Player Discussion Anders Nilsson (G)

Discussion in 'Ottawa Senators' started by Variable26, Jan 5, 2019.

  1. JD1

    JD1 Registered User

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    Since Jan 1 5 on 5 save percentage

    Andy 881
    Nilsson 934
    Hogberg 957

    Our recent 5 game skid featured 4 andy losses and his 881 save percentage.

    He just hadn't been good enough for a year and a half.

    I hope we see Nilsson on Tuesday.

    And i hope we see a Nilsson Hogberg duo next year
     
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  2. coladin

    coladin Registered User

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    I like him. Really nice guy too. I spoke with him last night at the Sens Soiree, and I didn't realize he has three kids under the age of 5. A funny , charming guy. Gigantic in person!
     
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  3. Boud

    Boud Registered User

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    I entirely dissagree with your first point to be honest, some teams are desperate for goaltending (Blues, Philly) and will wildly overpay for guys who played well towards the end of their contracts. It's not because another team makes a mistake that it sets the price for a player. It's not because a player receives offers of a certain value that he's worth that contract. There are contracts signed every year that make you go that's a mistake (Lucic, Alzner to name a few) and it's not because a team is willing to make that mistake that we should do the same.

    I mean it would not be the first time a goalie gets a contract that's way over his capabilities based on a good stretch of games. We've seen a ton of it and goalies are a crapshot. You could sign a goalie long term based on short term success and it could work (Dubnyk, Jones and Raanta come to mind) but there are a million examples of the opposite (Condon, Talbot, Allen, Darling).

    If we trade Anderson, and I think we should, I would give him 2 years but not more than that. We've made mistakes and we should learn from them with Condon. Only fools make the same mistakes over and over again. Honestly if you look at how Nilsson played when he first got here, his positioning was bad and I guess he was probably still adjusting to Ottawa. The guy is on a hot streak right now but let's not assume that's the way he'll play over the next few years. Nothing suggests he could keep this up.
     
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  4. Ice-Tray

    Ice-Tray Registered User

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    Ah ok I see what you mean. Like we shouldn’t look to outbid a team looking to over pay for him.

    I also agree that 2 years would be optimum in that we’ll want a show me contract, but several teams would offer multiple years so we’d have to do two to keep him. We obviously have the inside track and are able to negotiate before other teams can talk to him so two off the bat would be best I think.

    If we keep Andy then it clouds things a bit.
     
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  5. danielpalfredsson

    danielpalfredsson wishes he thought of 'pete dorito' first

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    If he keeps playing like this, he'll get something in the 2-3 year 2.5-3.5 million range on the open market with a distant chance that he gets an actual starting goalie contract similar to Koskinen's. It's a really soft goalie market.

    If we trade Anderson, we'll have to gamble on a UFA goalie regardless. Better to gamble on a guy we've seen succeed in small sample size in our system already than to gamble on someone like a Reimer (after a buyout) or a Mrazek.

    For reference, here is the upcoming UFA goalie market. Keep in mind, there is a reasonably high chance that all the good options here are off the market by July 1st and won't be available to us.

    [​IMG]

    Lehner, Miller, Howard, and Bobrovsky aren't likely to come here, let alone be available. Lehner probably gets extended, Miller apparently wants to stay in California, I don't even have to explain Bobrovsky, and Howard will be in extremely high demand due to the lack of options for teams who need starters.

    Varlamov, Elliott, and Talbot are probably the closest things to realistic alternatives to Nilsson that we might actually be able to sign. Elliott has been inconsistent the last few years, and Talbot has been awful (Although, awful in Edmonton might not count for a goalie...). Varlamov and Talbot will not be cheaper or come on a shorter term than Nilsson and there's no guarantee that either will find coming to Ottawa appealing to play behind a suspect defense when they will be trying to revive their careers (More Talbot than Varlamov).

    That leaves us in a position where we can do exactly what we did with Nilsson, which would be try to identify a goalie who has been struggling else where who might do well with a fresh start and change of scenery, or whose game our goalie coaches think we can adjust to their benefit. If we find that goalie, all we're doing is kicking the can down the road another year before we're in best case scenario we're in the exact same situation we find ourselves in with Nilsson, where a goalie has done well for us over one season and we now either have to sign them to a 2-3 year contract based on a smaller sample size, or abandon that goalie.

    Unless we're intent on holding on to Anderson for one year and re-assessing things completely in July 2020, the path of least resistance would be to lock up Anders Nilsson.
     
  6. Tyler Durden

    Tyler Durden Registered User

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    Do you guys think Nilsson starts most of the games this week? Schedule looks like: CAR, DET, WPG
     
  7. JD1

    JD1 Registered User

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    We can only hope.

    The problem is if we have any chabce of moving Andy he needs to play some
     
  8. Erik Alfredsson

    Erik Alfredsson Beast Mode Cowboy!

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    Sign this guy to 2-3 years. We need a goalie, Anderson is almost done. If we sign him and he sucks next year, great, good for the tank. If he's good, then we found our goalie for the future.
     
