Are the Jackets finally on the cusp of something great ?
- Thread starter ViD
- Start date
Jovavic
Gaslight Object Project
No
Edit: don't get me wrong, ViD, I love your enthusiasm for the team. But alot of things have to go right for the team to be great (even two years from now) and when was the last time that happened for this club? Maybe we're due for some luck but life doesn't work that way.
Edit: don't get me wrong, ViD, I love your enthusiasm for the team. But alot of things have to go right for the team to be great (even two years from now) and when was the last time that happened for this club? Maybe we're due for some luck but life doesn't work that way.
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In the next year? No, not even close. Longterm? Yes. This time its built more from within and dont have a bunch of contracts expiring and near expiring. Will take a lot of development, especially on the backend to get back to and surpass what we had. At one point we could role with Werenski-Jones Gavrikov-Savard Murray-Nutivaara, thats pretty insane. The forward depth should be a lot better though. Not 1 superstar and a support cast.
they're a lot closer than people realize. they're one decent center away from having a roster that, on paper, is right there with other playoff teams in the division (sans carolina).
let's say they swing a trade for hertl. this roster is set to do some damage in both the short and long term:
| forwards | defense |
| gaudreau - hertl - marchenko johnson - fantilli - laine jenner - sillinger* - texier voronkov - kuraly - danforth *or tex-jenner-chinakhov | werenski - severson provorov - boqvist* bean - gudbranson** *or jiricek **or blankenburg |
if they do that and manage an elvis-gibson swap on top of that, they're a potential top-3 team in the metro from the jump.
CBJWerenski8
Formerly CBJWennberg10 (RIP Kivi)
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Here is the 1st issue- I don’t think Sillinger beats out Texier, McKown, Voronkov, Kuraly, Jenner or Fantilli.
Next defense and forwards needs to gel
Third - injuries need to at a Minimum
Fourth - goaltending needs to be extremely better
Fifth - Special teams need to be in top 15
Last we need to get lucky
Byrral
Registered User
Same opinion (playoffs 23 and 24 contender 25). This is year 3 of the rebuild. They may be a bit behind my compete for the playoffs goal for this year but the Fantilli add brought the prospect pool up more towards the top of the league. I said a bit back that Jarmo deserved a chance to bring us to the other side of the shitstorm and hopefully here we are. At least it looks promising. It still doesn't mean he's a good GM or a winning GM. He hasn't won anything. We have a guideline. We will see after the next two years.
if he does (i.e. comes in and has a big camp, leaves no doubt) that's a very good thing.
if he doesn't (goes to cleveland as the 1C) they'll still have a very good third line.
not unique to the blue jackets.
yes, but also as you alluded to above there are a ton of guys who could make the roster. they'll be far better equipped to handle injuries via call-up this year. they're not going to be leaning on tim berni or keeping a guy performing the way sillinger did last year in the lineup due to injuries.
they have more (and better) options: mckown, voronkov, jiricek svozil, etc. all weren't options last year. technically jiricek was here but they obviously wanted the ELC to slide.
yes, and far from a guarantee, but they roster additions mean they'll be better at suppressing shots + will be far better at actually possessing the puck this year. doesn't mean goaltending will necessarily be good but it won't be as much of a liability simply because whoever the goalie is won't be under fire nearly as much.
Ice9
Registered User
"This may not be the beginning of the end but it may be the end of the beginning ".
Winston Churchill...
Winston Churchill...
JacketFanInFL
Brick by Brick
A lot has been screwed up. We can't just handwave away last year and solely blame injuries. We finally have a shred of competence back in the team's leadership. I still don't think we have an adequate support staff to lay a proper foundation.
A lot has to go perfectly right in order to be great:
This team needs to learn an entirely new system.
The youth need to make an unprecedented step up.
The defense must make life hell for opposing teams (I think this is where we progressed the most)
The injuries must decrease by several orders of magnitude.
Elvis has to become a mediocre, middle of the NHL goalie. This requires a massive step forward.
Our peers need to get worse (They are, for the most part)
We need to score a lot more goals.
Special Teams need to improve.
I would say we're on the cusp of mediocrity, which is a helluva lot better than last year.
A lot has to go perfectly right in order to be great:
This team needs to learn an entirely new system.
The youth need to make an unprecedented step up.
The defense must make life hell for opposing teams (I think this is where we progressed the most)
The injuries must decrease by several orders of magnitude.
