Are the Jackets finally on the cusp of something great ?

[Marioesque]

That’s the point of the /GP or /60 rates comparison.

Nylander had Covid. Also missed half a season with contract issues.

Again, how?

They have gotten better though, has he?

Excuses. Keller broke his femur and came back this season with a 86 point season.

Nylanders ceiling is what he was this year? 40G 87 points? DeBrincat’s ceiling is lower despite two 40G seasons and being the same age as Laine?

Stretches don’t mean much. And I’d argue the other two have had great stretches as well… Roslovic has good stretches. Part of being a star player is consistently performing.

Ok.

The others have value outside of scoring goals.

Okay

You don't seem to understand that an 82 game season is an easier time to produce
points in, than a 82 games stretch over 2 seasons where you return from injury 5-6 times and play through the recovery phase each time. It's generally expected that it takes players some games to get back to full game readiness after missing time.

Do you not understand the difference? 82 games in a row, 82 games in bits and pieces ?

 

[Cowumbus]

You don't seem to understand that an 82 game season is an easier time to produce
points in,

I’m not sure I buy that. When talking about scoring rates, how often do we see guys get off to a hot start then cool off later in the year (due to fatigue, unsustainable percentages, scouting by other teams, other players moving on the roster)? Are you suggesting 82 points in 82GP is the same value as 30 points in 30GP? Lupol was one of the most injury prone players of all time, and his best statistical season came in a year where he didn’t play 82 games..

than a 82 games stretch over 2 seasons where you return from injury 5-6 times and play through the recovery phase each time. It's generally expected that it takes players some games to get back to full game readiness after missing time.

Jenner has missed time and been in/out yet I think his play has stayed the same. Same with Laine.

Do you not understand the difference? 82 games in a row, 82 games in bits and pieces ?

Yes.
I’m not talking about 82 games. I’m talking about 5 seasons worth of data…

 

[VT]

Yep I haven’t watched anyone play.

Since 2018 (5 seasons worth of data):

Since 2016 (Laine’s rookie year):

To equalise player stats, you need the same conditions in everyone. If not, you need to look at other things, like partners, team play as a whole, evaluate how players play in some moments, if their stats are based on the majority, whether a player can carry the line, quality of chances, shots, assists, etc. Do you have those stats?

 

[ThirdPeriodTurtle]

Must everything always turn into a Laine argument... But if it must, I'd like to offer an alternative "star" definition: Something that gets fans excited on a regular basis, not just points. Something that the fans "expect" or "hope" to happen in a game, and something that does indeed happen fairly often by an individual player. Laine has that shot, and it's especially great when he gets that one-timer off on a good pass. It's exciting, it gets the crowd going. On the PP, we hope he gets a great setup and unleashes that cannon. He's a star in my books. Same for Gaudreau, the way he can speed up and take over a shift. Might even say Johnny has been on a superstar level (that excitement + points to match, dunno). Johnny must re-earn that level though after last year. Hopefully we see more of both next season, and hopefully Johnson and maybe Fantilli get to that excitement level as well.

Regardless, we should have a couple of good or at least exciting years ahead, we haven't geared up for a one-off. If we're still far from a playoff spot this year then I don't know what to do but if we're in the mix, then we have a good chance of being at least some kind of contenders for a few years. Which is exciting! Can't wait for the season to start.

 

[Cowumbus]

To equalise player stats, you need the same conditions in everyone. If not, you need to look at other things, like partners, team play as a whole, evaluate how players play in some moments, if their stats are based on the majority, whether a player can carry the line, quality of chances, shots, assists, etc. Do you have those stats?

 

[Marioesque]

I’m not sure I buy that. When talking about scoring rates, how often do we see guys get off to a hot start then cool off later in the year (due to fatigue, unsustainable percentages, scouting by other teams, other players moving on the roster)? Are you suggesting 82 points in 82GP is the same value as 30 points in 30GP? Lupol was one of the most injury prone players of all time, and his best statistical season came in a year where he didn’t play 82 games..

Jenner has missed time and been in/out yet I think his play has stayed the same. Same with Laine.

Yes.
I’m not talking about 82 games. I’m talking about 5 seasons worth of data…

I analyze data for work, and I wouldn't treat data as you do here. It's possible to make a case using data when ignoring context but it's not going to bring accurate results. "Garbage in, garbage out"

Garbage in, garbage out - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Cowumbus]

I analyze data for work,

I do too…

and I wouldn't treat data as you do here. It's possible to make a case using data when ignoring context but it's not going to bring accurate results. "Garbage in, garbage out"

Garbage in, garbage out - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

You claimed that Laine is far and away better than anyone I mentioned. Can you explain how?

