Blue Jays Discussion: Almost time for real baseball

[Bad News Benning]

I think it should be noted that the easiest positions to upgrade (and platoon) between now and the deadline is 1b and lf. I'm not too worried about it as I think it can be easily addressed if the current starters flop.

I'm more worried about players staying healthy. We don't have a ton of young players ready to step in. Most of our good young prospects are a year or two away from contributing.

 

[zeke]

Thole accounts for an entire 4.7% of bench PA's for that stat. Which isn't to say he didn't suck or anything like that.

The big driver last year was that 10% of your bench PA's went to Ryan Goins and his amazing .235 bench OPS. And our three catchers (Martin/Navarro/Thole) combined for 33 PA's (around 15% of total) of sub-.450 OPS as well

wait - that stat is for pinch hitters only?

 

[Kurtz]

wait - that stat is for pinch hitters only?

The appropriate reaction would be: wait - we used Thole as a pinch-hitter last year???

 

[theaub]

wait - that stat is for pinch hitters only?

Yeah - if you go to the link and click on TOR you can see the full breakdown.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Yeah - if you go to the link and click on TOR you can see the full breakdown.

It's all mid game replacements no? So if a guy came in for defense in the 6th and got a plate appearance that counts.

But it still excludes all the starts which makes up the majority of a bench players offensive impact on the team. When they start to give others time off.

 

[ShaneFalco]

The appropriate reaction would be: wait - we used Thole as a pinch-hitter last year???

Exactly

But I will miss the big wad of chew he used to sport

 

[phillipmike]

1 of CBS Sports experts predict the Jays making the playoffs but he predicted they lose in the WC game to Houston.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2...rld-series-division-winner-award-predictions/

7th in the MLB power ranking:

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/m...l-the-2017-regular-season-be-too-predictable/

Only 3 Jays make their top 100 list; Donaldson, Sanchez and Tulo.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/m...-machado-ready-to-make-the-next-jump-to-no-1/

6 of 54 FG experts predict the Jays to win the Division, 18 predict the 1st WC spot, 9 predict the 2nd. 33 of the 54 predict the Jays in the playoffs.

Stroman gets 2 votes for the CY Young - Sanchez gets 1. Donaldson gets none for MVP

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-2017-staff-predictions/

 

[phillipmike]

Sanspo.com reports that Munenori Kawasaki has signed with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks of Japan's Pacific League.

Kawasaki surely could have netted a minor league deal somewhere if he wanted, but he probable got more money and a better opportunity to return to his native Japan. The 35-year-old batted .237/.320/.289 across parts of five season in the majors.

 

[The Nemesis]

Sanspo.com reports that Munenori Kawasaki has signed with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks of Japan's Pacific League.

Buck will like that. He loves saying "Fukuoka"

 

[inthe6ix]

So who goes.. Goins or Upton??

I'd rather we keep Upton, but with question marks around Travis, you gotta keep Ryan.

Eh?

 

[ShaneFalco]

So who goes.. Goins or Upton??

I'd rather we keep Upton, but with question marks around Travis, you gotta keep Ryan.

Eh?

I'd probably go with Zeke
I'm not a fan of Upton, but I think he has more upside

I like Goins, but Barney is the better player
Pearce can play 2nd too I believe

 

[phillipmike]

Personally i would keep both.. I think both are more useful to the team than the expected 7th reliever - Tepera. He pitched in 20 games last season; 16 of those games he enter with the team up 3 runs or more or down 3 runs or more (13 of those were 4 or more either way) so usually when the game is out of hand. Of the remaining 4 he pitched in the 13th inning when we had little choice and the 11th in another. The other two times were in the 8th inning when we were down 1 and 2 runs respectively - so we only really used him twice last year in a position where he could make a difference on this team - not worth losing Goins for in my opinion as Tepera has options.

Someone is bound to get hurt; JD, Travis, Bautista, Upton, Carrera, and Pearce all battled some type of injury. Goins' defense can be very useful. Heck if you need someone in mop up duty then call on Ryan Goins... if you are losing then you have nothing to lose. He can give you an 88 mph fastball.

Comes down to what you value more Tepera for 2-5 appearances or losing Ryan Goins for nothing. Another way to put it is Goins' elite defense as a reserve or Tepera for 5 or less noteworthy innings.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Good points!

 

[Canada4Gold]

Personally i would keep both.. I think both are more useful to the team than the expected 7th reliever - Tepera. He pitched in 20 games last season; 16 of those games he enter with the team up 3 runs or more or down 3 runs or more (13 of those were 4 or more either way) so usually when the game is out of hand. Of the remaining 4 he pitched in the 13th inning when we had little choice and the 11th in another. The other two times were in the 8th inning when we were down 1 and 2 runs respectively - so we only really used him twice last year in a position where he could make a difference on this team - not worth losing Goins for in my opinion as Tepera has options.

Someone is bound to get hurt; JD, Travis, Bautista, Upton, Carrera, and Pearce all battled some type of injury. Goins' defense can be very useful. Heck if you need someone in mop up duty then call on Ryan Goins... if you are losing then you have nothing to lose. He can give you an 88 mph fastball.

I don't really think there's much of any chance they go to a 6 man pen? Has anyone used a 6 man pen in recent memory? Like the only chance it happens if for like a week and then they call the 7th guy back up and try to sneak someone through waivers then. In the past we've often liked using 8 man pens, so I don't think we suddenly go to 6.

We have the rotation capable of going long innings(most IP by starters last year) to make it manageable, but I don't think they do it. If you're not going to use Tepera in any kind of situation than bring a different 7th guy.

