Analyzing Dubas's performance II - (Full Analysis)

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Alamo Leafer

Help end animal cruelty
Sep 12, 2018
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Florida calling Dubas, hello Mr. Dubas:
"Hearing that FLA will officially announce this morning that it is not renewing GM Dale Tallon’s contract. The Panthers are not expected to name a successor, instead conducting an external GM search."
per Friedman
 

613Leafer

Registered User
May 26, 2008
12,838
3,667
I’m a fan of Dubas, I am ... but if we lose this series and win the Lafreniere lottery I want Dubas to not be here and a fresh new set of eyes to make player personnel decisions, because he has too many biases to make the right decisions at that point.

His brand of Ladies hockey and building a team with no grit and a patchwork D isn’t gonna get it done in the playoffs

Dubas has done some good things. I think our euro signings have been solid, our drafting has been good, and his contracts to secondary RFAs and UFAs have generally been good.

But his top RFA contracts pretty much went as poorly as they possibly could have, and that unfortunately has a way bigger longterm impact than doing reasonably well re-signing Kapanen/AJ.

And then like you said - too much of a focus on skill. Mix in ~3 more Muzzin/Hyman types on this team, and we'd be a way better team IMO. Barrie was a disaster, and now longterm we have a huge downgrade from Kadri to Kerfoot and not even a ton of extra capspace to show for it.
 

Face Of Bear

Registered User
Jul 30, 2012
2,038
1,165
I like a lot of the things Dubas has done with the team, but the failures of this seasons are 100% on him.

1) Giving up the heart and soul of our team for a flaccid uninspired impending UFA Barrie as the solution to our D is the biggest miss for me.

2) Signing Tavares and not locking up the young core players BEFORE they played a season with him. I remember that summer Marner wanted 'Draisaitl money' and Matthews are more fairly comparable to Eichel. Could have saved +4M there. Now with the team in disarray and no flexibility to improve, Captain Tavares seems more like a burden than a solution @ 11M.

3) Doubling, tripping, quadrupling down on 'small skill'. This team has no weight behind it, not momentum, no meanness. Everything is very cookie-cutter and predictable. Columbus dominated our 'puck possession speed game' because it lacked any heart or intensity. The team is too predictable and fragile. Spezza is the only guy who showed any emotion like he cared and wanted to make a difference. Everyone else was bland and vanilla all series focusing on possession and setting up rushes that CBJ was all too prepared to defend against. We were missing that 'Tom Wilson' factor who can shake up a game that might not be going in your favor.

4) Defense. Seeing Ceci, Marincin, and Holl out there as 3 of our 5 D last night was utterly painful to watch. These guys and Barrie could have been replaced with literally pylons and our fortunes wouldn't have been any different. CBJ running Jones/Werenski they get their two best players out there ever 3rd shift (or more) and these guys lead the defense, they lead the offense, and they make shit happen no matter which forward group is on the ice. For the Leafs they have Rielly who could jump in.... and not much else. The bottom 4 are so vanilla and useless that imo, our bottom 3 forward lines fared significantly worse because they had no one that can help make plays from the back end.

Solutions (???):

I think Pietrangelo is exactly the type of player this team is missing - but acquiring him wont be easy. If we could add him and flip one of Matthews/Marner/Tavares for a package of young (cheap) quality pieces to fill out some holes in the roster, I think there might be room to take a step forward next year. Even after this disappointment, I'd still prefer if there was a way to keep the big boys and compete, but we CANNOT go into next season with Rielly/Muzzin as our two best D surrounded by bargain bin pickups and rookies (Sandin/Liljegren). I also think we need to get a 3rd line center that bring more utility. Kerfoot was uninspiring all season long and never got going on any line. If the 3rd line isn't bringing offense then it better be bringing something else. I'd consider moving all of Kerfoot/Kapanen/Johnson if it brought it some players with more tenacity - even if they're less 'skilled'. I'd also considering moving them for simple draft picks, as our cupboards are again running try of quality talent and we need to free up cap space.

Overall I'd be ok giving Dubas one more year to figure this out because I think he has a better grip on this team then someone new coming in would - but if he cant make significant changes to the make-up of this team then he should go (I'd wait till mid-season to see results).
 

daveleaf

#FIREKEEFE #MIGHTBETIMETOFIRESHANNYTOO
Mar 23, 2010
5,858
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Canada
If Dubas sticks around Shanny will be a fool. In my opinion Muzzin was good and everything else is bad. His management of assets and trading extra pieces is horrible. Traded a very good player that scored 30 goals for us for a crappy d-man and an extra part centreman. Before anyone jumps on my back, Barrie has always sucked. End of story, that will be one of the worst trades in Leaf history.
 

Gabriel426

Registered User
Jun 30, 2015
16,764
10,401
Either Dubas staying or not, there needs to be change in the roster.
1. They can’t have three 10mil plus player
2. They need at least one if not two defensive Dman.
3. Need forwards that play the simple game and do all the little things.
4. Need a new goalie coach
 

CaptainCrunch17

Registered User
Dec 31, 2010
461
672
North of Toronto
I thought ownership had decided that after the JFJ disaster, there would be no more rookie GM hirings.

Too big a market, too important a market for a inexperienced GM to apprentice in.

But once again, here we are.
 
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sparxx87

Don Quixote
Jan 5, 2010
13,834
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Toronto
It’s incomprehensible how anyone who cheers for this team and franchise could still be behind this guy.

They were a team on the rise against Washington. Weren’t supposed to be in the playoffs but made it and had a good showing. League was on notice, this was a team on the rise that was going to be problems for the next 5-10 years...

...and then they hired Kyle Dubas. Now their salary cap is near maxed, team is incredibly flawed, and they aren’t even a playoff team anymore.

