Blue Jays Discussion: Almost time for real baseball

[dredeye]

Hutch being optioned to AAA after a bad spring. He has the stuff to be a big league pitcher. Not sure what happened to him but I think his confidence is shattered. If any team can get him straightened out though it has to be the Pirates

 

[dredeye]

6 years 49 million for Odor with a club option for another year.

 

[doorman]

Even then... ugh.

Try to get Goins through to Buffalo. If he makes it through, great! If he doesn't, whatever!

The situation will play itself out & I think Upton adds dimensions Goins doesn't, like pinch running. It gets cloudier if they sign Pagan if they're even actually in on him.

 

[Discoverer]

The situation will play itself out & I think Upton adds dimensions Goins doesn't, like pinch running. It gets cloudier if they sign Pagan if they're even actually in on him.

To me, Pagan actually clears up some of the cloudiness. Pagan matches up nicely with Upton (or even Zeke, if you REALLY want to) in a platoon, whereas right now you just have a bunch of guys battling it out who all have the same weakness (hitting righties).

 

[ACC1224]

6 years 49 million for Odor with a club option for another year.

As my little girl says, "Odor stinks"

 

[BertCorbeau]

As my little girl says, "Odor stinks"

Smart kid

 

[Discoverer]

The money is low enough that it's probably not a bad contract, but Odor has such massive flaws that it's easy to see some huge downside there.

He's only 23, so there's room for improvement, but he's already the worst defensive 2B in the league, and defense tends to go downhill quickly.

He's an all-or-nothing hitter who can't get on base but has enough power to be a slightly-above-average bat. I'm not sure that's going to look so good when he's moved to 1B or LF.

 

[doorman]

To me, Pagan actually clears up some of the cloudiness. Pagan matches up nicely with Upton (or even Zeke, if you REALLY want to) in a platoon, whereas right now you just have a bunch of guys battling it out who all have the same weakness (hitting righties).

I actually like the idea of adding Pagan TBH. He adds more diversity to the lineup being a switch hitter, he doesn't strike out a lot and can steal a base. I more meant what does it do to Smoak as i assume Pearce slots over to first. If that happens does this added salary and eating Smoaks effect in season trade possibilities? With this being the first year of no comp for free agents some are thinking the market could be more active.

 

[zeke]

yeah what discoverer said.

 

[phillipmike]

The money is low enough that it's probably not a bad contract, but Odor has such massive flaws that it's easy to see some huge downside there.

He's only 23, so there's room for improvement, but he's already the worst defensive 2B in the league, and defense tends to go downhill quickly.

He's an all-or-nothing hitter who can't get on base but has enough power to be a slightly-above-average bat. I'm not sure that's going to look so good when he's moved to 1B or LF.

Not to mention that Odor had the WORST BB/K ration among all qualified hitters in the league.

I said it in the FG comment section; i cant remember the last time someone was the worst at his position (defensive 2B) at something and the worst in the league at another (BB:K) and get a 6 year deal the following season. Might not be a bad contract but i dont see the value in it at all. You gave a guaranteed 50M over 6 years when you had him for a guaranteed 4 years with no commitment of money (At worst i dont see those 4 years costing more than 25M - See Daniel Murphy). Just a stupid contract to sign when you didnt need to sign him.

 

[The Nemesis]

Even then... ugh.

Try to get Goins through to Buffalo. If he makes it through, great! If he doesn't, whatever!

Pretty much. We have Barney already who does Goins' job just fine with the added benefit of not being as awful with the bat. And at 29 years old, Goins is what he is (barring some one-in-a-million Bautista-esque reinvention) so there's no point in keeping him to dream on a real MLB bat suddenly materializing in his hands.

 

[phillipmike]

An interesting stat i came upon;

In 2015 the Jays had the 2nd best bench from an offensive standpoint in the AL.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/p...arams=stsub|as Sub|AL|2015|bat|AB|#split1::19

In 2016 we were 11th.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/p...arams=stsub|as Sub|AL|2016|bat|AB|#split1::19

Getting more production out of your bench should help. 2 of Pearce/Upton/Carrera, Salty, and Barney is probably better than Carrera, Smoak, Thole and Barney. Probably a trade off if we are start Smoak... shudder.

