Analyzing Dubas's performance II - (Full Analysis)

[The CyNick]

Thats a lot more plausible scenario that what you’re implying, which if I were sum up would read as follows:

“Steven Stamkos wastes his own time to attend a business meeting with people he has no interest in from the beginning, in order to establish zero improvement in leverage, bargaining power and financial terms.”

I understand you’re trying to discredit management’s efforts, and all the power to you - but this is a stretch.

I've never read your posts before, but it shocks me anyone believes this. Good for you that you believe it.

To answer your question, I don't know exactly why he took all the meetings. My guess is his agent thought he should be paid more and wanted him to talk to teams before making a final decision. Speculation at the time was that several teams would come in above the $8.5M Tampa was offering. The agent probably wanted him to at least hear some offers and if nothing else it would drive up his price to Tampa. This was also widely reported at the time.

I think Stamkos was going through the process and ultimately just came to the conclusion that his heart was in Tampa, and wanted to stay there. Then the deal was done.

The story went that he canceled some meetings with other teams. If he scheduled those meetings, why would he cancel them? Detroit wouldn't have been able to offer him the same corporate guarantees as Toronto (if that's what scared him off), nor would Montreal or Boston. Why wouldn't he continue meeting with those teams? It's not like Toronto was the only other team interested in him.

The most likely scenario is he just decided the salary was less important than being somewhere where he's already happy and can win. Plus in Tampa, with the taxes, he was already coming out ahead money wise.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I believe the whole Canadian Tire guy pitch scared him from signing here was started by Simmons. Elliotte may have run with the idea as fact. But it's all speculation, no matter who originated it.

To believe it, you have to assume that Stamkos is such an introvert that the very idea of doing promotional work scared him back to Tampa. Even though he's done plenty of promotional work for companies like Gatorade. You have to also assume despite growing up in the GTA and cheering for the Leafs, that he somehow didn't know putting on the blue and white puts you in the spotlight in Toronto.

Is it not more logical that he liked living in Tampa? That he thought a team with a young core that he went to the Finals with had multiple chances to go back there? Is it possible he felt the Tampa hockey community was passionate and he enjoyed playing for them? Is it possible he felt he had unfinished business with the Lightning? Note he is quoted as saying all those things I just posted as reasons for staying.

There isn't one quote I've come across that would indicate he was seriously thinking about landing anywhere else, much less that some corporate execs scared him from going to Toronto. Feel free to post anything I may have missed.

But if you think Steve Simmons is the go to source for this type of info, by all means, believe what you will.

Look at the time I doubt any Leafs fans really expected them to sign Stamkos because Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner had not yet made their NHL debuts and William Nylander had only played 22 games after getting called up from the Marlies. So it wasn't a shock that he re-signed in Tampa since they went to the Stanley Cup Final in 2015 and Eastern Conference Final in 2016.

However since he re-signed on the day he meet with Toronto some people found that to be surprising and later on is when those reports came out how Lou Lamoriello screwed up bringing in the President of Canadian Tire and how Stamkos felt uncomfortable with how the meeting went.

 

[sparxx87]

You couldn't possibly know that. Lou has a history of signing bad contracts as well, but I will agree that he most likely would have saved a few million per year. (.5 NY, 1 matty, 1.5 mitch)

Also I seem to remember John being very impressed with Dubas' presentation specifically and saying that it stuck with him afterward.

The same guy who spoke highly of the management and direction of the Islanders for 10 years? The team that was a essentially a door mat until he left?

For me, his words should be taken with a grain of salt. Of course he’s going to speak highly of his organization - that’s what he’s always done, regardless of whether it’s warranted or not.

 

[The CyNick]

You couldn't possibly know that. Lou has a history of signing bad contracts as well, but I will agree that he most likely would have saved a few million per year. (.5 NY, 1 matty, 1.5 mitch)

Also I seem to remember John being very impressed with Dubas' presentation specifically and saying that it stuck with him afterward.

