Speculation: Anthony Cirelli offer sheet

[Hunter368]

Bump. Winnipeg could use a 2C and they have the cap space. Just do it, Cheveldayoff!

While the Jets would love to have Cirelli, I highly doubt Chipman & Thompson ever use the OS option........the organization is the poster child in the NHL on good conduct & respecting other organizations. Don't get me wrong, I would love for them to use it and the Jets have lots of cap space.............I just don't see it. If Chevy can't get it done via trade then I don't see it happening. IMO

 

[Grand Admiral Thrawn]

Not as good as his dad Dino

 

[Flyer lurker]

Few things. It's obvious of the 3 RFA's Cernak would be the odd man out, but I'm honestly not sure how much that really saves them. I don't know how you've come to the conclusion that the only way they lose one of Cirelli or Sergachev is if they both sign offersheets. Or how 14 million between the 2 of them is the breaking point. There's way too many variables to say that. I think they'll move Killorn and that's a start, but after that I dont think it's impossible they wiggle out of Johnson or Gourde, but it'll be very difficult. As for offersheets we really don't know the frequency at which they occur (in all likelihood they probably are very infrequent), because it usually requires that the player sign it for it to get out to the media and fans. As someone else said Point was allegedly offersheeted, but he had no interest in signing it. Those things may occur a bit more often than we as fans are aware of.

I look at it like this. These guys signed a contract with TB and took less money because they wanted to be on a competitive team. As a result they wanted NMC/NTC which they were given. It isn't impossible that these guys might ok a trade, but if you had control over your job and had a great situation and management asked you to take a pay cut, move out of state, and go to an overall less desirable location, you'd probably just decline.
As for Cirelli and Sergachev you're bang on. The motivation to sign an offersheet is money, and ultimately they might not even have to leave TB if the team matches the offersheet. If not, they know at the very least they can make millions more earlier in their career playing somewhere else. That's not the end all be all for some, but it's a big factor for a lot of athletes.

Killorn is traded 4.4m out say 900k player in place. That move is easy.

Paquette is traded 1.6m out replace by 900k 700k savings.

It takes one trade of Gourde or Johnson. And we can all speculate on here what will happen or not happen. Will they trade 4m and retain 1m? Will they have to give up legit picks for someone to take 5m or 5.1m. Will they have to go through Detroit NJ etc. to give up pick to retain 500k-1m. We'll see. Time for BriseBois to earn his paycheck. I would like like to think BriseBois is smarter than us on this board. Maybe they trade both 500k-1m retained but that f depth gets ugly then.

The problem on these boards are extremes. Gourde/Johnson will never waive their ntc. No it will take permission and being traded to a legit contender/playing time to waive the trades. Compensation will stink or be negative but TB has to deal with it. Other side goes of course they will waive for Detroit because Tyler Johnson can't wait to play 18 minutes 2nd line to go back to Stevie Y. UM DOUBT IT! There are middle grounds.

Ideally Serge/Cirelli 2 year bridge deals 8.5m-9m total for 20/21. In this case I can get Cernak at 3m (Sanheim bridge was 3.25m and include FL tax break). For record I have said the smartest offer sheet is Cernak at 4m. Only cost you a 2 and 4m won't cost you a big time free agent. How much is breaking point where you would have to lose one of Serg/Cirelli? 10m total easy keep. 12m total? Its gets in the hmmm category. 14M total my reaction is Tb is screwed then. It is why I have said Serge offer sheet has to be 8m (3-24)for TB to even think about it.

Flip side we are assuming after NHL owners just took the biggest financial beating in their lives that gms will be allowed to play maverick and go big offer sheets when the 14-19 off seasons only featuered 1.

We'll see.

 

[JackFr]

I don't have anything to contribute here but my affection for that one Red Wings fan who with 100% sincerity offered Luke Glendening and a 2nd

 

[Whileee]

Not below market value. Below what they could get on offer sheet. Big difference.

Sanheim 2year at 3.25m as example so Serg raise is 4.5-5m

Domi was 2 year bridge at 3.15 so Cirelli 4m per at 2 years.

TB won't be able to afford $8.5M under a $81.5M cap even after trading Killorn, unless they can find a way to get one of their expensive players to waive a NTC. I'm still skeptical they'll be able to do that, but I suppose time will tell.