There also is value to using guys in mop up spots as well. Doesn't really matter who it is at that point as long as it's someone. If you only bring 6 then you're using your good guys in those spots, and everytime you do that, you're possibly preventing them being available for the next game.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I think the assumption that Ryan Goins (a man who has trouble hitting his weight, and who's only tools are downward trending) would get claimed if out righted to Triple-A is a little bit of a stretch. But the media has subscribed to it, and chalked it up as a story, so let's stress about the 26th man on the roster.

My guess is he slides right on through waivers, and lives out the rest of his controlled years in Buffalo.

 

[phillipmike]

I dont expect it to happen or think it is realistic just that all i am saying is i value Goins defense more than the 5 noteworthy innings Tepera would bring over the course of the season let alone the 1st month of the season where i am sure him and Loup will be yo-yoing back a forth or when Sparkman is ready.

Mop up duty? I would throw Goins in. If push came to shove. Still have Bolsinger in the pen who is practically a starter so he can last as long as you need him.

 

[Kurtz]

Is anyone concerned with Osuna's velocity being down this spring? If he's not himself, we're in deep, deep trouble in the pen since our other high leverage options have big question marks.

And yeah, as lovely as it would be to have Goins keeping Darwin company on the bench, we're more likely to find the extra reliever slot quite a bit more useful, especially given that the BP is, imo, by far the biggest question mark right now.

 

[Kurtz]

I think the assumption that Ryan Goins (a man who has trouble hitting his weight, and who's only tools are downward trending) would get claimed if out righted to Triple-A is a little bit of a stretch. But the media has subscribed to it, and chalked it up as a story, so let's stress about the 26th man on the roster.

My guess is he slides right on through waivers, and lives out the rest of his controlled years in Buffalo.

Yes, in a league where a Darwin Barney can be had virtually for free, there's no sense in living in fear of Goins being claimed.

However, I do think we'll be calling him up before the rosters even expand in the fall, since the odds of both Tulo and Travis avoiding DL for the full year are remarkably low.

 

[inthe6ix]

I think the assumption that Ryan Goins (a man who has trouble hitting his weight, and who's only tools are downward trending) would get claimed if out righted to Triple-A is a little bit of a stretch. But the media has subscribed to it, and chalked it up as a story, so let's stress about the 26th man on the roster.

My guess is he slides right on through waivers, and lives out the rest of his controlled years in Buffalo.

If Kawasaki found work before being jettisoned to Nippon, you can be sure Goins will be claimed.

But if somehow we can miraculously keep them both and drop Tepera going to a 11-man staff, I would be down for that.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I dont expect it to happen or think it is realistic just that all i am saying is i value Goins defense more than the 5 noteworthy innings Tepera would bring over the course of the season let alone the 1st month of the season where i am sure him and Loup will be yo-yoing back a forth or when Sparkman is ready.

Mop up duty? I would throw Goins in. If push came to shove. Still have Bolsinger in the pen who is practically a starter so he can last as long as you need him.

Take a look at those defensive metrics. He's about to be as useful as a dry wet-nap.

Sell your shares.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Is anyone concerned with Osuna's velocity being down this spring? If he's not himself, we're in deep, deep trouble in the pen since our other high leverage options have big question marks.

And yeah, as lovely as it would be to have Goins keeping Darwin company on the bench, we're more likely to find the extra reliever slot quite a bit more useful, especially given that the BP is, imo, by far the biggest question mark right now.

They had him at 92-94, and that was with reports that he was suffering from a stiff neck. They then turned the gun off (or said it was broken) for his next appearance. He performed well in that appearance (striking out one, in a 8 pitch inning IIRC). He's been at 94 with his sinker in the past in April. I wouldn't panic unless it persists.

If he's throwing 92\93 next week, then I will start expressing concern.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I dont expect it to happen or think it is realistic just that all i am saying is i value Goins defense more than the 5 noteworthy innings Tepera would bring over the course of the season let alone the 1st month of the season where i am sure him and Loup will be yo-yoing back a forth or when Sparkman is ready.

Mop up duty? I would throw Goins in. If push came to shove. Still have Bolsinger in the pen who is practically a starter so he can last as long as you need him.

Nobody in the entire league would put a position player in to pitch in the 9th or earlier in a game they're winning or a game they're losing by 5 or less(and probably 8 or less)

So if that's you plan then you might want to re-calculate your definition of mop up innings and probably realize that most of Tepera's appeareances came in situations Goins would never pitch in.

So if you're keeping Goins then you're planning on using those 4-6 guys more often than you currently would, which in turn could lead to overusing your 1-3 guys if those 4-6 guys aren't available because of it.

Everyone carries a 7th guy who almost never pitching late in close games. And Goins is not worth much at all to re-think it.

 

[TF97]

In Montreal, let's hope the roof doesn't cave in because of snow. Or that a piece of the Montreal Tower doesn't break off (currently undergoing some construction). As for Goins vs Tepera, I'm on #TeamTepera

 

[Kurtz]

In Montreal, let's hope the roof doesn't cave in because of snow. Or that a piece of the Montreal Tower doesn't break off (currently undergoing some construction). As for Goins vs Tepera, I'm on #TeamTepera

Could we please call it #Team7BullpenArms? I know it doesn't quite roll off the tongue, but I'd desperately wish to avoid being on #TeamTepera

 

[Eyedea]

Tepera was way better over the small sample last season. Stuff actually translated, with the cutter (actually a hard slider?) being a legitimate out pitch.