Are you happy with the job Kyle Dubas has done since taking over as GM?

[egd27]

He needs the balls to move one of the big guys and I don't think he has them as that would admit he messed up all those contracts and they are 'his guys'.

I think that's only half the issue.

If he decides he can muster up the courage to move one of the big guys, he still needs to replace them with the right type of players that could be effective during a deep playoff run.

IMO he has not shown an ability to identify these types of players.

 

[Havoc]

After watching the majority of playoff games I would have to say if Dubas stays true to his vision we are going in the wrong direction and that vision will require major eye surgery from another GM.

Right now I just can't see this team winning a 7 game series against most of the teams that made it and I don't see Dubas fixing the D or replacing Freddy with another goalie as good or better.

He needs the balls to move one of the big guys and I don't think he has them as that would admit he messed up all those contracts and they are 'his guys'.

Please elaborate.

Why can't Leafs match Tampa's bottom 6?

Why can't Leafs find Bogo's and Shattenkirks after getting Rielly a partner?

Why can't Leafs match ELC contracts like Cirelli and Cernak when we have Sandin and Robertson looking like keepers. Sandin's ceiling for impact is higher than Cernaks.

Why can't a guy like Simmonds come in for 900k and have at least Maroon level impact?

Why can't Marner have a huge playoffs next season just like Point rebounded from his 1 point performance that helped his team get swept by the jackets? That's all Tampa did last season. Help the jackets win by looking like ass.

Why can't all 3 of Matthews, Marner and Nylander be even better next season? Leaf players don't get better right? It only happens for other teams in the league apparently. Who cares Nylander became a 30 goal scorer. Fluke. It's not evidence Marner can go back to his usual dominant self just like Nylander found his game.

You won't be able to elaborate. Guaranteed. It'll be some shallow reply based off emotion and not related at all to how Tampa's team came to be over the span of 10 years.



The hot takes on this board suck. You learn absolutely nothing. It's just a bunch of posters salty over young kids making too much money and you're forced to watch them cry about it. Who cares. There's no one on the team who fits the profile of being overpaid and low quality. Our overpaid players are superstars. It's not even plural. Marner is the only overpaid one and it's not even that much. 1.5-2 mil max.

Tampa could have ran an internal budget less than the salary cap and still have won. Just take that in if you ever find yourself in a heated debate over Matthews taking 3% more of the teams cap than his comparable. Definitely need to split this Matthews scrub into multiple assets instead

 

[The CyNick]

Source?

Source for what?

 

[A1LeafNation]

Source for what?

For all that bullshit that Burke was a company man and following orders.

 

[Zarley Zalapski]

Which player stands out?

Out of the 4 players referenced? Well, that depends....
When looking at their contracts, Matthews stands out. His post ELC contract was 20% higher than Stamkos' and 25% higher than the deals Toews and Kane got (measured by AAV).

When looking at postseason success, Matthews also stands out. Toews and Kane reached the WCF in their 2nd season and won the SC in the final year of their ELCs and Stamkos reached the WCF in the final year of his entry level contract. Matthews has never been out of the first round.

When looking at total point production, Stamkos and Kane stand out. (see blow)
Point production over their first 3 seasons
1) Stamkos 232 points
2) Kane 230 points
3) Matthews 205 points
4) Toews 191

When Looking at goal scoring, Stamkos stands out. (see below)
Goals scored in first 3 seasons
1) Stamkos 119
2) Matthews 111
3) Toews 83
4) Kane 76

When looking at your stats, Matthews stands out

 

[The CyNick]

Please elaborate.

Why can't Leafs match Tampa's bottom 6?

Why can't Leafs find Bogo's and Shattenkirks after getting Rielly a partner?

Why can't Leafs match ELC contracts like Cirelli and Cernak when we have Sandin and Robertson looking like keepers. Sandin's ceiling for impact is higher than Cernaks.

Why can't a guy like Simmonds come in for 900k and have at least Maroon level impact?

Why can't Marner have a huge playoffs next season just like Point rebounded from his 1 point performance that helped his team get swept by the jackets? That's all Tampa did last season. Help the jackets win by looking like ass.

Why can't all 3 of Matthews, Marner and Nylander be even better next season? Leaf players don't get better right? It only happens for other teams in the league apparently. Who cares Nylander became a 30 goal scorer. Fluke. It's not evidence Marner can go back to his usual dominant self just like Nylander found his game.