Dubas has done nothing to get the benefit of the doubt and it’ll be an absolute farce if he still has a job in a week.
 

Bomber0104

Registered User
Apr 8, 2007
15,086
6,951
Burlington
Either Dubas staying or not, there needs to be change in the roster.
1. They can’t have three 10mil plus player
2. They need at least one if not two defensive Dman.
3. Need forwards that play the simple game and do all the little things.
4. Need a new goalie coach

How and why would you ever trust Dubas at this point to fix the problems that he himself created?
 

Shooter14

57 years now and still hoping.
Feb 5, 2018
401
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It's a huge mess that he has created. Shanahan can't let him go at this moment because he's the one that hired him, otherwise he looks bad. If you want to get rid of Dubas, they would need to get rid of Shanahan first. This way the new president can clean house.
 

Mr Knies Guy

Registered User
Jul 5, 2008
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It's a huge mess that he has created. Shanahan can't let him go at this moment because he's the one that hired him, otherwise he looks bad. If you want to get rid of Dubas, they would need to get rid of Shanahan first. This way the new president can clean house.
I feel like I've seen this move of scorched earth before....

Dubas won't be going anywhere, unfortunately. His team building strategy is pathetic and doesn't work in the playoffs when space and time is limited/cut-off. But hey, at least reg. season will be fun to watch the primadonnas cruising around making pretty plays, right??
 

Stephen

Moderator
Feb 28, 2002
78,983
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One thing that’s been apparent over the past few years is a hockey management brain drain in Toronto. Lou Lamoriello, Mark Hunter, Mike Babcock, DJ Smith. And incoming Paul McFarland (headed back juniors), Dave Hakstol (fired from Philadelphia). It’s like we’re down to the Dubas and Keefe show and they’re as inexperienced as our core players.
 
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Plat87

Registered User
Nov 22, 2018
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can the Leafs afford "one more season" of Kyle Dubas?

After thinking about it more, I think you are right...there is no point in stalling another year and risking Dubass making this team even worse and even more Charmin ultra soft.
 
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Green Snow Storm

Registered User
Jul 22, 2009
5,177
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Canada
Dubas fan here.

He's going to need to alter his vision. We need players capable of playing a tighter checking game. We can't win with 4 skill lines, we need to insulate the elite skill we do have with players who retrieve pucks and play the game tightly. Obviously adding depth to our defence is key along with adding better defecemen.
 

Punch Drunk Loov

Gaaaaary Roberts!
Dec 6, 2011
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Signing Tavares was a homerun even with the cap implications.

The management of the big 3 couldn't have gone much worse. Nylander's deal is good. Overall outcome pretty bad.

At the time being it looks like we've badly lost two trades, and done well enough or pretty even with the rest.

We've made some good secondary signings.

Let's see what's in store this offseason. As of today, I think Kyle is in the general area of mediocre - to fair in performance.
 

stickty111

Registered User
Jan 23, 2017
26,695
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Dubas has done a good job with 2 major mistakes in the Kadri deal and the Marner deal. He also has hit a couple home runs so it evens out.
His drafting looks tremendous but it's early. His FA signings have been good.
Overall a solid B.
Now the tough part. Evaluation of this core, and seeing if one of them has to go, and I mean Marner.
Kyle is on the clock.
 

ItsFineImFine

Registered User
Aug 11, 2019
3,538
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I'm unclear about the timeline of the upcoming off-season but it should be enough to say whether we still have a chance with him or if we're screwed. So if he goes and makes sweeping changes, I mean sweeping (like almost all those playoff D gone outside Muzzin/Rielly/maybe Holl due to contract alongside a significant turnover of at least 3 top 9 forwards), then it means he understands the issue and is willing to address it.

But if we start the season with the same question marks like we did last year where we had a bunch of question marks on D like Ceci, then we're in trouble and he isn't getting the job done. That would be a sign that he's in love with his players. Moving one of the big four might take some time but if he does stuff like keeping Dermott while keeping Holl too, not trading one of Johnsson/Kapanen, giving like a multi-year contract to Mikhaeyev, etc then that's a sign that he's in love with his players or thinks these guys can actually win.
 

ACC1224

Super Elite, Passing ALL Tests since 2002
Aug 19, 2002
73,932
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I don’t think anyone can honestly give him any high marks for the moves he’s made while in charge. I’d say a C is a tad generous. More like a C- which ironically would have been the marks he needed to get into Brock Sports Management
 

hamzarocks

Registered User
Jul 22, 2012
20,451
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Pickering, Ontario
I had him as a mid tier GM before the playin series (10-15) but we saw the leafs once again fail to advance. Rn I have to drop him around 17-22 range of GMs. I'd give his tenure right now a C+. He has not been Good enough so far. He needs to shift the outlook on defense and add better depth wingers than what we have right now.
 

rumman

Registered User
Sep 10, 2008
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I don’t think anyone can honestly give him any high marks for the moves he’s made while in charge. I’d say a C is a tad generous. More like a C- which ironically would have been the marks he needed to get into Brock Sports Management
a grade of D is being generous, handed the reins of a dynasty and nothing but failure after failure................
 
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Cleetus

"snot"
Jan 2, 2012
19,984
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North!
Dubas has done a good job with 2 major mistakes in the Kadri deal and the Marner deal. He also has hit a couple home runs so it evens out.
His drafting looks tremendous but it's early. His FA signings have been good.
Overall a solid B.
Now the tough part. Evaluation of this core, and seeing if one of them has to go, and I mean Marner.
Kyle is on the clock.
lol a solid B, guess you like getting eliminated every year early, glad you are ok with mediocrity, I sure am not Fire Dubas!
 
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