 

[JoemAvs]

TB won't be able to afford $8.5M under a $81.5M cap even after trading Killorn, unless they can find a way to get one of their expensive players to waive a NTC. I'm still skeptical they'll be able to do that, but I suppose time will tell.

Depending on the cap number, there will probably a ton of teams wanting to shed salary and not a ton of teams wanting to just take on salary this offseason...

Considering that it looks like we won't see any fans in stadiums any time soon, those teams will probably run into a massive shortfall of revenue.
Thats why I think fans on here are a bit off the rocker in regards to what we will see this off season.

I mean my team the Avs are in a prime situation to benefit from the amount of capspace in the offseason but I personally fully expect them to stay put (at most sign their own guys to decent sized extensions) or even look to shed some salary themselves knowing Kroenke and how COVID-19 is hitting his entertainment business...


I don't think it will be easy to just dump 5M on someone for little in return. A guy like Killorn IMO won't have the kind of value many think and if Tampa wants to trade him for no salary in return might even have to sweeten the pot.
I mean I could see a team like the Habs pouncing in the offseason and doing very well due to their deep pockets but I think all these other smaller teams with a ton of capspace won't be as eager to help teams out that are in a crunch by taking on salary unless we talk about "dead" contracts that get paid by insurance...

IMO if the Habs go after one of the Lightning RFAs, they could very well succeed..

People are also underestimating the fact that there very likely could be no AHL, CHL or NCAA season in 2020-21. All these leagues rely on gate revenue much more.
If that is the case many teams will put their cheap prospects in the NHL and not acquire costly depth pieces...

 

[ValeriKamensky]

Really strange to hear about "Players wanna stay in Tampa". Ok, for example, you play for Lightning, you feel yourself pretty good and you really wanna stay here. But they give you 3,5x2. At the same time New Jersey Devils (for example) give you 5,5x6 years. Hard to imagine a player who will take 7 million deal instead 33 million just because his desire to stay

 

[LightningStrikes]

Really strange to hear about "Players wanna stay in Tampa". Ok, for example, you play for Lightning, you feel yourself pretty good and you really wanna stay here. But they give you 3,5x2. At the same time New Jersey Devils (for example) give you 5,5x6 years. Hard to imagine a player who will take 7 million deal instead 33 million just because his desire to stay

Hyperbole bro. Of course there is limits and money is a big factor. But bridge deals for RFAs are an accepted and real thing and especially in Tampa. See Kucherov, see Point. Take less now (bridge), team stays successful, get rewarded and cash in later.

 

[Richard88]

I love how it's ridiculous to assume Johnson or Gourde would waive to leave a Cup contender, a tax free state and a beautiful weather city. But it's totally expected that Sergachev and Cirelli will leave that to sign an offersheet with a team that doesn't provide that.

Tampa being a tax free state doesn't matter much if the offer from another team is way above what Tampa are offering. There's other low tax states like Colorado too (4.63%) where the difference in tax would be negligible.

If Tampa offer Cirelli $4.5m x 3 years ($13.5m) compared to Colorado offering $7m x 3 years ($21m total) I think you'd at least make Cirelli think about whether he prefers the sunshine or if he would rather earn an extra $7.5m... not to mention that a $7m OS likely puts his qualifying offer at $7m as well so he would be guaranteed a good next deal as well, unlike the $4.5m deal from Tampa (unless his salary is back loaded of course).

 

[Flyer lurker]

Really strange to hear about "Players wanna stay in Tampa". Ok, for example, you play for Lightning, you feel yourself pretty good and you really wanna stay here. But they give you 3,5x2. At the same time New Jersey Devils (for example) give you 5,5x6 years. Hard to imagine a player who will take 7 million deal instead 33 million just because his desire to stay

My understanding is if NJD offered 5.5m for 6 years it cost you 4 1's. TBL will take that offer.

Yeah but if NJD trades for ... SO WHAT? When did 22 year olds in the NHL demand where they go? I missed the memo on that. If there are no offer sheets then he can hold out the year and make $0.

 

[JoemAvs]

Tampa being a tax free state doesn't matter much if the offer from another team is way above what Tampa are offering. There's other low tax states like Colorado too (4.63%) where the difference in tax would be negligible.

