All Purpose PK Subban Discussion Thread Part 2

[Porter Stoutheart]

Hear me out with this scenario...

Admittedly, for this hypothetical trade to go through, the stars will have to perfectly align. Poile will have to have a strong indication that Duchene will sign in Nashville, thereby invoking the need to immediately re-allocate Subban's $9M salary. Additionally, since the Preds would then be rolling with Duchene/Johansen/Turris at center, Bonino would become a trade candidate, presenting another opportunity for cap relief. (Personally, I think Ottawa makes the most sense for Bonino, since they need to reach the cap floor, and are short on both veterans and centers. Bonino checks a lot of boxes there.)

If all of the above comes to pass, would you guys be open to LW/RW Miles Wood + 2020 top-5 protected 1st + NSH 2019 2nd for Subban?

Wood is an incredibly versatile forward that would be a seamless fit in Nashville. He has speed to burn (I'd argue he has top-5 straight-line speed in the league), and plays a fearless "bull in a china shop" style that perfectly matches the "Smashville" mantra. He played almost exclusively LW last year, but is fully capable of playing RW (his hat trick in 17-18 actually came on the right side). Frankly, I think he's the player you thought you were acquiring (or wanted to acquire) when you traded for Wayne Simmonds at the deadline... except Wood is 23 and is signed for 3 more years at $2.75M AAV. He has sniffed 20 goals before (19G in 17-18, playing ~12 minutes a night); I could see him breaking out in Nashville, especially if he's given PP time at the front of the net.

The picks may be used to either draft to supplement your lineup with cheap ELCs, or used as trade currency at the deadline. If Poile goes into the 2020 deadline with two 1st's (very unlikely and unusual situation for a contender), Nashville is automatically a part of the conversation for the highest-profile rentals on the market. Even if no additions are made (highly unlikely), you're rolling with:

Forsberg - Duchene - Arvidsson
Tolvanen - Johansen - Granlund
Wood/Jarnkrok - Turris - Smith/Watson
Jarnkrok/Wood - Gaudreau - Watson/Smith

Josi - Ellis
Ekholm - Fabbro
Hamhuis - Weber/Irwin

Again, a lot has to go right for this trade to even be feasible. But, hypothetically, what say you?

I would entertain the idea, but...

I would also have some reservations. What exactly are the terms of the Duchene deal? I don't mind adding him as co-#1C with Johansen - ideally at the same $$$ as Johansen, but grudgingly accepting a small markup due to the whole UFA circus environment. Still, I wouldn't want it to be one of those ultra-extravagant groundbreaking UFA mega-contracts. If he got $9M per with no bells and whistles attached, that's ok. But every $ and every bell and every whistle over that would start to make me question the wisdom of signing him. I firmly believe he's an upgrade on Turris. But it's still just an incremental upgrade.

How much do we want to downgrade our D to make that change? If Duchene takes Turris' spot, and Turris is the one moved to make the cap space to sign Duchene, then the upgrade is pure profit. If we move Subban to accommodate this instead, then we've potentially lost a more important player than even Duchene. I know Subban had a terrible season overall, but the minutes and style he plays can add up to a much greater relative impact on the ice than Duchene can - IF of course Subban is still capable of playing at his levels of previous seasons.

I guess somebody has to convince me that Subban is permanently on a decline before I accept the premise that moving him to make room for Duchene improves our team. It's not an implausible premise. It could be true. Just I don't have enough hard evidence to truly believe in it at my fingertips.

I don't have an overall problem with the valuation - I actually like Wood, despite that he got a bit of flak from Devils fans lately, I was a fan from his earlier seasons and like the idea of another bigger faster winger on our bottom lines. Draft picks are nice enough. If you added a serviceable RD on a short-term deal to plug the gap while Fabbro grows, then I'd say the value is about there. Just it is contingent on those two key factors:
1) We can't find a way to move Turris instead, and
2) We know something that strongly suggests Subban can no longer be a Norris-calibre defenseman in the league.

I wouldn't mind trying something like this instead though:

LW/RW Miles Wood + 2020 top-5 protected 1st + NSH 2019 2nd + serviceable RD
for
Ellis + Jarnkrok

... I could cheerfully replace Jarnkrok's more cerebral spot in the lineup with Wood's more rambunctious style, and while I don't know if Subban can or can't return to his previous top form or not, I am 100% sure that Ellis - despite being pretty good overall - is not ever going to be nominated for the Norris. I like our mix on D better moving Ellis than moving Subban. And we only need about $6M in cap space cleared to sign Duchene.

 

[SpeakingOfTheDevils]

We can sign Duchene without trading Subban.

How?

I'm not trying to lecture you on your own team; that's one of my biggest pet peeves. I'm genuinely curious, though. Even if you manage to keep Subban and sign Duchene, doesn't that put you in a serious bind on the Josi front?