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  9. pt_mck

    pt_mck Registered User

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    As loyal as he has been, Anderson needs to be bought out. Nilsson should be resigned. But only a smart organization would do that not the Sens.
     
  10. FolignoQuantumLeap

    FolignoQuantumLeap Its a trap

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    That might be a possibility actually. He's a 35+ contract so they'd save some money while also keeping his cap hit, giving them more mobility to spend below the cap floor. Hopefully they can find a suitor for him on another team and just retain.

    Only problem is Condon needs to be bought out too. I have a hard time seeing us buy out two players in one offseason.
     
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  11. Larionov

    Larionov Registered User

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    Anderson is approaching his 38th birthday, struggling, injury prone, and still owed another year at over 4 million. He is completely, 100% untradeable. The best option on both Anderson and Condon in late June is to bite the bullet and buy out their final year.
     
  12. Sensmileletsgo

    Sensmileletsgo Registered User

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    What’s the benefit of buying out Anderson instead of just keeping him next year on what we’ll likely be a lost season?
    Is it to get Hogberg in a back up role or to find room for Daccord?
     
  13. Sensmileletsgo

    Sensmileletsgo Registered User

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    Lots of pictures of him on Sens social media today with Dorion and Boro. I sense an extension at some point...
     
  14. Vprime

    Vprime Registered User

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    When you think about it, when is the last season we had real success with Andy?

    Last 2 season we went to the playoff, it was on the back of the Hamburglar and Condon who came has a "savior" while Andy was injured again.

    I'm not saying Niilson is a #1G nor should we believe he is a long term solution. But going with him and let's say Hogberg next season would not be the end of the world.

    It's like the players of this team like to rally behind back up goalie.
     
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  15. Sens of Anarchy

    Sens of Anarchy Registered User

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    It is what it is
     
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  16. Gesus

    Gesus Melnyk eats babies

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    We need to tank next year imo, so keeping Andy and Condon while letting Nilsson go for next year might be our best play.

    If we ignore trying to tank, I expect one of Andy or Condon bought out this summer and Nilsson re-signed if reasonable. Andy dealt if possible, but I suspect they've had no takers.
     
  17. stempniaksen

    stempniaksen Registered User

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    This guy has been great, credit where credit is due.

    Andy is either toast, or has given up on the team. I'm not sure which it is, but it's pretty clear this guy can't be our only serious option in nets next year.

    I'd like to see Nilsson re-signed, as long as we can keep the term low (throw extra money at him if needed, especially if the UFA's are moved). Whether the backup is Anderson, Condon or Hogberg it's pretty clear this guy is the best goalie in the organization right now.
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2019 at 10:49 AM
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  18. burf

    burf Registered User

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    Anderson's received less help from the team than Nilsson has, but he's also been, by far, one of the worst goalies in the league this year. After his performance the last 2 years, he should be considered a backup at best.

    By comparison, Nilsson has been a perfectly average starter, and if he can keep this up, the Sens should see if they can lock him down for a couple years on a reasonable (~3m AAV) deal while the kids in the minors get more seasoning.

    By way of reference:



     
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  19. Alf Silfversson

    Alf Silfversson Registered User

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    But what about maybe getting a 6th round pick for Nilsson? You can never have enough 6th rounders. :sarcasm:
     
  20. Smeddy

    Smeddy Intangibles

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    Thanks for that, very interesting. I'd be fine extending Nillson, but I think anything longer than one year would be a mistake. He's been inconsistent for a long time, we shouldn't hand out multi year contracts because of a good month. We've learnt that the hard way twice now.

    I'll always love Anderson but if we're able to move him we really should. I'd rather roll with Nillson/Hogberg next year and keep some spots open for our goalie prospects. Anderson should be traded and Condon bought out this summer.
     
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  21. Cosmix

    Cosmix Registered User

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    Nor 4th liners.
     
  22. Beville

    Beville #ForTheBoys

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    Sign him to a 2 year deal if we must but...

    Please don’t end up shafting us like Hammond or Condon.

    Trading Andy could be a blessing for Nilsson, gives him the #1 for the last 20+ games and we can really see what he’s about.
     
  23. InAbsensia

    InAbsensia OMG Boro is going to be our captain isn't he?

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    Trade Andy and go with Nilsson + backup next year. Gotta be a vet available to help out, if not run with Condo.
    It's time this team cut the cord with some declining vets, moving Smith and Andy would be a great start.
    (I know they won't move Andy, Dorion doesn't have the balls to do that, too nice. That's why we're bad.)
     
  24. JD1

    JD1 Registered User

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    Great charts. I've been saying for a couple of years now that we are not getting good enough goaltendung consistently enough to let us compete. The past year it seems 2 or 3 out of every 10 games the goaltendung gives us no chance leaving only 7 or 8 winnable games.

    Nilssin in his short stint has given us good enough goaltending to win in all but one start imo and we've been winning. Go figure.
     
  25. Day Man

    Day Man Fighter of the night man, champion of the sun

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    Next year is Andy's bad year he is another year older and it's the last year of an expiring contract let it play out get as much losses as possible and pray in the draft dont try to fix the team next year I swear to ****ing god
     

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