I do believe the leadership group is fragile and that resonates down to the rest of the team.
Going back to 2014-15, the time where the initial part of the "core group" formed (Monahan, Gaudreau, Backlund, Giordano and Brodie), anytime there's been expectations placed on them they fold.
14-15, the comeback kids the magical run to the 2nd round, there was no expectations that year, no pressure, sure it was unsustainable and lucky but it feels like they were just loose and having fun since they had no "pressure" on them.
15-16, they enter the season coming off a 2nd round playoff appearance, just acquired a young top 4 defender in Dougie Hamilton, expectations of making the playoffs but just an abysmal performance all year, the only positive taken from that year was drafting Tkachuk.
16-17, enter the season with a new coach and goaltending tandem and no expectations really, just hoping the team would be in the race and possibly snag a playoff spot, which they did, however that was mostly due to the 13-1-1 run from mid Feb to mid March, then got swept by a Ducks team that was missing some key defenders (Fowler, and Lindholm or Manson, if I'm not mistaken)
17-18, trade 3 draft picks for Hamonic, bring in a veteran goalie, there were expectations placed on the group to better their performance from the previous year, talk of them getting to the 100 point mark as a team, an inconsistent season that had them sitting in 2nd place in the division when they bye-week came about then the train came off the rails and the season ended horribly, didn't even have our lottery pick because the trade.
18-19, enter again with a new coach and lots of new additions to the line-up (Lindholm, Neal, Ryan, Dube, Czarnik, Hanifin, Valimaki) the only expectations was to fight for a playoff spot and not fold as they did the previous season. The team goes on to have one of the franchise's best regular seasons, largely carried by the play in the 1st half, as their play dropped dramatically after the all-star break.
18-19 playoffs, entering as the top seed in the west, expectations of a deep run, most fans hoping for a push to at least the 3rd round, they get run out of the building by MacKinnon and lose in 5 games to the 17th ranked team in the NHL
19-20, expectations of making the playoffs in consecutive years for the first time since they made it back to back in 08 and 09. A wildly inconsistent season thus far, being shut-out 6 times, having the horrendous 6 game losing streak only to be propped back up into playoff contention with a 7 game and a 5 game winning streak, the Bill Peters' saga, the TJ Brodie incident, their inability to score goals going from 2nd last season to 25th so far.
In my opinion, I don't believe the "core" group and leaders on this team know how to handle/perform under pressure, I would hope Treliving is going after Gallant or Laviolette to coach this group but I'm not too optimistic about that. I would ride the rest of the season out maybe call-up some deserving AHL guys (Czarnik, Quine, Gawdin), I wouldn't trade any picks or prospects for a rental as I don't believe this team is close to competing for the cup yet. If you miss the playoffs or get embarrassed in the 1st round, then start to look at the "core" group and make changes as necessary (I'd keep, Lindholm, Tkachuk, Dube, Andersson, Valimaki and Rittich, the rest can be moved for the right price). Tre has 1 more coach hire to really right this ship.
My take here could be completely wrong, as the team could come out of the break looking absolutely world class and go on a run, but based on what we've seen to date, I don't think that would happen.
TLDR: I don't think the core group can handle/perform under pressure, give them the rest of the season and see what happens before making any rash decisions.
A lot of good points in this post, the main point however is spot on, for now.
The leadership core has not shown it can perform under pressure,
during the playoffs. I can't help but think that our infamous, maybe frustrating? Quality of coming back in third periods during the last few years shows this team has the give a f*** factor, when it matters, and when the pressure is
off (as you've mentioned in this post). How many times has this team been down and out by 2,3 even 4 goals sometimes during the third and they've staged a miracle comeback? More times than I can count, and more times than the rest of the league can say for themselves. This team, if I'm being honest, kind of impresses me for long stretches when they seem to dominate entire games, and dictate the play. So much so, that if you browse opposing team subreddits, game threads etc. they talk about how they wish they had Johnny, Tkachuk, Monahan, Giordano, Rittich etc. And we've done this under multiple coaches (coming back/dominating for stretches), does this mean we're cup worthy? No, not at all. This team has to show another gear or two to prove they're worthy of being in that conversation.
As for Treliving and the direction that he takes our management, I can't give my opinion without saying that I have given Tre the benefit of the doubt since the Hamilton trade in 2015. Not just that, but the fact that any time there is a big name available, we always seem to be in the mix (Hamilton, Bishop, Fleury, hell even Ovechkin when there were rumours of his availability in 2017). We have been a pretty exciting team to follow the past few years, just in terms of of that sort of stuff. His ability to be consistently working the phones has been noted around the league, and that alone gives me faith that he is always
trying to make this team better.
Treliving rebuilt our prospect cupboard pretty well after 2014 when it was bare as f***ing hell when he joined. We now have a pretty good core and youth group, our current prospect pool isn't great but that's to be expected when you are constantly trading picks trying to get better during your window. Now that in and of itself hasn't worked out great in our favour, but I respect Treliving for trying to address team needs during the moment.
The only trade I can
really fault Tre for is the Hamonic one from this list, and honestly even then we thought Hamonic was a top 4 defensemen with physicality, which honestly he hasn't even been bad at being during his tenure here (that Hanifin pairing though, woof.) The rest of the trades were just moves to add depth in positions of need (RD, RW, G) by giving up low risk picks (although our prospect cupboard isn't great right now as a result of it). Our drafting has been pretty good under him ( no more Kris Chucko, Negrin, Irvings). And let's be honest here, his RFA signings have been money.
HOWEVER, that doesn't mean he has been perfect. Coaching hires (Gultuzan) UFA signings (Brouwer, Neal) have been kind of sort of awful maybe. It seems that Treliving has been good at building a core that we can build around, and signing them to team-friendly contracts), but he has
not been good at adding the finishing pieces to compliment what is already there, despite his attempts. This is where I would think that GM like Rutherford would come in handy, someone who can add a killer piece or two in the realms of Kessel with the Penguins or something like that.
At the end of the day, building a good team is f***ing hard in the NHL. Building one that is consistently a cup threat is even harder, especially when you haven't drafted higher than 4th in the past 20 years (and that pick turned out to be Bennett, bless him). I wouldn't be surprised to see Tre canned in a couple years if we have missed the playoffs one or both seasons from now, but there is no denying he is probably the best GM of the Flames I've seen in my lifetime (yeah...not saying a whole lot). And he's human at the end of the day, he's not an omnipresent GM using player values in NHL 20 to gauge trades and stuff. There's a lot of turning parts in the NHL, and in in real life in general. He seems to handle adversity quite well, which is why my respect for him increased 10 fold with his leadership during the Peters saga which came out of nowhere. He doesn't seem to make panic moves much ( or at all, really). He waits and see's what he believes to be the best move for the team, whether it truly is or not. That in and of itself makes me think he needs more time to learn what this team really needs because none of us really know what that piece could be or even is ( I mean it could be Toffoli, or it could be trading away Monahan in the middle of the season).
The next 6 months will make or break Treliving's stay here, IMO. What he does to address the glaring need of a RH forward, and hiring a coach who can be a long-term stay (no offence to Ward) especially with a couple quality coaches available. It remains to be seen. The pacific is so f***ing tight rn, it really depends how we do the next couple of months and how this team performs in the playoffs if they make it come April. A first round exit shakes a lot of confidence around the core, winning a round or maybe 2 brings a whole lot of stability to this conversation IMO.
TLDR: BT has built a pretty good team with decent main pieces, but without much to show for. Not a whole lot to compliment it, but there is still time for this core to get something done. This organization has a lot to f***ing prove.
