All Purpose PK Subban Discussion Thread Part 2

[Gh24]

That's terrible asset management, IMHO.

We can deal Subban for whatever value or we can hold on to Subban and let him be that value. He's good, he knows the team, he wants to play here.

We keep talking about how we're gonna lose one of our top4 d one way or another. We can protect 7 forwards, not lose any of Josi, Ekholm or Fabbro and still have four top4 defensemen in the team after the expansion.

I understand the standpoint of trading from a position of strength for some offensive help, but if we can sign Duchene, we can hold on to that strength while we've updated our offense. Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't mind us trading Subban this summer for whatever there is; Kessel, Voracek, Nylander, futures, whatever. I just don't agree with holding on to him being terrible asset management.

 

[triggrman]

Or we can trade him for a top center, then protect that center

Josi, Ekholm, Fabbro, Forsberg, Arvidsson, Johansen, and then who? I mean, right now, I'm no real concerned about the expansion draft, we don't have enough talent to really worry about it. What I do worry about is keeping the same players and expecting different results.

 

[Gh24]

Maybe holding on to Subban is more valuable than whatever crap offer Poile gets for him. I'm not sure if I believe this myself, but it's none the less one possibility.

 

[triggrman]

Maybe holding on to Subban is more valuable than whatever crap offer Poile gets for him. I'm not sure if I believe this myself, but it's none the less one possibility.

If Subban has value why would it be a crap offer? Because fans on HF say so?

 

[Gh24]

If Subban has value why would it be a crap offer? Because fans on HF say so?

I know this board can be as far off as our PP this season, just throwing that out. Subban carries a hefty cap hit, which obviously limits options.

My point was, if he doesn't have enough value to the teams that could trade for him, they're not gonna pay what his value would be in a vacuum.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I know this board can be as far off as our PP this season, just throwing that out. Subban carries a hefty cap hit, which obviously limits options.

My point was, if he doesn't have enough value to the teams that could trade for him, they're not gonna pay what his value would be in a vacuum.

I think the Subban file holds a lot of extra question marks. A Subban trade is more of a mystery box to us. His salary is one tangible thing we do know will be off-putting for teams. But even aside from that he tends to be a hot-button personality who stuffy hockey people don't seem to like, or seem to view as a potential distraction at best. That may also limit his market. And then he just had a terrible season. But wait, how much of that can be excused by injury? And wait again, just what was that injury? Is it a chronic back thing which might haunt him the rest of his days? Mysteries and question marks.

The market could boom or bust on Subban and I have no idea which way it would go. However the one thing I took away from April is that I absolutely would not undersell Subban. He was once again our best skater in the playoffs, he showed us his more usual form again, at last, and while so many other elements of the team weren't functioning, it still reminded me how important he could be to our fortunes if everything else did get fixed as well. So if the market is not strong on him, then trading him for some mediocre futures and a band-aid primarily to create cap space would be a bad move in my opinion. Sell high or keep him. We have other contracts attached to players with less upside that we should look to move first if creating cap space was the main driver.

 

[triggrman]

I watched a different Subban in the playoffs, I guess.

He wasn't anything special and I still say Josi and Ekholm were better despite Ekholm's penalties.

 

[LCPreds]

Ellis's contract kicks in this coming season.
The Benn play sticks out to me as well as the 3rd goal in the blowout game in regards to Ellis's play. The 3rd goal he left too much of a gap to let the winger take an unimpeded shot at Rinne, which allowed a juicy rebound. If his gap is smaller, the ability to get off that accurate a shot is minimized and it probably stays 2-0 at that point.

Semantics on the timing I guess. I'm calling it next season since we're still in the 2018-19 season (well, some teams are...).

And definitely not trying to say Ellis played well in the Dallas series. He didn't and needs to figure out why.