 

[theaub]

The money is low enough that it's probably not a bad contract, but Odor has such massive flaws that it's easy to see some huge downside there.

He's only 23, so there's room for improvement, but he's already the worst defensive 2B in the league, and defense tends to go downhill quickly.

He's an all-or-nothing hitter who can't get on base but has enough power to be a slightly-above-average bat. I'm not sure that's going to look so good when he's moved to 1B or LF.

Eh the defense isn't going to degrade by 30 so I don't foresee that being an issue with this contract. The key will be does Odor have the work ethic to actually get better defensively, or will he just be content to float along with the guaranteed money now and keep making 25 errors per year, If that's the case it will turn bad quickly - if not he's a 3.5-4 win player.

I don't expect the plate discipline to improve much (nor would I care if it does if he can show off plus power), but if he has the Kevin Pillar awakening one year then who knows.

An interesting stat i came upon;

In 2015 the Jays had the 2nd best bench from an offensive standpoint in the AL.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/p...arams=stsub|as Sub|AL|2015|bat|AB|#split1::19

In 2016 we were 11th.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/p...arams=stsub|as Sub|AL|2016|bat|AB|#split1::19

Getting more production out of your bench should help. 2 of Pearce/Upton/Carrera, Salty, and Barney is probably better than Carrera, Smoak, Thole and Barney. Probably a trade off if we are start Smoak... shudder.

I'd say this stat is predicated on health more than anything else though. Right now the depth looks great, but if half the team is on the DL by mid-June then the pinch hitters become terrible.

aka I went back to 2012 and we had a hilarious .520 OPS off the bench

There's probably also something to be said about having a legitimate bench pinch hitter. In 2015 Smoak/Carrera/Valencia took up about 50% of the pinch hitting. Last year no one had more than 20 PA's because Smoak was playing everyday, Carerra was in there quite a bit and Valencia was gone, so your top three in PA's were...Smoak/Barney/Goins. Not exactly murderers row.

 

[Discoverer]

Pretty much. We have Barney already who does Goins' job just fine with the added benefit of not being as awful with the bat. And at 29 years old, Goins is what he is (barring some one-in-a-million Bautista-esque reinvention) so there's no point in keeping him to dream on a real MLB bat suddenly materializing in his hands.

Exactly. The only time he's ever had an MLB-calibre bat was a two month stretch in 2015 when he just stopped using it.

 

[Muston Atthews]

Picked up Liriano with my last pick in my fantasy draft. Here's hoping him and Russ can recreate some magic.

 

[doorman]

Picked up Liriano with my last pick in my fantasy draft. Here's hoping him and Russ can recreate some magic.

I think he is going to have a huge year for us and he seemed comfortable throwing to Salty this spring too which is a huge bonus.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I'd say this stat is predicated on health more than anything else though. Right now the depth looks great, but if half the team is on the DL by mid-June then the pinch hitters become terrible.

aka I went back to 2012 and we had a hilarious .520 OPS off the bench

There's probably also something to be said about having a legitimate bench pinch hitter. In 2015 Smoak/Carrera/Valencia took up about 50% of the pinch hitting. Last year no one had more than 20 PA's because Smoak was playing everyday, Carerra was in there quite a bit and Valencia was gone, so your top three in PA's were...Smoak/Barney/Goins. Not exactly murderers row.

Yeah I'm not sure how great mid game replacement numbers would be at measuring the talent of a bench anyway. That's only half a benches job, the other half is starting some games here and there which doesn't get included, and that's the larger portion. I don't recall Thole coming in mid-game much at all last year so he's basically excluded from the calculation. When in reality he's a terrible bat part of the bench that comes into play when he starts. Not to mention when bench players do start the regulars might prop up that sub stat when they come in as replacements. And like you said health, if someone gets hurt than the replacement is pretty much removed from the calculation altogether when they start and are replaced by worse players as the subs.

Not sure there's a particular great way to measure a bench, but this wouldn't be it. You'd probably have to go through every team and decide which players were for sure a bench player and then combine their numbers, IDK. Because the games the bench players start should certainly count.

 

[Discoverer]

Eh the defense isn't going to degrade by 30 so I don't foresee that being an issue with this contract.