You won't be able to elaborate. Guaranteed. It'll be some shallow reply based off emotion and not related at all to how Tampa's team came to be over the span of 10 years.



The hot takes on this board suck. You learn absolutely nothing. It's just a bunch of posters salty over young kids making too much money and you're forced to watch them cry about it. Who cares. There's no one on the team who fits the profile of being overpaid and low quality. Our overpaid players are superstars. It's not even plural. Marner is the only overpaid one and it's not even that much. 1.5-2 mil max.

Tampa could have ran an internal budget less than the salary cap and still have won. Just take that in if you ever find yourself in a heated debate over Matthews taking 3% more of the teams cap than his comparable. Definitely need to split this Matthews scrub into multiple assets instead

If you can watch Tampa play and watch the Leafs play and think we're a couple players away, its tough to debate with you. Leafs have nothing close to a Hedman. Don't have a deep D 1-6. Don't have stars who sacrifice their body or play a heavy style of hockey. They don't have have a GM who recognizes that having water bugs throughout your lineup is not a recipe for success. I couldn't think of a team more vastly different than Tampa than the Leafs.

 

[egd27]

Please elaborate.

Why can't Leafs match Tampa's bottom 6?

Why can't Leafs find Bogo's and Shattenkirks after getting Rielly a partner?

Why can't Leafs match ELC contracts like Cirelli and Cernak when we have Sandin and Robertson looking like keepers. Sandin's ceiling for impact is higher than Cernaks.

Why can't a guy like Simmonds come in for 900k and have at least Maroon level impact?

Why can't Marner have a huge playoffs next season just like Point rebounded from his 1 point performance that helped his team get swept by the jackets? That's all Tampa did last season. Help the jackets win by looking like ass.

Why can't all 3 of Matthews, Marner and Nylander be even better next season? Leaf players don't get better right? It only happens for other teams in the league apparently. Who cares Nylander became a 30 goal scorer. Fluke. It's not evidence Marner can go back to his usual dominant self just like Nylander found his game.

You won't be able to elaborate. Guaranteed. It'll be some shallow reply based off emotion and not related at all to how Tampa's team came to be over the span of 10 years.

Anything is possible, but that sure is a long list of "why can'ts" that have to happen.

 

[bodechek]

There is obviously something wrong with the way the team was built this past season. Whether Dubas makes changes (or not) this off season to get his team further will dictate if he should stay or go.

 

[stopclickbait]

Please elaborate.

Why can't Leafs match Tampa's bottom 6?

Why can't Leafs find Bogo's and Shattenkirks after getting Rielly a partner?

Why can't Leafs match ELC contracts like Cirelli and Cernak when we have Sandin and Robertson looking like keepers. Sandin's ceiling for impact is higher than Cernaks.

Why can't a guy like Simmonds come in for 900k and have at least Maroon level impact?

Why can't Marner have a huge playoffs next season just like Point rebounded from his 1 point performance that helped his team get swept by the jackets? That's all Tampa did last season. Help the jackets win by looking like ass.

Why can't all 3 of Matthews, Marner and Nylander be even better next season? Leaf players don't get better right? It only happens for other teams in the league apparently. Who cares Nylander became a 30 goal scorer. Fluke. It's not evidence Marner can go back to his usual dominant self just like Nylander found his game.

You won't be able to elaborate. Guaranteed. It'll be some shallow reply based off emotion and not related at all to how Tampa's team came to be over the span of 10 years.



The hot takes on this board suck. You learn absolutely nothing. It's just a bunch of posters salty over young kids making too much money and you're forced to watch them cry about it. Who cares. There's no one on the team who fits the profile of being overpaid and low quality. Our overpaid players are superstars. It's not even plural. Marner is the only overpaid one and it's not even that much. 1.5-2 mil max.

Tampa could have ran an internal budget less than the salary cap and still have won. Just take that in if you ever find yourself in a heated debate over Matthews taking 3% more of the teams cap than his comparable. Definitely need to split this Matthews scrub into multiple assets instead

Keep fighting the good fight. I doubt you will ever get a sincere reply to this ever. I think some kids would rather see the Leafs lose as long as Dubas is the GM. The amount of garbage posts is alarming but its always by the same people.

 

[Dreakmur]

Keep fighting the good fight. I doubt you will ever get a sincere reply to this ever. I think some kids would rather see the Leafs lose as long as Dubas is the GM. The amount of garbage posts is alarming but its always by the same people.

