Player Discussion: Anders Lee

[doublechili]

Yes, but there are plenty guys like Hornqvist. Lee is a commodity because there are not many comparables. We can look at paper and count points, but to be successful you need to have different kinds of complimentary players on the team, Anders possesses a skill set that few have , but compliments a skillset (playmaker) t every team in the league does have.

Basically what i'm saying is Lee is the last piece of the puzzle for many clubs, thats where the value comes.

I agree and think some tend to underrate Lee because we have him. Guys that are 6'3" 230lbs (or whatever he is) with great goal-scoring hands and presence in front and along the walls do not grow on trees. You almost have to list historical guys when you look for comparables (Andreychuk, Tim Kerr, etc.). If we didn't have him, we'd be complaining about all the playmakers we have but no big guys who can finish.

 

[Le Grec]

You're probably right about him not deserving much more than Bailey. But that's not how agreements are reached. The fact of the matter is that Lee has the Islanders over a barrel. They don't have a choice really. They need to sign the guy come hell or high water. They can't afford to have another Captain take off. Plus, the guy scored 40 goals last year. That doesn't happen by accident. He knows how to put the puck in the net.

He's getting $35m minimum. Probably more like $40m or more. It just depends how many years and how its structured. He probably wants 7 and the team wants 5. It will probably be 6 or 7 at the end of the day (I doubt he'll settle for 5). So what will it ultimately be? Probably an AAV between $6.5 - $7m. 6 years/$40m is palatable for everyone I think. Evander Kane's deal is probably screwing the Islanders though. That may push it higher.

Lee did score 40 goals last year, but this year he's on pace for 25% less. So while I do agree that he knows how to score, Lou would be nuts to base a deal off last season as opposed to this season.
And for the record, if we can lose JT and be ok, we can sure as hell lose Lee...not that I want him to leave, just saying...

 

[YearlyLottery]

Lee did score 40 goals last year, but this year he's on pace for 25% less. So while I do agree that he knows how to score, Lou would be nuts to base a deal off last season as opposed to this season.
And for the record, if we can lose JT and be ok, we can sure as hell lose Lee...not that I want him to leave, just saying...

But can we lose JT and Lee? I would rather not continuously lose top six forwards who can and should be resigned though. I am not the biggest Lee fan on here, but for 6-7 per year I would not fight it.

 

[GrandmaSlices51631]

Lee did score 40 goals last year, but this year he's on pace for 25% less. So while I do agree that he knows how to score, Lou would be nuts to base a deal off last season as opposed to this season.
And for the record, if we can lose JT and be ok, we can sure as hell lose Lee...not that I want him to leave, just saying...

Lou would be nuts to base a deal of either season in a vacuum. I look at his career - and he's put the puck in the net at every level, from College to the AHL to the NHL. I don't believe Lee is a perennial 40 goal scorer, but I do believe he is a perennial 30 goal scorer, 25% less but to be able to pencil a guy in for 30G's a year is a big box to check when your building a competitive team.

 

[crasherino]

Lee did score 40 goals last year, but this year he's on pace for 25% less. So while I do agree that he knows how to score, Lou would be nuts to base a deal off last season as opposed to this season.
And for the record, if we can lose JT and be ok, we can sure as hell lose Lee...not that I want him to leave, just saying...

He's on pace for exactly the same number of points without playing with JT. And while he was -25 last year, he's +11. We can debate what +/- is ultimately worth, but this year is much better than last year. He plays tough defensive minutes - getting double shifted at the ends of games and he was the hands down choice to be Captain based on what Trotz saw in the locker room, not a predetermined decision.

Yes, its possible for the team not to sign him and still survive. However, that's a huge loss....from a number of perspectives. The players saw that the team did all they could to sign PJB. He spurned them - what are you gonna do? But if they cheap out on signing their captain? That doesn't play well in the locker room. Plus, who are you going to sign in his stead? We can throw all the money in the world to Panarin and Duchene and they may decide to go elsewhere (we'll do that even if we sign Lee).

