Speculation: Anthony Cirelli offer sheet

[McJedi]

Question. Can Tampa or any team for that matter get multiple offer sheets at the same time?

Can the Hans offer sheet Sergachev and at the same time another team. Offer sheet Cirelli?
Or is it one at a time?

Optically, that could look like collusion if say, the Avs hit Cirelli with an OS at the same time the Habs did so with Serg. And if there was collusion, think huge fines and loss of draft picks. If it was just coincidence, that is Ok, but you have to figure the NHL would investigate, talk to agents, GMs, players, etc. Hard to see this happening in real life.

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

Question. Can Tampa or any team for that matter get multiple offer sheets at the same time?

Can the Hans offer sheet Sergachev and at the same time another team. Offer sheet Cirelli?
Or is it one at a time?

The one that he signs.

 

[Whileee]

Question. Can Tampa or any team for that matter get multiple offer sheets at the same time?

Can the Hans offer sheet Sergachev and at the same time another team. Offer sheet Cirelli?
Or is it one at a time?

No real issue with two teams preparing offer sheets for different players. They could happen at the same time, particularly just as free agency period opens.

 

[Grand Admiral Thrawn]

No real issue with two teams preparing offer sheets for different players. They could happen at the same time, particularly just as free agency period opens.

Man if that were to happen, Tampa would ry be screwed.

Imagine Habs tender a OS to Serge for 6.2mill 5 years and the same day Avs tender Cirelli a 5 year 5 mill OS and both are signed?

Would TB match both and then start operation player dump.

 

[Whileee]

Man if that were to happen, Tampa would ry be screwed.

Imagine Habs tender a OS to Serge for 6.2mill 5 years and the same day Avs tender Cirelli a 5 year 5 mill OS and both are signed?

Would TB match both and then start operation player dump.

They could match both, but they would really be under pressure and might need to do some radical things, like multiple buyouts of good players. I highly doubt it would get there. The Bolts will have a good sense about whether they are close enough to sign their RFAs, and if they are way far apart they would likely seek trades before they face the risk of an offer sheet or two.

In the end, I think both Cirelli and Sergachev will want to stay, but it's hard to see how TB can give them reasonable contracts without trading Killorn and convincing Gourde, Palat or Johnson to waive their NTC.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Are you kidding? You don't see my logic. Do you understand math and dollars? Broken down very simply. Serg will make MORE money playing elsewhere, perhaps a lot more depending on the OS. He's a professional hockey player and these guys play for money as a primary motivator (not the only one, but a primary one). Will Cirelli pick money over Tampa? That is a very easy to understand equation. And he may pick Tampa over making more money elsewhere. Money isn't the only reason most of these guys play, but it sure is a huge reason why. So you tempt them with more money to leave.

Tyler Johnson. He'll make LESS money waiving this NTC and playing elsewhere thru this contract he's on in the form of paying more state income taxes AND he leaves a contender and awesome winter environment in Tampa. Factor in moving his wife and family during Covid-19, the discomfort of a new team and city, making LESS money and playing on a worse team. IT IS REALLY freaking obvious why Tyler Johnson is less likely to waive his NTC than someone like Cirelli is likely to pursue making more money than staying in Tampa. And as money isn't everything, it matters which teams offer sheet a guy.

If I'm right and none of the Tampa players with NTCs waive them, what do you think happens if a team does offer sheet Cirelli ($6.3MM - 3 years) or Serg ($7.5MM - 3 years)?

I assume Killorn is traded this offseason (seems a slam dunk given), but that doesn't cover the gap from what I can tell. He saves just $3.55MM over a ELC and trading Paquette gets you to the low $4s with two ELC replacements. That's not enough. To me, Tampa needs one of two potentially realistic things to happen. A compliance buyout is their best hope. Their second best hope is that these RFAs take below market deals to stay in Tampa. As you've said, it's happened many times before.

My retort. A team as good/equal to Tampa as the Avs hasn't come along with cap space to use to make a guy like Cirelli think about his options. I'm in full agreement in with you that signing an offer sheet with the likes of Buffalo, Jersey or Ottawa is both dangerous for those teams given they'd see a likely high pick head to Tampa the next off-season and... well... who really wants to move from Tampa to Ottawa. Colorado doesn't have the concerns about watching a high 2021 draft pick walk out the door so there is a ton of upside to them reaching out to Cireilli's agent to probe. And I'm sure it bothers Tampa fans to think about losing a Cirelli for little more than a low first and low 3rd. Throw in low second if the Avs need to increase the offer above $6.3MM. I don't think the Avs lose any sleep over that cost. Tampa would.

