Dvorak was one of the guys I looked at in terms of age, position, and just really basic stats for contract comps. Larkin and Schmaltz seem to be in that ballpark, but the comparisons start breaking down when you look at things like TOI and probably more when you look at the stats I don't know anything about.
Speculation: Anthony Cirelli offer sheet
- Thread starter Necrobutcher
- Start date
Tampa is up against the cap, no way they can sign their RFAs, trade them before someone offersheets.
When have I heard that before?
Seems like every year.
When have I heard that before?
Seems like every year.
DistantThunderRep
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Legit, it's the common story every year since the first Stammergeddon. We will lose a couple of depth players we have had for years but we will most likely keep the RFA's.
That’s true, but this year we are actually going to be in a tough spot. Not to say we can’t get out of it, but we’re going to need some help from our players. We got lucky with Killorn having a fantastic season (which took him from somebody we’d likely have to pay to move to somebody who might actually bring a decent return) and Cernak having a rough start to his (which should bring down his price considerably), but it’s still going to be very tight barring someone like Gourde waiving for a trade.
DistantThunderRep
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Ideally if Gourde or Johnson waived, that should open up enough to get all three signed. Tricky part would be rounding out the roster. We would still need to offload all of Coburn, and resign our Apostle, Jan Rutta.
Lord Stan 2020
Elite fan
whoever asked this question for another lightning player why does anyone believe anyone in tampa would take an offer sheet in first place??? just my questioning of it cirelli loves it here with this team I dont see him having any interest in another team or an offer sheet my two cents
you might have better luck with sergachev if he wasnt great buds with kucherov and vasy.... but he wants to stay too.... im sure someone will push the envelope but honestly we kinda know whom those guys are and move them out
see drouin deangelo etc...
you might have better luck with sergachev if he wasnt great buds with kucherov and vasy.... but he wants to stay too.... im sure someone will push the envelope but honestly we kinda know whom those guys are and move them out
see drouin deangelo etc...
Necrobutcher
Registered User
Avs call his agent and put an offer sheet in front of Cirelli at $6.75MM. 3 year deal. Same contract Brayden Point signed. Yes it's an overpay, but it puts Tampa in a terrible spot. The Avs have zero truly bad contacts so they can afford a bit of an overpay for a defensive forward trending to elite status is this category. He can proxy the Ryan O'Rielly that got away.
Maybe Tampa will match, maybe they don't. Avs have no problem losing their 2021 1st 2nd and 3rd when it looks like those picks transfer at ~30, ~62 and ~94 at the 2021 draft if Tampa can't match. Would be harder for a lottery team to make this offer knowing they lose more valuable picks in 2021 than the Avs would send.
Tampa kills the draft so they can maybe replace him with the picks.
Would I trade 3 picks, the highest being a late first rounder for Cirelli? F yeah I would. Or spend the same money on Dadonov or more on T Hall? Cirelli should be the Avs #1, # 1b, #1c target this summer.
Maybe Tampa will match, maybe they don't. Avs have no problem losing their 2021 1st 2nd and 3rd when it looks like those picks transfer at ~30, ~62 and ~94 at the 2021 draft if Tampa can't match. Would be harder for a lottery team to make this offer knowing they lose more valuable picks in 2021 than the Avs would send.
Tampa kills the draft so they can maybe replace him with the picks.
Would I trade 3 picks, the highest being a late first rounder for Cirelli? F yeah I would. Or spend the same money on Dadonov or more on T Hall? Cirelli should be the Avs #1, # 1b, #1c target this summer.
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Aladyyn
they praying for the death of a rockstar
#7 pick is on the table if Tampa wants to avoid an offer sheet
It will be interesting to see which of the rights to Cirelli or Serg Tampa trades this off-season. If they could fetch the 7th overall pick for Cirelli, you figure they could fetch something similar for Serg. Versus the prospect either signs an offer sheet, particularly from a team like the Avs or even Winnipeg, they'd be crazy not to explore trading one instead.
The same reason RFAs want to stay in Tampa (it's one of the best situtations in the NHL) is the exact same reason why guys like Gourde or Johnson wouldn't waive to leave it. In fact, the guys with full NTC have many many many more reasons not to waive their NTC than Cirelli would to not sign an offer sheet that would pay him considerably more to play elsewhere.
You have to figure several GMs will probe Cirelli and Serg's agents. Put some big AAVs in front of them to pit these two player's loyalty/comfort against their bank account/financial well being.
