Are the Jackets finally on the cusp of something great ?

[CBJx614]

Our view of our veterans gets thrown off to some just because of last year. Its funny how different teams can view their own outlook. There was recently a U24 poll of Columbus vs Montreal in the mains which Columbus won but it was a good debate. Montreal fans (large fan base so a large number of delusional fans but still) are extremely excited for the future because of their young guys. Meanwhile we have people hesitant to be excited about a better group and then factor in the vets over 24 it becomes Laine, Gaudreau, Jenner, Werenski, Severson, Provorov vs Anderson, Savard, Dvorak, Matheson and Gallagher yet as a fanbase they can allow themselves to find more joy when looking to the future while some here will forever remain pessimistic

The "Ohio pro sports teams are forever doomed" mindset in Ohio is VERY real

 

[stevo61]

The "Ohio pro sports teams are forever doomed" mindset in Ohio is VERY real

Which is probably why they get dumped on so much. Its incredibly weird as an outsider to see the mentality and sensitivity, I dont understand it.
I more share a mentality like Babcock with his recent interview that was shared here. When it was said NJ, NY and Carolina dont worry about Columbus and he might like that he smirked and said there you go. I think a mentality of the people and on ice play has to change because noone cares how many times people say how nice or big Columbus is

 

[BB88]

I'm not sure if you followed the team then. They had a lot of decent NHL players like Malhotra (led the NHL in face-off % for several years), Vyborny ( very underrated skilled playmaking forward), Adam Foote ( a previous All Star and Norris finalist),Ron Hainsey, -I could go on - and a lot of highly regarded prospects. Those teams had proven players and highly regarded prospects. They also had questionable coaching and a dysfunctional front office.

I don't want this team to stay bad. I'd like to see a program where the team is usually in the thick of things, as an example an operation like the Bruins. I once thought we were on the cusp of that from 2016-20. I was wrong.

I hope they can build an operation like this. I'm not hoping they suck or looking to tell anyone "I told you so." I just want some tangible evidence that the potential turns into years of 100+ points and deep playoff runs. I bought season tickets and attended 40+ games per season for years. I'd love to see an operation that's unlike anything I've yet seen in Columbus. Let's see what happens.

Okay so you are just now listing players.

If we talk about Dmen is there a difference if we talk about Werenski caliber Dmen and Gubranson type of Dmen or is it just the same, they are players?

I’ll ask once again.
Give me a year when they had

Gaudreau (6 years left on his contract) a superstar
Werenski( 5 years left on his contract) 1D
Laine (3 years)
Severson (8 years)
Provorov
Jenner (3 years)
Proven players

+
Fantilli, Eichel caliber prospect (have never had)
Jiricek, franchise Dprospect
Johnson, potential 1C/1W
Mateychuk
Svozil
Marchenko
Dumais
Sillinger
Voronkov
Chinakhov
etc
Prospect pool.

I don’t want some random names, give me a year when they’ve had a set up like this before, proven superstar players, core players locked up longterm and top 2/3 prospect pool in the entire league.
The answer again is never, they’ve never been in similar situation.

You can’t simply answer to Fantilli by mentioning an inferior prospect/player

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

The "Ohio pro sports teams are forever doomed" mindset in Ohio is VERY real

There’s only one pro sports team in Ohio I give any f***s for. Nothing wrong with wait and see mindset with this team.

 

[koteka]

How many of our veterans have played in a Staley Cup finals? How many have played in a Conference finals?

Kurally was on Boston when they lost to the Blues. Has anyone else ever been to the conference finals?

We have some veterans with great talent. We don’t have veterans with a much experience with deep NHL playoff runs on this roster.

 

[Cowumbus]

Gaudreau (6 years left on his contract) a superstar
Werenski( 5 years left on his contract) 1D
Laine (3 years)
Severson (8 years)
Provorov
Jenner (3 years)
Proven players

+
Fantilli, Eichel caliber prospect (have never had)
Jiricek, franchise Dprospect
Johnson, potential 1C/1W
Mateychuk
Svozil
Marchenko
Dumais
Sillinger
Voronkov
Chinakhov
etc
Prospect pool.