Subban is one year removed from being a Norris finalist. I'm not giving 3 years of him up to "gamble" a player might have the ability to progress past a 30-point bottom-6 player and a draft pick whose primary purpose is to flip for a short-term rental at the deadline. You're proposing a trade deadline return for a player that still has 3 years left. Turn Wood into a surer (and better) young roster player or add another good prospect and it's something to start considering.

This is a fair criticism. I don't think you're giving Wood enough credit, but you have no reason to. I'm not sure the Devils are able to include a surer/better young roster player, so it'd probably be adding a prospect to Wood instead of replacing him with something better.

A lot of this is premised on the above, though. If Nashville truly can sign Duchene and keep Subban, then there's no need to trade Subban somewhere with no retention. I thought New Jersey would've been a seamless fit, as we can easily manage the contract's full value while sending back a good package of exclusively futures. If Subban is instead moved in a hockey trade, we don't have a shot.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

How?

I'm not trying to lecture you on your own team; that's one of my biggest pet peeves. I'm genuinely curious, though. Even if you manage to keep Subban and sign Duchene, doesn't that put you in a serious bind on the Josi front?

This is a fair criticism. I don't think you're giving Wood enough credit, but you have no reason to. I'm not sure the Devils are able to include a surer/better young roster player, so it'd probably be adding a prospect to Wood instead of replacing him with something better.

A lot of this is premised on the above, though. If Nashville truly can sign Duchene and keep Subban, then there's no need to trade Subban somewhere with no retention. I thought New Jersey would've been a seamless fit, as we can easily manage the contract's full value while sending back a good package of exclusively futures. If Subban is instead moved in a hockey trade, we don't have a shot.

Assuming an ~$83M cap, we currently have ~$75M committed with Sissons/Grimaldi to re-sign (maybe $1.5-2M total). That leaves us with $6-$6.5M. Even assuming $10M per for Duchene, we can fit that with moving Ellis, Turris, Bonino, or Smith. If cap stays flat the following summer, we can move any of the same players are cut ties with Smith/Granlund to cover Josi's raise.

I think Subban or Ellis are likely to get moved within the next year or two, but we're not in a desperate position to do so yet.

 

[SpeakingOfTheDevils]

Assuming an ~$83M cap, we currently have ~$75M committed with Sissons/Grimaldi to re-sign (maybe $1.5-2M total). That leaves us with $6-$6.5M. Even assuming $10M per for Duchene, we can fit that with moving Ellis, Turris, Bonino, or Smith. If cap stays flat the following summer, we can move any of the same players are cut ties with Smith/Granlund to cover Josi's raise.

I think Subban or Ellis are likely to get moved within the next year or two, but we're not in a desperate position to do so yet.

If Duchene signs, it's probably Bonino who goes, considering your above scenario. I don't think it'd be wise to cut ties with Turris when his value couldn't be lower.

I was expecting Sissons to get about $2-$2.5M by himself, honestly, but perhaps I'm mistaken in that belief. Adding Grimaldi's new deal on top of that, along with Duchene's hypothetical contract, is what led me to believe your situation was a bit more urgent.

 

[SpeakingOfTheDevils]

I would entertain the idea, but...

I would also have some reservations. What exactly are the terms of the Duchene deal? I don't mind adding him as co-#1C with Johansen - ideally at the same $$$ as Johansen, but grudgingly accepting a small markup due to the whole UFA circus environment. Still, I wouldn't want it to be one of those ultra-extravagant groundbreaking UFA mega-contracts. If he got $9M per with no bells and whistles attached, that's ok. But every $ and every bell and every whistle over that would start to make me question the wisdom of signing him. I firmly believe he's an upgrade on Turris. But it's still just an incremental upgrade.

I envision a max term contract for Duchene with ~$9M AAV. I could see him getting a hair above that mark, if the Skinner contract is any indication. I could also see him getting a hair under that mark, if Poile can sell him on the tax advantages of playing/living in Tennessee.

After getting a taste of playoff hockey with some pretty exciting circumstances, I could see Duchene valuing Nashville because it's a well-run organization that is in the hunt every year. If any team is going to get Duchene at a slight discount, it'll be the Preds, especially if you consider the tax advantages.

Gun to my head, I'd say 7 years, $8.8M AAV for Duchene to Nashville.

How much do we want to downgrade our D to make that change? If Duchene takes Turris' spot, and Turris is the one moved to make the cap space to sign Duchene, then the upgrade is pure profit. If we move Subban to accommodate this instead, then we've potentially lost a more important player than even Duchene. I know Subban had a terrible season overall, but the minutes and style he plays can add up to a much greater relative impact on the ice than Duchene can - IF of course Subban is still capable of playing at his levels of previous seasons.