My prediction, Tampa trades the one between Cirelli or Serg that leans further towards the latter part of the above equation. Either one would fetch a very nice return to restock Tampa's farm system.
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Artorius Horus T
sincerety
Would be huge blow if they'd lose him. Like so many here, i've too liked him a lot ever since his junior career.
I was especially mesmerized how well he played in the 2017 OHL play-offs, a beast.
I was especially mesmerized how well he played in the 2017 OHL play-offs, a beast.
If Cirelli is like Point and will buy in on a bridge deal, Tampa will figure it out.
If not, teams will be lining up at 1st + 3rd compensation and maybe 1st + 2nd + 3rd compensation.
Tampa has created a good culture of getting folks to take less to build a winner. That doesn't mean every single player will buy in forever. Cirelli probably will, but Tampa fans are probably cockier than they should be on the subject.
If not, teams will be lining up at 1st + 3rd compensation and maybe 1st + 2nd + 3rd compensation.
Tampa has created a good culture of getting folks to take less to build a winner. That doesn't mean every single player will buy in forever. Cirelli probably will, but Tampa fans are probably cockier than they should be on the subject.
For shits and giggles, if it came down to giving Cirelli or Serg, who would Tampa prioritize? Both of these guys will be behind better players (Point/Hedman) for the foreseeable future, so its not super clear to me which Tampa would choose.
The less expensive one to resign is who they should and probably would choose. You have to think Serg brings back more in a trade than Cirelli, though I could be wrong on that. Trading either's rights would fetch a significant return.
The organization is pretty bad at drafting and developing defensemen relative to forwards and we're already pretty center-rich. I'd keep Sergachev over Cirelli.
Basically, TB needs both Sergachev and Cirelli (and their agents) to be willing to sign bridge deals well below market value in the context of considerable financial uncertainty surrounding the NHL. If one of the two holds out for a market value deal and explores offer sheets with other teams, TB might be pressured into making a trade that secures their value in terms of short term team needs, since they are Cup contenders. The prospect of having to match a hefty offer sheet or lose a player for future picks is unappealing. My guess is that if they can't get one or both players to agree to below market bridge deals before free agency opens up, they'll look to trade one of them for a package that would allow them to fill the roster gap in the near term, along with some futures.
LightningStrikes
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Not below market value. Below what they could get on offer sheet. Big difference.
Sanheim 2year at 3.25m as example so Serg raise is 4.5-5m
Domi was 2 year bridge at 3.15 so Cirelli 4m per at 2 years.
Everyone knows Tampa wants to keep both. Of course they do, both are core players and young. But Tampa doesn't have a lot of options. Tampa controls very few options this off-season. Tampa conceded control to most of their players giving them full NTCs.
The entire point of this discussion is that other teams don't think Tampa will be able to match another team's offer sheet on one or both if the OS is significantly above what Tampa will want to bridge them for.
The only realistic and Tampa controlled trades Tampa can make this off-season are Cernak and Killorn (unless they'd trade someone like Kucherov). If they trade those two for futures or guys on ELCs, it doesn't free up all that much cap space. All it does is free up about $3.6MM on Killorn and you don't need to give a raise to Cernak.
If Tampa offers Cirelli a 2 year deal at $3.75MM and the Avs offer him a 3 year deal at $6.3MM, he and his agent will debate how much money he'd leave on the table to remain in Tampa. And if Tampa goes up to $4.2MM, the Avs can go up the same amount too. Maybe Cirelli does leave $5MM on the table over two years, but given he's coming off an ELC under $1MM per year, it is worth tempting him with a big offer well beyond where Tampa will pencil him in at.
Tampa has a lot of confident fans that believe it's more likely to get a guy like Gourde to waive a full NTC and leave Tampa to a much worse situation and making less money than it would be for a Cirelli to say, "yes, I'd like to get paid a few million more per year and would be happy doing so on "that" team. You and I both know that is the overly convenient and wishful thinking of children. In real life, dollars do talk in professional sports and guys with full NTCs put them into their contracts with a specific purpose.
Cirelli or Serg considering offer sheets where they make significantly more money to play NHL hockey is a far more likely scenario than someone like Tyler Johnson waives his full NTC. Maybe the NHL throws teams a lifeline and does a compliance buyout option and if so, Tampa probably buys out Gourde and spreads his money over Cirelli and Serg and keeps both. Otherwise, Tampa could be at least $+5MM short of cap space to compete with some of the offer sheets their two stud RFAs are likely to be offered this off-season. And if the Avs hit Cirelli with a OS at $6.6MM AAV for 3 years... what does Tampa do? If the Habs or Winnipeg hit Serg with an OS at $6.9MM AAV, what does Tampa do? Beyond begging current players with NTCs to get the F off a cup contender roster and agree to go to a crappier team in the middle of covid-19, they don't have many good options. Trading the RFA rights to Serg is an option. So is trading the rights to Cirelli. Those may be the most realistic in terms of giving Tampa a package good enough to avoid losing them to offer sheets.