No GM is perfect. I was strongly against his contract extension with Zaitsev. I was one of the only people on day one critical of that deal.

You also have to factor in that the Island is a tough sell, so Lou is in a completely different situation than he was in Toronto, or even Jersey for that matter.

In Toronto, he signed mostly excellent deals. Rielly, Kadri, Andersen were all steals and foundational moves for the franchise.

John never once calls out Dubas for the presentation. He did call out Babs specifically, who appears to have played an underrated role in getting JT in blue and white. Dubas himself said the main difference between the pitch to JT and to Stamkos was that the young core was better and it was easier to show how JT in this case would compliment them.

 

[LeafsNation75]

The same guy who spoke highly of the management and direction of the Islanders for 10 years? The team that was a essentially a door mat until he left?

For me, his words should be taken with a grain of salt. Of course he’s going to speak highly of his organization - that’s what he’s always done, regardless of whether it’s warranted or not.

To be fair when he was with the Islanders Garth Snow was the only GM he ever had, so I can assume he got to know him very well on a personal level during his 9 years with them.

 

[Stephen]

I've never read your posts before, but it shocks me anyone believes this. Good for you that you believe it.

To answer your question, I don't know exactly why he took all the meetings. My guess is his agent thought he should be paid more and wanted him to talk to teams before making a final decision. Speculation at the time was that several teams would come in above the $8.5M Tampa was offering. The agent probably wanted him to at least hear some offers and if nothing else it would drive up his price to Tampa. This was also widely reported at the time.

I think Stamkos was going through the process and ultimately just came to the conclusion that his heart was in Tampa, and wanted to stay there. Then the deal was done.

The story went that he canceled some meetings with other teams. If he scheduled those meetings, why would he cancel them? Detroit wouldn't have been able to offer him the same corporate guarantees as Toronto (if that's what scared him off), nor would Montreal or Boston. Why wouldn't he continue meeting with those teams? It's not like Toronto was the only other team interested in him.

The most likely scenario is he just decided the salary was less important than being somewhere where he's already happy and can win. Plus in Tampa, with the taxes, he was already coming out ahead money wise.

So in summary, Stamkos took the meeting with the Toronto Maple Leafs to hear their pitch and having heard the pitch decided that the combination of money, market, team wasn’t the right fit? Sounds a lot like what we’ve all been saying the entire time.

 

[Blue Nate]

The same guy who spoke highly of the management and direction of the Islanders for 10 years? The team that was a essentially a door mat until he left?

For me, his words should be taken with a grain of salt. Of course he’s going to speak highly of his organization - that’s what he’s always done, regardless of whether it’s warranted or not.

This is true, he is always measured in his responses but the point I was making was in the context of Dubas influencing his decision to come to Toronto.

 

[The CyNick]

Look at the time I doubt any Leafs fans really expected them to sign Stamkos because Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner had not yet made their NHL debuts and William Nylander had only played 22 games after getting called up from the Marlies. So it wasn't a shock that he re-signed in Tampa since they went to the Stanley Cup Final in 2015 and Eastern Conference Final in 2016.

However since he re-signed on the day he meet with Toronto some people found that to be surprising and later on is when those reports came out how Lou Lamoriello screwed up bringing in the President of Canadian Tire and how Stamkos felt uncomfortable with how the meeting went.

Again, you're making a wild stretch there with him being uncomfortable. There's no quote from Stamkos saying the presentation made him uncomfortable. All he said was his heart was always in Tampa. Maybe the idea of being pitched by any team made him realize he couldn't see himself playing anywhere else. That seems more logical than a professional athlete being scared about making money via endorsements.

I would believe the story had Stamkos say signed with say Detroit. Then you could say okay he was willing to leave, and Detroit won the pitch game. Especially with Detroit, because they were declining, and it would seem like Stamkos had a desire to play close to home. But in this case, Stamkos sees Tampa as his home.