I guess somebody has to convince me that Subban is permanently on a decline before I accept the premise that moving him to make room for Duchene improves our team. It's not an implausible premise. It could be true. Just I don't have enough hard evidence to truly believe in it at my fingertips.

I can't really help you there. Besides, if there were "enough hard evidence," I would have no interest in paying that price for Subban

I don't have an overall problem with the valuation - I actually like Wood, despite that he got a bit of flak from Devils fans lately, I was a fan from his earlier seasons and like the idea of another bigger faster winger on our bottom lines. Draft picks are nice enough. If you added a serviceable RD on a short-term deal to plug the gap while Fabbro grows, then I'd say the value is about there. Just it is contingent on those two key factors:
1) We can't find a way to move Turris instead, and
2) We know something that strongly suggests Subban can no longer be a Norris-calibre defenseman in the league.

I could see Wood exploding in Nashville, especially under Laviolette. I've always said that a prime Wayne Simmonds is Wood's ceiling; in Nashville and under Lavy, I think that ceiling becomes much more attainable.

I think it's also important to note how raw of a player he is. He went from prep school hockey to the NHL within two calendar years, with a one-year stop at Boston College (where he scored nearly PPG). He's essentially developing his pro hockey game at the NHL level, which adds to his uniqueness, but also makes him a tough player to project. As you'd expect, he's certainly had some growing pains, but for every misstep he has stretches of very strong hockey as an effective (and speedy) power forward.

On Turris, I don't think it's wise to move on from him this summer, unless you're solely looking to cut ties and are comfortable with a mediocre-at-best return. He's not a player that I, personally, would sell low on, especially considering you paid Girard to acquire him.

I wouldn't mind trying something like this instead though:

LW/RW Miles Wood + 2020 top-5 protected 1st + NSH 2019 2nd + serviceable RD
for
Ellis + Jarnkrok

... I could cheerfully replace Jarnkrok's more cerebral spot in the lineup with Wood's more rambunctious style, and while I don't know if Subban can or can't return to his previous top form or not, I am 100% sure that Ellis - despite being pretty good overall - is not ever going to be nominated for the Norris. I like our mix on D better moving Ellis than moving Subban. And we only need about $6M in cap space cleared to sign Duchene.

Oof. If Santini works as the "serviceable RD" you mention, I might be down. I'd try to negotiate you down to a 3rd instead of that 2nd, but it's a good premise.

I'd much rather Subban, so I understand why you'd much rather Ellis

 

[GoldOnGold]

2019-2020

With the cap at $83 million:

Duchene signs UFA for $8.8x7

Sissons signs RFA for $2.5x3

Grimaldi signs RFA for $1x2

Bonino traded for picks (Gain 4.1 million in cap space)

This leaves us ~$1.1 million over the cap. Getting under could be done by trading 2 out of Gaudreau/Irwin/Salomaki/Weber, all of whom are on league minimum contracts or close to it. Or we could trade Jarnkrok. Duchene signing above $9 million makes things very difficult. Him signing for around $8 million makes things substantially easier.

Forsberg - Johansen - Arvidsson
Granlund - Duchene - Smith
Watson - Turris - Sissons
Salomaki - Jarnkrok - Grimaldi

Ekholm - Subban
Josi - Ellis
Hamhuis - Fabbro

Rinne
Saros

2020-2021

With the cap at around $85 million:

Josi signs UFA for $8.5x8 (Hopefully not above $9 per year)

Granlund signs UFA for $6.5x6 (this will depend a lot on how he does this coming season)

Watson signs UFA for $1.2x2

Let Irwin, Weber, Hamhuis, Salomaki, and Smith all go to UFA

That leaves about $3 million to sign 2 bottom six forwards (1 regular, 1 spare) and 2 bottom pairing d-men (1 regular, 1 spare)

Forsberg - Johansen - Arvidsson
Tolvanen - Duchene - Granlund
Watson - Turris - Sissons
(UFA/prospect) - Jarnkrok - Grimaldi

Ekholm - Subban
Josi - Ellis
(UFA/prospect) - Fabbro

Saros
Rinne

Trading Ellis, Turris, or (especially) Subban at any point will make things substantially easier.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I envision a max term contract for Duchene with ~$9M AAV. I could see him getting a hair above that mark, if the Skinner contract is any indication. I could also see him getting a hair under that mark, if Poile can sell him on the tax advantages of playing/living in Tennessee.

After getting a taste of playoff hockey with some pretty exciting circumstances, I could see Duchene valuing Nashville because it's a well-run organization that is in the hunt every year. If any team is going to get Duchene at a slight discount, it'll be the Preds, especially if you consider the tax advantages.

Gun to my head, I'd say 7 years, $8.8M AAV for Duchene to Nashville.