I love how it's ridiculous to assume Johnson or Gourde would waive to leave a Cup contender, a tax free state and a beautiful weather city. But it's totally expected that Sergachev and Cirelli will leave that to sign an offersheet with a team that doesn't provide that.
LightningStrikes
Champa Bay Lightning
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I hope you see the flaw in your rhetoric saying Johnson or whoever would never waive their NTC to leave the sunny cup contender Tampa but Sergachev will gladly go to Winnipeg the minute he gets an offer when he's going fishing and boating and partying and working out beachside with his good pals Kuch and Vasi while playing for said sunny cup contender.
Tampa has a track record of RFAs taking a conservative bridge deal after the team has freed up cap room accordingly. The one recent offer sheet to one of our RFAs that went public was to Point, who declined in heartbeat praising the Lightning org, the team, the city and its community. Tampa also has a track record of players taking less compared to market value in order to stay (Hedman, Stamkos, Kucherov - to name just the big fishes). Every season people like you proclaim that we'll lose a big name player or an up and rising youngster due to our cap situation and the Lightning have always made it work. They even added more pieces later in each season to further improve the team. I know it makes for good drama and all but you're probably going to get disappointed.
The list of GMs willing to put up an OS big enough to maybe entice Serg or Cirelli is short, even more so after COVID-19. It's not really well received among the league, success rates aren't exactly high, the price on the other hand is really high and in the end it all depends on the sought after player to actually agree. And whether that happens is even more unpredictable: On himself, his partner, his family, their friends and relationship to teammates, the organization, the city and its community, their hobbies, properties, affilition and preferences (wheather, life style...)...
I get that the situation is tricky. To make it work for Serg, Cirelli, (Cernak) a lot of pieces have to be moved around, agreements with other players and teams have to be reached and I wouldn't want to switch places with Brisebois for sure. But I'm confident our management will explore all options, do their best and in the end we'll have one, likely two, maybe even all three of them on the team again next season. At what cost we will find out soon enough.
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They would choose to move Cernak pay 1-1.5m vet like BOGO or Ceci or someone like that, and their depth would be lousy.
It takes Serge 8m offer sheet and Cirelli 6m offer sheet for TBL to lose one of them.
Just a friendly reminder there has only been 1 offer in last 6 years.
malcb33
Registered User
I think what you are saying certainly gets overlooked.
I do see it as Johnson, Gourde, etc. have their contract locked in, so financially they aren't getting a raise from moving to another team (except endorsements of course) however, they will be paying more tax, dealing with winter and not competing for a cup, if they waive.
Although Sergachev and Cirelli would also be giving up the same, they would be paid to do so if offer sheeted. In Sergachev's case he could also be handed premium playing time (1st pair).
Few things. It's obvious of the 3 RFA's Cernak would be the odd man out, but I'm honestly not sure how much that really saves them. I don't know how you've come to the conclusion that the only way they lose one of Cirelli or Sergachev is if they both sign offersheets. Or how 14 million between the 2 of them is the breaking point. There's way too many variables to say that. I think they'll move Killorn and that's a start, but after that I dont think it's impossible they wiggle out of Johnson or Gourde, but it'll be very difficult. As for offersheets we really don't know the frequency at which they occur (in all likelihood they probably are very infrequent), because it usually requires that the player sign it for it to get out to the media and fans. As someone else said Point was allegedly offersheeted, but he had no interest in signing it. Those things may occur a bit more often than we as fans are aware of.
I look at it like this. These guys signed a contract with TB and took less money because they wanted to be on a competitive team. As a result they wanted NMC/NTC which they were given. It isn't impossible that these guys might ok a trade, but if you had control over your job and had a great situation and management asked you to take a pay cut, move out of state, and go to an overall less desirable location, you'd probably just decline.
As for Cirelli and Sergachev you're bang on. The motivation to sign an offersheet is money, and ultimately they might not even have to leave TB if the team matches the offersheet. If not, they know at the very least they can make millions more earlier in their career playing somewhere else. That's not the end all be all for some, but it's a big factor for a lot of athletes.
