Weekes: Along with The Devils, significant interest on Meier are coming from Vegas, Toronto, Carolina

[notbias]

Robertson is out producing Badard for AHL points too and has more NHL points . So if I was the team that drafted Bedard l I’d trade him for Robertson for sure

Thank you for addressing my question. Ignore the Robertson comment and address his terrible point production and bad play-driving stats. I only added Robertson because he is a similar-aged player who people say is struggling and has no value.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Holtz has been yo-yo'd in and out of the lineup all year, and when he does play he gets put on the 4th line with turds and hardly gets PP time. He is less than a year removed from a ppg year in the AHL as a 20 year old, which is impressive. He didnt just forget how to play.

 

[Forge]

I think the Devils have the best prospects to make a deal work and there is the Swiss factor too, but I think Devils fan underestimating the implications for cap next year and on the team next year. Yes they have the money to sign Meier (8-9M) and Bratt (7-8), plus Shango due for a raise, who I think they keep. But all these takes from Devils fans that we can just throw in 2 rookie D next year into our top 6 and 3 rookie F as well and a rookie backup goalie, that can affect the team. Name the last team who had playoff success with potentiallly that many rookies in the lineup. Maybe they do sign some vets for cheap or some of their own UFA/RFA cheap, but I don't think it will be as easy as some think.

I'm not worried about the defense or the goalie situation. There is no reason to think that Hughes can't step in right away and play at a pretty good level offensively at the very least. Having your #6 D being Okhotiuk or Bahl (if they wanted to keep Nemec in Utica next year) isn't great, but isn't a back breaker. Cap teams have to do this and hope that the structure and players around them smooth that out.

Blackwood has a sub .900 save percentage the last 75 starts which covers 3 years. I mean, you'd prefer to just be better in that spot, but if you're going to have that type of backup, there's no reason to think that you can't get that type of performance at a third of the cost from Schmid or Daws

The forward group is where it gets more interesting, but there are too many moving parts for me to really say what they will do. I think it would be a big help if someone like Tatar came back on like a 2.25M cap hit next year. I'm not overly concerned about losing Wood given how bad he has been this year. Losing a player isn't always bad just because they have experience or a vet. It's already a lot of younger guys and RFAs...i'm not sure how that all shakes out. I could see Rango being gone, or re-signed, for example.

 

[Strangle]

Agreed with your entire post, but this part. Willie was coming off a 20 goal/60 point season, almost identical to his 2nd season and at the time I believe the thinking was he should be getting low/mid 6s on a longer-term deal, or at least the just-shy of $7M he signed for was on the high side.

It also didn't help that his father's influence on his contract wasn't encouraging:

"In his 16 NHL seasons, Michael Nylander played for seven teams, including a second go-round with the Washington Capitals. The common thread running through every stop was contentious contract negotiations. "

Nylander negotiations boil down to what Papa wants

One consistent signal beaming from the Nylander camp since contract negotiations started last summer is that the restricted free agent’s father is the one calling the shots

www.theglobeandmail.com

And so there was some fear that "junior" would play hard ball just like his dad did, and look what happened. Dubas went way above and beyond the call to get him signed - way more than any GM should have to for a player that was not the franchise player, or even a star.

So that's why I pointed out that between Timo and Nylander, even if Willie is considered the better talent, Timo is a big, skilled forward the Leafs could use in their top 6 and will likely be the easier negotiation and possibly at a cheaper cap hit. that's if he wants to stay.

I can see all of that, it’s absolutely a perfectly valid point of view.

This is all very nuanced and it’s almost impossible to come to a consensus. These GM’s do not have an easy job

 

[Mafoofoo]

Holtz has been yo-yo'd in and out of the lineup all year, and when he does play he gets put on the 4th line with turds and hardly gets PP time. He is less than a year removed from a ppg year in the AHL as a 20 year old, which is impressive. He didnt just forget how to play.

Is there a reason he can’t stay in the lineup? Seems a bit concerning the coaching staff doesn’t even trust him with consistent minutes yet he’s the awesome prospect at the center of the deal?

 

[BlueBaron]

There was a report not too long ago that the Leafs don't want to move their 1st round pick/their top prospect, and I don't think Vegas has the right prospect unless the Sharks want Lukas Cormier. Almost certainly going to come down to the Canes and Devils, and there's just too much smoke linking Timo to New Jersey.

To be exact it was they would not spend them on a rental. That being said it seems a stretch we could get him and keep him, Vegas seems unlikely also.

 

[Ciao]

You're forgetting another option, deal him in the summer as an RFA

They would have to qualify him first, and then try to move a $10-million contract.

No thanks.