Ok, I accept that offer. Welcome to Smashville, Matt Duchene!

I can't really help you there. Besides, if there were "enough hard evidence," I would have no interest in paying that price for Subban

Well I wouldn't be sharing the evidence with you, of course.

On Turris, I don't think it's wise to move on from him this summer, unless you're solely looking to cut ties and are comfortable with a mediocre-at-best return. He's not a player that I, personally, would sell low on, especially considering you paid Girard to acquire him.

I don't care about selling low on Turris or what we gave up to get him. We just signed Duchene, so Turris is just cap space we need to move. As a #3C he would not be better in that role than Bonino or Sissons. As a winger he might be even worse. He's an ok player in his very narrowly defined niche, but if we get a "free" upgrade on his niche, then I have no problem ditching Turris. In this situation his cap space is a more valuable asset to us than his presence on the ice.

Oof. If Santini works as the "serviceable RD" you mention, I might be down. I'd try to negotiate you down to a 3rd instead of that 2nd, but it's a good premise.

I'd much rather Subban, so I understand why you'd much rather Ellis

I know nothing of Santini, but all he has to do is be able to play RD better than Matt Irwin or Yannick Weber, so the bar is not high. Although if even that is in doubt - which to look at his stats it might be - then I guess we're better off saving the cap hit and sticking with our own cheap filler guys instead.

 

[glenngineer]

I will bring something to light about PK that I've noticed at the end of games. In a win, he and Joey stand on each side of the bench entrance and give guys have fives or in PK's case, a little face rub. He doesn't do it to everyone but he does do it to certain guys and most of them try to avoid it. I have no idea if this rubs any of them the wrong way, it's just an observation.

He and Joey seem tight. We've seen PK and Josi out together on the town. We've PK have other guys join in on some of his ventures around town and look happy doing so.

We've never heard a peep out of anyone say any differently that he's a good or bad guy in the locker room. When Arvy and Fiala had their little scuffle, we heard about that. We've heard of other minor altercations over the years. Did PK and Neal get in to it at one point, I can't remember. If that's the case, we let Neal walk which tells me, while there might have been an issue between the two, PK stayed and Neal was left exposed.

All that to say, we have no idea what he's like and while he could be considered a cancer in one locker room, he could be considered a great teammate and a breath of fresh air in another.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

A fair starting point says we have almost $4M in cap space on a full 23-man roster just returning last season's default roster. Given Sisson's RFA status I could almost see him shocking us a la Hartman last year with a cheaper 1-year deal than we expect - because that would bridge him to RFA status again next summer (I think) and if he has another good season he might get an even better long-term deal next summer. Right now I think we tend to peg him at $2-2.5M for a 3-ish year deal. But if he took a cheap 1-year deal this summer, he could be looking at 5x$3-4M, i.e. in the Bonino range, for his next deal. But that's small potatoes to us either way vis-a-vis having $3.85M or $4.5M in cap space.... either way we need to clear more than Bonino's $4.1M to shoe-horn in Duchene - and GMs don't like shoe-horms if they can avoid it.

2019-20 Default
Forsberg ($6M) - Johansen ($8M) - Arvidsson ($4.25M)
Granlund ($5.75M) - Turris ($6M) - Smith ($4.25M)
Jarnkrok ($2M) - Bonino ($4.1M) - Grimaldi (RFA - $1M)
Salomaki ($0.750M) - Sissons (RFA - $2.25M) - Watson ($1.1M)
Gaudreau($0.667M)

Josi ($4M) - Ellis ($6.25M)
Ekholm ($3.75M) - Subban ($9M)
Hamhuis ($1.25M) - Fabbro ($0.925M)
Irwin ($0.675M) - Weber ($0.675M)

Rinne ($5M)
Saros ($1.5M)

TOTAL: $79.142M
CAP Space on $83 M cap: $3.858M

Now if we can really do Ellis+Jarnkrok for that Devils package instead, sign Duchene and dump Turris off somewhere too...

2019-20 SpeakingOfTheDevils Trade
Forsberg ($6M) - Johansen ($8M) - Arvidsson ($4.25M)
Granlund ($5.75M) - Duchene ($8.8M) - Smith ($4.25M)
Wood ($2.75M) - Sissons (RFA - $2.25M) - Watson ($1.1M)
Boyle (UFA - $2M) - Bonino ($4.1M) - Grimaldi (RFA - $1M)
Salomaki ($0.750M)

Josi ($4M) - Subban ($9M)
Ekholm ($3.75M) - Fabbro ($0.925M)
Hamhuis ($1.25M) - Weber ($0.675M)
Irwin ($0.675M)

Rinne ($5M)
Saros ($1.5M)

TOTAL: $77.775M
CAP Space on $83 M cap: $5.225M

... still one roster spot left to fill... could sign a better UFA RD. Or $5.225M is almost enough actually to just keep Turris - I snuck in a Boyle UFA signing for some veteran leadership there, but you could just not sign him and keep Turris instead if that is your cup of tea, and this roster would be fine on the cap with no shoe horn needed.

