Pre-Game Talk: All Purpose Off Day Thread | Ruhwedel to W-B/S for Conditioning

[Empoleon8771]

Because the number of dmen on our roster means someone's gotta go sooner or later and Johnson's arguably the worst value for money there.

I'm not sure Rutherford agrees with that mind, but there's an argument there. I'm quite intrigued to see how Rutherford handles this stockpile over the coming months. I'm 99% sure that one of Maatta or Oleksiak goes, and which one goes depends more on trade returns that anything else, but I'd love to know what's his private internal picking order without contracts and where Johnson sits in it.

I don't think that's arguable because Maatta seems to be clearly the worst to me

There are justifications to moving any of Maatta, Schultz, Johnson and Oleksiak. I don't think worst bang for your buck is a Johnson argument, it's a Maatta argument. Age and contract length combined is the biggest argument for trading Johnson.

 

[Shady Machine]

But for real though, it depends on the player because of what advanced stats show. Johnson's strengths (mainly physicality and skating) aren't shown in advanced stats, but his weaknesses (mainly defensive positioning and puck moving) are huge parts of advanced stats. Advanced stats basically show puck moving talent and shot suppression ability, neither of which are strengths of JJ.

If a puck mover has bad possession stats, that's different than JJ having bad advanced stats if that makes sense. You expect Johnson to have bad fancy stats, not strong puck movers. It's why Maatta's bad advanced stats are a much bigger deal than Johnson's bad advanced stats, because he's supposed to be good at that stuff.

I don’t want players that I expect to have bad fancy stats, especially not those signed for 5 seasons.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don’t want players that I expect to have bad fancy stats, especially not those signed for 5 seasons.

What if I told you there is more to hockey than fancy stats?

Look, I don't know what people expected when it came to Johnson. He has literally never had good advanced stats in his career. He hit 50% CF% and 0.0% CF%Rel once in his entire career. The important thing with Johnson is whether he's playing physical, blocking shots and skating well. He's going to give you bad advanced stats, that's just the player he is. He's not a good shot suppressor and is a mediocre puck mover, which is 95% of what advanced stats show.

 

[Peat]

I don't think that's arguable because Maatta seems to be clearly the worst to me

There are justifications to moving any of Maatta, Schultz, Johnson and Oleksiak. I don't think worst bang for your buck is a Johnson argument, it's a Maatta argument. Age and contract length combined is the biggest argument for trading Johnson.

In terms of current form? Probably yes. In terms of what he can do? Probably not. Imo at least. Although any argument for recent form should note that atm, playing Maatta with Oleksiak instead of with Riikola amounts to cruel and unusual punishment.

And I don't think that Johnson's contract makes it possible to improve the team by trading him unless its addition by subtraction, so I think he's safe, and I think Schultz is safe because there's not a great trade market for guys with that kind of injury (or just back of it) plus all the other reasons I've already argued with you... it comes down to the two expensive fit guys with some trade value.

What if I told you there is more to hockey than fancy stats?

Look, I don't know what people expected when it came to Johnson. He has literally never had good advanced stats in his career. He hit 50% CF% and 0.0% CF%Rel once in his entire career. The important thing with Johnson is whether he's playing physical, blocking shots and skating well. He's going to give you bad advanced stats, that's just the player he is. He's not a good shot suppressor and is a mediocre puck mover, which is 95% of what advanced stats show.

I don't think its unreasonable to suggest that one doesn't want dmen who bad shot suppressors and bad puck movers.

 

[Turin]

Maatta is better than Johnson, come on.

 

[Empoleon8771]

In terms of current form? Probably yes. In terms of what he can do? Probably not. Imo at least. Although any argument for recent form should note that atm, playing Maatta with Oleksiak instead of with Riikola amounts to cruel and unusual punishment.

And I don't think that Johnson's contract makes it possible to improve the team by trading him unless its addition by subtraction, so I think he's safe, and I think Schultz is safe because there's not a great trade market for guys with that kind of injury (or just back of it) plus all the other reasons I've already argued with you... it comes down to the two expensive fit guys with some trade value.

The problem is Johnson isn't overpaid, he's just signed for too long. I have a problem saying a guy is a bad "bang for your buck" when he's not overpaid. Maatta is currently horrible bang for your buck, because he's offering borderline nothing of positive value right now. Johnson at least offers something positive. In the last couple of games, I have not seen Maatta do something well once. He constantly passes pucks into the skates of forwards, only is good for a logo snipe when he's shooting the puck and looks even slower than he has in the past.

I don't think its unreasonable to suggest that one doesn't want dmen who bad shot suppressors and bad puck movers.

I think it is unreasonable to judge players based solely on their shot suppression and puck moving talent, even if I do think this team lacks in puck moving talent. Relative to the rest of the defense, Johnson really isn't a problem right now, so I don't get why people are still complaining about him. Fix the rest of the defense and then circle back to the Johnson problem, because JJ is problem #3 on the defense right now (#4 if you think not playing Riikola counts).