I still don't understand why you think he would cancel meetings with other teams based on being uncomfortable with the Toronto pitch.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

It was a good plan. Helped make the younger guys good pros on the ice. It's no coincidence that the summer they let him go Matthews is running around like a moron with his pants off. There was a lot of accountability removed from that room. The team has yet to recover from that.

If Lou was GM, the savings from the big three signings would have easily covered Marleau's final year. As was proven by the lack of heart in this team, his leadership was still required another year.

Matthews' incident happened on May 26th, and Marleau was traded on June 22nd. It would take a really interesting mind to blame Matthews' conduct on Marleau being traded from the team a month later

 

[The CyNick]

So in summary, Stamkos took the meeting with the Toronto Maple Leafs to hear their pitch and having heard the pitch decided that the combination of money, market, team wasn’t the right fit? Sounds a lot like what we’ve all been saying the entire time.

I think he took the pitch because his agent told him he should. He then heard the pitch and realized he couldn't imagine playing anywhere other than Tampa. You know how I know that? Because that's what Steven said happened.

What I'm disputing is that Lou messed up the pitch by bringing in people who wanted to give Stamkos money. I don't believe that "scared him off". I think he just wanted to stay in Tampa, and never seriously considered leaving.

 

[Joey Hoser]

This is true, he is always measured in his responses but the point I was making was in the context of Dubas influencing his decision to come to Toronto.

It shouldn't even matter. It could have been the case that Dubas didn't want Tavares, reluctantly took the meeting, and Tavares had to convince HIM to let him sign there, and Dubas should still get the credit because he's the GM and offered the contract and signed the player and that's what we judge GM's on.

It's literally that simple. This argument is absurd.

 

[sparxx87]

To be fair when he was with the Islanders Garth Snow was the only GM he ever had, so I can assume he got to know him very well on a personal level during his 9 years with them.

For sure. He’s a company man. I’m quite sure he’d give John Ferguson Jr. a glowing review if asked... That’s why it holds little weight when he credits Dubas for bringing him to a team he wanted to go to all along.

He would have signed with Martina Ortiz-Luis as the GM. He wanted to play for his favourite team in Toronto.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Again, you're making a wild stretch there with him being uncomfortable. There's no quote from Stamkos saying the presentation made him uncomfortable. All he said was his heart was always in Tampa. Maybe the idea of being pitched by any team made him realize he couldn't see himself playing anywhere else. That seems more logical than a professional athlete being scared about making money via endorsements.

I would believe the story had Stamkos say signed with say Detroit. Then you could say okay he was willing to leave, and Detroit won the pitch game. Especially with Detroit, because they were declining, and it would seem like Stamkos had a desire to play close to home. But in this case, Stamkos sees Tampa as his home.

I still don't understand why you think he would cancel meetings with other teams based on being uncomfortable with the Toronto pitch.

Since he re-signed in Tampa after meeting with the Maple Leafs, obviously he would cancel his other meetings with those teams he had planned.

 

[The CyNick]

Matthews' incident happened on May 26th, and Marleau was traded on June 22nd. It would take a really interesting mind to blame Matthews' conduct on Marleau being traded from the team a month later

It was already made clear he wasn't coming back. The accountability was gone. And there's also an issue of how it was handled after the incident. I believe the old leadership group would have done a better job advising AM how to handle a dumb decision.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

It was already made clear he wasn't coming back. The accountability was gone. And there's also an issue of how it was handled after the incident. I believe the old leadership group would have done a better job advising AM how to handle a dumb decision.

It sounds like Lou didn't get his money's worth if Marleau had to not only still be in the organization, but stay forever in order for his leadership to have any effect

 

[Blue Nate]

No GM is perfect. I was strongly against his contract extension with Zaitsev. I was one of the only people on day one critical of that deal.

You also have to factor in that the Island is a tough sell, so Lou is in a completely different situation than he was in Toronto, or even Jersey for that matter.

In Toronto, he signed mostly excellent deals. Rielly, Kadri, Andersen were all steals and foundational moves for the franchise.