If Tampa offer Cirelli $4.5m x 3 years ($13.5m) compared to Colorado offering $7m x 3 years ($21m total) I think you'd at least make Cirelli think about whether he prefers the sunshine or if he would rather earn an extra $7.5m... not to mention that a $7m OS likely puts his qualifying offer at $7m as well so he would be guaranteed a good next deal as well, unlike the $4.5m deal from Tampa (unless his salary is back loaded of course).

I don't think the Avs will offer him 7M.
As I stated above I don't see the Avs being in the mix for that at all.
Too many young players to re-sign and probably no money available at all in the offseason to do things like that. ( I am talking real $ not cap $).
And aside from MTL I don't see any team doing that in a climate like this either.
Not many teams will have enough capspace and owners with deep enough pockets to do that.

I think due to the uncertainty we will see players like Cirelli go for cheaper longterm deals that offer more security. Not sure if team will offer him that much money considering the current circumstances but he certainly is a guy I could see offersheeted by Montreal if Tampa keeps the bridge too low.
But maybe he gambles on the economy rebounding in a couple of years to cash in and goes with a bridge which probably would make Tampa fans very happy.

 

[Richard88]

My understanding is if NJD offered 5.5m for 6 years it cost you 4 1's. TBL will take that offer.

Yeah but if NJD trades for ... SO WHAT? When did 22 year olds in the NHL demand where they go? I missed the memo on that. If there are no offer sheets then he can hold out the year and make $0.

A $5.5m x 6 year offersheet would cost only a 1st + 2nd + 3rd.

 

[Whileee]

My understanding is if NJD offered 5.5m for 6 years it cost you 4 1's. TBL will take that offer.

Yeah but if NJD trades for ... SO WHAT? When did 22 year olds in the NHL demand where they go? I missed the memo on that. If there are no offer sheets then he can hold out the year and make $0.

Any offer sheet up to around $7M x 6 years has a compensation of 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.

I could see a team offering Cirelli that, or maybe $6.5M x 6 years. The question is whether Cirelli would take the security of around $40 million, or turn that down to stay in TB for $8M on a bridge deal in this financial climate.

 

[Flyer lurker]

Any offer sheet up to around $7M x 6 years has a compensation of 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.

I could see a team offering Cirelli that, or maybe $6.5M x 6 years. The question is whether Cirelli would take the security of around $40 million, or turn that down to stay in TB for $8M on a bridge deal in this financial climate.

When there has been 1 offer sheet in 7 years how can you see that?

1,2,3 for Cirelli unless you are Colorado is wrong plan. Lets take NJ would you rather keep 1 2 3 and use the 6.5m to sign say a Mike Hoffman or all in on Cirelli and if you miss playoffs (which in Metro is pretty darn likely) lose a potential top 3 pick? Ask San Jose fans this year what the right strategy is. Colorado is only team that makes any sense to do it because their picks and as close to guaranteed 25+ per round as you are going to get. Other than Colorado who has cap room and guarantee they won't miss the playoffs?

 

[Whileee]

When there has been 1 offer sheet in 7 years how can you see that?

1,2,3 for Cirelli unless you are Colorado is wrong plan. Lets take NJ would you rather keep 1 2 3 and use the 6.5m to sign say a Mike Hoffman or all in on Cirelli and if you miss playoffs (which in Metro is pretty darn likely) lose a potential top 3 pick? Ask San Jose fans this year what the right strategy is. Colorado is only team that makes any sense to do it because their picks and as close to guaranteed 25+ per round as you are going to get. Other than Colorado who has cap room and guarantee they won't miss the playoffs?

The Jets could make it work, and they need a 2C. But I doubt they would work via an OS.

You never know which other teams might consider it, but you are right, it seems unlikely now. However, if TB isn't offering an attractive contract, Cirelli's agent will likely go looking for potential offer sheets. Also, they have other pressure tactics, like holding out, which would ramp up the cap hit next season as in the Trouba and Nylander situations.

The other risk is that Sergachev signs an offer sheet. Even if TB matches, they will likely not be able to give Cirelli close to what he's looking for.

I still think that Cirelli is a better target for a trade than an OS.

