Pre-Game Talk: All Purpose Off Day Thread | Ruhwedel to W-B/S for Conditioning

[Empoleon8771]

Having that contract shouldn't be crippling as long as we fix the rest of the defense. You can have one JJ, Maatta, or Oleksiak on a d. The problem is half of our d is that kind of player.

If we had like 4 puck moving d and 2 JJ/Oleksiak/Maatta types I'd be ok with that. JJ will at least be useful in the playoffs because once they stop calling penalties a guy like him will be able to absolutely maul people. Orpik and Gill and Scuderi always became infinitely more useful when penalties stopped being called.

JJ has a reputation of being a big game player as well so who knows maybe he will bring that for us if we make it.

I think you ideally have 1 or fewer, but I agree in principle. I think if you can move Maatta and Oleksiak, get Schultz back when healthy and add a solid 2nd pair LD (or have Riikola take that spot and run with it), your defense is extremely well set. The Pettersson-Johnson pair has worked really well so far, so if they continue to work, I think your bottom pair is set. The top pair is obviously great, so you don't need to worry about that. It just comes down to that 2nd pair.

If Maatta returns to form and Schultz comes back strong when he's healthy (or if Riikola can lock down that 2nd pair D role in place of either of them), I don't think you have to do add anything to your defense. If Maatta continues to struggle, you have to move him out and bring in someone like the good version of him to be the 2nd pair LD. I don't think JR has the time to be patient with the defense and see if the problems sort themselves out. I would be completely fine with Maatta sorting out his stuff elsewhere and becoming a great top-4 D if you can replace him with someone who will help you win right now. The Penguins don't have enough cup runs with Crosby and Malkin left to be keeping guys based on the upside of struggling young(ish) players.

 

[Turin]

I have no idea how you can say that based on performance to date this season.

And I have no idea how you don’t say that. Maatta is also younger, having his worst season ever being bogged down by Oleksiak, and he’s still literally neck and neck with Johnson. Maatta’s slow skating is painful but more so for me is Johnson not watching the puck and being out of position constantly.

 

[ncm7772]

Wilson sent to WBS so presume Simon is good to go

Cool, imagine that Simon is healthy now. Will probably see Grant tonight if not.

Anyone else think Wilson has looked ok with Cullen and Sheahan?

 

[wej20]

Cool, imagine that Simon is healthy now. Will probably see Grant tonight if not.

Anyone else think Wilson has looked ok with Cullen and Sheahan?

Think he had one of his better games (as did Cullen and Sheahan). He shouldn't be in the lineup on a regular basis though, there is a reason he's not scored an NHL goal.

 

[Peat]

I think it is unreasonable to judge players based solely on their shot suppression and puck moving talent, even if I do think this team lacks in puck moving talent. Relative to the rest of the defense, Johnson really isn't a problem right now, so I don't get why people are still complaining about him. Fix the rest of the defense and then circle back to the Johnson problem, because JJ is problem #3 on the defense right now (#4 if you think not playing Riikola counts).

Like I said a couple of days ago, Johnson is the reincarnation of 2013 Brooks Orpik. He is what he is. Once you fix the problem of players underperforming on your defense, namely Maatta and Oleksiak, then circle back to addressing that situation.

Answering this point separately as I don't have time to go into depth into everything but -

If I'm not judging dmen on how they suppress shots and move the puck, what am I judging them on? And is it important enough to overlook flaws in those pretty major areas? And aren't a lot of these things showing up in shot suppression somehow? I mean, a blocked shot is a suppressed shot, effective hitting should break up play (which leads to less shots) and etc.etc.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Answering this point separately as I don't have time to go into depth into everything but -

If I'm not judging dmen on how they suppress shots and move the puck, what am I judging them on? And is it important enough to overlook flaws in those pretty major areas? And aren't a lot of these things showing up in shot suppression somehow? I mean, a blocked shot is a suppressed shot, effective hitting should break up play (which leads to less shots) and etc.etc.

It actually isn't, a better way to put it is "shot attempt suppression", not "shot suppression". That's at least what it is when they use Corsi, which is by far the dominant advanced stat out there.

Anyway, in Johnson's case, positives he brings like shot blocking, physicality and skating aren't shown in advanced stats. Neither is his special teams play, but that's expected when all advanced stats are 5v5 numbers. If Johnson clears the crease and gives Murray a clear path on a shot, it counts for the same as a shot where Murray is completely screened. If Johnson blocks a shot, it counts for the same as a shot on net if you're using Corsi. Johnson skating back to defend a 2 on 1 and conceding a less dangerous shot counts for the same as a breakaway where the defenseman can't get back. Advanced stats don't show Johnson blowing up Wilson behind the net, which both takes Wilson out of the play and may spark your team.

Games aren't solely played based on shot differential, no matter what the advanced stat crowd may say. Pretty much all advanced stats are just shot differential, that's all they are. That's not a justification for filling your roster with bad possession players, but you can have a few that bring something that advanced stats don't show. In a perfect world, you can get a guy that brings the physicality that Johnson brings while being great possession players, but guys like that are super rare.

