Are the Jackets finally on the cusp of something great ?

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

To me a star player is someone that is normally the first to second best player (sometimes third for a team like EDM) if they were added to any team in the league.

IMO the only person like that on Cbus is Gaudreau.

Best player or best forward in this case? I think both Laine and Nylander stick well in a 2nd best forward slot in many teams. If you count in Dmen and Goalies as well, then by your defintion, I don't think theyre stars. Most teams will have at 2 better players than a good PPG wingers. Like Canucks have Petersson and Hughes, so in that case Laine and Nylander would be 2nd best forwards but 3rd best players.

Btw, who do you think is EDMs 3rd star? Because RNH is a 60-70 point player in any other team

 

[stevo61]

That’s the thing though, I think DeBrincat would do pretty much the exact same as Laine (we have some data to work with going back to McDavid/Cat in Erie).

I think DeBrincat/Laine/Nylander are all great players, even first liners, but they are not close to being at the Marner/Gaudreau/Kaprizov level. I don’t think I consider Marchand to be a star player, but if he came to Columbus I assume he would be the #2 ranked player no?

You somewhat had me until the Marchand comment. Just this year? Sure. For the 5 or 6 years before that? 1000% a star

 

[Cowumbus]

Best player or best forward in this case? I think both Laine and Nylander stick well in a 2nd best forward slot in many teams. If you count in Dmen and Goalies as well, then by your defintion, I don't think theyre stars. Most teams will have at 2 better players than a good PPG wingers.

In general, I would say forwards.

Btw, who do you think is EDMs 3rd star? Because RNH is a 60-70 point player in any other team

Nobody. I was saying if Gaudreau went there he would rank 3rd but he is easily a star.

You somewhat had me until the Marchand comment. Just this year? Sure. For the 5 or 6 years before that? 1000% a star

Just this year. Pretty hard to average around 90 points and not be a star (which is what I said a few pages back regarding my approximate criteria for being a star F).

 

[Marioesque]

Show me the model you built please. I am showing some data that is available.

You are mad because you have no data to show that Laine is better, so now you’re throwing a hissy fit and trying to attack me rather than the argument. Drink the Koolaid.

I am not mad that you see a player differently, it's not a big deal if you don't want to call him a star or if you genuinely think he's a lower level player than Nylander or Debrincat. You're entitled to your opinions. You just won't convince me that the weird stat gymnastics you proposed are painting an accurate picture. I can see the deficiency of the analysis, rejection of important context to arrive at a preconceived notion.

I've come to my conclusions through more thorough examination of the evidence, so I obviously trust it better. That's why throwing random stats from random times won't convince me otherwise. I can see how much you omit, it's not sound work to me.

 

[BB88]

I don’t have a dog in this fight but…

2016 on the roster
#1D in Seth Jones
3 50+ point wingers in Saad, Foligno, Atkinson
A young Boone Jenner
A Vezina caliber goalie in Bobrovsky
21yo #2C in Wennberg
#3D David Savard
#2/3C in Dubinsky
#3/4D Jack Johnson
21yo Ryan Murray coming off a great season


Prospects:
2016
Rank | Player | Position
#1 |Zach Werenski|D
#2 |Pierre-Luc Dubois|LW
#3 |Oliver Bjorkstrand|RW
#4 |Joonas Korpisalo|G
#5 |Sonny Milano|LW
#6 |Josh Anderson|RW
#7 |Gabriel Carlsson|D
#8 |Anton Forsberg|G
#9 |Vitaly Abramov|RW
#10 |Paul Bittner|LW
#11 |Keegan Kolesar|RW
#12 |Daniel Zaar|RW
#13 |Dean Kukan|D
#14 |Markus Nutivaara|D
#15 |Vladislav Gavrikov|D
#16 |Elvis Merzlikins|G
#17 |Dillon Heatherington|D
#18 |Andrew Peeke|D
#19 |Veeti Vainio|D
#20 |Markus Hannikainen|LW

& you don’t think if they would have been able to keep that roster together they wouldn’t have had potential?
The main problem was not having core players locked up, now they do. Also your list has nobody who would touch Gaudreau, even Laine is better offensively than anyone on the list

Also that roster lacked Fantilli caliber C prospect and the roster 1C what Fantilli could become.
Sorry to say but that’s a massive diffence.

