All purpose trade/roster building thread part 12

[Joe McGrath]

$8M would be an absolute steal long-term for Hamilton. If his extension is truly that low in terms of AAV, you take that running.

With a flat cap for 3 years it’s not out of the question.

 

[Canes]

I don’t think it’s been discussed for a while, but with teams likely soon to be able to discuss new deals with 2021 UFAs-to-be as a result of an approved CBA, what do you think a Hamilton extension looks like in the pandemic environment?

Does he still possibly get Carslon $$$ ($8M) from Dundon? Or do they try to lowball him?

I can’t see it going unresolved into the start of next season. I see him being re-signed prior to the 20-21 season or shipped out...

I think the flat cap will work in our favor as there will be less potential suitors for him in the open market but if he gets there all it takes is one team. But then again, unless another team really overpays I'm not sure he leaves if we're in the same ballpark numbers wise. He probably realizes he finally has a great situation here.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

With a flat cap for 3 years it’s not out of the question.

Sure, the COVID situation makes that a possibility. I'm just saying that after the flat-cap ends (and there's certainly a possibility that it ends after 2 rather than 3 years. Friedman was IMO intentionally being lower-c conservative and looking at the worst-case scenario), that's a deal that would be looked at as one of the more team-friendly UFA extensions of the cap era.

 

[MinJaBen]

I think the flat cap will work in our favor as there will be less potential suitors for him in the open market but if he gets there all it takes is one team. But then again, unless another team really overpays I'm not sure he leaves if we're in the same ballpark numbers wise. He probably realizes he finally has a great situation here.

I could see Seattle being a big problem, and maybe the Avs as well. If he is all about the money, Seattle would be a place that we couldn't compete with, while the Avs have a favorable cap situation as well and that team would be scary as hell with Dougie on the back end.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Makes a lot of sense for both sides: Svech and Necas don't tie up those years under a tight cap, and the Canes get to push the paydays back.

It would definitely hurt if it's 3 for Svech with Aho and TT and Pesce and Skjei up in the summer of 2024. Maybe try to bridge Svech for 2 years, then lock him up before all the UFAs come open?

Edit: I like that 2 year idea a lot. There's a good amount of money that comes off the books in 2022 and 2023 (Nino and Trocheck in 2022, Jordan and Gardiner in 2023) so there should be money available for Svech even with a flat cap.

3 years for Necas would push him to 2025, so that would work better.

I like the 2 year bridge as well. 2 years 6.5 to 7 depending on how he does next year.

 

[A Star is Burns]

After/during a pandemic, any of these guys may value things differently. The trend had been moving to the shorter deals that take you just to UFA, but maybe some guys will want stability. Maybe they don't know if the big TV deal pay day will be there now, or the cap dollars. Maybe some North American players will want to be closer to home when they have the UFA choice. Or maybe they'll want the stability of the "home" they've been playing in and familiar with for years. There will likely be lots of interesting transactions for teams in the future.

I agree that $8 million for Dougie is probably a steal of a deal, but who knows how he feels? The Turbo deal seemed incredibly good at the time, and only getting better. Some guys are just happy to get it over with and happy where they are.

 

[Canes]

I could see Seattle being a big problem, and maybe the Avs as well. If he is all about the money, Seattle would be a place that we couldn't compete with, while the Avs have a favorable cap situation as well and that team would be scary as hell with Dougie on the back end.

Thankfully the Avs already have Makar with Byram on the way. Makar is going to get paid as a RFA the same offseason and Girard's new deal will have already started. They'll still being paying Erik Johnson with a NMC too. Dougie would be an expensive luxury for them.

 

[bleedgreen]

The Av’s don’t need him hypothetically. We may see them get someone big this offseason that takes them out of getting Dougie anyways.

 

[Incubajerks]

We will have to start thinking about who to protect and who not.

 

[emptyNedder]

I agree that $8 million for Dougie is probably a steal of a deal, but who knows how he feels?