You act like these guys work at Target and live paycheck to paycheck. Johnson and Palat have made over 28M so far in their careers. Palat is set to make almost 9M over the next two seasons and should get another contract after that. Johnson is still owed around 18M more. Sure they may take a little bigger hit moving to a new team but they have made plenty of money already with more to come. Gourde maybe doesn't waive because he's made only 9M or so but he's also due almost 25M the next 5 years. Again he may lose a little bit of that leaving Tampa but at the end of his current contract his career earnings will be well over 30M, I'm sure he can pay a little extra in taxes.

 

[HoseEmDown]

If Tampa really is at risk of him being offer sheeted I would gladly do something around Kadri for Cirelli as an Avs fan. Brisbois has shown with his Goodrow and Coleman trades that he’s willing to drastically overpay first good value contracts. 2 more years of Kadri at 4.5 would be solid for Tampa and he can easily absorb the shutdown centre ability that Cirelli provides. Avs get younger and faster which they look to accomplish with pretty much every move.

We can just sign Cirelli for 4.5M rather than trade him for Kadri who makes that much. And as everyone has already pointed out 4.5M in Tampa is like 6.3M in every other city.

 

[TJBrocker]

Do Tampa load their players with NTCs? Lower contracts surely only work on players if they're assured that they will remain

 

[Cousin Eddie]

We can just sign Cirelli for 4.5M rather than trade him for Kadri who makes that much. And as everyone has already pointed out 4.5M in Tampa is like 6.3M in every other city.

If Tampa can get Cirelli for 4.5aav this is all moot. I figured he was going to ask much more.

Also don’t lie about the income tax thing. That’s really irritating when people do that. According to capfriendly, 4.5M in Tampa is equal to 4.6M in Colorado. I realize that there are some cities specifically in Canada with high income tax rates but don’t act like it’s every team in the league. For Colorado it would only take an extra 100k a year in gross salary to match the net take home of Tampa in this situation.

 

[Jimmyjets]

You act like these guys work at Target and live paycheck to paycheck. Johnson and Palat have made over 28M so far in their careers. Palat is set to make almost 9M over the next two seasons and should get another contract after that. Johnson is still owed around 18M more. Sure they may take a little bigger hit moving to a new team but they have made plenty of money already with more to come. Gourde maybe doesn't waive because he's made only 9M or so but he's also due almost 25M the next 5 years. Again he may lose a little bit of that leaving Tampa but at the end of his current contract his career earnings will be well over 30M, I'm sure he can pay a little extra in taxes.

Would you voluntarily leave your job to earn less money, at a worse branch, in a worse city if you took less money on your contract in order to get agreement that your company couldn't transfer you?

You wouldn't choose to uproot your life, leave all your friends and colleagues, leave the support network that your family has built, etc. You specifically went out of your way to ensure that this didn't happen. It's not like they'd be chasing the cup with a contender. Their best chance to win is where they already are.

Nobody has ever waived their NTC to leave Tampa Bay at the team's request. Not one person ever. There's a first time for everything but it's a desirable place to live. The team is one of the best in the NHL. The taxes are low so you took a haircut on your contract to get that NTC. Why would anyone agree to waive? They negotiated that they were staying in their contract. Trade someone else.

These guys obviously could afford it, but why would they knowing the team has other options?

 

[Flyer lurker]

Man if that were to happen, Tampa would ry be screwed.

Imagine Habs tender a OS to Serge for 6.2mill 5 years and the same day Avs tender Cirelli a 5 year 5 mill OS and both are signed?

Would TB match both and then start operation player dump.

Of course they would.

Now if you make Serge 8m and Cirelli 6m its gets ugly.

 

[Whileee]

You act like these guys work at Target and live paycheck to paycheck. Johnson and Palat have made over 28M so far in their careers. Palat is set to make almost 9M over the next two seasons and should get another contract after that. Johnson is still owed around 18M more. Sure they may take a little bigger hit moving to a new team but they have made plenty of money already with more to come. Gourde maybe doesn't waive because he's made only 9M or so but he's also due almost 25M the next 5 years. Again he may lose a little bit of that leaving Tampa but at the end of his current contract his career earnings will be well over 30M, I'm sure he can pay a little extra in taxes.