Not a whole lot of middle ground around here. Seems to be camp cynic vs camp naive on just about every issue.

 

[ToneDog]

Not a whole lot of middle ground around here. Seems to be camp cynic vs camp naive on just about every issue.

Nicely put, yeah I am not a Dubas fanboy today but my opinion would change pretty swiftly if they won a fricken round.

 

[egd27]

Nicely put, yeah I am not a Dubas fanboy today but my opinion would change pretty swiftly if they won a fricken round.

Agreed.

Or if he can land us AP through a creative sign an trade or some other method other than just spend spend spend I'd also feel more confident in him.

 

[Mess]

I wished our current GM could do for my Leafs what our former GM is doing for the NYIs, and earning Exec of the year recognition by his fellow GMs for his achievements and accomplishments. You have to wonder WHAT IF we didn't change GMs while on top.

I measure a GM's performance by the results of the team he manages and their success or failure, believing this is results oriented business. The name of the GM is irrelevant its all about the results.

When you're hoping your GM is making moves that improves on losing in round #1 base line minimum floor, and the team fails to even qualify for the playoffs it doesn't take a forensics expert to tell me that is a disappointing outcome and thus GM performance.

If the team does well the GM is doing well, and when the teams struggles and fails then that is reflected on GM performance and team building and cap management and other issues come into question as to why expectations are not being met.

 

[Trapper]

Not a whole lot of middle ground around here. Seems to be camp cynic vs camp naive on just about every issue.

The next year or 2 should be interesting.

You cannot argue or deny success or lack of.

It doesn’t care who you trade or keep, it doesn’t care about advanced stats. The sum of the parts is either built for success or not.

 

[Cams]

I wished our current GM could do for my Leafs that our former GM is doing for the NYIs, and earning Exec of the year recognition by his fellow GMs for his achievements and accomplishments.

I measure a GM's performance by the results of the team he manages and their success or failure, believing this is results oriented business. The name of the GM is irrelevant its all about the results.

When you're hoping your GM is making moves that improves on losing in round #1 base line minimum floor, and the team fails to even qualify for the playoffs it doesn't take a forensics expert to tell me that is a disappointing outcome and thus GM performance.

If the team does well the GM is doing well, and when the teams struggles and fails then that is reflected on GM performance and team building and cap management and other issues come into question as to why expectations are not being met.

Which is what..... a participation ribbon - nobody really cares who made the conf finals at the end of the season. The same guy that didn't get results in Toronto during his time in charge, of a team in a much different state in terms of "going for it"? It's not as cut and dry as you want it to be. What did your forensics team say was the cause of Lou's Leafs not making it past round #1? Really....comparing the 2 right now - they've both won as many Cups......after all that's what the real end game is, is it not?

Maybe it was match up luck? NYI had 1 less pt and yet got to play Florida. Play the season out and the NYI may not have even made the playoffs (same as MTL) - but let's not go extolling the virtues of Bergevin because he "got out of the 1st round", or for his great team building abilities. Remember this....going into the stoppage, the NYI were an amazing 2 W in their final 13 games! Mind you those 2 wins came against league powerhouses Detroit and San Jose.

Also......talk about the most boring hockey that can be played. Between them and Columbus....... it's like watching two teams who know they can't score and just hang on and defend the other team to death, hope to get a 1 g lead and hang on for dear life. Kind of like Lou's Devils back in the mid 90s (except the Devils actually won something).

 

[Dekes For Days]

2016-2019

Why are you looking at McDavid's D+1-4 and comparing it to Matthews' D+0-3, especially when that's not either's pre-signing period? What McDavid did between 2016-2019 is irrelevant. What matters is what both players did during their respective pre-signing periods, and I have provided that for you, and even adjusted it based on league average scoring rates, at your request. Nothing changes the fact that Matthews was comparable to McDavid at time of signing.

Matthews was not the better primary point producer

Yes, he was, as I showed. He was the better primary point producer at both ES and PP, regardless of whether or not we adjust for league scoring rates. He was also trending as a generational goal scorer, and still is.

Also using league adjusted stat is pretty flawed in this scenario as the increase in goal scoring wasn't uniform at all as despite the massive surge in elite scoring, league average actually "only went up" by around .25 goals despite. So the changes were actually more beneficial to skilled elite players instead of the 40 point grinder, hence why I find it more useful to compare these guys relative to their peers. I.E. whatever adjustments you made is a gross understatement of the actual reality really is

No, the adjustments I made were not a "gross understatement" of the reality. They are way, way more accurate than looking at numbers of players above some arbitrary threshold, which is literally useless.

