Player Discussion Adam Larsson (Hall talk will result in a thread ban)

[Little Fury]

Kind of confused here.

Are people argueing Larsson is bad?

Bad? No. Just extremely limited especially in today's game.

He is not an offensive defenseman and is unlikley to ever be considered one but I would be shocked if he didn't improve. Who knows how much, it's impossible to say. If Larsson got 50+ points as well as being as good as he defensively he would win the Norris. Or would if he wasn't an Oiler.

What's improving? Hitting 20 points?

With Sekera out he is our clear cut #1 by a considerable margin. He is very obviously a top 3 on almost any team, and with any kind of decent offensive defenseman he easily looks like a legit #2 to my eye.

Therein lies the problem. We need klef or Nurse to take a massive step forward because if Adam Larsson is your best D, your team has problems.

I would say most people underestimate how good his overall game is. I remember going to the Devils boards and seeing how many were disappointed he was leaving thier organization even for Taylor Hall coming back. If you dont fixate on points his game is awesome.

Stay at home guys who don't take risks with the puck tend to look really good by the eye test, especially if they also throw a big hit now and then.

Not to say he's bad, or that he doesn't add value, but it's not clear if he helps the team win games as opposed to just helping them not lose.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

If it is a supposed strength then I haven't seen much of it. This team still has massive problems getting the puck up to the forwards and often the best plan of attack is just to give the puck to McDavid and get it out of the D's hands entirely from our own blue line, lol.

This team sucks at outletting the puck.

There was a comment made by Gulutzan about the team playing a faster system. Again I wonder how much of our issues were system related? Our special teams clearly had systematic issues, so why do we give our ES systems a pass? Just because Connor was an ES monster? IMO there is much improvement to be made on the coaching part of the game. This season will be telling for a number of players.

 

[guymez]

There was a comment made by Gulutzan about the team playing a faster system. Again I wonder how much of our issues were system related? Our special teams clearly had systematic issues, so why do we give our ES systems a pass? Just because Connor was an ES monster? IMO there is much improvement to be made on the coaching part of the game. This season will be telling for a number of players.

I somewhat agree with this but there is a flaw in your analysis IMO.

The team wasnt executing much of anything last season.
Therein lies the rub for me. How can anyone possibly evaluate a system when its being executed 50 % of the time?
Take the PK for example....the team was executing at a top level (best in the NHL) on the road but couldn't execute at all at home (worst in the NHL).

That is clear and strong evidence of a player issue. Considering the success the 2016/2017 season and the total ***t show of this past season I am left thinking that last season was more of an outlier in many regards.
A year of growth....of learning.

If this team had shown up as just committed and focused on what it took to win last season (as they did the previous year) the outcome would have been much different.
No doubt in my mind about that. So I am very resistant to use last season as a barometer for what needs to change systemically and especially in terms of evaluating players. Its a fools game IMO.

Player commitment and buy in first....systems second.

Evidence of what I am suggesting will be witnessed this season. If I am right then I think we will see a total turnaround this season. I am very comfortable waiting to see how things play out even if no other changes are made.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

I somewhat agree with this but there is a flaw in your analysis IMO.

The team wasnt executing much of anything last season.
Therein lies the rub for me. How can anyone possibly evaluate a system when its being executed 50 % of the time?
Take the PK for example....the team was executing at a top level (best in the NHL) on the road but couldn't execute at all at home (worst in the NHL).

That is clear and strong evidence of a player issue. Considering the success the 2016/2017 season and the total ***t show of this past season I am left thinking that last season was more of an outlier in many regards.
A year of growth....of learning.

If this team had shown up as just committed and focused on what it took to win last season (as they did the previous year) the outcome would have been much different.
No doubt in my mind about that. So I am very resistant to use last season as a barometer for what needs to change systemically and especially in terms of evaluating players. Its a fools game IMO.

Player commitment and buy in first....systems second.

Evidence of what I am suggesting will be witnessed this season. If I am right then I think we will see a total turnaround this season. I am very comfortable waiting to see how things play out even if no other changes are made.

You can look at it that way however I look at Todd and feel that one of his weaknesses is changing things up on the fly. He comes across as stubborn and unwilling to change until it's the last resort or it's too late to change. I am not sure why there was such a difference on the PK at home vs. on the road, did it have to do with Talbot? Regardless our PK was garbage until our season was sunk. If teams made adjustments for our systems and we couldn't counter them, that would explain why for the most part only the sheer brilliance of McDavid shone through last season.

 

[guymez]

You can look at it that way however I look at Todd and feel that one of his weaknesses is changing things up on the fly. He comes across as stubborn and unwilling to change until it's the last resort or it's too late to change. I am not sure why there was such a difference on the PK at home vs. on the road, did it have to do with Talbot? Regardless our PK was garbage until our season was sunk. If teams made adjustments for our systems and we couldn't counter them, that would explain why for the most part only the sheer brilliance of McDavid shone through last season.