 

[Brodeur]

How is Holtz projecting? He seems like the main piece and I am just asking because Robertson is outproducing him this year, the even-strength (and overall) production from Holtz is concerning, but I don't watch enough to know, he just has horrible stats and his xGF% is terrible.

Sharangovich and Zetterlund also don't look fantastic based on stats.

It seems like the 1st may be the most valuable piece going back.

It's been hard to draw any conclusions on Holtz simply because he hasn't played much in the last few months. If it were me, I would have sent him back to the AHL awhile ago. When he has gotten in, he's been used in the bottom six which isn't the ideal way to use him. Just seems like a limited sample space to draw any conclusions for a guy who just turned 21.

Sharangovich got pushed down the lineup with Palat and a returning Miles Wood. One thing with Sharangovich is that he hasn't received regular PP time in his three seasons. His 20 even strength goals last year was tied with guys like Elias Pettersson and Mikko Rantanen.

I'm not saying Sharangovich is a star player, but he's been productive in his limited role. I'm reminded of Wayne Simmonds having similar numbers as a King but not getting much PP time. Then he goes to Philadelphia where his role increased and he went from 15-20 goals to 25-30 goals. Albeit I don't think Sharangovich would crack many PP1 units around the league. But he'd get a small bump if he were to get PP2 time.

And one thing I like to point out with Sharangovich is that he and his wife just had their first kid a few months back. Taking a step off the ice, that'll change things to the say least.

Zetterlund's offense definitely fizzled out after getting 2RW time. He's probably better suited as a bottom six guy.

 

[Forge]

Will be disappointed if the Devils don't beat this

 

[Hisch13r]

Will be disappointed if the Devils don't beat this

I think it comes down to how they value Morrow vs Holtz. If they just like Morrow more then I'm not going to go crazy to beat them.

 

[Ciao]

Vegas being included is hilarious. How could they possibly make a competitive offer compared to the rest?



Thing is he’s not really a true rental. You don’t lose him for nothing. You can flip him in the offseason

Sure. A team with no cap space gives a $10-miloion Q.O., and then has its back against the wall to move enough contracts to become cap compliant. Un unh.

Carolina has enough money coming off the books that they could make the same Q.O. without backing themselves into a corner. Bthe Leafs aren't suited for that kind of play this year.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

What is New Jersey's best offer?

I think:
Holtz/Gritsyuk (depending on who they like)
Mukhamadullin/Casey
1st
One of Foote/Bahl/Okhotyuk

Im only offering this if Meier is signing for less than people are saying he will. Not giving up all that to give him 9.5 million and possibly lose Bratt.

 

[leafsfan5]

They would have to qualify him first, and then try to move a $10-million contract.

No thanks.

Just because he's qualified doesn't mean he's making 10 million, he will be an RFA at the time of the trade

And like I outlined before, I don't think his QO is a big deal. It's not like he's a 6 million dollar player who isn't worth close to 10. He can realistically command 8-9 million on a longterm extension. If a team gives him 9 million x 8 years and structures it to have 11 million in year 1 is he really going to turn that down?

 

[Forge]

I think it comes down to how they value Morrow vs Holtz. If they just like Morrow more then I'm not going to go crazy to beat them.

He had the Devils doubling back for Crouse and Vejmelka. No Timo would suck, but I've mentioned before that I thought I'd make a move on Crouse at this point.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Agreed with your entire post, but this part. Willie was coming off a 20 goal/60 point season, almost identical to his 2nd season and at the time I believe the thinking was he should be getting low/mid 6s on a longer-term deal, or at least the just-shy of $7M he signed for was on the high side.

It also didn't help that his father's influence on his contract wasn't encouraging:

"In his 16 NHL seasons, Michael Nylander played for seven teams, including a second go-round with the Washington Capitals. The common thread running through every stop was contentious contract negotiations. "

Nylander negotiations boil down to what Papa wants

One consistent signal beaming from the Nylander camp since contract negotiations started last summer is that the restricted free agent’s father is the one calling the shots

www.theglobeandmail.com

And so there was some fear that "junior" would play hard ball just like his dad did, and look what happened. Dubas went way above and beyond the call to get him signed - way more than any GM should have to for a player that was not the franchise player, or even a star.

So that's why I pointed out that between Timo and Nylander, even if Willie is considered the better talent, Timo is a big, skilled forward the Leafs could use in their top 6 and will likely be the easier negotiation and possibly at a cheaper cap hit. that's if he wants to stay.

How did he go above the call to sign him? The deal that got signed was the same one on the table in September, iirc the sticking point was that Nylander was worried signing a cheap deal would make him trade bait to some small market team he had no control in choosing. He can get an NTC on the upcoming contract so that won’t be a roadblock this time.