2019-20 What The Heck Keep Turris version of SpeakingOfTheDevils Trade
Forsberg ($6M) - Johansen ($8M) - Arvidsson ($4.25M)
Granlund ($5.75M) - Duchene ($8.8M) - Turris ($6M)
Wood ($2.75M) - Sissons (RFA - $2.25M) - Smith ($4.25M)
Watson ($1.1M) - Bonino ($4.1M) - Grimaldi (RFA - $1M)
Salomaki ($0.750M)

Josi ($4M) - Subban ($9M)
Ekholm ($3.75M) - Fabbro ($0.925M)
Hamhuis ($1.25M) - Weber ($0.675M)
Irwin ($0.675M)

Rinne ($5M)
Saros ($1.5M)

TOTAL: $81.775M
CAP Space on $83 M cap: $1.225M

... I mean, I really think we can have a better team trading away Ellis instead of Subban. I know there is that big shiny new contract and a lot of love and loyalty to Ellis likely floating around, but it just seems to leave us in a much better place. Smith or Granlund walking next year pays for Josi... but at least we still have Turris around and hopefully he was successful as a winger there. Then we just hope Tolvanen is ready to slide in for whichever winger leaves next summer.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I will bring something to light about PK that I've noticed at the end of games. In a win, he and Joey stand on each side of the bench entrance and give guys have fives or in PK's case, a little face rub. He doesn't do it to everyone but he does do it to certain guys and most of them try to avoid it. I have no idea if this rubs any of them the wrong way, it's just an observation.

He and Joey seem tight. We've seen PK and Josi out together on the town. We've PK have other guys join in on some of his ventures around town and look happy doing so.

We've never heard a peep out of anyone say any differently that he's a good or bad guy in the locker room. When Arvy and Fiala had their little scuffle, we heard about that. We've heard of other minor altercations over the years. Did PK and Neal get in to it at one point, I can't remember. If that's the case, we let Neal walk which tells me, while there might have been an issue between the two, PK stayed and Neal was left exposed.

All that to say, we have no idea what he's like and while he could be considered a cancer in one locker room, he could be considered a great teammate and a breath of fresh air in another.

Habs fans said something similar about his antics and post-game face washes annoying some guys (was it Plekanec?) But c'mon these aren't 10-year old kids. I would think if you knew the antics were really truly bothering somebody there'd be a little chat and it wouldn't happen anymore. Like now with some guys in on it and some not on our team. Thing is, it's the only kind of thing the gossip mongers can actually see, because it's right there in the post-game celebration on TV. They have nothing else to go on, so that forms the basis of some kind of fantasy speculation? Seems awfully tenuous to me.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

How?

I'm not trying to lecture you on your own team; that's one of my biggest pet peeves. I'm genuinely curious, though. Even if you manage to keep Subban and sign Duchene, doesn't that put you in a serious bind on the Josi front?

Ive been playing around with arm chair gm on cap friendly lately. Its a thing on cap friendly where you can make moves and sign players. And after doing that ive came to realize were not in bad shape cap wise as people are leading on.
Signing Duchene at 9 million can be done with out any of our top 4 defenseman being traded. And that's signing Sissons at 2.5 million and Grimaldi at a 1 million. Trading turris would be the simplest way to get Duchene. And that would leave us 18.1 million next year to sign josi and granlund and fill our the roster with a couple in the ahl. And that's if the cap stays the same which it won't.
Saying that I still think subban or Ellis is dealt but I think poile will be looking to upgrade his top 6 with that kind of move not just trying to dump salary. So say we traded subban for say Nylander+ not sayin we should trade for Nylander just using him as an example. In this senerio you get a top 6 player and something else maybe a pick or a prospect and you save 2 million in cap space.

 

[Gh24]

Adding 2M to their cap might be an issue for TOR. If I recall, they have something like 13-14M to resing Marner, Kapanen and Johnsson. If they could get rid of Marleau's 6.25M, they could resing Marner 11M, Kapanen and Johnsson combined 7M and then have 1M for a depth signing.

Take out (trade or whatever) one of Kap/Johnsson and it could work. Or if they trade Kadri, which seems more likely.

Either way, I don't think they would be adding anything to Nylander in a Subban trade. One for one if their cap situation allows it.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

Adding 2M to their cap might be an issue for TOR. If I recall, they have something like 13-14M to resing Marner, Kapanen and Johnsson. If they could get rid of Marleau's 6.25M, they could resing Marner 11M, Kapanen and Johnsson combined 7M and then have 1M for a depth signing.

