TheKingPin
Registered User
There is plenty of motivation there.
As of last night:
John Hopkins, 662,045 confirmed, 28,998 dead, 4.38% mortality rate
3,420,394 tested (though some may be multiples, especially health workers)
CDC (day lag) 632,220 confirmed, 26,930 dead, an additional 4,141 probable but not confirmed
4.25% mortality of confirmed, 4.91% including probable.
Even if half of infected aren't counted, that's a mortality rate > 2%, 2017-18 flu had a mortality rate of 0.13%
Hey, but lets open the country up without rapid and accurate testing (results within a few hours) universally available, no resources for tracing (especially across state lines) and no authority and monitoring in place to enforce isolation.
If you watch the John Hopkins map by population (rate, not total cases) you see an interesting phenomena of hot spots starting to appear away from the big metro centers - in two weeks I predict the rates in these areas will be similar to the big cities.
COVID-19 United States Cases by County
I'm staying home, but feel free to die for me.
There are reports that up to 80% are asymptomatic. There is no way the total infected is just double. No way. It’s easily in to the millions. The dead from it is pretty accurate. The death rate will be around 1% max imo. That’s still a lot but we got lucky it wasn’t more. Or that it didn’t cause paralysis or brain damage. Or cirrhosis. Or kidney failure. All those things are still on the table but this isn’t the worst thing that could have caused a pandemic. That many asymptotic is pretty telling.