Why would they want to leave a cup contender in a location they and their spouses / families like? They negotiated full NTCs specifically because they didn't want to be traded anywhere.

 

[topshelf15]

With the uncertainty of the cap moving forward,offer sheets look to be even more a risk than before

 

[BStinson]

We can just sign Cirelli for 4.5M rather than trade him for Kadri who makes that much. And as everyone has already pointed out 4.5M in Tampa is like 6.3M in every other city.

I’m assuming your not a CPA. On 5M AAV you’d pay ~2.15M in Detroit and ~1.8M in Tampa with a difference ~332,000 a year. If you’re talking other cities then maybe but Toronto (probably one of the highest tax %) would have roughly ~823,000 difference. This doesn’t even calculate property taxes which are typically higher in places with no state income taxes albeit smaller (minus NV since they have heavy gaming taxes).

 

[HoseEmDown]

Would you voluntarily leave your job to earn less money, at a worse branch, in a worse city if you took less money on your contract in order to get agreement that your company couldn't transfer you?

You wouldn't choose to uproot your life, leave all your friends and colleagues, leave the support network that your family has built, etc. You specifically went out of your way to ensure that this didn't happen. It's not like they'd be chasing the cup with a contender. Their best chance to win is where they already are.

Nobody has ever waived their NTC to leave Tampa Bay at the team's request. Not one person ever. There's a first time for everything but it's a desirable place to live. The team is one of the best in the NHL. The taxes are low so you took a haircut on your contract to get that NTC. Why would anyone agree to waive? They negotiated that they were staying in their contract. Trade someone else.

These guys obviously could afford it, but why would they knowing the team has other options?

Filpulla waived his NTC in 16/17 to go to Philadelphia. He had a partial NTC not a full which he used to nix a trade to Montreal but he agreed to waive it to go to Philly. He still had one year left on his deal too so he was given up money by moving. He probably waived because he was passed as the 2C by Johnson and the 3C by Point and had been moved to the wing on the 3rd line. He wanted to play a bigger role to get another contract which he kinda did in Philly.

Bishop nixed a trade to Calgary at the 2016 draft but agreed to go to LA at the deadline that year. He wanted to play more and Tampa was handing the job to Vasilevskiy so he knew he wasn't needed. He was a pending UFA so it made some sense to waive.

We haven't had many players with NTC prior to this current group so we really haven't needed to ask many to waive so we don't know if they'll say yes or no. But the ones we did saw the written on the wall and knew they had been passed over and that the team were going to give their minutes to someone else so they did what was best for their career. You don't have to move everything just because you were traded, there's plenty of players who's family remain in a certain city while they play in another.

The tax thing is a joke. Sure you may lose a couple hundred k but if you invest wisely you'll be fine. And in some cities you can make that money up off the rink, you aren't making huge endorsement money in Tampa while you might in other places. So we will see soon how this plays out but I wouldn't say it's a hard no on players waiving.

 

[Whileee]

Filpulla waived his NTC in 16/17 to go to Philadelphia. He had a partial NTC not a full which he used to nix a trade to Montreal but he agreed to waive it to go to Philly. He still had one year left on his deal too so he was given up money by moving. He probably waived because he was passed as the 2C by Johnson and the 3C by Point and had been moved to the wing on the 3rd line. He wanted to play a bigger role to get another contract which he kinda did in Philly.

Bishop nixed a trade to Calgary at the 2016 draft but agreed to go to LA at the deadline that year. He wanted to play more and Tampa was handing the job to Vasilevskiy so he knew he wasn't needed. He was a pending UFA so it made some sense to waive.

We haven't had many players with NTC prior to this current group so we really haven't needed to ask many to waive so we don't know if they'll say yes or no. But the ones we did saw the written on the wall and knew they had been passed over and that the team were going to give their minutes to someone else so they did what was best for their career. You don't have to move everything just because you were traded, there's plenty of players who's family remain in a certain city while they play in another.