 

[MrBurghundy]

And I have no idea how you don’t say that. Maatta is also younger, having his worst season ever being bogged down by Oleksiak, and he’s still literally neck and neck with Johnson. Maatta’s slow skating is painful but more so for me is Johnson not watching the puck and being out of position constantly.

Maatta has been regressing for a couple seasons now, and does the exact same painful things you claim Johnson is doing. All with worse foot speed.

I'd be curious to know who people though was our worst defenseman. Somebody should get a poll going.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Maatta has been regressing for a couple seasons now, and does the exact same painful things you claim Johnson is doing. All with worse foot speed.

I'd be curious to know who people though was our worst defenseman. Somebody should get a poll going.

I actually think Johnson's game could be better for us in the playoffs than Maatta's.

Also, I think I'm just fed up with Maatta at this point. So I'm likely not ever going to see him as anything but the worst defenseman on the team. Not unless he returns to his rookie form. Johnson's frustrating, but he's 30+ games worth of frustrating. Maatta's been building up my frustration for multiple seasons.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

And I have no idea how you don’t say that. Maatta is also younger, having his worst season ever being bogged down by Oleksiak, and he’s still literally neck and neck with Johnson. Maatta’s slow skating is painful but more so for me is Johnson not watching the puck and being out of position constantly.

Watching Maatta try to defend the rush against any opponent faster than John Scott is pretty painful.

 

[SHOOTANDSCORE]

I think our worst D can be any one of the 3 stooges on any given night.

That said, Maatta should be gone yesterday.

 

[Peat]

It actually isn't, a better way to put it is "shot attempt suppression", not "shot suppression". That's at least what it is when they use Corsi, which is by far the dominant advanced stat out there.

Anyway, in Johnson's case, positives he brings like shot blocking, physicality and skating aren't shown in advanced stats. Neither is his special teams play, but that's expected when all advanced stats are 5v5 numbers. If Johnson clears the crease and gives Murray a clear path on a shot, it counts for the same as a shot where Murray is completely screened. If Johnson blocks a shot, it counts for the same as a shot on net if you're using Corsi. Johnson skating back to defend a 2 on 1 and conceding a less dangerous shot counts for the same as a breakaway where the defenseman can't get back. Advanced stats don't show Johnson blowing up Wilson behind the net, which both takes Wilson out of the play and may spark your team.

Games aren't solely played based on shot differential, no matter what the advanced stat crowd may say. Pretty much all advanced stats are just shot differential, that's all they are. That's not a justification for filling your roster with bad possession players, but you can have a few that bring something that advanced stats don't show. In a perfect world, you can get a guy that brings the physicality that Johnson brings while being great possession players, but guys like that are super rare.

Shot blocking should show up when it comes to Fenwick and SA though (and when I think shot suppression, I think of those stats, not Corsi). Johnson's stats are still bad there. Skating back to force less dangerous shots on a 2 on 1 should result in less Scoring Chances and High Danger Chances. Clearing the crease to let the goaltender see the shot better should result in better save percentages... that one has got better recently, but he's still pretty much our worst there overall.

And this is my big thing about Johnson. Yes, shot differentials aren't everything. But when you look at all the stats, from Corsi to HDCF to GF% to Save Percentage, something should be showing at least some of his strengths. They don't. So either his strengths aren't all that strong, or they don't counterbalance his weaknesses. Making some morale rousing hits don't really excuse having the worst results on the roster.

And unless we're using a very recent sample, that is what Johnson is - at least 5v5. Get to the 5vs4 PK and out of the 4 main guys (Maatta, Letang, Johnson and Dumo) and he's the 2nd best - behind Maatta.

When I look at the overall problems with the defence - not good enough in general, missing Schultz and an effective 2nd pairing in specific - I don't see how Johnson's role in that escapes being part of the problem.

And I don't see how he's not a good candidate for the worst value for money here. Maatta's been disappointing this season but he brings better individual production, better results at 5v5 and on the PK for £850,000 more. Each to their own but there is at the very least an argument here.

Good on him for finding a good partnership with Petterson. I hope that partnership is the start of a turnaround. But one is needed and maybe more than any other player.

 

[Turin]

Watching Maatta try to defend the rush against any opponent faster than John Scott is pretty painful.

It is. Don’t get me wrong I want both gone with Oleksiak.

 

[Pancakes]

Watching Maatta try to defend the rush against any opponent faster than John Scott is pretty painful.

I dunno I saw John Scott burn Orpik once for a breakaway goal and I'm pretty sure Maatta is even slower than Orpik.

 

[The Old Master]

I dunno I saw John Scott burn Orpik once for a breakaway goal and I'm pretty sure Maatta is even slower than Orpik.

maatta's skating seems to be getting worse. (or maybe other teams are just getting faster) he never was fast, but I don't remember him being this bad. I could be wrong but after a lay off he seems to be a little bit better. so it might be health related, but if not you would think he could improve it in the off season.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

It is. Don’t get me wrong I want both gone with Oleksiak.

