Analyzing Dubas's performance II - (Full Analysis)

[hullsy47]

I hope dubas is feeling the heat. If we lose before we even get to the first round, KD needs to go

i believe dubas is on the hotseat
but i think he get to start the 2021 season
keefe has 2 years left he ll get at least a half year 2020 /21

 

[biotk]

That would have been a horrible message to the team and essentially throwing away the year for a rather inconsequential return.

So? The team has been sending the message all season that they are not a contender. People still whine and moan that the team let players like Bozak walk rather than trading them - and that was on a team that was better than this team is. (and by that I mean that was on a team that was better than this team is - in the real world - not Dekes world, where they are better now, Jones is not good, Tampa was better than Columbus last year in the series where they got swept, and since then Columbus has lost all their good players).

 

[Dekes For Days]

So? The team has been sending the message all season that they are not a contender.

No they haven't. You don't throw away seasons, especially for mediocre returns.

People still whine and moan that the team let players like Bozak walk rather than trading them

Yep. That is also ridiculous.

and that was on a team that was better than this team is.

It wasn't a better team.

Dekes world, where they are better now, Jones is not good, Tampa was better than Columbus last year in the series where they got swept, and since then Columbus has lost all their good players).

Maybe address what I actually say, instead of making up your own ideas and then claiming I said it.

 

[rumman]

Win or lose this next game. Win or lose the series. Doesn't matter in the big scheme of things. It should be starting to become more evident that this team has structural problems for which there is no easy fix, and certainly won't come from within. Almost everyone knew that Babcock needed to put his ego aside and change his way. He didn't. The question is can Dubas put his ego aside and change?

if they lose to the Jackets I'd say the coach wasn't the problem it is what many of us have said it was.........a team constructed with zero balance..........

 

[Gallagbi]

if they lose to the Jackets I'd say the coach wasn't the problem it is what many of us have said it was.........a team constructed with zero balance..........

Looks like it's heart issues (and goaltending) more than balance. They had opportunities to win the past two playoffs and last night, but didn't. They weren't in over their head, they weren't willing/able to convert when they had chances.

It'll be interesting to see how they bounce back in this series, but I'm not optimistic

 

[rumman]

The team did not need Barrie. They had Rielly to QB the first unit. Muzzin could have easily been the second unit QB, and the reality is that the second unit is so poor that a great QB is just wasted there.

but they had to give Kadri away for nothing to some team.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Dubas has admitted before that his philosophy might be wrong and might need to be changed. Mirtle was saying a couple months ago that he thinks that Dubas and Shanahan recognize that this experiment hasn't worked out as planned. I think that acquiring Clifford and the 3 tough D Lebrun says they were after at the trade deadline show that they are not confident in the construction of their roster.

Will it happen? Probably not and I guess we will see before the next season starts. My guess is that there is a lot riding on this play in round.
If they manage to win it or lose it, but take it to 5 games, there will likely be little change.
If they lose it in 3 games, especially if they continue to get good goal-tending, then I have to assume that major changes would have to be made.

I think that the Leafs' best chances of winning a cup in the next 4 or 5 years results if they make major changes after getting swept here (and that is assuming that they don't win the lottery as their chances would still be 87.5% that they don't have a first round pick).

If we are going to lose to them...might as well be in 3 and stop this charade of smallish, skilled players that are overpaid as soon as possible. He might have admitted its not working...but will he admit that he cannot have 4 high paid players and trade one of them?

 

[ShaneFalco]

but they had to give Kadri away for nothing to some team.

Somehow the guy who got suspended the last 2 playoffs is the answer

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Looks like it's heart issues (and goaltending) more than balance. They had opportunities to win the past two playoffs and last night, but didn't. They weren't in over their head, they weren't willing/able to convert when they had chances.

It'll be interesting to see how they bounce back in this series, but I'm not optimistic

I would be surprised if they even win a single game to be honest. They need to chip the puck over the trap and go and dig it out...they don't have the players nor the fortitude to do that. They will run up against a columbus type team every year in the playoffs...they need to be able to play more than 1 style to win. The team as constructed is not going to chip and chase in the corners AND be successful ....they just aren't built for that....and they don't seem to think its and issue.