The tax thing is a joke. Sure you may lose a couple hundred k but if you invest wisely you'll be fine. And in some cities you can make that money up off the rink, you aren't making huge endorsement money in Tampa while you might in other places. So we will see soon how this plays out but I wouldn't say it's a hard no on players waiving.

There's a huge difference between a full NTC and a partial NTC.

Filppula provided a list of 16 teams to which he could be traded. Apparently, Toronto wasn't on the list (and he refused to add them), but Philadelphia was on his list, so he was traded there instead.

Bishop only had an 8-team no-trade list, and Calgary was on it. He didn't need to waive his no-trade clause to go to LA.

Gourde, Palat and Johnson have full NTCs. They don't need to even consider permitting a trade if they want to stay in TB.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Filpulla waived his NTC in 16/17 to go to Philadelphia. He had a partial NTC not a full which he used to nix a trade to Montreal but he agreed to waive it to go to Philly. He still had one year left on his deal too so he was given up money by moving. He probably waived because he was passed as the 2C by Johnson and the 3C by Point and had been moved to the wing on the 3rd line. He wanted to play a bigger role to get another contract which he kinda did in Philly.

Bishop nixed a trade to Calgary at the 2016 draft but agreed to go to LA at the deadline that year. He wanted to play more and Tampa was handing the job to Vasilevskiy so he knew he wasn't needed. He was a pending UFA so it made some sense to waive.

We haven't had many players with NTC prior to this current group so we really haven't needed to ask many to waive so we don't know if they'll say yes or no. But the ones we did saw the written on the wall and knew they had been passed over and that the team were going to give their minutes to someone else so they did what was best for their career. You don't have to move everything just because you were traded, there's plenty of players who's family remain in a certain city while they play in another.

The tax thing is a joke. Sure you may lose a couple hundred k but if you invest wisely you'll be fine. And in some cities you can make that money up off the rink, you aren't making huge endorsement money in Tampa while you might in other places. So we will see soon how this plays out but I wouldn't say it's a hard no on players waiving.

I can accept that players will waive their ntc’s if the new location benefits their career and has minimal impact on income and quality of life.

The challenge that TB faces with moving TJ and Gourde covers multiple roadblocks as follows:

1. What teams would they waive for?
a). US only? Playoff competitor only? Availability on top-6? Low / similar taxes?

2. Will those teams that they are willing to waive for have all of the following:

A) cap space now and over the term of their contracts (considering their own rfa’s to sign near term with cap uncertainty now /near term)
B) willingness to take on a player who’s contract ends when they are well north of 30.
C) Need for a top-6 forward / an available spot for a top-6 forward. (Considering their own prospects who are being primed for those roles)
D) willingness to overlook their recent low point production relative to their cap hit.
E) capacity to take on a small forward.

A team like the Habs would probably not be on their list of suitable teams they would waive for. Habs have the highest taxes and the most disruption to family life. Most French Canadiens prefer to avoid Montreal due to the added pressure.

Habs do not have a need for a top-6 C (like TJ) with Domi/Suzuki, Danault and KK occupying spots.

Habs do not have a need for a marginal and expensive top-6 winger (Gourde) with Gallagher, Drouin, Tatar, Domi/Suzuki in place.

Habs do not want any more small forwards given the makeup of the team and future prospects (Caufield) who are smaller.

Habs need to manage cap space for 2020/2021 and 2021/2022 when their key players hit ufa and rfa status. A 5M long term contract for a forward they don’t need is bad cap management.

now do that exercise with other teams. You will find it is a huge challenge to find a fit.

 

[Jimmyjets]

I can accept that players will waive their ntc’s if the new location benefits their career and has minimal impact on income and quality of life.

The challenge that TB faces with moving TJ and Gourde covers multiple roadblocks as follows:

1. What teams would they waive for?
a). US only? Playoff competitor only? Availability on top-6? Low / similar taxes?

2. Will those teams that they are willing to waive for have all of the following:

A) cap space now and over the term of their contracts (considering their own rfa’s to sign near term with cap uncertainty now /near term)
B) willingness to take on a player who’s contract ends when they are well north of 30.
C) Need for a top-6 forward / an available spot for a top-6 forward. (Considering their own prospects who are being primed for those roles)
D) willingness to overlook their recent low point production relative to their cap hit.
E) capacity to take on a small forward.