I don’t want some random names, give me a year when they’ve had a set up like this before, proven superstar players, core players locked up longterm and top 2/3 prospect pool in the entire league.
The answer again is never, they’ve never been in similar situation.

You can’t simply answer to Fantilli by mentioning an inferior prospect/player

I don’t have a dog in this fight but…

2016 on the roster
#1D in Seth Jones
3 50+ point wingers in Saad, Foligno, Atkinson
A young Boone Jenner
A Vezina caliber goalie in Bobrovsky
21yo #2C in Wennberg
#3D David Savard
#2/3C in Dubinsky
#3/4D Jack Johnson
21yo Ryan Murray coming off a great season


Prospects:
2016
Rank | Player | Position
#1 |Zach Werenski|D
#2 |Pierre-Luc Dubois|LW
#3 |Oliver Bjorkstrand|RW
#4 |Joonas Korpisalo|G
#5 |Sonny Milano|LW
#6 |Josh Anderson|RW
#7 |Gabriel Carlsson|D
#8 |Anton Forsberg|G
#9 |Vitaly Abramov|RW
#10 |Paul Bittner|LW
#11 |Keegan Kolesar|RW
#12 |Daniel Zaar|RW
#13 |Dean Kukan|D
#14 |Markus Nutivaara|D
#15 |Vladislav Gavrikov|D
#16 |Elvis Merzlikins|G
#17 |Dillon Heatherington|D
#18 |Andrew Peeke|D
#19 |Veeti Vainio|D
#20 |Markus Hannikainen|LW

 

[stevo61]

I don’t have a dog in this fight but…

2016 on the roster
#1D in Seth Jones
3 50+ point wingers in Saad, Foligno, Atkinson
A young Boone Jenner
A Vezina caliber goalie in Bobrovsky
21yo #2C in Wennberg
#3D David Savard
#2/3C in Dubinsky
#3/4D Jack Johnson
21yo Ryan Murray coming off a great season


Prospects:
2016
Rank | Player | Position
#1 |Zach Werenski|D
#2 |Pierre-Luc Dubois|LW
#3 |Oliver Bjorkstrand|RW
#4 |Joonas Korpisalo|G
#5 |Sonny Milano|LW
#6 |Josh Anderson|RW
#7 |Gabriel Carlsson|D
#8 |Anton Forsberg|G
#9 |Vitaly Abramov|RW
#10 |Paul Bittner|LW
#11 |Keegan Kolesar|RW
#12 |Daniel Zaar|RW
#13 |Dean Kukan|D
#14 |Markus Nutivaara|D
#15 |Vladislav Gavrikov|D
#16 |Elvis Merzlikins|G
#17 |Dillon Heatherington|D
#18 |Andrew Peeke|D
#19 |Veeti Vainio|D
#20 |Markus Hannikainen|LW

No star forwards until the Panarin trade. These names were the foundation of the only time we've seen a playoff team for multiple years in a row though

 

[Cowumbus]

No star forwards until the Panarin trade. These names were the foundation of the only time we've seen a playoff team for multiple years in a row though

We have ONE star forward now. Okay so apply the exact same thing to 2017/18.

Then add Texier, Bemstrom, Tarasov, Foudy, Marchenko to the prospect pool

 

[stevo61]

Okay so apply the exact same thing to 2017/18…

Then add Texier, Bemstrom, Tarasov, Foudy, Marchenko to the prospect pool

Our only consistantly good roster. No offensive prospects with the offensive upside of Fantilli or Johnson though. More gritty and 2 way roster, a big what if in terms of what could have been had that roster had another year. Current group is set up to have more time to settle into whatever it will be

 

[Marioesque]

We have ONE star forward now.