 

[biotk]

if they lose to the Jackets I'd say the coach wasn't the problem it is what many of us have said it was.........a team constructed with zero balance..........

Babcock can manage to be both a problem, and not the problem.

I will say this though, on a lot of the things posters constantly about, Babcock seems to have known what he was talking about...

Remember when everyone said that Matthews would be even more dominant if played more....

Matthews total ice time per game has gone up from 17:38 in his rookie year to 18:08 in year 2, 18:33 in year 3, 19:49 in year 4 under Babcock; and 21:32 under Keefe.

His 5v5 ATOI and 5v5 P/60:
2016/17 - 14:09 - 2.17
2017/18 - 14:59 - 2.91
2018/19 - 15:00 - 2.76
2019/20(Babs) - 15:13 - 2.74
2019/20(Keefe) - 17.05 - 2.17

That is a massive fall.

Babcock was also pressured (by the players and probably management) into switching from having 2 extremely good PP units, which ensured that could always have a rested starting unit, and which teams could not prepare against, and were the second best PP team both seasons (2016/17 and 2017/18), to having one loaded PP unit which gets most of the PP time and which has been slightly better than average since.

The star players have basically received everything they wanted: new coach, the deployment they want, the contracts they want, etc. And what does the team have to show for it? They get worse each year.

 

[biotk]

If we are going to lose to them...might as well be in 3 and stop this charade of smallish, skilled players that are overpaid as soon as possible. He might have admitted its not working...but will he admit that he cannot have 4 high paid players and trade one of them?

One can hope.

 

[Menzinger]

Babcock can manage to be both a problem, and not the problem.

I will say this though, on a lot of the things posters constantly about, Babcock seems to have known what he was talking about...

Remember when everyone said that Matthews would be even more dominant if played more....

Matthews total ice time per game has gone up from 17:38 in his rookie year to 18:08 in year 2, 18:33 in year 3, 19:49 in year 4 under Babcock; and 21:32 under Keefe.

His 5v5 ATOI and 5v5 P/60:
2016/17 - 14:09 - 2.17
2017/18 - 14:59 - 2.91
2018/19 - 15:00 - 2.76
2019/20(Babs) - 15:13 - 2.74
2019/20(Keefe) - 17.05 - 2.17

That is a massive fall.

Babcock was also pressured (by the players and probably management) into switching from having 2 extremely good PP units, which ensured that could always have a rested starting unit, and which teams could not prepare against, and were the second best PP team both seasons (2016/17 and 2017/18), to having one loaded PP unit which gets most of the PP time and which has been slightly better than average since.

The star players have basically received everything they wanted: new coach, the deployment they want, the contracts they want, etc. And what does the team have to show for it? They get worse each year.

The two unit system had completely stagnant though. No getting around that.

Fact is, the best pp units in the league tend to be stacked. I dont think it's so much as players demanding change, rather conventional wisdom

 

[Canadian Finn]

The star players have basically received everything they wanted: new coach, the deployment they want, the contracts they want, etc. And what does the team have to show for it? They get worse each year.

I hope someone answers this.

Hopefully from someone who called Babcock a dinosaur at every opportunity.

 

[biotk]

The two unit system had completely stagnant though. No getting around that.

Had it though?

Over the last 10 games of 2017/18 the Leafs' PP scored at the absurdly high rate of 16.18 G/60 (NYI was second at 12.38). Over the last 25 games of 2017/18 the Leafs' PP had scored at the still absurdly high rate of 14.6 G/60 (The Avs were second with 11.08). In the playoffs that year they fell to 9.69 G/60. In the 2 years of going with one loaded PP unit they are at 7.99 G/60 (8th in the NHL) and 6.24 G/60 in the playoffs (12th).

Fact is, the best pp units in the league tend to be stacked. I dont think it's so much as players demanding change, rather conventional wisdom

No other team had the ability to put out two units of the strength that Toronto could. They had to stack out of necessity.