 

[LCPreds]

Just reposting as I would like to have an understanding of how Josi and Ek could be considered better than Subban in the Dallas series. I'm admittedly biased as this article summarized what I felt I saw with my eyes. I have not attempted to fact that for the same reason and I have yet to see any type of in depth rebuttal.

Autopsy: How The Predators Lost The War

No one played like Subban. He had the best on-ice stats of any defender while starting in the defensive zone more than any of his peers. His goal share was bad with four scored and seven against, but his expected goals was quite literally the opposite, 7.13 for and 4.24 against. This is easily explained though, as he faced the toughest competition of anyone on the club.

From my personal stats tracked, Subban excited the zone with possession like a machine. His passing ability was on full display and it didn’t disappoint. If you think he was part of the problem, please go back and re-watch the series.

Josi and Ellis had terrible series, they faced the second line for the majority of the series. No disrespect to Roope Hintz and Jamie Benn, but I’d much rather face them than Tyler Seguin and Alex Radulov, who were both held to almost nothing when Subban and Ekholm were on the ice. Josi and Ellis were both held to sub 50% on ice numbers despite starting 59.49% of shifts in the offensive zone. Ellis might as well played in the defensive zone without a stick because he couldn’t exit the zone to save his life, meanwhile, Josi barely exited the zone 60% of the time, and that’s including dump outs.

 

[triggrman]

I think you are biased because you're a huge PK fan. I'm a preds fan before anything but I do have so biased against PK, I don't like his on the ice antics, I don't like his speed, and I hate his turnovers. I think defensively, Ekholm carries that paring, I think Subban was beating wide a number of times. I think he had some of his typical brain fart plays that ended up on the back of the net, I think on some, Ekholm bailed him out. I still think he's elite, but I'd take Josi and Ekholm both over him. Josi is just a better player and Ekholm is close enough that his contract pushes him over. I know Josi has just as many turnovers as Subban, but Josi's don't seem to be in as critical of times in higher danger areas of the ice. Subban wants to skate the puck out when he's the last man back, and most of the time he seems to get away with it, until he doesn't.

I think Ellis and Josi are a terrible mix of talent. Josi is the best skating defenseman on the team, and it's not close, but he's most effective with the puck on his stick driving offense.

Ellis thinks he's Josi, so he does the same but doesn't have the speed to get back like Josi. I think Ellis tries to hold the point too much and is one on one a below average defender. He seemed to want to be the guy just blocking shots instead of preventing chances.

 

[Armourboy]

Yall watched a different series than me if you thought Subban was bad. Ekholm got better as the series went on but those first few games he was pretty rough. Josi I would say was better than the previous playoffs but wouldn't have called him special either. Granted he also had Ellis, who was freaking garbage.

 

[triggrman]

I never said bad, I said Josi was better, and I still think that. I thought Josi was our best player period.


Ellis on the other hand was terrible.

 

[triggrman]

I guess my only real issue was the "once again our best skater in the playoffs" comment.

I don't think he's ever been our best player, even in 17.

 

[LCPreds]

I think you are biased because you're a huge PK fan. I'm a preds fan before anything but I do have so biased against PK, I don't like his on the ice antics, I don't like his speed, and I hate his turnovers.

I am a huge PK fan because I like his off the ice personality and he's a great player. Not sure how that translates into being/not being a Preds fan first as he was proven statistically to be our best defender in the article I shared. Can't turn the puck over if you don't carry it (Ek) and apparently he was starting quite frequently in the d zone against the top line and still successfully handled the puck a lot better than Josi if you believe the stats shared in the article.

He's not fast.

 

[Armourboy]

I guess my only real issue was the "once again our best skater in the playoffs" comment.

I don't think he's ever been our best player, even in 17.