Trying to look at this from a harshly objective position, anything more than $8M is an overpayment. Carlson had a 55 and 68 point season prior to signing. He also had 20 points in the Cup run in 24 games. Hamilton has yet to break 50 points. Admittedly, he was on pace for 69-70 this season, but the 20 games before the injury he had 12 points, which is back to his career production. In last year's playoffs he had 7 in 15.
Paying more than $8M is betting that Hamilton will produce for 7-8 years like he produced for only 3 months during his career. Given this front office's style, I don't see them making that bet. Also, at some point having Hamilton for, say, $8.5M for 7 years will mean tough decisions on the other players that have been mentioned.

Of course, if a deal is delayed and Hamilton puts up 70 points in 20-21, then $8M is a good deal.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Trying to look at this from a harshly objective position, anything more than $8M is an overpayment. Carlson had a 55 and 68 point season prior to signing. He also had 20 points in the Cup run in 24 games. Hamilton has yet to break 50 points. Admittedly, he was on pace for 69-70 this season, but the 20 games before the injury he had 12 points, which is back to his career production. In last year's playoffs he had 7 in 15.
Paying more than $8M is betting that Hamilton will produce for 7-8 years like he produced for only 3 months during his career. Given this front office's style, I don't see them making that bet. Also, at some point having Hamilton for, say, $8.5M for 7 years will mean tough decisions on the other players that have been mentioned.

Of course, if a deal is delayed and Hamilton puts up 70 points in 20-21, then $8M is a good deal.

A couple of things that are at play there. Carlson signed that under a cap that was going to be I think $75 million. Even with the flat cap, it's higher now. Also, look at Trouba's deal last year, and I'd take Dougie every day of the week over him. He can get more if he wants it, pending how the flat cap affects things.

Carlson didn't make it to UFA, but if he had, I imagine he could have gotten more per year, but he chose to take the 8 year deal with the team he just won the Cup with. As I mentioned, Dougie may be comfortable here and take a deal like Carlson's, but we just don't know.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

A couple of things that are at play there. Carlson signed that under a cap that was going to be I think $75 million. Even with the flat cap, it's higher now. Also, look at Trouba's deal last year, and I'd take Dougie every day of the week over him. He can get more if he wants it, pending how the flat cap affects things.

Carlson didn't make it to UFA, but if he had, I imagine he could have gotten more per year, but he chose to take the 8 year deal with the team he just won the Cup with. As I mentioned, Dougie may be comfortable here and take a deal like Carlson's, but we just don't know.

Carlson signed before last season at about 10% of the cap (79.5). So a similar deal would be 8.2 AAV for Dougie.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Carlson signed before last season at about 10% of the cap (79.5). So a similar deal would be 8.2 AAV for Dougie.

He signed after the Caps won the Cup on June 25, 2018 (after the 2017-18 season). He did not sign last off season. This year is the second year of his deal. Both Googled the signing press release and checked Cap Friendly. They list him as 10.06% of the ceiling when signed.

Trouba, who signed before last year on July 19, 2019 for $8 million per, is listed at 9.82% of the cap ceiling when signed.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

He signed after the Caps won the Cup on June 25, 2018 (after the 2017-18 season). He did not sign last off season. This year is the second year of his deal. Both Googled the signing press release and checked Cap Friendly. They list him as 10.06% of the ceiling when signed.

Trouba, who signed before last year on July 19, 2019 for $8 million per, is listed at 9.82% of the cap ceiling when signed.

I said before last season which is also after the 17-18 season so....

he also signed after the cap ceiling determination of the 18-19 season of 79.5 million which we can reasonably assume the GMs and PA knew the outcome well before the official announcement. It would have factored in the negotiations.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I said before last season which is also after the 17-18 season so....

he also signed after the cap ceiling determination of the 18-19 season of 79.5 million which we can reasonably assume the GMs and PA knew the outcome well before the official announcement. It would have factored in the negotiations.

Fair enough. My interpretation was incorrect since we are talking about an off season signing essentially, I took it as before the season that is technically still current, but kinda isn't for the discussion.

Still, I'd look at what Trouba got last year and say Dougie can easily get more if he chooses, unless the flat cap just destroys things. And it might. I laid out why Carlson may not have pushed for more. His team won a Cup, he'd been only with that team, and his team was in a bit of a cap crunch and he probably took a smaller amount than the open market would provide. Maybe we'll get lucky and Dougie's unearned reputation hinders his market and hinders his desire to leave. We shall see. I think under normal circumstances, he'd be able to push $9 million at least, which is why I see $8 as a solid outcome.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Fair enough. My interpretation was incorrect since we are talking about an off season signing essentially, I took it as before the season that is technically still current, but kinda isn't for the discussion.

