffs. If that is not widening the gap, not sure what is.

I don't think you can really compare. Irrelevant anyway as there are many factors involved, including goaltending.
TB was swept last year, made changes and look what they've done. Meanwhile some here want the whole team dismantled and everyone fired

 

[lebdafor norris]

The samples used were the entire multi-season pre-signing statistics for those players. That is not "picking specific time periods".

So because McDavid's p/60 numbers before the goalie equipment change (which saw a rise in 80 point players from a measly 5-7 during McDavid's rookie and sophmore year respectively to an incredible 21 players) is similar to AM's, therefore AM deserves the same $? Is that it then, we are just going to ignore the crucial changes that spiked elite scoring to pre 2010 era to justify AM's contract because McDavid in his rookie season was on pace for 3rd in the league scoring while he won the coveted Art Ross during his 2nd. Meanwhile AM's PPG during either his 1st or 2nd year wasn't good enough to be in the League's top 10. Context matters.

 

[ToneDog]

I don't think you can really compare. Irrelevant anyway as there are many factors involved, including goaltending.
TB was swept last year, made changes and look what they've done. Meanwhile some here want the whole team dismantled and everyone fired

Some here want to win

I do not see the team being dismantled but I can see many changes being made. Already Kappy, Ceci, Barrie gone. Andy and AJ have a foot out the door. Engvall, Kerfoot and Dermott could also be moved for the right price. All this is not necessarily bad but it will take some gelling.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Some here want to win

I do not see the team being dismantled but I can see many changes being made. Already Kappy, Ceci, Barrie gone. Andy and AJ have a foot out the door. Engvall, Kerfoot and Dermott could also be moved for the right price. All this is not necessarily bad but it will take some gelling.

If they don't make changes and show significant improvement, especially in the half-assed efforts area, I'll be the first to call for heads to roll. And I think Mitch needs to go. He'll never live up to that contract

 

[Trapper]

I don't think you can really compare. Irrelevant anyway as there are many factors involved, including goaltending.
TB was swept last year, made changes and look what they've done. Meanwhile some here want the whole team dismantled and everyone fired

You are a smart poster SAM and I respect what you post.

You hit the nail on the head with Tampa made changes. You have to go through 4 teams of different build/styles to win the Cup. Tampa beat Boston, lost to Columbus, probably have to face teams like Pittsburgh/Washington, throw in the Canes/Islanders and whoever is coming out of the West. Dallas, Vegas (heavy 4 lines), St. Louis the same etc.

I don't think moving 1 winger to address D and balance the team to be able to withstand 4/5 different opponents with various styles is asking for a dismantle.
We have too much the same weak sauce.

Matthews/JT. You have your big 2 centers here. The D and tandem goaltending needs to vastly improve.
The support staff and don't underestimate a solid, 2way 3rd line like Tampa/Dallas featured, needs upgrades.

With half a cap at your disposal, your job finding guys at league minimum to exceed max expectations if very, very difficult. Goat/Mich/etc. just aren't the guys. Holl/Dermott/Ceci/Barrie just aren't the answers.

You have to build a team around Matthews/JT/Rielly/another D. Skill,speed,forecheck,D,grit,etc. The 2 wingers are luxury money. If you have it at the end, you keep what you can. But build a team first and keep whichever winger(s), not pay 4 guys and try to build a team. We saw that. Kessel/JVR/Kadri/Phaneuf. Try to build a team. Build it first. You might have to move a Marner/Nylander. That's not a dismantle.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Dubas failed.
Accelerated rebuild.

He failed every deal. He needs to go for that. Shanny too.

This team regresses next year.

 

[ShaneFalco]

You might have to move a Marner/Nylander. That's not a dismantle.

