Analyzing Dubas's performance II - (Full Analysis)

[LeafChief]

So what?

Good luck with those KHL deals boys. We'll be over here with NHL contracts when you're ready to play.

I can pretty well guarentee with Lou, neither guy would have missed any time. Rielly and Kadri didn't miss any games.

Oh this is fun.

I can pretty well 'guarentee' that the Leafs would have won the cup if Bryan Berard didn't lose his eye.

Let's all make 'guarentees' on things that we can't prove.

 

[Leafs87]

Leafs just paid 60 million in signing bonuses two days ago. You better believe Dubas needs to see performance from this group

 

[LeafsNation75]

If you think Lou failed with Nylander, then you don't understand negotiation. Lou was using the power afforded to him, which was time. Dubas should have used that more effectively, instead he panicked and caved to a bad deal.

And the matthews deal was God awful. Surely you're not bragging about that deal?

You are forgetting that despite Lou not being able to get Nylander to sign an extension at that time, he still didn't miss any games because he was going into the 3rd and final year of his ELC. Plus Lou had all of the 2017-18 season to have Nylader sign an extension so they didn't have a December 1 deadline like Dubas did.

Also there was a report that Nylander wanted to sign the same type of contract Leon Draisaitl got which was 8 years and $8.5 million AAV. Would anyone been okay with Dubas giving him that amount of money since his career highs at that point was 22 goals and 61 points. The fact Dubas got Nylander to sign for 6 years and $6.96 million AAV looks a lot better.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Leafs just paid 90 million in signing bonuses two days ago. You better believe Dubas needs to see performance from this group

Seems high, more than the cap,
I have heard around 50 reported

 

[Leafs87]

Seems high, more than the cap,
I have heard around 50 reported

Nope. Signing bonuses were paid in full to all players July 1st.


Source: NHL won't defer on $300M in bonuses

 

[Golden_Jet]

Nope. Signing bonuses were paid in full to all players July 1st.


Source: NHL won't defer on $300M in bonuses

I said I had heard in 50’s not 90 million, so I clicked on your link, and it says 60 million, so why say 90 million

 

[Buds17]

You are forgetting that despite Lou not being able to get Nylander to sign an extension at that time, he still didn't miss any games because he was going into the 3rd and final year of his ELC. Plus Lou had all of the 2017-18 season to have Nylader sign an extension so they didn't have a December 1 deadline like Dubas did.

Also there was a report that Nylander wanted to sign the same type of contract Leon Draisaitl got which was 8 years and $8.5 million AAV. Would anyone been okay with Dubas giving him that amount of money since his career highs at that point was 22 goals and 61 points. The fact Dubas got Nylander to sign for 6 years and $6.96 million AAV looks a lot better.

Draisaitl's contract obviously looks much different based on his past two seasons, and really, that's the nice part about deals with that kind of term, at least from a management POV. Still, I don't think there's much difference between 8.5 x 8 and ~7 x 6, particularly when considering that Nylander signed after the season started.

I've definitely come around on Nylander's contract (I liked the term; felt the AAV was a bit high). I'm not sure comparing these two contracts puts the Nylander deal in the best light possible though.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Draisaitl's contract obviously looks much different based on his past two seasons, and really, that's the nice part about deals with that kind of term, at least from a management POV. Still, I don't think there's much difference between 8.5 x 8 and ~7 x 6, particularly when considering that Nylander signed after the season started.

I've definitely come around on Nylander's contract (I liked the term; felt the AAV was a bit high). I'm not sure comparing these two contracts puts the Nylander deal in the best light possible though.

I only brought up Draisaitl and his 8 year $8.5 million AAV contract because it was either said on TSN 1050 or Fan 590 that Nylander was using him as the best comparable during his contract negotiations.

Plus when Draisaitl signed that he was coming off scoring 29 goals, 48 assists and 77 points. Nylander 3rd and final year of his ELC saw him get 20 goals, 41 assists and 61 points.

 

[The CyNick]

So Lou would throw a season so he can save enough cap space to keep Marleau? Brilliant.

Rielly and Kadri weren't elite players when they got signed, signing a 45 point center for 4.5 isn't an accomplishment, it's market value.

Do you just forget that the last big deal Lou negotiated was so bad that he got fined for it?

No, he would have threatened to let them sit. They would evaluate their options and ultimately take Lou's offers. Just like Reilly and Kadri did, even though many people at the time thought they would either get more money or sign 3yr deals.

Who fired Lou?

