All Purpose Coronavirus Discussion Part IX: [READ SITE RULE IN OP] Monorail Business Is A Boomin

[TheKingPin]

LeBrun: Fans engage in tug-of-war over when NHL should...

There is plenty of motivation there.

As of last night:

John Hopkins, 662,045 confirmed, 28,998 dead, 4.38% mortality rate
3,420,394 tested (though some may be multiples, especially health workers)

CDC (day lag) 632,220 confirmed, 26,930 dead, an additional 4,141 probable but not confirmed
4.25% mortality of confirmed, 4.91% including probable.

Even if half of infected aren't counted, that's a mortality rate > 2%, 2017-18 flu had a mortality rate of 0.13%

Hey, but lets open the country up without rapid and accurate testing (results within a few hours) universally available, no resources for tracing (especially across state lines) and no authority and monitoring in place to enforce isolation.

If you watch the John Hopkins map by population (rate, not total cases) you see an interesting phenomena of hot spots starting to appear away from the big metro centers - in two weeks I predict the rates in these areas will be similar to the big cities.

COVID-19 United States Cases by County

I'm staying home, but feel free to die for me.

There are reports that up to 80% are asymptomatic. There is no way the total infected is just double. No way. It’s easily in to the millions. The dead from it is pretty accurate. The death rate will be around 1% max imo. That’s still a lot but we got lucky it wasn’t more. Or that it didn’t cause paralysis or brain damage. Or cirrhosis. Or kidney failure. All those things are still on the table but this isn’t the worst thing that could have caused a pandemic. That many asymptotic is pretty telling.

 

[kudymen]

Every day I keep catching up with corona threads, always have to read 15 pages. And it is always fun. Cant invest in monorails though... :-/

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Every day I keep catching up with corona threads, always have to read 15 pages. And it is always fun. Cant invest in monorails though... :-/

Why not?

 

[Starat327]

Why not?

Are monorails part of our platform now?

 

[kudymen]

Good news is that there will never be proper data for anyone to actually pat themselves on their back about "I was right, the rate was thiiiiiis low". Lots of cases are asymptomatic, officials (at least in CZE) love to talk about how "this guy had corona but actually he had sooooooooooo many other problems", various countries do not look for corona in fatalities who were not positively tested prior death (or were asymptomatic; Italy doesnt even have capacities to do that) etc.
I.e. its a great talking point for internet pissing match - but there is (or will be) hardly enough sufficient, quality data to support claim of either side of the argument.

 

[mja]

There is plenty of motivation there.



There are reports that up to 80% are asymptomatic. There is no way the total infected is just double. No way. It’s easily in to the millions. The dead from it is pretty accurate. The death rate will be around 1% max imo. That’s still a lot but we got lucky it wasn’t more. Or that it didn’t cause paralysis or brain damage. Or cirrhosis. Or kidney failure. All those things are still on the table but this isn’t the worst thing that could have caused a pandemic. That many asymptotic is pretty telling.

Reports on numbers of asymptomatic should viewed cautiously. First, reports have been bouncing that number all the way from 20% to 80%, that I've seen. That's quite an enormous MOE. Secondly, how many of those are false positives, how many are presymptomatic vs. asymptomatic, etc.? We need vastly expanded testing capacity to have the best possible data on hand if we're going to be able to make informed decisions moving forward, and this administration seems completely incapable of addressing that.

 

[Starat327]

Good news is that there will never be proper data for anyone to actually pat themselves on their back about "I was right, the rate was thiiiiiis low". Lots of cases are asymptomatic, officials (at least in CZE) love to talk about how "this guy had corona but actually he had sooooooooooo many other problems", various countries do not look for corona in fatalities who were not positively tested prior death (or were asymptomatic; Italy doesnt even have capacities to do that) etc.
I.e. its a great talking point for internet pissing match - but there is (or will be) hardly enough sufficient, quality data to support claim of either side of the argument.

Yeah, I hear you... but i was totally right, and we didnt need to do all these extreme measures.

 

[kudymen]

Why not?

I cant see myself supporting that industry, remembering the great North Haverbrook disaster

 

[Jack Straw]

Your daily dose of cute animal vid/gif, I used to do this as a kid edition.

This might be the cutest thing in the history of cuteness.

 

[kudymen]

Yeah, I hear you... but i was totally right, and we didnt need to do all these extreme measures.

Fascist. I agree. But fascist.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Are monorails part of our platform now?

Not sure they're our platform but they're in our portfolio.

 

[Starat327]

This might be the cutest thing in the history of cuteness.

I want one that just stays like this fur-ever.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

It was from like a month ago so things could have definitely changed but a study at that time was estimating the death rate might 0.66% when accounting for unconfirmed cases too.

It was still noticeably deadlier than the flu even with that estimation.

 

[Starat327]

Not sure they're our platform but they're in our portfolio.