Oh? What's the definition of a star then?

 

[Cowumbus]

Our only consistantly good roster. No offensive prospects with the offensive upside of Fantilli or Johnson though. More gritty and 2 way roster, a big what if in terms of what could have been had that roster had another year. Current group is set up to have more time to settle into whatever it will be

My main issue is that we have had plenty of years where our prospect pool was considered very strong or even the best. Have we ever had a prospect as highly ranked as Fantilli? Probably depends who you ask. However, people citing prospects that have yet to make the NHL need to think back and recall guys like Abramov, Bemstrom, and all the strong prospect classes we have had before with later round picks looking to have high upside.

Do I think it could be the best prospect pool we have had? Sure. As prospects (in a 3 year CBJ draft grouping), Milano/Werenski/Carlsson/Dubois looked really strong.

Oh? What's the definition of a star then?

A player who can score over 90 points in a season, and is consistent in their GP/production year over year ——-> Gaudreau.

***

It’s scary to think how much of our future relies on Fantilli, Jiricek and Johnson (in that order) working out.

 

[Marioesque]

A player who can score over 90 points in a season, and is consistent in their GP/production year over year ——-> Gaudreau.

***

Even he doesn't live up to that standard because his production wasn't consistent. It dropped like 40 pts in a season. So by your definition I don't think we have even one.

 

[MoeBartoli]

Okay so you are just now listing players.

If we talk about Dmen is there a difference if we talk about Werenski caliber Dmen and Gubranson type of Dmen or is it just the same, they are players?

I’ll ask once again.
Give me a year when they had

Gaudreau (6 years left on his contract) a superstar
Werenski( 5 years left on his contract) 1D
Laine (3 years)
Severson (8 years)
Provorov
Jenner (3 years)
Proven players

+
Fantilli, Eichel caliber prospect (have never had)
Jiricek, franchise Dprospect
Johnson, potential 1C/1W
Mateychuk
Svozil
Marchenko
Dumais
Sillinger
Voronkov
Chinakhov
etc
Prospect pool.

I don’t want some random names, give me a year when they’ve had a set up like this before, proven superstar players, core players locked up longterm and top 2/3 prospect pool in the entire league.
The answer again is never, they’ve never been in similar situation.

You can’t simply answer to Fantilli by mentioning an inferior prospect/player

I don’t have a dog in this fight but…

2016 on the roster
#1D in Seth Jones
3 50+ point wingers in Saad, Foligno, Atkinson
A young Boone Jenner
A Vezina caliber goalie in Bobrovsky
21yo #2C in Wennberg
#3D David Savard
#2/3C in Dubinsky
#3/4D Jack Johnson
21yo Ryan Murray coming off a great season


Prospects:
2016
Rank | Player | Position
#1 |Zach Werenski|D
#2 |Pierre-Luc Dubois|LW
#3 |Oliver Bjorkstrand|RW
#4 |Joonas Korpisalo|G
#5 |Sonny Milano|LW
#6 |Josh Anderson|RW
#7 |Gabriel Carlsson|D
#8 |Anton Forsberg|G
#9 |Vitaly Abramov|RW
#10 |Paul Bittner|LW
#11 |Keegan Kolesar|RW
#12 |Daniel Zaar|RW
#13 |Dean Kukan|D
#14 |Markus Nutivaara|D
#15 |Vladislav Gavrikov|D
#16 |Elvis Merzlikins|G
#17 |Dillon Heatherington|D
#18 |Andrew Peeke|D
#19 |Veeti Vainio|D
#20 |Markus Hannikainen|LW

Not trying to ride the fence but bit are good posts and reflect reasonable windows of opportunity. The 2016 advantages are goaltending and defense (at least until Jiricek emerges). The current group has a definite forward advantage. I was optimistic then and am optimistic now with a caveat - can our goaltending problems be solved?

 

[CBJx614]

Oh? What's the definition of a star then?