Like I said a couple of days ago, Johnson is the reincarnation of 2013 Brooks Orpik. He is what he is. Once you fix the problem of players underperforming on your defense, namely Maatta and Oleksiak, then circle back to addressing that situation.

 

[Will Hunting]

Maatta is better than Johnson, come on.

Not sure about that, man.

 

[UnrealMachine]

5on5 iCF/60: 9.33 vs 9.28

Wow, it really is a tossup between Maatta & Johnson. Oh wait, there are other stats.

5on5 GA/60: 2.45 vs 3.51
5on5 P/60: 0.82 vs 0.34
5on5 GF% 56.3 vs 38.0

 

[Clare2904]

Wilson sent to WBS so presume Simon is good to go

 

[Empoleon8771]

Wilson sent to WBS so presume Simon is good to go

It could also mean that Simon is close, they do have Grant as an extra body. I'm actually surprised Wilson was in over Grant last night tbh. I could see them wanting to swap Grant and Wilson to get a fresh body in after last night, and since Simon is so close to being back, they might as well just send down Wilson.

 

[Fogel]

Johnson's salary is closer to a #3 and a #4 than a #5, look at capfriendly. He is overpaid, overtermed and given way too many minutes.

 

[Pancakes]

Why would he want to ship out Johnson? Contrary to the advanced stats watchers, Johnson hasn't been terrible this year and he has been a lot stronger recently. He's perfectly fine as a #5 defenseman, he's just signed for way too long.

I don't think he's as bad as people say but that contract is an abomination and he's still not exactly good.

 

[Pancakes]

Maatta is better than Johnson, come on.

Normally there's no question Maatta is better but this year Maatta's possession stats have actually been every bit as bad as JJ's.

And I know that's not all there is to a player. I'd say the eye test further confirms what the stats say. How many times have all of us lost our minds watching Maatta play horribly this year? I know this board overreacts to a lot of stuff, but Maatta's play is not one of them imo.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Johnson's salary is closer to a #3 and a #4 than a #5, look at capfriendly. He is overpaid, overtermed and given way too many minutes.

No it's not, that's just wrong. $3.25 million is completely #5 salaries at this point. Go look at what other UFAs have gotten in free agency, what JJ got is completely in line with #5 defensemen. #3 defensemen got more than $3.25 million when the cap was at $55 million, let alone $80 million like it is now.

Just in the last couple of off-seasons, you've seen Moore ($2.75 million), Del Zotto ($3 million), Hainsey ($3 million), Daley ($3.167 million), Lovejoy ($2.67 million), Coburn ($3.7 million) and Girardi ($3 million) get similar money to Johnson as UFAs. The best player in that group is Moore, who was a #4D who has performed really well for the Bruins this year. Most of them are fringe #4/5 D.

I don't think he's as bad as people say but that contract is an abomination and he's still not exactly good.

Term yes, money no. I don't make a big deal out of the term because I don't think it's all that likely that he plays out the entirety of that contract here.

 

[wej20]

Johnson's salary is closer to a #3 and a #4 than a #5, look at capfriendly. He is overpaid, overtermed and given way too many minutes.

I'd say his salary is more #4/5. Haven't looked through Capfriendly but I think almost every team will have 3 dmen making more than him, and a few will have 4. He's certainly got too much term, I'd love to know what other offers he got over the summer. I can't imagine any GM offering more than 4 per year, or more than 3 years.

 

[Pancakes]

Term yes, money no. I don't make a big deal out of the term because I don't think it's all that likely that he plays out the entirety of that contract here.

Even if he doesn't, that likely means we have to waste assets to get rid of a bad contract, or else possibly buy him out if they allow compliance buyouts or whatever in the next lockout (if there is one).

He's definitely gonna be the biggest whipping boy here since Kunitz though the longer he stays.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'd say his salary is more #4/5. Haven't looked through Capfriendly but I think almost every team will have 3 dmen making more than him, and a few will have 4. He's certainly got too much term, I'd love to know what other offers he got over the summer. I can't imagine any GM offering more than 4 per year, or more than 3 years.

Yeah I looked at the numbers, this is exactly correct. He makes about the same as guys like Hainsey, Daley and Del Zotto, who were signed as fringe #4/5. The problem is the term, he should have gotten $3.25 million on a 3 year deal or shorter, not a 5 year deal.

Even if he doesn't, that likely means we have to waste assets to get rid of a bad contract, or else possibly buy him out if they allow compliance buyouts or whatever in the next lockout (if there is one).

He's definitely gonna be the biggest whipping boy here since Kunitz though the longer he stays.

I don't think the Penguins will have to waste assets to trade him unless his play falls off a cliff, he just doesn't make enough money. Or rather, I don't think they'd have to waste significant assets to get rid of Johnson, I can't see them having to say sink Jarry in 2 years to trade Johnson for a 3rd. I think it's more likely Seattle takes him in the expansion draft than anything else. They're going to be starved for good defensemen and Johnson can at least eat minutes.

