It's clear this isn't going to go away fully until herd immunity or vaccination. Once we have community spread like this it's just going to spread even from a relatively small number of cases. Data is showing this is about 3-6 times deadlier than the flu but for healthy people with no conditions you're going to be fine. So we could be looking at an age based and risk assessed quarantine around June+ while everyone else goes out and gets exposed to reach herd immunity. Would this be better than going through a shutdown every 1-3 months in waves? Who knows. I suspect it would be. I just don't see how for instance shutting down until June then opening up for the summer and then shutting down in the fall is viable.
It's a shame that we'll never get real data out of China, and that they've booted out any journalists that won't provide the company line, because it's important to understand how reopening Wuhan impacts herd immunity and the economy. I don't buy the theory of a V or even a U shape recovery...I think it looks more like an L for a bit and works its way back up slowly.
For aged based/risk assessed, selfishly it would suck as an asthmatic haha but in reality, you're taking a big risk on imperfect data. I don't think you can effectively do that when 99.7% of the US population remains untested.
It's also going to be difficult because while this is looking like the peak in New York and it's effectively "passed" in Washington and California, there are other areas that are just starting to trend up. That is good from a supply standpoint, not great in terms of an economic standpoint.
But it most certainly will be coming back, 2 waves minimum if not 3 just from everything I've been reading. How we handle that, I don't know. How we handle that in an election year when we undoubtedly see a wave come back right before the country hits the polls? That worries me.
But one thing is for certain, this isn't a political thing, but I don't want economists giving me health advice. I want Peter Navarro, Larry Kudlow, etc. to be advising on impact, but I don't want to unnecessarily risk the lives of Americans, myself included, to try and jump start things early. To paraphrase Dr. Fauci, we don't get to make the timeline here...but we can impact it by doing the right things. If we're taking such a large exposure risk by prematurely sending people back out, I want full sign off from those that work in health, not those that work in excel sheets and board rooms.
That's why it's important to watch Singapore right now, they effectively stomped the virus out, eased up and now they're worse than before assuming the trend continues
By this..you mean..you're not going to die. Many have recovered in full, but not all. You're still going to have it, which sucks for that period in time. There has been some evidence of long term reduced lung capacity which also sucks. There has also been evidence that some who have recovered have tested positive again, which also sucks.
Just a pet peeve that we've really reduced human lives to numbers and "if you're not dead you're fine" throughout all of this.