Lee will demand what's appropriate to him. He's not going to be unreasonable. But, he's not going to be charitable either. He may leave a buck or two on the table....but that's about it. JVR and Kane got $7m AAV. That's his target, mas o menos. The term is the variable. Kane is a year younger - he got 7 years. JVR is a year older - he got 5 years. Sounds like 6 years works in this case.

You don't want to pay that? Me neither, TBH. But that's what its gonna take. Be prepared for it.

 

[GrandmaSlices51631]

He's on pace for exactly the same number of points without playing with JT. And while he was -25 last year, he's +11. We can debate what +/- is ultimately worth, but this year is much better than last year. He plays tough defensive minutes - getting double shifted at the ends of games and he was the hands down choice to be Captain based on what Trotz saw in the locker room, not a predetermined decision.

Yes, its possible for the team not to sign him and still survive. However, that's a huge loss....from a number of perspectives. The players saw that the team did all they could to sign PJB. He spurned them - what are you gonna do? But if they cheap out on signing their captain? That doesn't play well in the locker room. Plus, who are you going to sign in his stead? We can throw all the money in the world to Panarin and Duchene and they may decide to go elsewhere (we'll do that even if we sign Lee).

Lee will demand what's appropriate to him. He's not going to be unreasonable. But, he's not going to be charitable either. He may leave a buck or two on the table....but that's about it. JVR and Kane got $7m AAV. That's his target, mas o menos. The term is the variable.

You don't want to pay that? Me neither, TBH. But that's what its gonna take. Be prepared for it.

Nail on the head. Those really are the comparables I was drawing Blanks and thinking of Simmonds but the standard has been set at 7 Minimum - Plus the intangibles, Evander Kane is not leading a locker room.

 

[Islanders4Cups]

Lee did score 40 goals last year, but this year he's on pace for 25% less. So while I do agree that he knows how to score, Lou would be nuts to base a deal off last season as opposed to this season.
And for the record, if we can lose JT and be ok, we can sure as hell lose Lee...not that I want him to leave, just saying...

The whole team is producing less on offensive but so much more defensively and in transition. Do not take that for granted. Weights system assumed or forgot about the forwards being responsible in their own zone.

I usually don’t hang my hat on +/- but when you go from -25 to +11 so far you take notice. Others are quick to say JT was the reason for that, but look at JTs +/-

Lee should be an all star this season and is looking like a very good captain.

 

[Le Grec]

But can we lose JT and Lee? I would rather not continuously lose top six forwards who can and should be resigned though. I am not the biggest Lee fan on here, but for 6-7 per year I would not fight it.

The 6-7per I can live with, not the 7-8 years.
Honestly, I think Lee signs a reasonable deal that makes him, Lou, and the fans happy...

 

[Le Grec]

Lou would be nuts to base a deal of either season in a vacuum. I look at his career - and he's put the puck in the net at every level, from College to the AHL to the NHL. I don't believe Lee is a perennial 40 goal scorer, but I do believe he is a perennial 30 goal scorer, 25% less but to be able to pencil a guy in for 30G's a year is a big box to check when your building a competitive team.

Agree, that's why I used Hornqvist as a comparable.

 

[Le Grec]

Nail on the head. Those really are the comparables I was drawing Blanks and thinking of Simmonds but the standard has been set at 7 Minimum - Plus the intangibles, Evander Kane is not leading a locker room.

I'm not saying this to have an argument, just curious...
Why are those guys, who have helped their team accomplish f***-all, comparable, but Hornqvist isn't?

 

[ndgolden]

The whole team is producing less on offensive but so much more defensively and in transition. Do not take that for granted. Weights system assumed or forgot about the forwards being responsible in their own zone.

I usually don’t hang my hat on +/- but when you go from -25 to +11 so far you take notice. Others are quick to say JT was the reason for that, but look at JTs +/-

Prior to Trotts Ovi would score 50 every year but end up a -35 to -50! Trott's came in and converted Ovi's game to a legitimate + player without effecting his goal output.