Over the last 5 years ranks for F:
DeBrincat
159 Goals (16th)
0.43 G/GP (22nd)
101 ES Goals (20th)
1.36 G/60 (32nd)
321 Points (30th)
2.75 P/60 (59th)
ATOI 19:03 (41st)
GP 368 (8th)
2024 Caphit 7.875 (44th)

Laine
118 Goals (45th)
0.38 G/60 (41st)
78 ES Goals (69th)
1.26 G/60 (50th)
245 Points (71st)
2.61 P/60 (75th)
ATOI 18:22 (62nd)
GP 307 (177th)
2024 Caphit 8.70 (25th)

Nylander
129 Goals (33rd)
0.38 G/GP (41st)
93 ES Goals (29th)
1.31 G/60 (41st)
295 Points (39th)
2.99 P/60 (34th)
ATOI 17:37 (101st)
GP 336 (105th)
2024 Caphit ~10? (8th)

There is a poll for the top 25 wingers in the NHL, I’ll be curious to see where these guys fall.

Easy to paint Laine on bad light using 5 year sample since he had bad 2018-2019 and 2020-2021 seasons.

Last 2 years forwards 5v5 P/60:
47. Laine
50. Nylander
201. DeBrincat

 

[Cowumbus]

I analyze data for work, and I wouldn't treat data as you do here. It's possible to make a case using data when ignoring context but it's not going to bring accurate results. "Garbage in, garbage out"

Garbage in, garbage out - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Okay. I will make sure to only use data you consider valid.

Easy to paint Laine on bad light using 5 year sample since he had bad 2018-2019 and 2020-2021 seasons.

Last 2 years forwards 5v5 P/60:
47. Laine
50. Nylander
201. DeBrincat

Yep and “star winger” Pavel Buchnevich at 21.

Now search ES G/60. Laine and DeBrincat have a whopping 0.01 difference in ES G/60.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

I do too…

Okay. I will make sure to only use data you consider valid.


Yep and “star winger” Pavel Buchnevich at 21.

Buchnevic is an excellent player

 

[Cowumbus]

And the year prior:

Yes now tell me how Laine is FAR AND AWAY better than the other two. All three are similar - NOT STARS at the NHL level.

 

[VT]

1. Are there the same conditions?
2. Are there a quality of moments, comparison of partners, against whom the line played?
3. Is there a comparison of other lines with the line where the players played?

Btw, this season thanks the Nyquist -- Jenner -- Laine line had any chance to play in the PO. And it was Patrick who played an important role there.

Going forward, DeBrincat has been healthy all season, Laine has been injured, and has returned without quality on-ice training. It should have taken some time to get back in shape. But it counts towards that statistic too.

That's me talking about the season before last, you didn't give the stats for that one.

If stats were so easy, teams wouldn't need their own stats. The conclusion is obvious, you can only judge players if you have quality data that takes into account every little detail.

P.S. Just saying that open source stats are often not very accurate. I also don't discuss who's a star and who isn't. It doesn't matter at all, by the way. I've had enough to watch some of the "stars" in the PO.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

Yes now tell me how Laine is FAR AND AWAY better than the other two. All three are similar - NOT STARS at the NHL level.

Oh, I don't think it's far and away. Maybe more of a gap with DeBrincat in my books, but I really like Nylander. Althrough Leafs have a great top 6 and elite PP (and in general a well functioning team), so I'm a bit worried that boosts the stats a bit in comparison. Nylander's next contract is just going to be a stinker of it starts with a 10

 

[majormajor]

Must everything always turn into a Laine argument... But if it must, I'd like to offer an alternative "star" definition: Something that gets fans excited on a regular basis, not just points. Something that the fans "expect" or "hope" to happen in a game, and something that does indeed happen fairly often by an individual player. Laine has that shot, and it's especially great when he gets that one-timer off on a good pass. It's exciting, it gets the crowd going. On the PP, we hope he gets a great setup and unleashes that cannon.

I've learned not to get too excited when Laine gets a chance to shoot. He's more likely these days to overpass or dust it off.

I like his overall game a lot more last year, though he is still super inconsistent period to period.

 

[Cowumbus]

1. Are there the same conditions?
2. Are there a quality of moments, comparison of partners, against whom the line played?
3. Is there a comparison of other lines with the line where the players played?

Btw, this season thanks the Nyquist -- Jenner -- Laine line had any chance to play in the PO. And it was Patrick who played an important role there.