The reality is, the difference from the things you said we needed to account for like equipment changes, were the same impact for everybody, but that impact was minimal; way less than people around here seem to think. League scoring rates didn't actually change all that much. As explained, more players in the top-end bracket is not a result of league scoring changes; they are a result of a mix of internal factors, such as an influx of talent, and evolving coaching behaviours, like line composition and increased TOI for stars (which is why it's so apparent in top-end raw points).

You're basically asking current stars to be paid less because current stars are taking on more responsibility than past stars. That's so backwards I don't even know what to say...

Besides the reasons why McDavid was so much ahead of Matthews in secondary assist in the 1st place was because of how much more impact he has when he is on the ice and how much better he is at controlling the game.

If that was true, he'd be getting more primary points, not less primary and more secondary... They had very comparable on-ice GF/60 at both ES and PP, especially when we consider that Matthews had to deal with split PP units for 80% of his pre-signing sample.

Secondary assist is still a valuable stat

Highly debatable. Most studies on the "value" of a secondary assist place it somewhere around 5 times less valuable than a goal/primary assist, and they're not nearly as repeatable.

I mean Corry Perry's primary ES stats from the shortened 2013 season until the 2014-2015 season (3 seasons) was actually .17 higher than Crosby's while also having a p/60 stat that was good enough to land him in 3rd place (better than AM) during that time period, yet not even Cory Perry himself will tell you that he was better than Sid during that period in time when everyone regarded Crosby as the best forward in the world. PRIMARY POINTS IS NOT EVERYTHING.

Nobody said primary points are everything. That's why I'm saying Matthews was comparable to McDavid at that point in time, not Matthews was way better than McDavid. But they are also not nothing. They are part of the picture, just like points.

As for Crosby and Perry, Perry was quite good back then at ES. He also played with Getzlaf, who placed just ahead of him in ES P/60, which boosted both of their ES totals relative to Crosby, who didn't play with anybody like that. Crosby was also just coming off his years of major injury/concussion problems, and had barely played in the previous 2 seasons. Crosby was also better on the PP, which again, you keep leaving out...

PP Primary points/60, 2012-2015

Crosby: 4.08
Perry: 2.62

Overall, Crosby was still the better point and primary point producer during those years.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Please elaborate.

Why can't Leafs match Tampa's bottom 6?

Why can't Leafs find Bogo's and Shattenkirks after getting Rielly a partner?

Why can't Leafs match ELC contracts like Cirelli and Cernak when we have Sandin and Robertson looking like keepers. Sandin's ceiling for impact is higher than Cernaks.

Why can't a guy like Simmonds come in for 900k and have at least Maroon level impact?

Why can't Marner have a huge playoffs next season just like Point rebounded from his 1 point performance that helped his team get swept by the jackets? That's all Tampa did last season. Help the jackets win by looking like ass.

Why can't all 3 of Matthews, Marner and Nylander be even better next season? Leaf players don't get better right? It only happens for other teams in the league apparently. Who cares Nylander became a 30 goal scorer. Fluke. It's not evidence Marner can go back to his usual dominant self just like Nylander found his game.

You won't be able to elaborate. Guaranteed. It'll be some shallow reply based off emotion and not related at all to how Tampa's team came to be over the span of 10 years.



The hot takes on this board suck. You learn absolutely nothing. It's just a bunch of posters salty over young kids making too much money and you're forced to watch them cry about it. Who cares. There's no one on the team who fits the profile of being overpaid and low quality. Our overpaid players are superstars. It's not even plural. Marner is the only overpaid one and it's not even that much. 1.5-2 mil max.

Tampa could have ran an internal budget less than the salary cap and still have won. Just take that in if you ever find yourself in a heated debate over Matthews taking 3% more of the teams cap than his comparable. Definitely need to split this Matthews scrub into multiple assets instead

Leafs could've had Bogosian. Dubas said no. Need a new GM if you want Bogosian.

 

[The CyNick]

For all that bullshit that Burke was a company man and following orders.

Really? It defeats the purpose of being a company man if you say one thing in an interview and then later say oh no that was BS, I was just being a company man.

Ask around if you don't believe me. As I said in another post, this isn't the Senate, I'm not here to expose where I get information from. If you think what I am saying is BS, then move along and respond to someone else.