A PPG player in this league is a star.

Players consistently putting up 90+ points are superstars

That 2016 team contained 0 stars or superstars.

 

[stevo61]

My main issue is that we have had plenty of years where our prospect pool was considered very strong or even the best. Have we ever had a prospect as highly ranked as Fantilli? Probably depends who you ask. However, people citing prospects that have yet to make the NHL need to think back and recall guys like Abramov, Bemstrom, and all the strong prospect classes we have had before with later round picks looking to have high upside.

Do I think it could be the best prospect pool we have had? Sure. As prospects (in a 3 year CBJ draft grouping), Milano/Werenski/Carlsson/Dubois looked really strong.

A player who can score over 90 points in a season, and is consistent in their GP/production year over year ——-> Gaudreau.

***

It’s scary to think how much of our future relies on Fantilli, Jiricek and Johnson (in that order) working out.

I dont look to the past when comparing the current or future. But that group was proven to be as good as we thought. There were busts but the team dismantled before all the prospects were up to speed. I dont really see how thats a negative on how we viewed the kids. There are a lot of NHLers on that list, more than half those guys even with Nuti retiring due to health issues.

Gaudreau+Laine are stars. Johnson+Fantilli have star upside. The defensive group has a very different feel but they are built more in the modern style vs the big defensive guys the staff looked for in the past beyond the 1st round

And every team relies on prospects developing to get them to the next level or maintain a high level. You obviously have a better chance of getting that level of player earlier in the draft so I dont get why its shocking we are relying on top 6 draft picks, thats kind of how sports work. Imagine how sad Bostons future would look right now if they never drafted Pasta. Thats just 1 player and could have changed their team dynamic in a major way

 

[traffic cone]

Laine could score 55 goals next season and I wouldn’t be surprised. He’s definitely a star in this league. And could (still) be a superstar in the future.

Anyone can feel free to disagree. Not something I will start arguing about.

 

[Cowumbus]

I disagree that Laine is a star. 1 All Star appearance (rookie year, on a different team), zero seasons finishing on the NHL 1st or 2nd teams. Zero individual awards won.

Also, PPG isn’t very uncommon anymore. I think there were close to around 40 PPG players this year. I’ll take Nylander, Fiala, DeBrincat over Laine and none of them are stars. Shit maybe even guys like Hyman who scored 83 points.

Unless you are arguing that star = 1st line player, and superstar = what I would consider a star…. Then sure Laine is a “star” but at that point so was Atkinson.

What makes Laine a star, but not Pavel Buchnevich? Go look at the last two years. Or is Buchnevich a star (I’d argue he’s the 3rd best F on the Blues)!? How many stars are there in the league…

 

[Marioesque]

A PPG player in this league is a star.

Players consistently putting up 90+ points are superstars

That 2016 team contained 0 stars or superstars.

Yeah I'm more with your definition and current team has 2 stars

 

[Marioesque]

I disagree that Laine is a star. 1 All Star appearance (rookie year, on a different team), zero seasons finishing on the NHL 1st or 2nd teams. Zero individual awards won.

Also, PPG isn’t very uncommon anymore. I think there were close to around 40 PPG players this year. I’ll take Nylander, Fiala, DeBrincat over Laine and none of them are stars. Shit maybe even guys like Hyman who scored 83 points.

Unless you are arguing that star = 1st line player, and superstar = what I would consider a star…. Then sure Laine is a “star” but at that point so was Atkinson.

What makes Laine a star, but not Pavel Buchnevich? Go look at the last two years. Or is Buchnevich a star (I’d argue he’s the 3rd best F on the Blues)!? How many stars are there in the league…

When Laine is healthy he's far better than anyone you mentioned. If you cherry pick a time frame and stat watch without context, you can make comparisons to players who have had healthier seasons. Laine was one of the fastest ever to 100 goals and he started at 18. He's a superstar, when he plays healthy.