Take out (trade or whatever) one of Kap/Johnsson and it could work. Or if they trade Kadri, which seems more likely.

Either way, I don't think they would be adding anything to Nylander in a Subban trade. One for one if their cap situation allows it.

Would you do kapanen and Johnsson and 2019 3rd for subban(retain 1.2 million)

 

[Gh24]

Would you do kapanen and Johnsson and 2019 3rd for subban(retain 1.2 million)

Wouldn't retain.

Both of these guys had good first full seasons (43 and 44 points), so having them on two year bridge deals and heading into the expansion draft with two potential top line (at least top6) RFA's would make it very interesting.

If Granlund wants to extend with us, we could expose one of these guys to keep Ellis (assuming we want to do that). Seattle will be in a position to offer big money and a huge role. It could be an opportunity they didn't want to miss. Or we could trade RFA rights to someone instead of giving up a good asset to Seattle, because **** instantly competitive expansion teams.

I'd rather see some cap space shed in a Subban deal unless the return is a top line player. 2M more in cap space means getting rid of only Bonino's 4.1M would allow us to sign Duchene, right?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Would you do kapanen and Johnsson and 2019 3rd for subban(retain 1.2 million)

They are good players, but I guess in all these Subban ideas, I keep coming back to the fundamental question of just what Subban is anymore. Because a prime Subban Makes A Difference to our team. At his best, he has been our best player and sometimes a key reason we won some games. Getting some middle lineup depth or unknown futures, I don't know how often those elements can Make A Difference like one star player can. Quantity doesn't necessarily add up to quality.

But of course the drawback in all this is we just don't know if Subban is going to be the same player anymore. I wish we knew. I guess, lacking the knowledge, I would just gamble on holding onto the single star asset. Hoping he bounces back. Accepting that if he doesn't his value is only going to plummet from here on out. But we're at least somewhat in win-now mode - not totally because we do have a pretty young core - still I'd just cross my fingers that the real PK comes back because if we're going to contend in the next 3 years having one Norris-calibre defenseman will probably matter more than a couple of speedy young 20-goal wingers.

To budge me on trading Subban I'd want some other "wins" in the deal... getting real cap space (and having somebody to spend it on), or getting a star player back. Or I'd need solid evidence that he's damaged goods or is just goofing off too much to take his hockey seriously enough anymore - not just the usual rumor mill stuff, but the real firsthand insight. Poile will have this, so if he does move PK I'll try to trust that he had sufficient justification. Lacking it, I wouldn't sign up to these quantity-for-quality deals. But like the Devils guy said, if people knew that about PK they wouldn't be offering those deals either.

A pox on Subban's horrible season. Hopefully he just comes back to his old self next season and all this uncertainty can be put to rest.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

They are good players, but I guess in all these Subban ideas, I keep coming back to the fundamental question of just what Subban is anymore. Because a prime Subban Makes A Difference to our team. At his best, he has been our best player and sometimes a key reason we won some games. Getting some middle lineup depth or unknown futures, I don't know how often those elements can Make A Difference like one star player can. Quantity doesn't necessarily add up to quality.

But of course the drawback in all this is we just don't know if Subban is going to be the same player anymore. I wish we knew. I guess, lacking the knowledge, I would just gamble on holding onto the single star asset. Hoping he bounces back. Accepting that if he doesn't his value is only going to plummet from here on out. But we're at least somewhat in win-now mode - not totally because we do have a pretty young core - still I'd just cross my fingers that the real PK comes back because if we're going to contend in the next 3 years having one Norris-calibre defenseman will probably matter more than a couple of speedy young 20-goal wingers.

To budge me on trading Subban I'd want some other "wins" in the deal... getting real cap space (and having somebody to spend it on), or getting a star player back. Or I'd need solid evidence that he's damaged goods or is just goofing off too much to take his hockey seriously enough anymore - not just the usual rumor mill stuff, but the real firsthand insight. Poile will have this, so if he does move PK I'll try to trust that he had sufficient justification. Lacking it, I wouldn't sign up to these quantity-for-quality deals. But like the Devils guy said, if people knew that about PK they wouldn't be offering those deals either.

A pox on Subban's horrible season. Hopefully he just comes back to his old self next season and all this uncertainty can be put to rest.

I dont want to trade subban either because im sure he'll bounce back but we need forward help in the worse way in my opinion. I would be listening to offers for every one of my defenseman if I'm poile trying to find scoring help. In this proposal I made, not only do you get 20 goal scorers but you get younger and poile would probably be able to lock them up long term for cheaper. Just a thought.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I dont want to trade subban either because im sure he'll bounce back but we need forward help in the worse way in my opinion. I would be listening to offers for every one of my defenseman if I'm poile trying to find scoring help. In this proposal I made, not only do you get 20 goal scorers but you get younger and poile would probably be able to lock them up long term for cheaper. Just a thought.