Every coach has their flaws....from Babcock to Trotz. The deal is to see if a coach can learn and adjust over time. Thats the mark of a really good coach IMO. That said if the players dont show up then the coaching becomes irrelevant.
As for the PK...how many explanations can there be?
Is it the system....nope. If it was then there would not have been such a wild discrepancy. If the player buyin isnt there then IMO that is an obvious explanation. There were other elements in their game last season that reflected a lack of buy in. Hell...I was saying that very thing from game 10 of last season. It was clear to me then that if that one thing didnt change the season was done...nothing else mattered.

So this upcoming season their buyin will be evident very quickly and that one element will change the outcome of this season if it changes in a positive direction.
I think it will. This team has every reason to be very motivated and committed this season.

 

[AM]

Well the theory was 23 is the cutoff, not games. Cant blame Larsson for being more NHL ready at a much younger age. I have hope in Lars and still think he will become a solid top2 guy.

From my eye, defencemen develop past 23. In fact 28 would seem like a good number to consider for potential growth.

However, if you are just looking at points it might not be the case.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Every coach has their flaws....from Babcock to Trotz. The deal is to see if a coach can learn and adjust over time. Thats the mark of a really good coach IMO. That said if the players dont show up then the coaching becomes irrelevant.
As for the PK...how many explanations can there be?
Is it the system....nope. If it was then there would not have been such a wild discrepancy. If the player buyin isnt there then IMO that is an obvious explanation. There were other elements in their game last season that reflected a lack of buy in. Hell...I was saying that very thing from game 10 of last season. It was clear to me then that if that one thing didnt change the season was done...nothing else mattered.

So this upcoming season their buyin will be evident very quickly and that one element will change the outcome of this season if it changes in a positive direction.
I think it will. This team has every reason to be very motivated and committed this season.

IMO Todd lost the team after game 2 or 3 last season when he called out McDavid and Draisaitl. As for the PK, didn't it improve dramatically when Todd finally made changes later in the season? Perhaps the trade of Letestu also helped?

 

[guymez]

IMO Todd lost the team after game 2 or 3 last season when he called out McDavid and Draisaitl. As for the PK, didn't it improve dramatically when Todd finally made changes later in the season? Perhaps the trade of Letestu also helped?

How can a coach that brought the team to a game from the Western final lose the team in the first 3 games of the following season? That just doesnt make sense.

I think it was the PP that improved after Todd took it over. That could have been a systems change or just the fact that Todd took over may have gotten the players attention. Sometimes dismissing a coach of their duties is enough to shake up the players and get their attention.

In any event its just as easy to be positive about this season as it is to be negative IMO.

 

[Little Fury]

From my eye, defencemen develop past 23. In fact 28 would seem like a good number to consider for potential growth.

However, if you are just looking at points it might not be the case.

There's fewer spots open to D men so they tend to break into the league later than forwards (of the 52 players who played this past season who were 20 years old or younger, 10 were D and only 5 played more than 40 games). Without checking, I'd bet most D men don't even establish themselves as full time players until around 22-23 years old. So it's less that they develop and more they don't get the chance to play. So while you can say an average 25 year old may not have peaked, I'm not sure it applies here.

 

[ThePhoenixx]

He's alright, probably a little overrated. He makes a lot of mistakes here and there that don't get picked on as much, if it was Klefbom or Nurse people would be upset.

His outlet pass is also lacking, it's been underwhelming and it's still a huge bottleneck for this team that the D cannot get the puck up to McDavid or Draisaitl in stride. Guess we are stuck waiting a few years for Bouchard to get his legs underneath before that is properly improved upon.

It's as if we don't even watch the same player.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Larsson at ES over the past 7 seasons compared to the 210 NHL dmen with the most TOI at ES over those 7 seasons:

RelT GF/60 +0.16
RelT GA/60 -0.15

7th most difficult zone starts ratio. 0.4396
94th in QoC: xGF% QoC 49.83
108th in quality of teammates xGF% QoT 50.03
77th in GF% 51.52
32nd in RelT GF% +4.53


Looking at his difficult zone starts ratio combined with his slightly above average quality of competition... he's done well to benefit his team both offensively and defensively while he's on the ice.

He's a strong net positive for his team.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

How can a coach that brought the team to a game from the Western final lose the team in the first 3 games of the following season? That just doesnt make sense.

I think it was the PP that improved after Todd took it over. That could have been a systems change or just the fact that Todd took over may have gotten the players attention. Sometimes dismissing a coach of their duties is enough to shake up the players and get their attention.

In any event its just as easy to be positive about this season as it is to be negative IMO.

Crapping on them publicly.

 

[guymez]

Crapping on them publicly.

It was justified IMO. The team follows both of those players and aside from game 1 they were terrible. How they go the team goes. They are team leaders.
Besides...if that very minor incident hurt Leon's and Connor's sensibilities then this team is in deep trouble.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

It was justified IMO. The team follows both of those players and aside from game 1 they were terrible. How they go the team goes. They are team leaders.
Besides...if that very minor incident hurt Leon's and Connor's sensibilities then this team is in deep trouble.

There was no need to do it publicly IMO.

 

[guymez]

There was no need to do it publicly IMO.

I get what you're saying.

I can see that side of the argument.