 

[crasherino]

The 6-7per I can live with, not the 7-8 years.
Honestly, I think Lee signs a reasonable deal that makes him, Lou, and the fans happy...

How about 6 years? I'm guessing the fight over 6 and 7 years is what's holding up the deal.

Agree, that's why I used Hornqvist as a comparable.

Hornqvist signed his extension at 31. Lee would be 28 if he signs an extension now. And Hornqvist has never hit 30 goals. Lee's hit 30 and 40 in back to back years without being on PP with the two best players in the world. His stats may come back down a bit w/o tavares, but imagine what PH drop to without Sid.

 

[Le Grec]

The whole team is producing less on offensive but so much more defensively and in transition. Do not take that for granted. Weights system assumed or forgot about the forwards being responsible in their own zone.

I usually don’t hang my hat on +/- but when you go from -25 to +11 so far you take notice. Others are quick to say JT was the reason for that, but look at JTs +/-

Lee should be an all star this season and is looking like a very good captain.

For the record, I never brought up +-, I'm bringing up the fact that the only regular who I don't want to see 4on4, or in OT, or in the shootout, or on the PK, other than Lee, is Martin.
Think about that...

 

[Quickdraw2828]

6 yrs 45 should do it

 

[crasherino]

Just my take....I'd say to Anders - the numbers are 6 and 7. You decide which is the term and which is the AAV. And then lets lock this bitch up.

 

[ndgolden]

He's on pace for exactly the same number of points without playing with JT. And while he was -25 last year, he's +11. We can debate what +/- is ultimately worth, but this year is much better than last year. He plays tough defensive minutes - getting double shifted at the ends of games and he was the hands down choice to be Captain based on what Trotz saw in the locker room, not a predetermined decision.

Yes, its possible for the team not to sign him and still survive. However, that's a huge loss....from a number of perspectives. The players saw that the team did all they could to sign PJB. He spurned them - what are you gonna do? But if they cheap out on signing their captain? That doesn't play well in the locker room. Plus, who are you going to sign in his stead? We can throw all the money in the world to Panarin and Duchene and they may decide to go elsewhere (we'll do that even if we sign Lee).

Lee will demand what's appropriate to him. He's not going to be unreasonable. But, he's not going to be charitable either. He may leave a buck or two on the table....but that's about it. JVR and Kane got $7m AAV. That's his target, mas o menos. The term is the variable. Kane is a year younger - he got 7 years. JVR is a year older - he got 5 years. Sounds like 6 years works in this case.

You don't want to pay that? Me neither, TBH. But that's what its gonna take. Be prepared for it.

I think all fans will be in for a salary shock this UFA season, Duchene, Panarin, Stone will all be looking at contracts starting in the 9+ range. Within 4-5 years players who score 15-20 goals a year will be making 6-7 million. Brock is probably seeking that now.

 

[crasherino]

For the record, I never brought up +-, I'm bringing up the fact that the only regular who I don't want to see 4on4, or in OT, or in the shootout, or on the PK, other than Lee, is Martin.
Think about that...

I think Anders would be a perfectly fine PKer - as is Martin. The others I would concede....although he may be fine in a shoot out, I wouldn't be opposed if he were the 4th or 5th option. But probably not in OT, I'll certainly concede that. 4 x 4? Not our first option either. But those situations aren't driving the bus. Trotz is rolling him out in the last 5 minutes when we're up by 1. He's double shifting him at times. He's responsible and strong. He may not be the fastest skater but he is as strong as an ox in the "dirty areas" (I can't explain - you'll have to ask Butchie).

 

[Le Grec]

How about 6 years? I'm guessing the fight over 6 and 7 years is what's holding up the deal.


Hornqvist signed his extension at 31. Lee would be 28 if he signs an extension now. And Hornqvist has never hit 30 goals. Lee's hit 30 and 40 in back to back years without being on PP with the two best players in the world. His stats may come back down a bit w/o tavares, but imagine what PH drop to without Sid.