Elvis has to become a mediocre, middle of the NHL goalie. This requires a massive step forward.
Our peers need to get worse (They are, for the most part)
We need to score a lot more goals.
Special Teams need to improve.
I would say we're on the cusp of mediocrity, which is a helluva lot better than last year.
A lot of things need to break right in terms of luck and development to be a playoff team in 23-24. Prospects are just that: prospects. They're still hypothetical. The misery of this past season aside, we are still on track with the plan: playoffs in 2024-25. Arguably, we're ahead of what we were thinking this time last summer because we never imagined we'd have been in the Bedard lottery mix, and now Fantilli is the best prospect we've had maybe ever. I go into this coming season with the expectation I had going into last season: probably around twentieth or so in the league, competitive til the last few weeks of the season but ultimately just not quite enough to make the playoffs.
For the east, there are three teams that are demonstrably worse than us (Philadelphia, Montreal, Detroit) and we're in a squishy middle with Washington, Pittsburgh, the Islanders, and Ottawa where I don't really expect any of the five of us to make the playoffs. I think the Atlantic probably ends up with both wild cards (some mix of Toronto, Florida, Tampa, Buffalo, plus either Boston or Ottawa if they get Good Korpi). There are so many bad teams in the West just like last season that the worst eastern team could arguably not even be bottom five in the league.
For the east, there are three teams that are demonstrably worse than us (Philadelphia, Montreal, Detroit) and we're in a squishy middle with Washington, Pittsburgh, the Islanders, and Ottawa where I don't really expect any of the five of us to make the playoffs. I think the Atlantic probably ends up with both wild cards (some mix of Toronto, Florida, Tampa, Buffalo, plus either Boston or Ottawa if they get Good Korpi). There are so many bad teams in the West just like last season that the worst eastern team could arguably not even be bottom five in the league.
koteka
Registered User
It appears this team is set to roll with Elvis and Tarasov in goal for this upcoming season and beyond, which says to me “something great” is pretty far away.
I think we are without question on the cusp of the most SUSTAINED success this franchise has ever seen.
Last season was the perfect time for this team to stink with the depth of blue chip centers available and we were finally rewarded with Fantilli who WANTED to come here. Contrast that to next year where I'm seeing only one blue chip center in the top 5 in the early rankings (granted things can change).
While I think they can be a bubble team this coming season (especially if they add a vet top 6 C) it's the following year when I think you'll see this team take off when these two cores collide to make significant contributions so-to-speak:
CORE 1: Gaudreau, Werenski, Laine, Jenner, Severson, Provorov
CORE 2: Fantilli (year 2), Johnson (year 3), Marchenko (year 3), Jiricek (year 3)
And that's not counting the likely contributions from players like Voronkov, Chinakhov, and perhaps Sillinger, Svozil and Ceulemans.
And there's yet another wave after that group with Mateychuk, Dumais, Brindley, Del Bel Belluz, Whitelaw, and company.
The players need to be put in the best position to develop, stay healthy, and they need to shore up that goaltending. Big picture though these are exciting times.
Last season was the perfect time for this team to stink with the depth of blue chip centers available and we were finally rewarded with Fantilli who WANTED to come here. Contrast that to next year where I'm seeing only one blue chip center in the top 5 in the early rankings (granted things can change).
While I think they can be a bubble team this coming season (especially if they add a vet top 6 C) it's the following year when I think you'll see this team take off when these two cores collide to make significant contributions so-to-speak:
CORE 1: Gaudreau, Werenski, Laine, Jenner, Severson, Provorov
CORE 2: Fantilli (year 2), Johnson (year 3), Marchenko (year 3), Jiricek (year 3)
And that's not counting the likely contributions from players like Voronkov, Chinakhov, and perhaps Sillinger, Svozil and Ceulemans.
And there's yet another wave after that group with Mateychuk, Dumais, Brindley, Del Bel Belluz, Whitelaw, and company.
The players need to be put in the best position to develop, stay healthy, and they need to shore up that goaltending. Big picture though these are exciting times.
I do think there’s a possibility of them addressing the goalie question by the beginning of the season. I guess that will depend on how they see Elvis recovering from the last year and whether he’s ready for a true reload under a new goalie coach
I think we could all afford to pump the breaks a little, BUT, it does seem like this team is set up with the best rebuild pieces we’ve ever had.
I think Mr./Mrs. Pick above puts it in a clear framework. It’s as good of a veteran core as we’ve ever had, accompanied by as good of a prospect pool as we’ve ever had.