I dont know, when you consider how bad the forwards were and then think about some of the D as well, he probably wasn't far from it

 

[Pred303]

subban played well the first two games, and then was mediocre at best the last 4 except in subban defenders eyes. please trade this guy and get a forward/center with skill with the 9 mil. end the never ending drama that swirls around him, both with the love him/hate him fanbase and probably in the locker room.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Yall watched a different series than me if you thought Subban was bad. Ekholm got better as the series went on but those first few games he was pretty rough. Josi I would say was better than the previous playoffs but wouldn't have called him special either. Granted he also had Ellis, who was freaking garbage.

That's pretty much what my eyes saw too. Ekholm got more flak from some of those untimely penalty calls - but some of those were pretty weak calls iirc, and I'm not sure Ekholm can ever be "bad" per se - he plays his position well and is far less likely to take risks than the other 3.

 

[LCPreds]

I’m pretty sure bothering to even discuss Subban is like trying to discuss politics. Everyone is set in their opinion and will never change it. Stats/facts are irrelevant.

 

[triggrman]

Because stats when measuring defense aren't facts not even close yet

 

[LCPreds]

Because stats when measuring defense aren't facts not even close yet

The article also included stats measuring the obvious. Where PK seems to get blasted for turning the puck over too often for example is easily disputed in the numbers. But when showing zone starts, relative competition, and successful zone exits, that seems to be ignored. Are those not observable/measurable yet?

 

[triggrman]

Zone exits yes. Zone starts measure the pairing not the individual. Relative competition is a shot based flawed stat.

If I could take one of their forwards I’m taking Benn

 

[Jumptheshark]

As an outsider I am amused at how many non preds fans are thinking you guys will just give PK away for cents on the buck.

You guys have a smart GM and if he trades PK he will get a good return

 

[Curufinwe]

I think the Subban file holds a lot of extra question marks. A Subban trade is more of a mystery box to us. His salary is one tangible thing we do know will be off-putting for teams. But even aside from that he tends to be a hot-button personality who stuffy hockey people don't seem to like, or seem to view as a potential distraction at best. That may also limit his market. And then he just had a terrible season. But wait, how much of that can be excused by injury? And wait again, just what was that injury? Is it a chronic back thing which might haunt him the rest of his days? Mysteries and question marks.

I was hoping someone here would have the answers to these questions.

Subban's contract and personality don't worry me at all, just his health.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I was hoping someone here would have the answers to these questions.

Subban's contract and personality don't worry me at all, just his health.

I don't think I've simply missed some press release about his injury. Instead, it seems like it has been shrouded in secrecy. Well, all injuries seem to be to some extent in the modern NHL. But then once the season is over usually it all comes out. Even if it's just players giving excuses for what went wrong. Somehow you find out what was up. But with Subban I don't feel like we ever got anything from the team or from Subban. Which feeds my worry about it being something chronic. If he had a discrete injury that bothered him out of the gate, then shut him down for a bit, then healed up and was all good by March/April, I'd have expected to hear about how it excused his mostly-miserable season. But when instead it stays a mystery...

It is purely speculation, but I'd be guessing it is something like a herniated disc. Not bad enough that anybody was looking at surgical options, but bad enough that it made him look like he was skating in molasses most of the year.

 

[GoldOnGold]

I don't think I've simply missed some press release about his injury. Instead, it seems like it has been shrouded in secrecy. Well, all injuries seem to be to some extent in the modern NHL. But then once the season is over usually it all comes out. Even if it's just players giving excuses for what went wrong. Somehow you find out what was up. But with Subban I don't feel like we ever got anything from the team or from Subban. Which feeds my worry about it being something chronic. If he had a discrete injury that bothered him out of the gate, then shut him down for a bit, then healed up and was all good by March/April, I'd have expected to hear about how it excused his mostly-miserable season. But when instead it stays a mystery...

It is purely speculation, but I'd be guessing it is something like a herniated disc. Not bad enough that anybody was looking at surgical options, but bad enough that it made him look like he was skating in molasses most of the year.

The Preds never tell us anything about anybody's injury. I think the first we heard any specifics about Turris' injury was from the broadcast of an opposing team.