Going forward, DeBrincat has been healthy all season, Laine has been injured, and has returned without quality on-ice training. It should have taken some time to get back in shape. But it counts towards that statistic too.

That's me talking about the season before last, you didn't give the stats for that one.

If stats were so easy, teams wouldn't need their own stats. The conclusion is obvious, you can only judge players if you have quality data that takes into account every little detail.

P.S. I don't know what stats would be so inaccurate, just saying that open source stats are often not very accurate.

The eye test is enough. But I think some people might be blind.
FYI I t think Buchnevich is great but not an NHL star.

Oh, I don't think it's far and away. Maybe more of a gap with DeBrincat in my books, but I really like Nylander. Althrough Leafs have a great top 6 and elite PP, so I'm a bit worried that boosts the stats a bit in comparison. Nylander's next contract is just going to be a stinker of it starts with a 10

Do you consider any of them Stars?

 

[VT]

The eye test is enough. But I think some people might be blind.


Do you consider any of them Stars?

Have you seen every game of these players, compared lines they play against, who they play against, the condition (injury) of individual players, the quality of chances and generally all the little things?

 

[Marioesque]

I do too

But you're on vacation from using your faculties properly?

I don't know what you're trying to prove with more selected data points with no context. Trying to demonstrate what garbage in, garbage out looks like? Thanks for the visual aid

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

Do you consider any of them Stars?

Nylander and Laine, sure. Both just have some limiting situations.

Laine is always injured which will hurt his "star status". If he played 82 games last 2 seasons he'd get a lot more respect.

Nylander is playing behind younger super stars in Matthews and Marner, which hurts his "star status". If he gets traded and keeps up the level he has been at, he'll then get a bigger spotlight

 

[Cowumbus]

Have you seen every game of these players, compared lines they play against, who they play against, the condition (injury) of individual players, the quality of chances and generally all the little things?

Have you?

DeBrincat I watched a ton, though more while he was on the Hawks, due to my roommate being a Blackhawks fan. But I do try to follow the Senators due to Josh Norris (Michigan) and Pinto.

Nylander I watched a lot just due to how much the Leafs are on TV. Of course I have not watched every game. However hinting that I don’t watch these guys is infuriating, because I’d wager during an NHL game week I watch a minimum of 20 games.

 

[Cowumbus]

But you're on vacation from using your faculties properly?

Show me the model you built please. I am showing some data that is available.

I don't know what you're trying to prove with more selected data points with no context. Trying to demonstrate what garbage in, garbage out looks like? Thanks for the visual aid

You are mad because you have no data to show that Laine is better, so now you’re throwing a hissy fit and trying to attack me rather than the argument. Drink the Koolaid.

 

[Cowumbus]

Nylander and Laine, sure. Both just have some limiting situations.

Laine is always injured which will hurt his "star status". If he played 82 games last 2 seasons he'd get a lot more respect.

Nylander is playing behind younger super stars in Matthews and Marner, which hurts his "star status". If he gets traded and keeps up the level he has been at, he'll then get a bigger spotlight

To me a star player is someone that is normally the first to second best player (and in rare cases third, for a team like EDM) if they were added to any team in the league.

IMO the only person like that on Cbus is Gaudreau.

 

[stevo61]

To me a star player is someone that is normally the first to second best player (sometimes third for a team like EDM) if they were added to any team in the league.

Who is Edmonton's 3rd star? Buchnevich is better than Edmonton's 3rd best forward

 

[Cowumbus]

Who is Edmonton's 3rd star? Buchnevich is better than Edmonton's 3rd best forward

I’m saying that if JG were traded to EDM, he would be ranked 3rd best on their team. But on 90+ percent on NHL teams he’s top 1-2.

They have 2 stars.

 

[stevo61]

I’m saying that if JG were traded to EDM, he would be ranked 3rd. But on 90+ percent on NHL teams he’s top 1-2.

Gotcha.

Edmonton is a fun one though because Laine on that PP probably does some funky things to his numbers and the perception around him changes

 

[Cowumbus]

Gotcha.

Edmonton is a fun one though because Laine on that PP probably does some funky things to his numbers and the perception around him changes

That’s the thing though, I think DeBrincat would do pretty much the exact same as Laine (we have some data to work with going back to McDavid/Cat in Erie).

I think DeBrincat/Laine/Nylander are all great players, even first liners, but they are not close to being at the Marner/Gaudreau/Kaprizov level. I don’t think I consider Marchand to be a star player, but if he came to Columbus I assume he would be the #2 ranked player no?