 

[biotk]

I hope someone answers this.

Hopefully from someone who called Babcock a dinosaur at every opportunity.

I won't lie - I called Babcock a dinosaur pretty often. But, I also said that if Babcock got the boot and things didn't change (or got worse) then I would admit to being wrong. I was wrong. Babcock was not perfect. I don't think that he was coach to take this team to the top. But the big problems with this team were not because of the coach.

 

[Canadian Finn]

I won't lie - I called Babcock a dinosaur pretty often. But, I also said that if Babcock got the boot and things didn't change (or got worse) then I would admit to being wrong. I was wrong. Babcock was not perfect. I don't think that he was coach to take this team to the top. But the big problems with this team were not because of the coach.

Impressive.

Honestly.

 

[Menzinger]

Had it though?

Over the last 10 games of 2017/18 the Leafs' PP scored at the absurdly high rate of 16.18 G/60 (NYI was second at 12.38). Over the last 25 games of 2017/18 the Leafs' PP had scored at the still absurdly high rate of 14.6 G/60 (The Avs were second with 11.08). In the playoffs that year they fell to 9.69 G/60. In the 2 years of going with one loaded PP unit they are at 7.99 G/60 (8th in the NHL) and 6.24 G/60 in the playoffs (12th).



No other team had the ability to put out two units of the strength that Toronto could. They had to stack out of necessity.

I wouldnt call the 1st pp unit properly loaded until Nylander was on it though.

 

[biotk]

I wouldnt call the 1st pp unit properly loaded until Nylander was on it though.

That's fine. (As naturalstattrick will look at performance over the last 10 games and over the last 25 games) The Leafs' had the 11th best PP over the last 25 games of the season (with the 27th best xGF/60 in the league). They had the 25th best PP over the last 10 games of the season. (with the worst xGF/60 in the NHL - and with the 5th highest xGA/60 for both time frames). And they looked completely toothless last night (and during the exhibtion game before that - almost 9 minutes of PP time between those 2 games - 0 goals, didn't look dangerous at all).

During that time they have changed things very little - even though they had months off before the playoffs. Can you imagine how badly the pitch-forks would be out over that if it was Babcock.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

So far, he’s a chump

 

[kb]

I hope someone answers this.

Hopefully from someone who called Babcock a dinosaur at every opportunity.

Even with all the injuries, under Keefe they played at their best points pace save the 2016/2017 season. Not sure how anyone can say they are getting worse.

 

[Gallagbi]

I hope someone answers this.

Hopefully from someone who called Babcock a dinosaur at every opportunity.

I questioned Babcock, so I'll throw this out there (even if I feel he's a good coach on the right spot).

1- the team has simply looked better under Keefe this year
2- the core has gotten to a point where they need to step up. That wasn't happening under Babs.

 

[Menzinger]

I hope someone answers this.

Hopefully from someone who called Babcock a dinosaur at every opportunity.

The core can have issues and Babcock still had problems. It's not necessarily an either-or situation.

 

[Dreakmur]

I questioned Babcock, so I'll throw this out there (even if I feel he's a good coach on the right spot).

1- the team has simply looked better under Keefe this year

But not as good as under Babcock last year and the year before.

2- the core has gotten to a point where they need to step up. That wasn't happening under Babs.

That isn't happening under Keefe either. Matthews has stepped up a little, but Marner has really fallen off.

 

[Menzinger]

But not as good as under Babcock last year and the year before.



That isn't happening under Keefe either. Matthews has stepped up a little, but Marner has really fallen off.

I think ons would need to give a new coach a full offseason-camp-season-playoff cycle before a proper evaluation one way or the other

 

[Gallagbi]

But not as good as under Babcock last year and the year before.

Better than last year but worse than the year prior IMO.

That isn't happening under Keefe either. Matthews has stepped up a little, but Marner has really fallen off.

Marner fell off under both, sometimes you remove the variable to test the team. They were done with Babs, to move forward, he needed to go.