I'm not suggesting it's going to get a lot worse every year or anything, but I brought it up because it's unlikely to improve and it's already an issue since he's the worst defensive 2B in the league.

They signed him to a long extension to play a position he sucks at playing. I don't think he'll be a 2B when the contract is up. He shouldn't be right now.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Odor's defense is pretty awful and his K/BB ratio is downright terrible. He can hit for power and is a 2 win 2B because of it despite the other issues. But that's not something you need to sign to that contract at this point with 4 years of control left.

Power isn't valued as highly anymore, we saw it this offseason with HR or bust Chris Carter getting almost nothing. Yeah Odor doesn't K as much as Carter, but still. The complete lack of walks, and bad defense shouldn't amount to that contract with all his arb years still to go just because he has some power. HR's are harder to come by at 2nd, but he's a bad 2nd baseman. If he played a position that he could play well(like corner OF spot maybe? IDK) the HR's wouldn't be as rare there.

 

[Discoverer]

Odor's defense is pretty awful and his K/BB ratio is downright terrible. He can hit for power and is a 2 win 2B because of it despite the other issues. But that's not something you need to sign to that contract at this point with 4 years of control left.

Power isn't valued as highly anymore, we saw it this offseason with HR or bust Chris Carter getting almost nothing. Yeah Odor doesn't K as much as Carter, but still. The complete lack of walks, and bad defense shouldn't amount to that contract with all his arb years still to go just because he has some power. HR's are harder to come by at 2nd, but he's a bad 2nd baseman. If he played a position that he could play well(like corner OF spot maybe? IDK) the HR's wouldn't be as rare there.

Yeah, considering 2017 was going to be at the league minimum, they've basically spent $49 million for five years, not six. And three of those years were going to be at arbitration prices...

I still don't think the money is all that risky because $50 million isn't a huge commitment these days, but it seems silly to me given the risk around the player himself. They're obviously betting on him, but considering there's nothing remotely resembling a recent comp for him and he has such glaring weaknesses in his game, I'm not convinced that it's a good bet, and I don't think it's one I would make.

The Jays giving Travis a $50 million contract right now would be similar, actually.

 

[zeke]

Not to mention that Odor had the WORST BB/K ration among all qualified hitters in the league.

I said it in the FG comment section; i cant remember the last time someone was the worst at his position (defensive 2B) at something and the worst in the league at another (BB:K) and get a 6 year deal the following season. Might not be a bad contract but i dont see the value in it at all. You gave a guaranteed 50M over 6 years when you had him for a guaranteed 4 years with no commitment of money (At worst i dont see those 4 years costing more than 25M - See Daniel Murphy). Just a stupid contract to sign when you didnt need to sign him.

but he punched the bad man.

 

[zeke]

An interesting stat i came upon;

In 2015 the Jays had the 2nd best bench from an offensive standpoint in the AL.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/p...arams=stsub|as Sub|AL|2015|bat|AB|#split1::19

In 2016 we were 11th.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/p...arams=stsub|as Sub|AL|2016|bat|AB|#split1::19

Getting more production out of your bench should help. 2 of Pearce/Upton/Carrera, Salty, and Barney is probably better than Carrera, Smoak, Thole and Barney. Probably a trade off if we are start Smoak... shudder.

Thole destroyed our bench production singlehandedly last year.

It was actually a pretty big deal, and why Dickey's submediocrity hurt even more than it should have.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[BertCorbeau]

Thole destroyed our bench production singlehandedly last year.

It was actually a pretty big deal, and why Dickey's submediocrity hurt even more than it should have.

Which is why I'm happy Dickey is no longer a Jay. The combined value of him and Thole wasn't worth the quality of pitching RA was giving. Thank goodness Thole is gone.

 

[theaub]

Thole destroyed our bench production singlehandedly last year.

It was actually a pretty big deal, and why Dickey's submediocrity hurt even more than it should have.

Thole accounts for an entire 4.7% of bench PA's for that stat. Which isn't to say he didn't suck or anything like that.

The big driver last year was that 10% of your bench PA's went to Ryan Goins and his amazing .235 bench OPS. And our three catchers (Martin/Navarro/Thole) combined for 33 PA's (around 15% of total) of sub-.450 OPS as well