 

[Icarium]

In three years Sid and Geno will be too old to carry this team on their backs, JJ being here will help us tank properly. Everybody wins.

 

[Turin]

Normally there's no question Maatta is better but this year Maatta's possession stats have actually been every bit as bad as JJ's.

And I know that's not all there is to a player. I'd say the eye test further confirms what the stats say. How many times have all of us lost our minds watching Maatta play horribly this year? I know this board overreacts to a lot of stuff, but Maatta's play is not one of them imo.

Oh he’s been horrid this year, but I view Maatta generally as a mediocre player who can be a good bottom pair guy or be competent on your second pair. Put him with Oleksiak and he’s not good enough to handle that. Johnson just makes every pair worse.

 

[Pancakes]

I don't think the Penguins will have to waste assets to trade him unless his play falls off a cliff, he just doesn't make enough money. Or rather, I don't think they'd have to waste significant assets to get rid of Johnson, I can't see them having to say sink Jarry in 2 years to trade Johnson for a 3rd. I think it's more likely Seattle takes him in the expansion draft than anything else. They're going to be starved for good defensemen and Johnson can at least eat minutes.

It's really hard to say what our roster will look like in a few years so it's hard to say if JJ would be taken or not. If Kessel is moved before then for example (say, for a defenseman) then that really changes how we'd do the protection process. Ditto if Maatta or Schultz moves out. If we were doing it this year I imagine the Pens would protect Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Rust, Hornqvist, Guentzel, Pearson, Letang, Maatta, and Dumoulin.

But if they traded Kessel for a defenseman and kept Maatta then I would think they'd want to do 8 skaters rather than 7 f and 3 d. So who the hell knows really. I suspect our roster will be quite different by the time that draft rolls around.

Right now though if we did it we'd be losing Schultz before JJ I would think.

 

[Andy99]

In three years Sid and Geno will be too old to carry this team on their backs, JJ being here will help us tank properly. Everybody wins.

I think they're showing they are too old now to carry the team....

 

[Empoleon8771]

It's really hard to say what our roster will look like in a few years so it's hard to say if JJ would be taken or not. If Kessel is moved before then for example (say, for a defenseman) then that really changes how we'd do the protection process. Ditto if Maatta or Schultz moves out. If we were doing it this year I imagine the Pens would protect Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Rust, Hornqvist, Guentzel, Pearson, Letang, Maatta, and Dumoulin.

But if they traded Kessel for a defenseman and kept Maatta then I would think they'd want to do 8 skaters rather than 7 f and 3 d. So who the hell knows really. I suspect our roster will be quite different by the time that draft rolls around.

Right now though if we did it we'd be losing Schultz before JJ I would think.

Wouldn't Schultz not be under contract at that point? I'm not sure if the Penguins re-sign him anyway.

There's a lot that can chance in the next 3 years, so I think it's really difficult to predict. How are Pettersson and Riikola going to progress? If they're top-4 defenseman in 3 years, then you'd imagine they'd definitely be protected. Are Schultz and Maatta even going to be here by then? What's going to happen with Murray? Is Jarry still going to be here? Who on the forward roster who is currently here will also be here in 3 years? It's just hard to say. I just think if he's not a compliance buyout, he's going to Seattle. If he's not going to Seattle either, I think he's spending out the entirety of his contract here.

 

[Pancakes]

Wouldn't Schultz not be under contract at that point? I'm not sure if the Penguins re-sign him anyway.

There's a lot that can chance in the next 3 years, so I think it's really difficult to predict. How are Pettersson and Riikola going to progress? If they're top-4 defenseman in 3 years, then you'd imagine they'd definitely be protected. Are Schultz and Maatta even going to be here by then? What's going to happen with Murray? Is Jarry still going to be here? Who on the forward roster who is currently here will also be here in 3 years? It's just hard to say. I just think if he's not a compliance buyout, he's going to Seattle. If he's not going to Seattle either, I think he's spending out the entirety of his contract here.

Having that contract shouldn't be crippling as long as we fix the rest of the defense. You can have one JJ, Maatta, or Oleksiak on a d. The problem is half of our d is that kind of player.

If we had like 4 puck moving d and 2 JJ/Oleksiak/Maatta types I'd be ok with that. JJ will at least be useful in the playoffs because once they stop calling penalties a guy like him will be able to absolutely maul people. Orpik and Gill and Scuderi always became infinitely more useful when penalties stopped being called.

JJ has a reputation of being a big game player as well so who knows maybe he will bring that for us if we make it.

 

[The Old Master]

I think they're showing they are too old now to carry the team....

I think they still can for a short period of time. but they need to start an influx of young cheep skilled kids if they want to have any chance going forward.

 

[MrBurghundy]

Maatta is better than Johnson, come on.

I have no idea how you can say that based on performance to date this season.