 

[The CyNick]

Leafs just paid 90 million in signing bonuses two days ago. You better believe Dubas needs to see performance from this group

This is where Shanny will be in hot water. Especially now with the pandemic. Corporations are looking to cut costs, and here you have MLSE throwing crap loads of money over the boat and they have a bubble playoff team to show for it.

 

[The CyNick]

You are forgetting that despite Lou not being able to get Nylander to sign an extension at that time, he still didn't miss any games because he was going into the 3rd and final year of his ELC. Plus Lou had all of the 2017-18 season to have Nylader sign an extension so they didn't have a December 1 deadline like Dubas did.

Also there was a report that Nylander wanted to sign the same type of contract Leon Draisaitl got which was 8 years and $8.5 million AAV. Would anyone been okay with Dubas giving him that amount of money since his career highs at that point was 22 goals and 61 points. The fact Dubas got Nylander to sign for 6 years and $6.96 million AAV looks a lot better.

Nylander may have also wanted a private jet. Doesn't mean anyone in their right mind would give it to him. Every one of the big three deals were massive overpayments by Dubas. Only the most hardcore Dubas supporters dispute that statement.

 

[LeafsNation75]

No, he would have threatened to let them sit. They would evaluate their options and ultimately take Lou's offers. Just like Reilly and Kadri did, even though many people at the time thought they would either get more money or sign 3yr deals.

Who fired Lou?

When Kadri and Rielly signed their current contracts it was after Toronto finished last place overall in the 2015-16 season.

Kadri's stats was 17 goals, 28 assists, 45 points in 76 games played.

Rielly's stats was 9 goals, 27 assists, 36 points in 82 games played.

So what leverage did they have where they could demand more money the way Matthews, Marner, and Nylander got paid after being on teams who made the playoffs.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Nylander may have also wanted a private jet. Doesn't mean anyone in their right mind would give it to him. Every one of the big three deals were massive overpayments by Dubas. Only the most hardcore Dubas supporters dispute that statement.

Since Nylander is coming off scoring a new season high of 31 goals in 68 games played and finished 2 points behind his career high in points which he would have passed if the regular season was not suspended, you can no longer say he is overpaid at $6.96 milliion AAV.

 

[Menzinger]

That sounds made up.
Once he made it to UFA it seem pretty much accepted he would be coming here or re-upping in NY.

You wont find a single media report from any major journalist published prior to the signing that suggested that to be the case. I also dou t a reapected guy like JT would waste the time and money of sveral teams, havibg their management teams fly out to LA to pitch him for sveral hours each if his mind was already made up.

 

[The CyNick]

Since Nylander is coming off scoring a new season high of 31 goals in 68 games played and finished 2 points behind his career high in points which he would have passed if the regular season was not suspended, you can no longer say he is overpaid at $6.96 milliion AAV.

Of course you can. You have to look at what he should have been signed for when he's deal was up. You don't look at the high point of his career and say see I gave him fair market value.

A number in the 5s is what Nylander should have been signed for.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Of course you can. You have to look at what he should have been signed for when he's deal was up. You don't look at the high point of his career and say see I gave him fair market value.

A number in the 5s is what Nylander should have been signed for.

Nylander's best comparable players who signed before him is the following.

Dylan Larkin who got 5 years and $6.1 million AAV.

David Pastrnak who got 6 years and $6.66 million AAV.

Nikolaj Ehlers who got 7 years and $6 million AAV.

Just like Nylander they were also 2014 1st round draft picks, so that's obviously what Dubas was using in the contract negotiation.

 

[LeafsNation75]

You wont find a single media report from any major journalist published prior to the signing that suggested that to be the case. I also dou t a reapected guy like JT would waste the time and money of sveral teams, havibg their management teams fly out to LA to pitch him for sveral hours each if his mind was already made up.

Whenever there was a thread about Tavares on the National Hockey League Talk forums and they make that outrageous statement I have said the exact same thing. Why would Tavares even bother to also meet with San Jose, Boston, Tampa Bay, Dallas and the Islanders if he was planning this whole time to sign in Toronto?

 

[Morbo]

Nylander's deal was fair at the time and is starting to look like a bargain.

 

[Kiwi]

It was a good plan. Helped make the younger guys good pros on the ice. It's no coincidence that the summer they let him go Matthews is running around like a moron with his pants off. There was a lot of accountability removed from that room. The team has yet to recover from that.