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

Really strange to hear about "Players wanna stay in Tampa". Ok, for example, you play for Lightning, you feel yourself pretty good and you really wanna stay here. But they give you 3,5x2. At the same time New Jersey Devils (for example) give you 5,5x6 years. Hard to imagine a player who will take 7 million deal instead 33 million just because his desire to stay

Avs are a better example. Signing that contract with the NJ Devils likely means signing yourself out of the SCF for at least half of that time (though I acknowledge a lot can happen in a year or two). 2 years also takes him to the point that Johnson and Palat's NTCs change to modified NTCs (and 1 year after that, Gourde's also changes).

 

[Whileee]

When there has been 1 offer sheet in 7 years how can you see that?

1,2,3 for Cirelli unless you are Colorado is wrong plan. Lets take NJ would you rather keep 1 2 3 and use the 6.5m to sign say a Mike Hoffman or all in on Cirelli and if you miss playoffs (which in Metro is pretty darn likely) lose a potential top 3 pick? Ask San Jose fans this year what the right strategy is. Colorado is only team that makes any sense to do it because their picks and as close to guaranteed 25+ per round as you are going to get. Other than Colorado who has cap room and guarantee they won't miss the playoffs?

An offer sheet might be uncommon, but so is waiving a full NTC to leave a contender in a desirable market. Gourde, Johnson and Palat would have complete control over which teams they could be traded to if they waived their NTC. I can't really think of any teams that any of them would agree to go to that is: 1) a contender, 2) has cap space, 3) is as desirable a location as Tampa.

 

[Shnooks]

Jason Botterill will be all over this...2C is his biggest need and he has the cap space to make the move.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

If Tampa really is at risk of him being offer sheeted I would gladly do something around Kadri for Cirelli as an Avs fan. Brisbois has shown with his Goodrow and Coleman trades that he’s willing to drastically overpay first good value contracts. 2 more years of Kadri at 4.5 would be solid for Tampa and he can easily absorb the shutdown centre ability that Cirelli provides. Avs get younger and faster which they look to accomplish with pretty much every move.

 

[wintersej]

If Tampa really is at risk of him being offer sheeted I would gladly do something around Kadri for Cirelli as an Avs fan. Brisbois has shown with his Goodrow and Coleman trades that he’s willing to drastically overpay first good value contracts. 2 more years of Kadri at 4.5 would be solid for Tampa and he can easily absorb the shutdown centre ability that Cirelli provides. Avs get younger and faster which they look to accomplish with pretty much every move.

Id take Cirelli over Kadri today, Nevermind long term. Not disagreeing with your post at all, just trying to say how good I think he is .

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Id take Cirelli over Kadri today, Nevermind long term. Not disagreeing with your post at all, just trying to say how good I think he is .

I love Cirelli too. I think he’s about even with Kadri today or slightly behind (don’t forget Kadri played at a 31 goal/58 point pace in a very defensive role this year) but probably catches him or surpasses him next year.

The deal 100% favors Colorado long term. I’m just suggesting it in the case of Tampa fearing an offer sheet. Kadri for 2 years at 4.5 beats the hell out of a 1st and a 3rd if you’re Tampa.

 

[McJedi]

I hope you see the flaw in your rhetoric saying Johnson or whoever would never waive their NTC to leave the sunny cup contender Tampa but Sergachev will gladly go to Winnipeg the minute he gets an offer when he's going fishing and boating and partying and working out beachside with his good pals Kuch and Vasi while playing for said sunny cup contender.

Tampa has a track record of RFAs taking a conservative bridge deal after the team has freed up cap room accordingly. The one recent offer sheet to one of our RFAs that went public was to Point, who declined in heartbeat praising the Lightning org, the team, the city and its community. Tampa also has a track record of players taking less compared to market value in order to stay (Hedman, Stamkos, Kucherov - to name just the big fishes). Every season people like you proclaim that we'll lose a big name player or an up and rising youngster due to our cap situation and the Lightning have always made it work. They even added more pieces later in each season to further improve the team. I know it makes for good drama and all but you're probably going to get disappointed.