 

[Forge]

Is there a reason he can’t stay in the lineup? Seems a bit concerning the coaching staff doesn’t even trust him with consistent minutes yet he’s the awesome prospect at the center of the deal?

Part of it, honestly, is just Ruff.

But lets be real...Holtz has some warts in his game. Okay to admit. His offensive game can be electric. He's a tremendous passer, and everyone knows about the shot. But his pace probably isn't where it needs to be for the Devils, and sure, off puck he can float. Let's just put it out there.

He's a guy that probably needs to be in the top 6 with a play driving center and he would look fine. I thought he looked solid in the preseason with Jack and Palat (they called it the H20 line) and the regular season happened and he was thrown into the bottom six with Haula and Tatar. The latter is a decent offensive winger still, but Haula has just been an offensive black hole this year. He scored a goal on the power play and the next game was relegated to sub 10 minutes of ice time and was out of the lineup by game three. This is largely been his situation with Ruff and I Don't know how you get the best of him offensively like that. That really is putting him in a situation where given his abilities, style, etc....he's probably not going to do well.

It seems like Ruff is just unwilling to let him ride through some of the flaws in his game, and given where the Devils are standings wise, I get it. It just puts Holtz in a really weird spot. He was a PPG in the AHL at 19 years old, so we already know what he's doing there. So just a really weird year.

 

[Ciao]

Just because he's qualified doesn't mean he's making 10 million, he will be an RFA at the time of the trade

And like I outlined before, I don't think his QO is a big deal. It's not like he's a 6 million dollar player who isn't worth close to 10. He can realistically command 8-9 million on a longterm extension. If a team gives him 9 million x 8 years and structures it to have 11 million in year 1 is he really going to turn that down?

The Leafs would be boxed into a corner with no leverage. Been there, done that. Pass.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

If it's between a Morrow-based package and a Holtz-based package, I think my preference would be Morrow. The Sharks have very little in way of promising blue line prospects and wingers aren't terribly difficult to come by but it also depends on the other particulars in each package.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Will be disappointed if the Devils don't beat this

Strip away the Devils’ big 2 prospects, who won’t be made available here, and their asset pool isn’t much different than that of other teams. The 1st will be low moving forward, presumably. Holtz vs Morrow vs Knies is close enough that it probably comes down to organizational preference; Top 10 pedigree vs premium position vs premium playstyle. The prospects underneath are more valuable for NHL roster depth than trades.

 

[leafsfan5]

The Leafs would be boxed into a corner with no leverage. Been there, done that. Pass.

I disagree, I don't think they'll be that screwed in all honesty. The reason is that Meier is so good teams will pay to trade for him regardless

A similar case happened in the summer where the Wild needed to move Fiala and still got a decent package

 

[Stewie Griffin]

It would be hard for Devils to top Morrow + Drury + 1st + 2nd if that is a legit offer come deadline day.

I think it would take Holtz + Casey + 1st and that would be a lot.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Strip away the Devils’ big 2 prospects, who won’t be made available here, and their asset pool isn’t much different than that of other teams. The 1st will be low moving forward, presumably. Holtz vs Morrow vs Knies is close enough that it probably comes down to organizational preference; Top 10 pedigree vs premium position vs premium playstyle. The prospects underneath are more valuable for NHL roster depth than trades.

Mercer beats out Morrow and Knies.

 

[StorminSnvechnAho]

It would be hard for Devils to top Morrow + Drury + 1st + 2nd if that is a legit offer come deadline day.

I think it would take Holtz + Casey + 1st and that would be a lot.

It should be interesting, Morrow isn't someone the Canes want to part with IMO but I think they might go all in this season.
The Metropolitan is an arms race the Canes can qualify him as well, I'd go for that just to keep him from NJ.

 

[Forge]

Strip away the Devils’ big 2 prospects, who won’t be made available here, and their asset pool isn’t much different than that of other teams. The 1st will be low moving forward, presumably. Holtz vs Morrow vs Knies is close enough that it probably comes down to organizational preference; Top 10 pedigree vs premium position vs premium playstyle. The prospects underneath are more valuable for NHL roster depth than trades.

I think that they can beat the Drury part of that.

But a lot could certainly come down to just preferring Morrow to Holtz. I mean, positionally, Morrow is going to be much preferred, I would imagine.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Mercer beats out Morrow and Knies.

If NJ/CAR offer Mercer of Jarvis they will no doubtly win Meier but no one suspects that to be the case unless they get real desperate.

The fact they are in the same division and the other top dog in their division who went on a playoff run last year just added Tarasenko could make them desperate to acquire Timo.