John never once calls out Dubas for the presentation. He did call out Babs specifically, who appears to have played an underrated role in getting JT in blue and white. Dubas himself said the main difference between the pitch to JT and to Stamkos was that the young core was better and it was easier to show how JT in this case would compliment them.

Yes Rielly, Kadri, and Andersen's deals were great.

But I have 2 issues with comparing the Rielly et al signings and the big 3:
1.) The team was terrible with those first 3 signed.
2.) All three of them had much more to prove. We had only inconsistent glimpses of Rielly's and Kadri's abilities and Andersen had never played a full season as #1 ( i don't think).

 

[LeafsNation75]

If Lou was GM, the savings from the big three signings would have easily covered Marleau's final year. As was proven by the lack of heart in this team, his leadership was still required another year.

So how come Mike Babcock admitted knowing that Marleau would not end up playing the 3rd year of his contract.

Mike Babcock: Toronto Maple Leafs knew Patrick Marleau wouldn't play Year 3 of contract - TSN.ca

Also on July 1, 2017 is when Nylander became eligible to sign a contract extension since he was going into the 3rd and final year of his ELC. Lou was still the Leafs GM at the time and failed to make that happen. He could have also done that during the 2017-18 season, where as Kyle Dubas got Auston Matthews to sign his extension on February 5, 2019 which was during the 2018-19 season.

 

[The CyNick]

Since he re-signed in Tampa after meeting with the Maple Leafs, obviously he would cancel his other meetings with those teams he had planned.

I'm just trying to follow your premise.

You guys are trying to say if Stamkos really wanted to stay in Tampa, why would he waste his time and schedule meetings with other teams.

Okay, say we buy that logic. The same logic would indicate that if he booked meetings with other teams (besides the Leafs) that he would still attend those meetings.

Somehow the things the Leafs pitched, which would only apply to playing in the Toronto market scared him from not only playing in Toronto, but also scared him from Detroit, Montreal, Boston, Vancouver, etc.

If he was only planning to meet with Toronto, then I could buy your argument a tiny bit, but the way it played out just tells me he said I want to be in Tampa.

 

[The CyNick]

So how come Mike Babcock admitted knowing that Marleau would not end up playing the 3rd year of his contract.

Mike Babcock: Toronto Maple Leafs knew Patrick Marleau wouldn't play Year 3 of contract - TSN.ca

Also on July 1, 2017 is when Nylander became eligible to sign a contract extension since he was going into the 3rd and final year of his ELC. Lou was still the Leafs GM at the time and failed to make that happen. He could have also done that during the 2017-18 season, where as Kyle Dubas got Auston Matthews to sign his extension on February 5, 2019 which was during the 2018-19 season.

Scuttlebutt around the rink was Shanny wanted Dubas to do all three.

Even if that's BS (its possible it is), I think Lou would have threatened to let Nylander sit the whole season. I think Lou's way would have been to use Nylander as an example (possibly ultimately trading him who knows), but it would have been a warning to the other two and they would have fell in line.

 

[The CyNick]

Yes Rielly, Kadri, and Andersen's deals were great.

But I have 2 issues with comparing the Rielly et al signings and the big 3:
1.) The team was terrible with those first 3 signed.
2.) All three of them had much more to prove. We had only inconsistent glimpses of Rielly's and Kadri's abilities and Andersen had never played a full season as #1 ( i don't think).

I don't think the position of the team has anything to do with their dollar value.

I agree they both had a lot to prove. But the difference is while lots of people thought Kadri had 30-30 plus potential, he wasn't paid like that because he had not done it yet.

Matthews is the 3rd highest player in the league, and Marner is the 2nd highest paid winger. I think we all hope they will one day play up to that, but thus far neither guy has played up to those numbers. Worse yet, both somehow managed to get away without signing max years.

That's the difference to me. Lou was able to sign guys who had yet to reach their max potential to "prove it" deals. And Dubas paid the guys in front of him like that had already hit their max potential.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I'm just trying to follow your premise.