A team like the Habs would probably not be on their list of suitable teams they would waive for. Habs have the highest taxes and the most disruption to family life. Most French Canadiens prefer to avoid Montreal due to the added pressure.

Habs do not have a need for a top-6 C (like TJ) with Domi/Suzuki, Danault and KK occupying spots.

Habs do not have a need for a marginal and expensive top-6 winger (Gourde) with Gallagher, Drouin, Tatar, Domi/Suzuki in place.

Habs do not want any more small forwards given the makeup of the team and future prospects (Caufield) who are smaller.

Habs need to manage cap space for 2020/2021 and 2021/2022 when their key players hit ufa and rfa status. A 5M long term contract for a forward they don’t need is bad cap management.

now do that exercise with other teams. You will find it is a huge challenge to find a fit.

I agree with all of this and would add that if one of the reasons that they're expected to waive is to get a top 6 spot, if they all refuse to waive and Tampa trades Cirelli there is a top 6 spot available on Tampa. If I can see that you can bet they, their family and their agent see that too.

 

[HoseEmDown]

I agree with all of this and would add that if one of the reasons that they're expected to waive is to get a top 6 spot, if they all refuse to waive and Tampa trades Cirelli there is a top 6 spot available on Tampa. If I can see that you can bet they, their family and their agent see that too.

Gourde isn't getting a top 6 spot. Cooper likes him too much in the bottom 6 as he's defensive responsible and can provide offense down there. Johnson is already in the top 6 but is off the 1st PP and is the one who gets his shifts shortened to get the bigger guns more ice time. Johnson can hold out this ysar all he wants but his NTC becomes modified next year and with the expansion draft and being a Washington native is ripe to be selected by Seattle. His time in Tampa might not be up yet but it's getting towards the end. Gourde most likely has just two seasons max left but he could very well be a Seattle pick if we entice them enough to take him. So if those guys can find a team they want to go to now it might be best to leave now or be traded to wherever Tampa wants in a year or two.

 

[Halla]

Would have no problem giving him a 5-6 year deal just under $4,227 million then.

the lightning easily match and just move johnson/gourde/killorn. He isnt getting lost for a 2nd

its gonna take 6mil for them to not match IMHO. to steep to pay and a 1st and 3rd is a decent enough return.

 

[Halla]

just for fun

Habs 6 x 5.75

lightning would have a hard time matching and may just take the 1st ans 3rd.

 

[Flyer lurker]

just for fun

Habs 6 x 5.75


lightning would have a hard time matching and may just take the 1st ans 3rd.

Question why would Cirelli sign this?

1) If I sign an offer sheet I go 4 years max and want free agency. Cirelli 5.5m first 2 years of free agency is a stone bargain.

2)Say TB were to go to as high as 4-4.5 on a bridge and promise wink wink to pay 6.5-7 a year 2 years from now. With the state tax breaks major CAD taxes and probably only being paid on a 70 game schedule and prorated salary he wouldn't be losing any cash.

 

[Flyer lurker]

Here's the thing. If Colorado offers Cirelli 6-6.2m for 4-5 years I get that. Colorado and TBL both in top 5 to win a cup. Being no 2 c behind Mckinnon, less pressure can win multiple Selke's I get what Cirelli would want that. Why 5.5m at MTL? What does he accomplish?

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Double offer sheet compensation....

Cernak 2 x 4.227M (Back loaded with highest possible QO, compensation is only a 2nd round pick)
Cirelli 3 x 6.341M (Back loaded with highest possible QO, compensation is only a 1st round pick and a 3rd round pick)

Tampa would be unable to match both. They could match one if they aren't keeping Sergachev. This would be the rare situation where a team could execute a double offer sheet in order to try and make it more likely that they can steal a player. Best case scenario they steal both, worst (realistic) case scenario, they steal one because there is no realistic way they can manage the cap to accomodate both (except for don't worry all our players we don't want will waive their NTCs and everybody will trade for Gourde and his big cap hit!).

It will never come to that, because Tampa would not expose themselves to that risk. If they feel they are at risk of an offer sheet for any player, they would deal that player before free agency opens up.

 

[Picklepete]

love this guy and is a player im hoping yzerman trades for . maybe our early 2nd+ and glendennying to replace him for the next 2 seasons

Not a chance in hell !