Still, I'd look at what Trouba got last year and say Dougie can easily get more if he chooses, unless the flat cap just destroys things. And it might. I laid out why Carlson may not have pushed for more. His team won a Cup, he'd been only with that team, and his team was in a bit of a cap crunch and he probably took a smaller amount than the open market would provide. Maybe we'll get lucky and Dougie's unearned reputation hinders his market and hinders his desire to leave. We shall see. I think under normal circumstances, he'd be able to push $9 million at least, which is why I see $8 as a solid outcome.

Carlson after the 17-18 season and Dougie post this season have a point per game rate of down to the hundredths place close of .54.
Trouba was a .6 last season and that is what got him overpaid.

Trouba argument doesnt help Dougie as he had a 50 point season 3 season's ago followed by 44 and then 39 and now an injury.

I think the mgmt team will shoot for another around 7 million per but Dougie's squad asking about 9 with the argument Dougie would have had a monster season 70 point season without the injury
I think they both settle somewhere around 8. 8.2 is the Carlson mark and may go up to 8.5 during a normal cap time. I think this cap situation, Dougie's understanding of where we will be cap wise next off-season, and cost of living adjustment will get him down to the 8-8.2 mark.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Carlson after the 17-18 season and Dougie post this season have a point per game rate of down to the hundredths place close of .54.
Trouba was a .6 last season and that is what got him overpaid.

Trouba argument doesnt help Dougie as he had a 50 point season 3 season's ago followed by 44 and then 39 and now an injury.

I think the mgmt team will shoot for another around 7 million per but Dougie's squad asking about 9 with the argument Dougie would have had a monster season 70 point season without the injury
I think they both settle somewhere around 8. 8.2 is the Carlson mark and may go up to 8.5 during a normal cap time. I think this cap situation, Dougie's understanding of where we will be cap wise next off-season, and cost of living adjustment will get him down to the 8-8.2 mark.

I hope that's right. Like I said, I'm happy enough in that range. I still believe he can move on and get more if he chooses.

 

[Canes]

The thing with Carlson is that he already got a Cup so he didn't have to go chasing one and he has been with the Capitals his whole career. He left some money on the table to go back to Washington. I have no doubt he could have gotten 10+ AAV on the open market.

 

[spockBokk]

Interesting take on Hamilton that just popped up today:

 

[AD Skinner]

Interesting take on Hamilton that just popped up today:

Wonder what that dude who was posting here shitting on dougie all during the playoffs last year would think of this article

 

[MinJaBen]

Interesting take on Hamilton that just popped up today:

Take a look at who shows up on his worst contract value list.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Take a look at who shows up on his worst contract value list.

Its really crazy how much this management team cares about value and advanced analytics that we traded a 1st rounder for a top 5 worst contract in the league. Makes me further hate that trade.

 

[A Star is Burns]

On the bright side, we received a former first rounder for a contract deemed worse.

I'll still give Skjei a chance to see how he fits in. There was certainly some good and bad. Not impossible it turns out to be a mistake though.

They don't appear to be afraid to fix mistakes in creative ways at least.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Its really crazy how much this management team cares about value and advanced analytics that we traded a 1st rounder for a top 5 worst contract in the league. Makes me further hate that trade.

I think that it's very possible that the Canes believe that Skjei's issue was system-oriented. He has all of the tools to be a great defenseman, especially with his skating. Rangers are a terrible puck-possession club in general, and it very well could've affected Trouba's analytics in his 1st year there, as well. Their best Corsi player this season, Adam Fox, only had a 51% even-strength Corsi. Joel Edmundson, our worst Corsi guy, has a 50.5% Corsi at even-strength, just to give you an idea about how bad the Rangers are in that department. Rangers, in general, are saved by Panarin and Zibanejad's super-elite shooting percentages and elite goaltending.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

With a flat cap for 3 years it’s not out of the question.

So of course they'll offer him 6 mil aav with no signing bonuses or trade protection.

"He wanted too much"