You guys are trying to say if Stamkos really wanted to stay in Tampa, why would he waste his time and schedule meetings with other teams.

Okay, say we buy that logic. The same logic would indicate that if he booked meetings with other teams (besides the Leafs) that he would still attend those meetings.

Somehow the things the Leafs pitched, which would only apply to playing in the Toronto market scared him from not only playing in Toronto, but also scared him from Detroit, Montreal, Boston, Vancouver, etc.

If he was only planning to meet with Toronto, then I could buy your argument a tiny bit, but the way it played out just tells me he said I want to be in Tampa.

I'm saying it made sense for Stamkos to cancel his other meetings because it was after meeting with Toronto that him or his agennt called up Steve Yzerman saying he was going to sign re-sign with Tampa Bay.

Scuttlebutt around the rink was Shanny wanted Dubas to do all three.

Even if that's BS (its possible it is), I think Lou would have threatened to let Nylander sit the whole season. I think Lou's way would have been to use Nylander as an example (possibly ultimately trading him who knows), but it would have been a warning to the other two and they would have fell in line.

Either way on July 1, 2017 it was only Nylander who was eligible to sign a contract extension since he was going into the final year of his ELC. From what I remember Lou tried to get him signed and it never happened, so that was a failure on his part.

However when Matthews and Marner became eligible to sign contract extensions on July 1, 2018 we know that Dubas got Matthews to sign one during the 2018-19 season, because that happened on February 5, 2019.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Scuttlebutt around the rink was Shanny wanted Dubas to do all three.

Even if that's BS (its possible it is), I think Lou would have threatened to let Nylander sit the whole season. I think Lou's way would have been to use Nylander as an example (possibly ultimately trading him who knows), but it would have been a warning to the other two and they would have fell in line.

Let Nylander sit a year so you have your 3 big RFAs all due for contracts in the same offseason, brilliant. You understand that gives them literally all the leverage, we don't have a team without them signed and nobody would give us close to full value in a trade knowing we have no other options. We also can't use the cap space reserved for signing them.

 

[The CyNick]

I'm saying it made sense for Stamkos to cancel his other meetings because it was after meeting with Toronto that him or his agennt called up Steve Yzerman saying he was going to sign re-sign with Tampa Bay.

Either way on July 1, 2017 it was only Nylander who was eligible to sign a contract extension since he was going into the final year of his ELC. From what I remember Lou tried to get him signed and it never happened, so that was a failure on his part.

However when Matthews and Marner became eligible to sign contract extensions on July 1, 2018 we know that Dubas got Matthews to sign one during the 2018-19 season, because that happened on February 5, 2019.

If you think Lou failed with Nylander, then you don't understand negotiation. Lou was using the power afforded to him, which was time. Dubas should have used that more effectively, instead he panicked and caved to a bad deal.

And the matthews deal was God awful. Surely you're not bragging about that deal?

 

[The CyNick]

Let Nylander sit a year so you have your 3 big RFAs all due for contracts in the same offseason, brilliant. You understand that gives them literally all the leverage, we don't have a team without them signed and nobody would give us close to full value in a trade knowing we have no other options.

So what?

Good luck with those KHL deals boys. We'll be over here with NHL contracts when you're ready to play.

I can pretty well guarentee with Lou, neither guy would have missed any time. Rielly and Kadri didn't miss any games.

 

[Martin Skoula]

So what?

Good luck with those KHL deals boys. We'll be over here with NHL contracts when you're ready to play.

I can pretty well guarentee with Lou, neither guy would have missed any time. Rielly and Kadri didn't miss any games.

So Lou would throw a season so he can save enough cap space to keep Marleau? Brilliant.

Rielly and Kadri weren't elite players when they got signed, signing a 45 point center for 4.5 isn't an accomplishment, it's market value.

Do you just forget that the last big deal Lou negotiated was so bad that he got fined for it?