Whether you have a franchise 1C or a low end 1C/2C is what separates the elite teams from the good teams.
Nobody is never afraid of Minnesota because they’ve lacked that strenght on the middle, no matter how good their defensive group has been or how elite Kaprizov is.

PLD was never ever even close to Fantilli as a prospect and has never been a true 1C at the NHL level.

You change PLD to Eichel tier prospect and that’s a ….ng team right there

The young talent pool is just even better than back then now thanks to Fantilli, Jiricek, Johnson etc

Edit.

So you listed a team that lacked Gaudreau/Fantilli/Laine caliber talents.

& still this isn’t the most promising set up they’ve ever had?

More high end talent than ever
True franchise 1C prospect
Core players locked up

 

[VT]

Have you?

DeBrincat I watched a ton, though more while he was on the Hawks, due to my roommate being a Blackhawks fan. But I do try to follow the Senators due to Josh Norris (Michigan) and Pinto.

Nylander I watched a lot just due to how much the Leafs are on TV. Of course I have not watched every game. However hinting that I don’t watch these guys is infuriating, because I’d wager during an NHL game week I watch a minimum of 20 games.

And compared all? For example play under forchecking, pressure. Play without the puck, if he can lead his line with worse players and AHL defense etc, etc. Even hockey specialists have different vision about the same players. I mean former NHL players.

 

[Cowumbus]

Star players:
CBJ: Gaudreau
WSH: Ovechkin
VAN: Petterson
OTT: Stutzle
BUF: Thompson
PIT: Crosby (IMO Malkin no longer is)
FLA: Tkachuk, Barkov
TB: Kucherov, Point
MIN: Kaprizov
LAK: IDK about this one…
NYR: Panarin
DAL: Robertson
COL: MacKinnon, Rantanen
EDM: McDavid, Draisaitl
VGK: Eichel
TOR: Matthews, Marner
NJD: Hughes
CAR: Aho
BOS: Pastrnak

 

[BB88]

My main issue is that we have had plenty of years where our prospect pool was considered very strong or even the best. Have we ever had a prospect as highly ranked as Fantilli? Probably depends who you ask. However, people citing prospects that have yet to make the NHL need to think back and recall guys like Abramov, Bemstrom, and all the strong prospect classes we have had before with later round picks looking to have high upside.

Do I think it could be the best prospect pool we have had? Sure. As prospects (in a 3 year CBJ draft grouping), Milano/Werenski/Carlsson/Dubois looked really strong.

A player who can score over 90 points in a season, and is consistent in their GP/production year over year ——-> Gaudreau.

***

It’s scary to think how much of our future relies on Fantilli, Jiricek and Johnson (in that order) working out.

There’s a massive difference between the past top prospects and todays.

Jiricek has played pro hockey for multiple years, including 1 season in the AHL.
That gives you a better read on the prospect than a prospect looking good in the OHL/Q/WHL whatever junior league you want to use.

& it’s a no brainer they’ve never had Fantilli level prospect. He put up Eichel caliber numbers. We have pretty damm good recent data on other top ncaa prospects and how their game has translated into the NHL.


I’m so done with comparing Fantilli to inferior prospects as why one should be carefull, how they’ve been there in the past as well.
No they haven’t, that’s the point. They’ve never had Fantilli caliber prospect with his physical tools& nhl build strenghts. Never, ever.

He’s one of the most physically gifted prospects, 6’2, 200lbs NHL frame, elite skating, elite level goal scorer, again didn’t dominate a weaker junior league just with his strenght but played against tougher competition and dominated

If someone says they’ve had Fantilli level prospect they are lying

 

[stevo61]

Star players:
CBJ: Gaudreau
WSH: Ovechkin
VAN: Petterson
OTT: Stutzle
BUF: Thompson
PIT: Crosby (IMO Malkin no longer is)
FLA: Tkachuk, Barkov
TB: Kucherov, Point
MIN: Kaprizov
LAK: IDK about this one…
NYR: Panarin
DAL: Robertson
COL: MacKinnon, Rantanen
EDM: McDavid, Draisaitl
VGK: Eichel
TOR: Matthews, Marner
NJD: Hughes
CAR: Aho
BOS: Pastrnak

How exclusive is superstar to you or do you just have players and stars

 

[VT]

Marner, Matthews, Gaudreau, Robertson, Panarin are weak in the PO.
Thompson had one star season. Is he a star? Štúdie didn't show he is better than Nylander, if about players whom love.