Well, if theyre in our portfolio, we probably shouldnt push it as part of our platform - conflict of interest, and all.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Well, if theyre in our portfolio, we probably shouldnt push it as part of our platform - conflict of interest, and all.

Nope, we do the exact opposite. People love crooked politicians. They've been voting for them for years.

Oops, this wasn't a PM.

 

[kudymen]

Well, if theyre in our portfolio, we probably shouldnt push it as part of our platform - conflict of interest, and all.

Which reminds me of a loooool thing but you know who owes one of the bigger newspaper outlets in CZE, and whose chemical-industry companies are selling disinfection gels among many other things)?

Spoiler

Czech prime minister. (actually.. he is a Slovak. Because why not)

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Curious how you think this'll affect your line of business -- We're doing some revenue modeling/forecasting for whatever the new 'normal' ends up being, and they all kind of revolve around x% of the workforce continuing to work from home even after all this is done. It's less overhead for the company, a great perk for the employee, etc. Obviously, that has corresponding effects on your side of things - are you guys getting increased requests for stuff along those lines?

It's not really much more work for the security end of things today if you were set up properly. Most companies weren't, though. We had disaster and WFH guidelines in place and updated already. It was really hardware availability that suddenly became an issue, then support tickets as users ran into issues. Luckily for me, we don't handle any of that. Now when the corporate workload returns to normal and going forward on an industry-wide scale:

We're already hiring. There's just going to be too much of a need and too many budget increases for me to justify staying where I am. Startups are easy cash, but now there are going to be established companies throwing money around. I've never been interested in the former, but this is a completely different playing field.

 

[Starat327]

Nope, we do the exact opposite. People love crooked politicians. They've been voting for them for years.

Oops, this wasn't a PM.

Oh, crud.

 

[landsbergfan]

Oh, crud.

One of you is going to have to take the fall

 

[Starat327]

Which reminds me of a loooool thing but you know who owes one of the bigger newspaper outlets in CZE, and whose chemical-industry companies are selling disinfection gels among many other things)?

Spoiler

Czech prime minister. (actually.. he is a Slovak. Because why not)

Czech, slovak.. all the same up until recently anyway, amirite?

On a more serious note - thats absolutely horrid. Though, i'm sure thats more commonplace that we care to even think about, to be honest.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Are monorails part of our platform now?

Not sure they're our platform but they're in our portfolio.

Nope, we do the exact opposite. People love crooked politicians. They've been voting for them for years.

Oops, this wasn't a PM.

*ahem*

I'm just going to say this...

The coming election has very little to nothing to do with the Coronavirus. Please don't discuss it.

 

[kudymen]

Czech, slovak.. all the same up until recently anyway, amirite?

On a more serious note - thats absolutely horrid. Though, i'm sure thats more commonplace that we care to even think about, to be honest.

There are way many stories that are bitter-funny about him and his political party, but I will say this. His gimmick is a red cap (lol?), big social media presence (lol??) and the EU talking about his obvious conflict of interest is "The EU's hateful campaign against him" (lol???).

Funny how some things work everywhere. East, West...

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

BREAKING NEWS:
Sources: Vice President/President Hopeful Ruled Ineligible Due To Not Reaching The Age Requirement

According to multiple confirmed sources, it has been determined that Presidential/Vice Presidential hopeful @Striiker has been ruled out of the race due to not meeting the minimum age requirement to hold office.

Please stand by as this is an ongoing situation and we will get you more information as it comes in.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Man... you hate to see that.

 

[Starat327]

It's not really much more work for the security end of things today if you were set up properly. Most companies weren't, though. We had disaster and WFH guidelines in place and updated already. It was really hardware availability that suddenly became an issue, then support tickets as users ran into issues. Luckily for me, we don't handle any of that. Now when the corporate workload returns to normal and going forward on an industry-wide scale:

We're already hiring. There's just going to be too much of a need and too many budget increases for me to justify staying where I am. Startups are easy cash, but now there are going to be established companies throwing money around. I've never been interested in the former, but this is a completely different playing field.

Yeah, I have a buddy who works at the federal courthouse in their IT department, he said it was an absolute nightmare when they switched to work from home. They had no policies, no procedures, and honestly, not even enough equipment to give everyone the tools they needed to appropriately work from home. They were giving people tablets to use as laptops, because they had no choice. Meanwhile, he regularly gets calls from judges saying "my printer wont print" and it turns out they dont even have the printer turned on.

Yeah, the forecasting model im using is a roughly 30% rate of people never actually coming 'back' to work. I imagine that does wonders for the IT (in general) world, as you have companies forcing people to work from home who arent really used to that idea, and can't troubleshoot basic things. I dont fault you at all for taking advantage of whats going on. People can bitch and moan about how serious this is or isn't, but theres no denying that its going to have a lasting effect on the way we go about our lives. Whatever 'normal' was wont exist again for a long time, if ever.