I might be crazy but that Niskanen for Gudas deal... the way our defense is, I could almost see switching Ellis for Gudas being a reasonable ploy for us. Gudas has his... limitations, of course. And you could never use him as much as we use Ellis. But with Fabbro coming, and the way the Flyers retained on Gudas too - that one move would have given us the cap space for Duchene. Fabbro could pick up Ellis' 5-on-5 assignments, and Gudas could pick up his defensive ones. And we'd have some real physicality back there for the change. I know in isolation we'd have been giving up the far superior player... but all things considered it could have been a nice fit for the needs of both our teams? In fact, Ellis is so much better we really ought to have gotten some nice additional piece back too, a good prospect or draft pick perhaps.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

I might be crazy but that Niskanen for Gudas deal... the way our defense is, I could almost see switching Ellis for Gudas being a reasonable ploy for us. Gudas has his... limitations, of course. And you could never use him as much as we use Ellis. But with Fabbro coming, and the way the Flyers retained on Gudas too - that one move would have given us the cap space for Duchene. Fabbro could pick up Ellis' 5-on-5 assignments, and Gudas could pick up his defensive ones. And we'd have some real physicality back there for the change. I know in isolation we'd have been giving up the far superior player... but all things considered it could have been a nice fit for the needs of both our teams? In fact, Ellis is so much better we really ought to have gotten some nice additional piece back too, a good prospect or draft pick perhaps.

Yes, apparently you are.

In seriousness though, getting a bottom pair d-man in the package for Ellis or Subban is fine (and probably prudent), but he can't be the most valuable part of the package coming to us. That's not good asset management, regardless of whether we get Duchene as a result. We get a very good young player/prospect and then get a throw-in d-man, that's better.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Yes, apparently you are.

In seriousness though, getting a bottom pair d-man in the package for Ellis or Subban is fine (and probably prudent), but he can't be the most valuable part of the package coming to us. That's not good asset management, regardless of whether we get Duchene as a result. We get a very good young player/prospect and then get a throw-in d-man, that's better.

I don't think Gudas is quite bottom pair. Or at least if he is, he's a really special one. But as a hybrid #4/5 type with the big hitting specialty, he could have brought more to our team than Ellis might. Maybe. Questionably - I don't fully buy it myself, but can at least consider the possibility. The most valuable part of the package coming to us could be the long-term cap space, which again is an asset that needs to be managed just as much as player bodies do. But yeah, a good prospect/pick inclusion would be a key component also and possibly also turn out to be the most valuable. It is like our earlier Ellis for Larsson+Puljujarvi/Yamamoto theme, basically. Just Gudas is riskier and lower pedigree than Larsson. While freeing up even more cap.

When I eventually get onto that melted down "fire Poile" bandwagon, I bet it will be because of something like Ellis getting even smaller-seeming and slower and holding our D back even more over the next 8 years, in plain sight, right under Poile's nose, with some fictional overvaluation of him as an "asset". Alot of that is prophecy atm. Would be interesting to see it headed off at the pass. But you watch. We trade Subban at his lowest point. We lose Fabbro to Seattle. THEN we'll dearly wished we could have taken even something like a Gudas for him when we had the chance!

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

I don't think Gudas is quite bottom pair. Or at least if he is, he's a really special one. But as a hybrid #4/5 type with the big hitting specialty, he could have brought more to our team than Ellis might. Maybe. Questionably - I don't fully buy it myself, but can at least consider the possibility. The most valuable part of the package coming to us could be the long-term cap space, which again is an asset that needs to be managed just as much as player bodies do. But yeah, a good prospect/pick inclusion would be a key component also and possibly also turn out to be the most valuable. It is like our earlier Ellis for Larsson+Puljujarvi/Yamamoto theme, basically. Just Gudas is riskier and lower pedigree than Larsson. While freeing up even more cap.

When I eventually get onto that melted down "fire Poile" bandwagon, I bet it will be because of something like Ellis getting even smaller-seeming and slower and holding our D back even more over the next 8 years, in plain sight, right under Poile's nose, with some fictional overvaluation of him as an "asset". Alot of that is prophecy atm. Would be interesting to see it headed off at the pass. But you watch. We trade Subban at his lowest point. We lose Fabbro to Seattle. THEN we'll dearly wished we could have taken even something like a Gudas for him when we had the chance!