Appreciate it ! I think inevitably, whether it's this year or next, one of them has to go. i didn't like the way the whole Marner camp conducted themselves and I think he's overpaid. He made his bed, he'd be the one to go for me

 

[Trapper]

Appreciate it ! I think inevitably, whether it's this year or next, one of them has to go. i didn't like the way the whole Marner camp conducted themselves and I think he's overpaid. He made his bed, he'd be the one to go for me

Marner is the logical choice.
Even Nylander at 6.9 might not be enough to properly balance a team.
Then Marner at 4 million more? 3 double digit forwards. Yeah, that's a little extreme for a complete team dynamic.
Even another forward (like a Filip Forsberg at 6 million) to go with Nylander on wing is a big savings from Marner at 11 million to fill out the team.
2 6 million dollar wingers to go with Matthews/JT gives you more flexibility moving forward. 12 million instead of almost 20.

 

[Dekes For Days]

- I was using Domi's 2017 to 2019 numbers, not his numbers during 19/20 seasons, my post clearly pointed that out as none of the dates I posted as the numer 20 in it.

The first stats I posted in that post were the combined 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 statistics, because that is the time period you specified when posting your Domi/Stamkos stats. Domi was behind the other players.

The 2nd group of stats I posted were the 3-year sample, in response to this post by you, discussing 3 year stats:

And even with number, he still outperformed high producing players like Guentzel, Kessel, Backstrom and he actually tied with Eichel during that 3 year period according to good ol reliable p/60 stat.

Domi was once again behind the other players.

McDavid's first 2 seasons were before the goalie equipment change and the 3 vs 3 OT rule. I mean c'mon their were a grand total of 5 80 point players during McDavid's rookie season compare to 28 during the 18/19 season. If Dubas wasn't bright enough to figure that himself then he doesn't deserve his reputation of being an analytic guy. Heck, if you put both McDavid and Drai in that period of dead puck hockey 2.0 (2010-2016), I'm not convince either of them could be consistent 100+ point guys like they are now.

Raw points over an arbitrary threshold is a pretty misleading way of comparing difficulty of scoring, especially considering you're comparing the furthest apart years, including half of a year that isn't even relevant because it came after the signing.

Even if we are to assume that league scoring rates are factored into contracts (haven't seen much evidence of this from anybody, not just Dubas), the extent that league scoring rates actually changed is grossly exaggerated, and it's not a direct correlation with difficulty of scoring. Only part of the actual change is because of external factors like equipment/OT. We're also in a period of high talent, after a dry spell from weaker drafts and significant injuries to high-end players. It wasn't just conversion caused by equipment changes; shots and chance generation also increased because of the influx of high-end talent, leading to part of the scoring increase.

But.. for the sake of the argument, let's assume that the entire change in league scoring rates is caused by external factors, and let's assume that GM/agents adjust for league scoring rates for contracts, and adjust McDavid's scoring to the league scoring rate for Matthews' sample:

ES Points/60

McDavid: 3.05
Matthews: 2.72

ES Primary points/60

Matthews: 2.36
McDavid: 2.33

ES Goals/60

Matthews: 1.59
McDavid: 1.07

PP Points/60

McDavid: 6.67
Matthews: 6.47

PP Primary points/60

Matthews: 5.06
McDavid: 3.74

PP Goals/60

Matthews: 2.95
McDavid: 0.97

It still wouldn't change all that much. McDavid the better point producer. Matthews the better primary point and goal producer, with a good case to be paid a similar amount.

We should also remember that McDavid is a great value contract historically, due to the 750k discount McDavid gave on the negotiated amount, so even if you wanted to argue that Matthews' contract is worse than McDavid's, that doesn't make Matthews' contract bad.

 

[justashadowof]

We can't predict what moves get made this off season. Maybe Dubas surprises us skeptics and assembles a balanced hockey club in less than a month. I'm not optimistic but we can't comment on moves that haven't been made yet.

 

[kb]

Now it becomes, do you want to take a bit of a pay cut to play on a team that reliably crushes other teams like the lowly, poorly constructed Leafs.

The people currently signed can't take a pay cut, and the RFA's will laugh in their face about taking a shit deal after winning them a cup.

$5 million left with key RFA's to sign, and everyone besides Point with NMC or NTC contracts.

One and done. Hope they enjoyed it.

 

[kb]

Dubas failed.
Accelerated rebuild.

View attachment 369515

He failed every deal. He needs to go for that. Shanny too.

This team regresses next year.

Wow, you certainly spend a lot of time on your BS, I'll hand you that.

But it's still utter BS.