There were times that we felt like we had a real good prospect group (2000-2011), and other times that we felt like we had a very good veteran group (2014-2019) but never had quite both at the level that we have in the pipeline right now. Something happened in between, but I seem to have blacked it out.
Going forward Jarmo’s job will be about addressing some key position groups and balancing out those core groups and maximizing values by making moves at key times to complement these players. And the young group HAS to develop.
I think Mr./Mrs. Pick above puts it in a clear framework. It’s as good of a veteran core as we’ve ever had, accompanied by as good of a prospect pool as we’ve ever had.
There were times that we felt like we had a real good prospect group (2000-2011), and other times that we felt like we had a very good veteran group (2014-2019) but never had quite both at the level that we have in the pipeline right now. Something happened in between, but I seem to have blacked it out.
Going forward Jarmo’s job will be about addressing some key position groups and balancing out those core groups and maximizing values by making moves at key times to complement these players. And the young group HAS to develop.
A lot obviously hinges on Jiricek and Fantilli's development. If they both hit and grow into their roles rather quickly, this team could be a force that is better than the 2018-19 squad.
Like every other year we look at the talent we have (either on the roster or in pipeline) and dream.
Problem is what we had last year was bad. Not just last season bad but even from past CBJ teams bad.
Let's be honest we have no idea if Babcock has changed. We have no idea how the young player will react to him. We have no idea if our dmen will actually play defense (we added new faces but not exactly Norris trophy caliber guys). We have no idea if our goaltender can stop even over 90% of shots. We have no idea who our top line C is (likely Jenner to start).
This time last year we were all pretty certain by the end of the year that Johnson and Sillinger would be our top 2 centers is a great example.
Realistically it's going to take us a quarter of a season for the team to figure out how to play defense.
Then we need to see how things shake out - keep in mind there was guys who didn't like the way Hitchcock and Torts coached, so I fully expect to have a guy or two who doesn't perform, but I will say there should be (by end of they year) a team that plays better as a team.
That is my biggest fear usually you make a dramatic coaching change and you know moves are coming. We changed a lot of names and faces so we have to hope those guys we acquired (and those we have) want to be playing in this system.
Problem is what we had last year was bad. Not just last season bad but even from past CBJ teams bad.
Let's be honest we have no idea if Babcock has changed. We have no idea how the young player will react to him. We have no idea if our dmen will actually play defense (we added new faces but not exactly Norris trophy caliber guys). We have no idea if our goaltender can stop even over 90% of shots. We have no idea who our top line C is (likely Jenner to start).
This time last year we were all pretty certain by the end of the year that Johnson and Sillinger would be our top 2 centers is a great example.
Realistically it's going to take us a quarter of a season for the team to figure out how to play defense.
Then we need to see how things shake out - keep in mind there was guys who didn't like the way Hitchcock and Torts coached, so I fully expect to have a guy or two who doesn't perform, but I will say there should be (by end of they year) a team that plays better as a team.
That is my biggest fear usually you make a dramatic coaching change and you know moves are coming. We changed a lot of names and faces so we have to hope those guys we acquired (and those we have) want to be playing in this system.
BB88
Registered User
- Jan 19, 2015
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As this is rebuild potential wise the ceiling of the team looks higher than ever.
Top prospects
Fantilli
Jiricek
Johnson
You can put up that against anyones in the league& they’ve never had that kind of a talent pool before
Then add Werenski, Gaudreau, Laine, Provorov, Severson, Mateychuk, Svozil, Jenner, Marchenko, Chinakhov, Dumais so on and how could you not see the potential?
Only Gaudreau& Severson are the only key players around 30y, the rest of them are 26 or under.
The next step and something they need to figure out within the next 12 months is the goaltending, that’s really the main concern/limiting factor moving forward
When have they had this talent before?
There’s only one answer and it’s never
Top prospects
Fantilli
Jiricek
Johnson
You can put up that against anyones in the league& they’ve never had that kind of a talent pool before
Then add Werenski, Gaudreau, Laine, Provorov, Severson, Mateychuk, Svozil, Jenner, Marchenko, Chinakhov, Dumais so on and how could you not see the potential?
Only Gaudreau& Severson are the only key players around 30y, the rest of them are 26 or under.
The next step and something they need to figure out within the next 12 months is the goaltending, that’s really the main concern/limiting factor moving forward
When have they had this talent before?