If Lou was GM, the savings from the big three signings would have easily covered Marleau's final year. As was proven by the lack of heart in this team, his leadership was still required another year.

Yeah, leadership is nice and all but 6.5M for an over the hill vet who gets overused by his coach is about as useful as being kicked in the nuggets with a steel toed boot

Young men make mistakes, it also happened in the off-season so I'm going to go with a big no on that changing anything

Lou was a brain involved in that ridiculous signing in the first place, then went to Long Island and wasted cap room on overpriced vets but he did **** the bed in the first place so he should have had to lie in it when you think about it, he got off bloody lightly for that gross mismanagement

I think Dubas showed his lack of experience with those 3 RFA signings (which i expect he will learn from) but to think Lou could manage the cap better seems pretty fanciful looking at his body of work over the last decade +

 

[Menzinger]

Let me post this again about how much of a role Dubas played when they meet with Tavares prior to signing him, because this was idea going into the meeting.

How the Toronto Maple Leafs signed John Tavares - Sportsnet.ca

Yep. The suggestion that the guy, who led the pitch presentation that lasted sveral hours doesnt desrve credit for the eventual signing is beyond absurd lol.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Yep. The suggestion that the guy, who led the pitch presentation that lasted sveral hours doesnt desrve credit for the eventual signing is beyond absurd lol.

They just can't let go that Kyle Dubas ended up replacing Lou Lamoriello as the GM.

Plus when it was reported how Brendan Shanahan denied Colorado permission to speak with Dubas about a job with them, it was obvious that he was going to replace Lamoriello and Shanahan didn't want to lose him.

Maple Leafs GM Dubas talks time Shanahan blocked possible move to Avs - Sportsnet.ca

 

[Menzinger]

It was already made clear he wasn't coming back. The accountability was gone. And there's also an issue of how it was handled after the incident. I believe the old leadership group would have done a better job advising AM how to handle a dumb decision.

This is nothing but pure, misinformed speculation on your part. You've repeatedly gotten basic facts wrong and youre doubling down.

The fact is, Marleau was still part of the team, and by all accounts still in social contact with Matthews in the leadup to this incident. The implication that the mere speculation that Marleau might be moved caused Matthews to act the way he did is absurd.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Yeah, leadership is nice and all but 6.5M for an over the hill vet who gets overused by his coach is about as useful as being kicked in the nuggets with a steel toed boot

Young men make mistakes, it also happened in the off-season so I'm going to go with a big no on that changing anything

Lou was a brain involved in that ridiculous signing in the first place, then went to Long Island and wasted cap room on overpriced vets but he did **** the bed in the first place so he should have had to lie in it when you think about it, he got off bloody lightly for that gross mismanagement

I think Dubas showed his lack of experience with those 3 RFA signings (which i expect he will learn from) but to think Lou could manage the cap better seems pretty fanciful looking at his body of work over the last decade +

I said this before and I will say it again. Lou caved into Marleau when he agreed to give him 3 a years contract, when San Jose who he had played for 19 years at that time was only offering him a 2 year contract.

 

[Menzinger]

Nylander's best comparable players who signed before him is the following.

Dylan Larkin who got 5 years and $6.1 million AAV.

David Pastrnak who got 6 years and $6.66 million AAV.

Nikolaj Ehlers who got 7 years and $6 million AAV.

Just like Nylander they were also 2014 1st round draft picks, so that's obviously what Dubas was using in the contract negotiation.

The suggestion Nylander should have gotten an aav in the 5s is not grounded in any sort of realtiy based on historical or recent contract comparables. Unlessthey were taking about a 3 or 4 year shorter term deal (which he wasn't)

 

[LeafsNation75]

This is nothing but pure, misinformed speculation on your part. You've repeatedly gotten basic facts wrong and youre doubling down.

The fact is, Marleau was still part of the team, and by all accounts still in social contact with Matthews in the leadup to this incident. The implication that the mere speculation that Marleau might be moved caused Matthews to act the way he did is absurd.

Not only was Marleau still a Toronto Maple Leaf when that happened, let's remember this important fact.

Sometime after the Maple Leafs were eliminated from last years playoffs, Marleau put his home in Toronto up for sale because him and his whole family was moving back to San Jose. So he knew there was no chance of him playing the 3rd and final year of his contract.

The unknown at the time was if Kyle Dubas would be able to trade him back to San Jose because it was the only team he wanted to play for, even though it was reported the Los Angeles Kings were interested in trading for him and Marleau would not waive his NMC to play for them.