I just fundamentally believe you do not trade assets with value for cap space (even though I know the perceptions of Ellis' value around here fluctuate wildly at the moment). You take the best player available when drafting, you get the best trade return possible if you are trading (barring certain specific circumstances) If you need cap space, you find a way to dump a less valuable piece or gain it while also getting assets with value in return. Even if he's a good (or better) fit for what he does bring, Gudas just is not sufficiently valuable to justify that trade. If Gudas was a good enough fit, you find other assets to trade for him with commensurate value.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I just fundamentally believe you do not trade assets with value for cap space (even though I know the perceptions of Ellis' value around here fluctuate wildly at the moment). You take the best player available when drafting, you get the best trade return possible if you are trading (barring certain specific circumstances) If you need cap space, you find a way to dump a less valuable piece or gain it while also getting assets with value in return. Even if he's a good (or better) fit for what he does bring, Gudas just is not sufficiently valuable to justify that trade. If Gudas was a good enough fit, you find other assets to trade for him with commensurate value.

Except Philadelphia wanted a better RD for Gudas. Or a different style RD for him anyway. Sometimes you have to work with what's out there too. Otherwise you might find yourself just drifting down Freddie's prophesized path and keeping Ellis indefinitely while his asset value sinks even lower and we lose other assets around him at even greater cost to the team. If you chain yourself too rigidly to a win-every-deal-in-isolation-on-paper-no-matter-what philosophy then you might just find you make no deals at all. Sometimes you need to be thinking ahead and sacrifice a pawn or two to win the endgame.

Ellis still has value - but I can see the NHL drifting down a path where that value diminishes rapidly over the next few years. There has been a bit of a run on small fast skilled defensemen lately. But the small slow guys that snuck in too might be in some trouble. Bigger and more physical guys are set to make a bit of a rebound. And it's not purely just reacting to "fads"... the league tried small guys for a while there. And is maybe finding out that doesn't work so well in many cases. I think we've seen it two playoffs in a row, our small guys on D couldn't handle the big lines that the Avs, Jets, and Stars can throw out there. Today, I think Ellis ought to still have value. But if this trend does take hold, he might not for much longer. Next year or the year after maybe nobody even offers you Gudas and a pick for him.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Except Philadelphia wanted a better RD for Gudas. Or a different style RD for him anyway. Sometimes you have to work with what's out there too. Otherwise you might find yourself just drifting down Freddie's prophesized path and keeping Ellis indefinitely while his asset value sinks even lower and we lose other assets around him at even greater cost to the team. If you chain yourself too rigidly to a win-every-deal-in-isolation-on-paper-no-matter-what philosophy then you might just find you make no deals at all. Sometimes you need to be thinking ahead and sacrifice a pawn or two to win the endgame.

Ellis still has value - but I can see the NHL drifting down a path where that value diminishes rapidly over the next few years. There has been a bit of a run on small fast skilled defensemen lately. But the small slow guys that snuck in too might be in some trouble. Bigger and more physical guys are set to make a bit of a rebound. And it's not purely just reacting to "fads"... the league tried small guys for a while there. And is maybe finding out that doesn't work so well in many cases. I think we've seen it two playoffs in a row, our small guys on D couldn't handle the big lines that the Avs, Jets, and Stars can throw out there. Today, I think Ellis ought to still have value. But if this trend does take hold, he might not for much longer. Next year or the year after maybe nobody even offers you Gudas and a pick for him.

Ellis being small and slow was mitigated by his high hockey IQ. If he pulls his head out of his ass and doesn't play like a dipshit next year (and his work ethic/effort level gets back up to where it appeared to be previously--this is the guy that laid out Taylor Hall in open ice a few years ago, the Benn thing was...weird), he shouldn't see that much of a decline. Intelligence usually isn't one of those skills you worry about diminishing over time (don't be that exception, Rocket Ship! ).

 

[Green Blank Stare]

How would you boys feel about a deal centered around Chris Tanev and #10 overall for Subban?

 

[Gh24]

How would you boys feel about a deal centered around Chris Tanev and #10 overall for Subban?

If we don't sign Duchene, we need a winger for Turris who can drive the line. Subban would be the primary trade chip for that in my opinion.

If we move Turris or Bonino to sign Duchene, then this sounds pretty tempting.

Lots of moving parts with Duchene situation, UFAs, upcoming expansion draft etc, but all things simplified, it's a solid option.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

How would you boys feel about a deal centered around Chris Tanev and #10 overall for Subban?

I think it's pretty terrible for us in our situation. A #10 pick should have more value to some team that isn't trying to contend. It's a nice piece, but for us is really devalued since we won't see any impact from it in the next 3-5 years.

Tanev would be ok as a temporary filler on RD if we moved Subban or Ellis, but he's had A LOT of trouble staying healthy and would walk as a UFA next summer... I wouldn't treat him as carrying a ton of value either.

What I'd want is a 30+ goal scorer as the main piece. And then you can add Tanev as a throw-in. And you're not going to give us Boeser, so I don't see a fit.