There’s only one answer and it’s never
Johansen2Foligno
CBJ Realest
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MoeBartoli
Checkers-to-Jackets
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Good post and question. The 2018-19 season’s end team would seem the benchmark. Up front this team should be better than that team in two years as I assume Fantilli will be better than PLD and we will have a 2C better than Duchene. Who that is will unfold.
Defensively it will be tough to exceed that group but we can come close if Jiricek is as we hope. I have confidence one of the recent draft picks will be a top 4 level player.
The position that will fall short is goalie. To co-opt the cliche, there’s no Bobrovsky walking thru that door. But if we can get a reliable netminder, this will be a damn good team in two years.
Cyclones Rock
Registered User
- Jun 12, 2008
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So many variables. For great to happen-which I'll define as a Stanley Cup win-these are things that I think will need to occur:
1) Fantilli must be as good as his billings
2) Gaudreau and Laine will have to-at a bare minimum-maintain their scoring rates
3) Werenski will have to play at a very high level at both ends of the ice. Pronorov will have to be very solid
3) Jiricek and Johnson will have to become players on the caliber of roughly Cale Makar (perhaps not quite this good but in the neighborhood) and Brayden Point
4) Severson will have to be worthy of an 8 year deal and be a solid second pairing guy along with Boqvist or Pronorov.
5) At least one other forward will have to become a solid 60 point producer.
6) Goaltending will have to be fixed
7) Players like Roslovic, Bemstrom, Bayreuther and Cole Sillinger (barring remarkable improvement) can't be part of a Cup-contending roster.
8) The bottom six/3rd pairing dmen can't have any glaring weak spots
1) Fantilli must be as good as his billings
2) Gaudreau and Laine will have to-at a bare minimum-maintain their scoring rates
3) Werenski will have to play at a very high level at both ends of the ice. Pronorov will have to be very solid
3) Jiricek and Johnson will have to become players on the caliber of roughly Cale Makar (perhaps not quite this good but in the neighborhood) and Brayden Point
4) Severson will have to be worthy of an 8 year deal and be a solid second pairing guy along with Boqvist or Pronorov.
5) At least one other forward will have to become a solid 60 point producer.
6) Goaltending will have to be fixed
7) Players like Roslovic, Bemstrom, Bayreuther and Cole Sillinger (barring remarkable improvement) can't be part of a Cup-contending roster.
8) The bottom six/3rd pairing dmen can't have any glaring weak spots
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Next year or two I think is going to get us partway there. Our D is just okay until guys like Jiricek break through, that will take a couple years. Fantilli will score goals right away but I'm not sure how long it will take for him to learn to drive play, which is what we need the most.
Beyond that, best in CBJ history, sure. But the East has some future juggernauts like Buffalo and New Jersey. We'll need some better playoff type performers to get past them. And of course, find a hot goalie.
A team that immaculate would be like 120 points. It's neither realistic or necessary to be one of the top teams in the division.
I think the veterans in the mid Torts era with prime Panarin AND all the skilled grit like Foligno and Dubinsky (and like five guys like them) was a better group of veterans. We barely have any veterans on our current team! The lineup is mostly kids who haven't established themselves yet.
Beyond that, best in CBJ history, sure. But the East has some future juggernauts like Buffalo and New Jersey. We'll need some better playoff type performers to get past them. And of course, find a hot goalie.
A team that immaculate would be like 120 points. It's neither realistic or necessary to be one of the top teams in the division.
I think the veterans in the mid Torts era with prime Panarin AND all the skilled grit like Foligno and Dubinsky (and like five guys like them) was a better group of veterans. We barely have any veterans on our current team! The lineup is mostly kids who haven't established themselves yet.
koteka
Registered User
I was at a Chiller the other day. I was talking to a guy I hadn’t seen for awhile. His son is a pretty good hockey player. The guy doesn’t follow prospects, the draft, etc, but is a hockey fan. His attitude was that he’ll believe the Jackets will win games when he actually sees it. He was not a fan of hiring Babcock.
Cyclones Rock
Registered User
- Jun 12, 2008
- 10,591
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120 points? LOL. It was a theoretical description. I'll hold to it. However.....
None of that is likely to happen as Werenki has his issues and has peaked. Laine and Gaudreau have as well.
Goaltending is a joke and as it stands the CBJ are a bottom third team.
Most likely scenario is that this roster is a borderline playoff team at its peak. Which will probably give Jarmo and JD another decade to figure it all out
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