 

[BB88]

Star players:
CBJ: Gaudreau
WSH: Ovechkin
VAN: Petterson
OTT: Stutzle
BUF: Thompson
PIT: Crosby (IMO Malkin no longer is)
FLA: Tkachuk, Barkov
TB: Kucherov, Point
MIN: Kaprizov
LAK: IDK about this one…
NYR: Panarin
DAL: Robertson
COL: MacKinnon, Rantanen
EDM: McDavid, Draisaitl
VGK: Eichel
TOR: Matthews, Marner
NJD: Hughes
CAR: Aho
BOS: Pastrnak

Those are superstars you are listing

 

[Cowumbus]

@BB88 Nash was a great prospect at the time. I believe he was considered franchise level talent.

That was my point in saying, it probably depends on who you ask. I like Fantilli more, for what it is worth.

Those are superstars you are listing

How exclusive is superstar to you or do you just have players and stars

Top 5-10 (depending on year) in the entire league. For me in 2023, the forward super star list is probably McDavid, Draisaitl, Pasta, MacKinnon, Kucherov.

Guys like Keller/Laine/Nylander I consider 1st line players, not stars. Even then though, I’d say there is some variation in a 1st line player. Example, 2018/19 Atkinson would be considered a 1st liner, but he is not as valuable as Laine/Nylander/DeBrincat. Atkinson would be a 1st liner on fewer teams than Laine, obviously.

 

[TaketheCannoli]

Okay so you are just now listing players.

If we talk about Dmen is there a difference if we talk about Werenski caliber Dmen and Gubranson type of Dmen or is it just the same, they are players?

I’ll ask once again.
Give me a year when they had

Gaudreau (6 years left on his contract) a superstar
Werenski( 5 years left on his contract) 1D
Laine (3 years)
Severson (8 years)
Provorov
Jenner (3 years)
Proven players

+
Fantilli, Eichel caliber prospect (have never had)
Jiricek, franchise Dprospect
Johnson, potential 1C/1W
Mateychuk
Svozil
Marchenko
Dumais
Sillinger
Voronkov
Chinakhov
etc
Prospect pool.

I don’t want some random names, give me a year when they’ve had a set up like this before, proven superstar players, core players locked up longterm and top 2/3 prospect pool in the entire league.
The answer again is never, they’ve never been in similar situation.

You can’t simply answer to Fantilli by mentioning an inferior prospect/player

Actually, no I'm not just listing players. You are welcome to go look at the 2005-6 and 2006-7 rosters. The 2016 roster. I don't have the listing of the prospect pools from those years, but remember this team pretty much always had a top 5-10 pick every single year from 2000 until 2013. Those prospect pools were considered very strong year after year.

I'm glad you truly believe Fantilli is an Eichel calibre prospect and you believe the rest of the group you listed is a fantastic future team that will do something special. I hope you are right. I do get where you are coming from but you are also asking me to assume all these guys develop into their best case AND the team, front office and coaching staff function at a high level. Maybe the pool and roster is as strong was you believe. As I said, I hope you are right. What guarantee is there that it isn't a repeat of Edmonton 2008 through 2016?

Perhaps you don't realize when drafted many of the players from the past were expected to be stars, some franchise players and one or two were expected to be the messiah! Let's hope this time it's all going to happen. Today, this prospect pool represents potential. Maybe these guys will develop into what many of us hope.

I plan to wait and see.

 

[BB88]

@BB88 Nash was a great prospect at the time. I believe he was considered franchise level.

That was my point in saying, it probably depends on who you ask. I like Fantilli more, for what it is worth.


Nah to me superstars are top 5-10 NHL players.


5-10 in the entire league.

Nash wasn’t at Fantilli level, no one would have him there.
Nash was also a winger, not a C.