I don't think lack of injuries as something that makes a "star". It's the output they can provide when they play. Laine has always been a very high offensive output player, and has had months of beating all of the competition in the league.

You just haven't seen him for long enough stretches in a solid team yet. Jackets have been in this retooling/injury ridden runt for 2 seasons. He's still been PPG basically.

I really hope for a healthy season for the group so they can show what they are. A lot of people don't seem to understand that a healthy Laine can compete with the top players in the league. It's easier for me since I've seen it happen several times in his career, so I know it's there.

I totally get if the argument is that you would take the others over Laine because of the injuries, that you believe it to continue that way. That would be fair. But as the level of player, Laine is in a different bracket. That's my point.

 

[Cowumbus]

When Laine is healthy he's far better than anyone you mentioned. If you cherry pick a time frame and stat watch without context,

Yep I haven’t watched anyone play.

You just haven't seen him for long enough stretches in a solid team yet. Jackets have been in this retooling/injury ridden runt for 2 seasons. He's still been PPG basically.
I totally get if the argument is that you would take the others over Laine because of the injuries, that you believe it to continue that way. That would be fair. But as the level of player, Laine is in a different bracket. That's my point.

Since 2018 (5 seasons worth of data):

Since 2016 (Laine’s rookie year):

 

[Marioesque]

Yep I haven’t watched anyone play.

Since 2018 (5 seasons worth of data):

Since 2016 (Laine’d rookie year):

What exactly should I take from these two pictures?

How can their games played be so close to each other? Looking at Debrincat or Nylanders stats on elite prospects, they've both had 4 or 5 full 82 game seasons.

How does Laine have 462 games played and Debrincat 450? What manipulation did you do here?

I see, DeBrincat has one season less.

Apples and oranges.

My argument was that when healthy, Laine is the better player than all of them. This has been evident when they have all played healthy. You're comparing totals and ignoring context

 

[Byrral]

This appears to be the best group of young roster players along with the best prospects this team has ever had. Yet this doesn't guarantee anything and this is far from a finished product especially because the goalie situation seems unsettled at best. I'm excited to see what happens between now, camp and final rosters when Backcock has been able to evaluate what he has and can implement a much needed system. I want to see stucture and improvement. You can see Babcock is chomping at the bit to get started.

 

[Cowumbus]

What exactly should I take from these two pictures?

You claimed that Laine is far and away better than anyone I mentioned. Can you explain how?

Over the last 5 years ranks for F:
DeBrincat
159 Goals (16th)
0.43 G/GP (22nd)
101 ES Goals (20th)
1.36 G/60 (32nd)
321 Points (30th)
2.75 P/60 (59th)
ATOI 19:03 (41st)
GP 368 (8th)
2024 Caphit 7.875 (44th)

Laine
118 Goals (45th)
0.38 G/60 (41st)
78 ES Goals (69th)
1.26 G/60 (50th)
245 Points (71st)
2.61 P/60 (75th)
ATOI 18:22 (62nd)
GP 307 (177th)
2024 Caphit 8.70 (25th)

Nylander
129 Goals (33rd)
0.38 G/GP (41st)
93 ES Goals (29th)
1.31 G/60 (41st)
295 Points (39th)
2.99 P/60 (34th)
ATOI 17:37 (101st)
GP 336 (105th)
2024 Caphit ~10? (8th)

There is a poll for the top 25 wingers in the NHL, I’ll be curious to see where these guys fall.

 

[Marioesque]

You claimed that Laine is far and away better than anyone I mentioned. Can you explain how?