The list of GMs willing to put up an OS big enough to maybe entice Serg or Cirelli is short, even more so after COVID-19. It's not really well received among the league, success rates aren't exactly high, the price on the other hand is really high and in the end it all depends on the sought after player to actually agree. And whether that happens is even more unpredictable: On himself, his partner, his family, their friends and relationship to teammates, the organization, the city and its community, their hobbies, properties, affilition and preferences (wheather, life style...)...

I get that the situation is tricky. To make it work for Serg, Cirelli, (Cernak) a lot of pieces have to be moved around, agreements with other players and teams have to be reached and I wouldn't want to switch places with Brisebois for sure. But I'm confident our management will explore all options, do their best and in the end we'll have one, likely two, maybe even all three of them on the team again next season. At what cost we will find out soon enough.

Are you kidding? You don't see my logic. Do you understand math and dollars? Broken down very simply. Serg will make MORE money playing elsewhere, perhaps a lot more depending on the OS. He's a professional hockey player and these guys play for money as a primary motivator (not the only one, but a primary one). Will Cirelli pick money over Tampa? That is a very easy to understand equation. And he may pick Tampa over making more money elsewhere. Money isn't the only reason most of these guys play, but it sure is a huge reason why. So you tempt them with more money to leave.

Tyler Johnson. He'll make LESS money waiving this NTC and playing elsewhere thru this contract he's on in the form of paying more state income taxes AND he leaves a contender and awesome winter environment in Tampa. Factor in moving his wife and family during Covid-19, the discomfort of a new team and city, making LESS money and playing on a worse team. IT IS REALLY freaking obvious why Tyler Johnson is less likely to waive his NTC than someone like Cirelli is likely to pursue making more money than staying in Tampa. And as money isn't everything, it matters which teams offer sheet a guy.

If I'm right and none of the Tampa players with NTCs waive them, what do you think happens if a team does offer sheet Cirelli ($6.3MM - 3 years) or Serg ($7.5MM - 3 years)?

I assume Killorn is traded this offseason (seems a slam dunk given), but that doesn't cover the gap from what I can tell. He saves just $3.55MM over a ELC and trading Paquette gets you to the low $4s with two ELC replacements. That's not enough. To me, Tampa needs one of two potentially realistic things to happen. A compliance buyout is their best hope. Their second best hope is that these RFAs take below market deals to stay in Tampa. As you've said, it's happened many times before.

My retort. A team as good/equal to Tampa as the Avs hasn't come along with cap space to use to make a guy like Cirelli think about his options. I'm in full agreement in with you that signing an offer sheet with the likes of Buffalo, Jersey or Ottawa is both dangerous for those teams given they'd see a likely high pick head to Tampa the next off-season and... well... who really wants to move from Tampa to Ottawa. Colorado doesn't have the concerns about watching a high 2021 draft pick walk out the door so there is a ton of upside to them reaching out to Cireilli's agent to probe. And I'm sure it bothers Tampa fans to think about losing a Cirelli for little more than a low first and low 3rd. Throw in low second if the Avs need to increase the offer above $6.3MM. I don't think the Avs lose any sleep over that cost. Tampa would.

 

[WTFMAN99]

If I was Buffalo I would be all over this to be honest. Real chance to get a good 2C behind Eichel without gambling on Mittelstadt or Cozens. If one of them eventually works out, Cirelli moves down to 3C or you have a highly desirable trade chip.

 

[McJedi]

Tampa being a tax free state doesn't matter much if the offer from another team is way above what Tampa are offering. There's other low tax states like Colorado too (4.63%) where the difference in tax would be negligible.

If Tampa offer Cirelli $4.5m x 3 years ($13.5m) compared to Colorado offering $7m x 3 years ($21m total) I think you'd at least make Cirelli think about whether he prefers the sunshine or if he would rather earn an extra $7.5m... not to mention that a $7m OS likely puts his qualifying offer at $7m as well so he would be guaranteed a good next deal as well, unlike the $4.5m deal from Tampa (unless his salary is back loaded of course).

Colorado has a lot more sunshine than Tampa. It rains a good deal in Florida. Lovely winters, but Colorado definitely has more annual sunshine.

 

[Grand Admiral Thrawn]

Question. Can Tampa or any team for that matter get multiple offer sheets at the same time?

Can the Hans offer sheet Sergachev and at the same time another team. Offer sheet Cirelli?
Or is it one at a time?