In his draft year Nash had 72 points in 54 games in the OHL.
Some other comps from the OHL around that time:
Spezza 116 points in 55 games
Weiss 87 points in 62 games
Torres 91 points in 67 games
Staal 98 points in 66 games.

Then compare Fantillis stats to Eichel, Tkachuk, Beniers, Johnson etc and see how he compares, outside of Eichel absolutely destroyes the others.

I can list you easily over 10 superstars just for forwards without even thinking 2 seconds:
McDavid, Matthews, Mackinnon, Barkov, Drai, Bergeron, Crosby, Kucherov, Tkachuk, Rantanen, Robertson, Pasta, etc. They are all superstars

Actually, no I'm not just listing players. You are welcome to go look at the 2005-6 and 2006-7 rosters. The 2016 roster. I don't have the listing of the prospect pools from those years, but remember this team pretty much always had a top 5-10 pick every single year from 2000 until 2013. Those prospect pools were considered very strong year after year.

I'm glad you truly believe Fantilli is an Eichel calibre prospect and you believe the rest of the group you listed is a fantastic future team that will do something special. I hope you are right. I do get where you are coming from but you are also asking me to assume all these guys develop into their best case AND the team, front office and coaching staff function at a high level. Maybe the pool and roster is as strong was you believe. As I said, I hope you are right. What guarantee is there that it isn't a repeat of Edmonton 2008 through 2016?

Perhaps you don't realize when drafted many of the players from the past were expected to be stars, some franchise players and one or two were expected to be the messiah! Let's hope this time it's all going to happen. Today, this prospect pool represents potential. Maybe these guys will develop into what many of us hope.

I plan to wait and see.

Well you are.

& even that 2016 roster set up lacked Fantilli/Gaudreau/Laine caliber players offensively so the point really stands.
You know that’s a pretty big difference

This is the best set up they’ve ever had, even backed up by your posts

Edit
& you seriously don’t see a difference to Edmontons rebuild, like honestly?

& for the millionth time, it’s a bit different to have expectations for a true franchise prospect than it is for a great prospect

 

[Cowumbus]

Nash wasn’t at Fantilli level, no one would have him there.
Nash was also a winger, not a C.

In his draft year Nash had 72 points in 54 games in the OHL.
Some other comps from the OHL around that time:
Spezza 116 points in 55 games
Weiss 87 points in 62 games
Torres 91 points in 67 games
Staal 98 points in 66 games.

He played on a terrible London team. Still managed 19P in 12GP in the playoffs too (more than the guys listed above).
"I've never seen a player step in at such a young age and be able to dominate a game the way he has," said Stan Butler, coach of the OHL's Brampton Battalion and the national junior team Nash played on.

I was just a kid back then, but I’ll take you word for it.

Then compare Fantillis stats to Eichel, Tkachuk, Beniers, Johnson etc and see how he compares, outside of Eichel absolutely destroyes the others.

Kyle Connor age 18 at Michigan is pretty good comp: Kyle Connor Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com
I can’t seem to find a good website for NCAA scoring of freshmen.

 

[stevo61]

He played on a terrible London team. Still managed 19P in 12GP in the playoffs too (more than the guys listed above).
"I've never seen a player step in at such a young age and be able to dominate a game the way he has," said Stan Butler, coach of the OHL's Brampton Battalion and the national junior team Nash played on.

I was just a kid back then, but I’ll take you word for it.

Kyle Connor age 18 at Michigan is pretty good comp: Kyle Connor Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com
I can’t seem to find a good website for NCAA scoring of freshmen.

I know hes old for his year like Eichel but thats still a hockey year older. Regardless though if Fantilli drops 45 goals and 90+ points like Connor plus the 2 way game from the center position I wont be sad

 

[Cowumbus]

I know hes old for his year like Eichel but thats still a hockey year older. Regardless though if Fantilli drops 45 goals and 90+ points like Connor plus the 2 way game from the center position I wont be sad

I’d be 100p okay with that tbh.

 

[majormajor]

Just my opinion on where Fantilli fits historically (compared to draft year players) - he'd be ahead of Rick Nash, who I think would go around 4th or 5th in this draft. But don't put too much weight on Nash's OHL point totals, everyone knew he was the power forward type to translate well to the NHL.

