We know from analyses of excess deaths over expected deaths that COVID deaths are probably being UNDERESTIMATED.
Update April 21st: today’s data release refers to the week ending the
10th April (week 14)
- Total deaths all ages in week fifteen, 18,516.
- Week 15 deaths are increased by approximately 75% more than expected at this time of year, RR 1.75 (95% CI 1.71 to 1.80; p<0.0001) compared with the average of the 5 previous years (10,520 deaths occurred in week 14 over the last 5 yrs).
- Respiratory deaths 1,810 in week 15: a decrease of 298 (14%) compared with the previous week.
- 6,213 deaths in week 13 had COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate.
- 70% of all the deaths occurred in over 75-year-olds (13,075 of 18,615)
- In the previous peak of deaths in week 2 (10th Jan) 14,058 deaths occurred with 2,477 respiratory deaths.
So excess deaths = 7,994
Reported COVID deaths 6,213
England and Wales mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak - Update 21st April - CEBM
Weekly counts of deaths from all causes were examined, including deaths due to COVID-19. As many deaths due to COVID-19 may be assigned to other causes of deaths (for example, if COVID-19 was not mentioned on the death certificate as a suspected cause of death), tracking all-cause mortality can provide information about whether an excess number of deaths is observed, even when COVID-19 mortality may be undercounted. These estimates can also provide information about deaths that may be indirectly related to COVID-19. For example, if deaths due to other causes may increase as a result of health care shortages due to COVID-19. Additionally, deaths from all causes
excluding COVID-19 were also estimated. These counts excluded deaths with an underlying cause of U07.1. Deaths with a multiple or contributing cause of U07.1 were included; therefore counts may not match counts of COVID-19 deaths reported elsewhere that include deaths with a multiple cause of death code of U07.1. Only about 5% of death records where U07.1 is present do not include it as the underlying cause of death.
Comparing these two sets of estimates—excess deaths with and without COVID-19—can provide insight about how many excess deaths are identified as due to COVID-19, and how many excess deaths are due to other causes of death. These deaths could represent misclassified COVID-19 deaths, or potentially could be indirectly related to COVID-19. Additionally, death certificates are often initially submitted without a cause of death, and then updated when cause of death information becomes available. It may be the case that some excess deaths that are not attributed directly to COVID-19 will be updated in coming weeks with cause-of-death information that includes COVID-19. These analyses will be updated periodically, and the numbers presented will change as more data are received.
Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19
What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State?
So stop with today's conspiracy theory.