McLellan is not a perfect coach....I dont agree with everything he does. That said I do think he is a smart coach and by that I mean a coach that is willing to learn.
So considering what I watched him have to deal with last season with the players and their overinflated sense of accomplishment I have some empathy for his situation.

I expected the team to take a step back last season...I just didnt expect things to unravel they way they did. That to me was a sign of emmotional immaturity and that makes sense considering that Draisaitl and McDavid (the true team leaders) are so emotionally young and inexperienced
Last season was necessary IMO.
In a way they are growing together as a team and I actually think thats a positive.
So I am using this season to see just how much McLellan and the players have learned.

 

[VainGretzky]

Last season was a rough one for him and most players here. The prior season he did very well in his role. His outlet pass has always been a supposed strength of his, I've seen him make good ones however I still wonder how much our coaching limited the effectiveness of our team as a whole.

I thought he was back to normal when he came back after his dads death , I think we will see a career year out of him I also have a good feeling about the team this year we will see a couple of players finally step up and play better then expected Rattie and Strome imo.

 

[Aerchon]

No one here is arguing that he's bad. They're arguing that he's a solid but one-dimensional second pairing dman that provides no offense, can't make a pass, and is a poor skater.

Rotflmao.

 

[guymez]

Rotflmao.

I second that. Mind busting unsupported ridiculousness.
Man...the season cant get started soon enough.

 

[HockeyGuy1964]

IMO Todd lost the team after game 2 or 3 last season when he called out McDavid and Draisaitl. As for the PK, didn't it improve dramatically when Todd finally made changes later in the season? Perhaps the trade of Letestu also helped?

Okay, Letestu was definitely the problem on the PK.

Now explain to us all how the Oilers had the #1 PK on the road while at the same time was running at 53% at home in late January. Perhaps Letestu didn't kill penalties on the road but I highly doubt it.

 

[LTIR]

I thought he was back to normal when he came back after his dads death , I think we will see a career year out of him I also have a good feeling about the team this year we will see a couple of players finally step up and play better then expected Rattie and Strome imo.

He was one of the best Dman at the worlds and was a big part in his teams gold medal win. Haters are gonna hate.. He doesnt need to score 20pts to be comsidered a top pairing Dman in Edmonton. We have him locked up at a bargain.
Bashing him for his points is comparable to bashing McDavid for not scoring enough SH goals. Its not his game. Give him top PP minutes and zone starts if u want offense from him. Then be prepared to pay him 8M per if he scores 40 pts.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Okay, Letestu was definitely the problem on the PK.

Now explain to us all how the Oilers had the #1 PK on the road while at the same time was running at 53% at home in late January. Perhaps Letestu didn't kill penalties on the road but I highly doubt it.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure that the PK improved after Letestu was moved. I'm not laying the blame at his feet but it seems like a change in systems and personnel finally got things to be somewhat respectable.

 

[guymez]

Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure that the PK improved after Letestu was moved. I'm not laying the blame at his feet but it seems like a change in systems and personnel finally got things to be somewhat respectable.

It didnt though.
In the final analysis the PK issues had very little to do with systems. Its a problem for those posters
(not sure if you are in this group or not) that dont like McLellan though...lol

 

[Bryanbryoil]

It didnt though.
In the final analysis the PK issues had very little to do with systems. Its a problem for those posters
(not sure if you are in this group or not) that dont like McLellan though...lol

I'm pretty sure that I heard or read that Todd took over the PK later in the year and the results were much improved. Do you think that tactics weren't changed and the players just listened to Todd? Were we still playing a diamond PK at seasons end?

 

[GodPucker]

Kind of confused here.

Are people argueing Larsson is bad?

He is not an offensive defenseman and is unlikley to ever be considered one but I would be shocked if he didn't improve. Who knows how much, it's impossible to say. If Larsson got 50+ points as well as being as good as he defensively he would win the Norris. Or would if he wasn't an Oiler.

With Sekera out he is our clear cut #1 by a considerable margin. He is very obviously a top 3 on almost any team, and with any kind of decent offensive defenseman he easily looks like a legit #2 to my eye.

I would say most people underestimate how good his overall game is. I remember going to the Devils boards and seeing how many were disappointed he was leaving thier organization even for Taylor Hall coming back. If you dont fixate on points his game is awesome.

On the plus if his offense doesn't improve we should be able to sign him relatively cheap for his next contract.

It's revision history. People think we traded a hart trophy winner for Adam. He turned into that 2 years later after admitting he needed a kick in the rear end.

 

[guymez]

I'm pretty sure that I heard or read that Todd took over the PK later in the year and the results were much improved. Do you think that tactics weren't changed and the players just listened to Todd? Were we still playing a diamond PK at seasons end?

That was the PP you are thinking about. Johnson was relived of that duty..
What I saw all season was a team that wasnt commuted to doing what it takes to win battles. That completely explains why the same PK using the same system was #1 on the road and garbage at home.
That is 100% on the players.

Larsson was one of those players who was really bad and not just on the PK.
I am expecting a lot of other players to step up this season and Larsson might be at the front of that pack.
He is so much better than he showed last season...I am quite sure he knows that.