Fantilli is also miles ahead of Kyle Connor, who fell in the draft because he wasn't seen as a pro style player. Connor is still a vacant defensive player and not as valuable as his points suggest. Eichel is definitely the closer comparison for Fantilli, though I'd have Fantilli behind on that one.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

Star players:
CBJ: Gaudreau
WSH: Ovechkin
VAN: Petterson
OTT: Stutzle
BUF: Thompson
PIT: Crosby (IMO Malkin no longer is)
FLA: Tkachuk, Barkov
TB: Kucherov, Point
MIN: Kaprizov
LAK: IDK about this one…
NYR: Panarin
DAL: Robertson
COL: MacKinnon, Rantanen
EDM: McDavid, Draisaitl
VGK: Eichel
TOR: Matthews, Marner
NJD: Hughes
CAR: Aho
BOS: Pastrnak

Generally the grading I've seen used here has been something like this:

Generational - McDavid, Crosby...
Franchise - Drai, Matthews...
Superstar - Marner, Pastrnak...
Star - Laine, Nylander...
1st line - Terry, Forsberg...
Top 6 - Macelli, Batherson...

(Completely off the top of my head, so don't focus too much on the names)

But since there's no rules or official tier list, it's a not very surprising we there's often misundestanding and arguments about this

 

[Cowumbus]

Generally the grading I've seen used here has been something like this:

Generational - McDavid, Crosby...
Franchise - Drai, Matthews...
Superstar - Marner, Pastrnak...
Star - Laine, Nylander...
1st line - Terry, Forsberg...
Top 6 - Macelli, Batherson...

(Completely off the top of my head, so don't focus too much on the names)

But since there's no rules or official tier list, it's a not very surprising we there's often misundestanding and arguments about this

That’s fair. I just find it odd to have guys listed as Stars, when they don’t get voted to play in all-star games. Not that all star games matter, but that’s 36 ish players. Feels weird to say there are potentially 30+ stars in the NHL, that aren’t at the superstar/franchise/gen level.

Just my opinion on where Fantilli fits historically (compared to draft year players) - he'd be ahead of Rick Nash, who I think would go around 4th or 5th in this draft. But don't put too much weight on Nash's OHL point totals, everyone knew he was the power forward type to translate well to the NHL.

Was Nash seen as franchise/star level?

 

[majormajor]

Was Nash seen as franchise/star level?

Lol I'm not touching those semantic debates with a twenty foot pole. Waste of time.

Much easier to use the baseline of specific players.

 

[Cowumbus]

Lol I'm not touching those semantic debates with a twenty foot pole. Waste of time.

Much easier to use the baseline of specific players.

I’m saying if he was in this draft.

Bedard is seen as generational, Fantilli/Carlsson as franchise, Will Smith probably all star? Would he have been grouped with Fantilli or with Smith? Your last post sounds like more towards Smith.

 

[majormajor]

I’m saying if he was in this draft.

Bedard is seen as generational, Fantilli/Carlsson as franchise, Will Smith probably all star? Would he have been grouped with Fantilli or with Smith? Your last post sounds like more towards Smith.

I think for most clubs Nash would solidly be after the big 3 centers, but you'd have some like the Jackets who have a big 4 centers including Smith. But generally I think draft year Nash goes somewhere around Smith. #4 or #5.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

That’s fair. I just find it odd to have guys listed as Stars, when they don’t get voted to play in all-star games. Not that all star games matter, but that’s 36 ish players. Feels weird to say there are potentially 30+ stars in the NHL, that aren’t at the superstar/franchise/gen level.

There's quite a lot of rotation in the all-star players every year, so I guess the definition for a star could be someone who has the track record and ability to be in that group if they have a good year.

 

[ThirdPeriodTurtle]

I've learned not to get too excited when Laine gets a chance to shoot. He's more likely these days to overpass or dust it off.

I like his overall game a lot more last year, though he is still super inconsistent period to period.

Fair enough, I can see that. There were times where it felt like he needed way too much space to get those shots off, whether it was a one-timer or a wrister (wristers especially he just needed too much time and space and he got stripped before that). Maybe it's a bit of homerism on my part to still have that expectation, more so on the PP especially...