 

[supermann_98]

He needs the balls to move one of the big guys and I don't think he has them as that would admit he messed up all those contracts and they are 'his guys'.

Agreed unfortunately. Nylander and Mitch are his boys. Overpay them, expect a lot from them, but ultimately defend them when they fail time and time again.

He painted himself into a corner with his promises to them that they won't be traded, and although MLSE is swimming in money, I'm sure the bean counters are monitoring how much they're paying out in bonuses, only to be repaid by a gutless team that couldn't even make the final 16.

 

[Dekes For Days]

When looking at their contracts, Matthews stands out.

When looking at your stats, Matthews stands out

Exactly. In both the contracts, and the relevant stats, Matthews stands out. That's how it should be. Matthews is the best player of that group, and thus he gets the biggest contract.

The things you referenced were meaningless. You referenced post-season team success, which has nothing to do with the contracts. You referenced time periods (for production and team success) that were after they signed, which has zero relevance to the contracts. You're not even accounting for games played, let alone TOI impacts in your production, so you're clearly not being serious.

 

[RoadWarrior]

Not a fan of the Tavares signing or the Kadri trade. However I think he's done a great job scouting and drafting.

He needs to start assigning some value to physicality and character in players.

 

[moon111]

Who here would like $810,00 dollars?

Know I sure would. In a league were they're trying to make things 'fair' the fact is, a player in Toronto needs a higher salary to offset the higher taxes. So when Dubas is paying Nylander $6 million, the take home is way less playing for Toronto then some other places. $2,816,433

If Nylander plays for one of the teams that has an unfair advantage like Tampa Bay or Dallas, sure he would agree to get paid 'less' - it's the same take-home. If the Leafs paid the same taxes as Cup finalists, instead of $700,000 Marincin, the Leafs can afford a Kevin Shattenkirk, Tyler Meyers, Anton Stralman, etc.

Don't think we should judge Dubas so hard on some of these salaries as much as throw shade on Gary Bettman's rigged hockey league that heavily favors teams that get an extra few quality players compared to other teams.

 

[hotpaws]

Who here would like $810,00 dollars?

Know I sure would. In a league were they're trying to make things 'fair' the fact is, a player in Toronto needs a higher salary to offset the higher taxes. So when Dubas is paying Nylander $6 million, the take home is way less playing for Toronto then some other places. $2,816,433

If Nylander plays for one of the teams that has an unfair advantage like Tampa Bay or Dallas, sure he would agree to get paid 'less' - it's the same take-home. If the Leafs paid the same taxes as Cup finalists, instead of $700,000 Marincin, the Leafs can afford a Kevin Shattenkirk, Tyler Meyers, Anton Stralman, etc.

Don't think we should judge Dubas so hard on some of these salaries as much as throw shade on Gary Bettman's rigged hockey league that heavily favors teams that get an extra few quality players compared to other teams.

the non state tax advantage is just another lame excuse to defend incompetent mgmt

the only non state tax team whose players sign for discounts is Tampa and i'm getting tired of people on this board speaking like their experts in the field and know the actual taxes these players pay

also the Leafs with there huge fan base are one a few teams able to hand out massive front loaded bonuses which not only allows a player to make money off more of there money quicker but also makes the contract buyout/lockout proof yet these advantages we have are ignored so Leaf nation can endlessly play the victim

 

[egd27]

Exactly. In both the contracts, and the relevant stats, Matthews stands out. That's how it should be. Matthews is the best player of that group, and thus he gets the biggest contract.

The things you referenced were meaningless. You referenced post-season team success, which has nothing to do with the contracts. You referenced time periods (for production and team success) that were after they signed, which has zero relevance to the contracts. You're not even accounting for games played, let alone TOI impacts in your production, so you're clearly not being serious.

No they weren't.

They were every bit as meaningful the the things you posted. They just told a different story than the one you were trying to tell.

 

[Dekes For Days]

They were every bit as meaningful the the things you posted.

They were not. It was useless information for the purposes of our discussion. It was team results from incorrect time-frames, and raw production from incorrect time-frames, both without even the most basic context, even games played. That is not proper player evaluation for the purposes of determining contract valuation.

I have posted a very detailed and thorough breakdown of these players, and their play and production over the proper time-frames prior to signing, and included the necessary context. I have also given substantial explanation for anything not understood, and done adjustments at request.

The fact is, Matthews' contract fits well within his comparables.