I think Oleksiak could have a place here, because he's by far the cheapest of the 3 and actually has a niche to fill.

I realize I'm an outlier there.

 

[Gurglesons]

I think Oleksiak could have a place here, because he's by far the cheapest of the 3 and actually has a niche to fill.

I realize I'm an outlier there.

You just want to get away from our skill game and be a physical team judging by your love of Sprong, Brassard, Kessel and now Oleksiak.

 

[Tom Hanks]

What’s going on with the team?

Rust has 8 goals in last 6 games.
Penguins 2nd best record in the east in the last 10 games.
Malkin GA/60 went crazy in the wrong direction while JJ’s is going in the right direction.

 

[Peat]

I think Oleksiak could have a place here, because he's by far the cheapest of the 3 and actually has a niche to fill.

I realize I'm an outlier there.

I kinda agree, but then I feel like the niche is "Be the last guy on an already solid D-Corps so that the sweet attacking skills and ability to punch people can be carried", and I just don't see where that niche is going to be on the team anytime soon.

What’s going on with the team?

Rust has 8 goals in last 6 games.
Penguins 2nd best record in the east in the last 10 games.
Malkin GA/60 went crazy in the wrong direction while JJ’s is going in the right direction.

We used magic to transfer the souls of Rust and Malkin to each other's bodies.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

I think Oleksiak could have a place here, because he's by far the cheapest of the 3 and actually has a niche to fill.

I realize I'm an outlier there.

No, I agree. At his cap hit, if he's our 6/7th guy over Ruhwedel, we're not in a bad spot.

But Maatta has to go.

Maatta has been regressing for a couple seasons now, and does the exact same painful things you claim Johnson is doing. All with worse foot speed.

I'd be curious to know who people though was our worst defenseman. Somebody should get a poll going.

Posted up.

 

[Tom Hanks]

maatta's skating seems to be getting worse. (or maybe other teams are just getting faster) he never was fast, but I don't remember him being this bad. I could be wrong but after a lay off he seems to be a little bit better. so it might be health related, but if not you would think he could improve it in the off season.

The thing that’s made Maatta decline this season is his decision making. He always had the skating issues but he slowly improved his overall game every year after his health issues. That stopped this year and went backwards because he seemed to swap hockey IQ’s with Letang.

He still doesn’t get scored on that much but he’s taken a step back offensively. With Riikola and Pettersson looking like they can provide the defense without Maatta’s issues/question marks it’s a good time to look at a trade to either try an upgrade on D or get the best forward you can in a deal.

 

[Peat]

The thing that’s made Maatta decline this season is his decision making. He always had the skating issues but he slowly improved his overall game every year after his health issues. That stopped this year and went backwards because he seemed to swap hockey IQ’s with Letang.

He still doesn’t get scored on that much but he’s taken a step back offensively. With Riikola and Pettersson looking like they can provide the defense without Maatta’s issues/question marks it’s a good time to look at a trade to either try an upgrade on D or get the best forward you can in a deal.

The canary in the mine for Maatta's game, imo, is how quickly he moves the puck in the D Zone. Both in that its a good gauge as to how confident he's feeling, because he takes too long to make decisions when he's not, and in that it makes a dramatic change as to the quality of the chances he gives up.

 

[The Old Master]

With Riikola and Pettersson looking like they can provide the defense without Maatta’s issues/question marks it’s a good time to look at a trade to either try an upgrade on D or get the best forward you can in a deal.

it's a lot harder to trade de-for-de than de-for-forward. imo but you are right we do need to move a defense-man or two. just wish one of them was a righty. imo

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I kinda agree, but then I feel like the niche is "Be the last guy on an already solid D-Corps so that the sweet attacking skills and ability to punch people can be carried", and I just don't see where that niche is going to be on the team anytime soon.

Oleksiak has his flaws, but he's both our biggest/toughest player and our 2nd highest scoring d-man.

I think that has value for around 2 mil per, especially relative to his competition.

But if any 2 of Oleksiak/Maatta/JJ got moved, I wouldn't complain.

 

[Peat]

Oleksiak has his flaws, but he's both our biggest/toughest player and our 2nd highest scoring d-man.

I think that has value for around 2 mil per, especially relative to his competition.

But if any 2 of Oleksiak/Maatta/JJ got moved, I wouldn't complain.

I agree with all of that but yet still stand by what I said... which speaks volumes for what I think about the rest of his game, I guess.

Also, I'm expecting a lot of disappointed peeps around here when we've still got 2 of those names here at the start of the next season, as I'd put that outcome at over 50% likelihood of happening.

 

[Pancakes]

What’s going on with the team?

Rust has 8 goals in last 6 games.
Penguins 2nd best record in the east in the last 10 games.
Malkin GA/60 went crazy in the wrong direction while JJ’s is going in the right direction.

I really thought we'd have nothing left for last nights game after beating the Caps. Getting the win last night was a huge thing really.