6 years is my max offer...
Hornqvist has hit 30 once, but there are a couple of reasons he hasn't done it more often...
-he's got a slight injury issue
-he doesn't spend the bulk of his ice time waiting for others to create a play so he can pick up the scraps.

 

[crasherino]

I think all fans will be in for a Salary Shock this UFA season, Duchene, Panarin, Stone will all be looking at contracts starting in the 9+ range. Within 4-5 years players who score 15-20 goals a year will be making 5-6 million

I'll be surprised if Duchene and Panarin don't break $10m AAV. If Duchene said to the Islanders....give me 7yrs/$70m, the Islanders ask what color pen would he like to ink the deal.

 

[Le Grec]

I think Anders would be a perfectly fine PKer - as is Martin. The others I would concede....although he may be fine in a shoot out, I wouldn't be opposed if he were the 4th or 5th option. But probably not in OT, I'll certainly concede that. 4 x 4? Not our first option either. But those situations aren't driving the bus. Trotz is rolling him out in the last 5 minutes when we're up by 1. He's double shifting him at times. He's responsible and strong. He may not be the fastest skater but he is as strong as an ox in the "dirty areas" (I can't explain - you'll have to ask Butchie).

If Lee was a regular PKer, the Isles would have the worst PK in the league. He can be used on the 6on5 because there is less room and his big body becomes useful.
As for the shootout, he has no shot, no speed, and no moves.

Again, I love Lee for what he is, but let's not pretend he's anything more...

 

[ndgolden]

I think Anders would be a perfectly fine PKer - as is Martin. The others I would concede....although he may be fine in a shoot out, I wouldn't be opposed if he were the 4th or 5th option. But probably not in OT, I'll certainly concede that. 4 x 4? Not our first option either. But those situations aren't driving the bus. Trotz is rolling him out in the last 5 minutes when we're up by 1. He's double shifting him at times. He's responsible and strong. He may not be the fastest skater but he is as strong as an ox in the "dirty areas" (I can't explain - you'll have to ask Butchie).

And when this fan based gets really used to deep play-off runs, just remember how often do we go to shoot-outs or 3v3 in the play-offs..........

 

[Islanders4Cups]

Prior to Trotts Ovi would score 50 every year but end up a -35 to -50! Trott's came in and converted Ovi's game to a legitimate + player without effecting his goal output.

I did not say Lee is a HOFer like Ovi, just an all star. Not many of either going around these days.

 

[ndgolden]

If Lee was a regular PKer, the Isles would have the worst PK in the league. He can be used on the 6on5 because there is less room and his big body becomes useful.
As for the shootout, he has no shot, no speed, and no moves.

Again, I love Lee for what he is, but let's not pretend he's anything more...

He appears to be heavily trusted by Trotts late in games when the Isles are trying to close things out. But what the hell does Trotts know. I thought for sure he had the moves like Jagger......

 

[crasherino]

If Lee was a regular PKer, the Isles would have the worst PK in the league. He can be used on the 6on5 because there is less room and his big body becomes useful.
As for the shootout, he has no shot, no speed, and no moves.

Again, I love Lee for what he is, but let's not pretend he's anything more...

He'd be no worse than Martin - but your argument is irrelevant....we know he's not PK'ing. Nor do we want/need him to. We signed many a guy long term who can more than handle our PK. Barzal isn't killing penalties either.

So now we're back to him not being on in OT (and apparently "spending the bulk of his ice time waiting for others to create a play so he can pick up the scraps.")....

I don't think anyone's pretending he's something he's not (not even ndgolden and he has pictures of Anders shirtless in his bedroom)....we're just trying to put a number on what he's going to get. You stop the contract at 6 years. It would be great if that were so, but I'm not sure that will be the case. And while its not ideal, I'd rather have Anders at 7 years @ $6.5 AAV than letting him walk.

 

[ndgolden]

I did not say Lee is a HOFer like Ovi, just an all star. Not many of either going around these days.

Nor did I, LOL I was just relating some significant benefits Trotts can have on this team.