Over the last 5 years ranks for F:
DeBrincat
159 Goals (16th)
0.43 G/GP (22nd)
101 ES Goals (20th)
1.36 G/60 (32nd)
321 Points (30th)
2.75 P/60 (59th)
ATOI 19:03 (41st)
GP 368 (8th)
2024 Caphit 7.875 (44th)

Laine
118 Goals (45th)
0.38 G/60 (41st)
78 ES Goals (69th)
1.26 G/60 (50th)
245 Points (71st)
2.61 P/60 (75th)
ATOI 18:22 (62nd)
GP 307 (177th)
2024 Caphit 8.70 (25th)

Nylander
129 Goals (33rd)
0.38 G/GP (41st)
93 ES Goals (29th)
1.31 G/60 (41st)
295 Points (39th)
2.99 P/60 (34th)
ATOI 17:37 (101st)
GP 336 (105th)
2024 Caphit ~10? (8th)

Already explained in what I originally stated. You're just totally ignoring the fact that the other players have had full seasons while Laine has had totally broken season where he's rarely played in full health. Few games
here and there. Injury recovery and returning from it usually isn't people's most productive hockey, takes time to get back to it. Laine's been doing that with PPG last two seasons, while the others have had full seasons healthy, no stops and starts between injuries. No slow returns to lineup.

My point was, when the circumstances are comparable, Laine is a better player than those guys. He's a different pedigree of prospect, he's a different pedigree of player. He was better at 18-19 than these guys are now, but he hasn't had a healthy career like they have. I don't know if you're missing that context on purpose? I don't get why.

Let's put it this way. 82 games same linemates and usage, Laine is far ahead of the mentioned guys. His ceiling is on a superstar level where as Nylanders ceiling is what he is right now. There have been stretches in Laine's career where he's clearly been on a different level than the compared players have been able to reach.

If you ignore all that context then I guess you can arrive at your conclusions.

And if you're making like a business decision and you conclude the injuries will always follow Laine and avoid the others, I can see how you would prefer them over Laine. That could be more reasonable (but a bit superstitious).

Just don't pretend that the potential is close. Laine was easily on his way to Calder until he got concussed. 4th youngest player in history of NHL to 100 goals and even those years had injuries

 

[Cowumbus]

Already explained in what I originally stated. You're just totally ignoring the fact that the other players have had full seasons while Laine has had totally broken season where he's rarely played in full health. Few games
here and there.

That’s the point of the /GP or /60 rates comparison.

Injury recovery and returning from it usually isn't people's most productive hockey, takes time to get back to it. Laine's been doing that with PPG last two seasons, while the others have had full seasons healthy, no stops and starts between injuries. No slow returns to lineup.

Nylander had Covid. Also missed half a season with contract issues.

My point was, when the circumstances are comparable, Laine is a better player than those guys.

Again, how?

He's a different pedigree of prospect, he's a different pedigree of player. He was better at 18-19 than these guys are now,

They have gotten better though, has he?

but he hasn't had a healthy career like they have. I don't know if you're missing that context on purpose? I don't get why.

Excuses. Keller broke his femur and came back this season with a 86 point season.

Let's put it this way. 82 games same linemates and usage, Laine is far ahead of the mentioned guys. His ceiling is on a superstar level where as Nylanders ceiling is what he is right now.

Nylanders ceiling is what he was this year? 40G 87 points? DeBrincat’s ceiling is lower despite two 40G seasons and being the same age as Laine? Didn’t Laine get moved off the top line here and Marchenko look better with JG?

There have been stretches in Laine's career where he's clearly been on a different level than the compared players have been able to reach.

Stretches don’t mean much. And I’d argue the other two have had great stretches as well… Roslovic has good stretches. Part of being a star player is consistently performing.

If you ignore all that context then I guess you can arrive at your conclusions.

Ok.

And if you're making like a business decision and you conclude the injuries will always follow Laine and avoid the others, I can see how you would prefer them over Laine. That could be more reasonable (but a bit superstitious).

The others have value outside of scoring goals.

Just don't pretend that the potential is close.

Okay

The only elite tool that Laine has is his shot, yet DeBrincat and him have THE SAME (14%) shooting percentage throughout their careers. DeBrincat has an elite shot as well.