Player Discussion Adam Larsson (Hall talk will result in a thread ban)

[Joey Moss]

Elite players show elite ability before age 23, top pairing D show top pairing ability before age 23. Basically if you are a middle pairing D at age 23 (ability wise, not because coach decisions or they are in a stacked D core), you will be a middle pairing D going forward. Development typically peaks at age 25. So Larsson would have to be the big outlier if he were to become a #1 D or even #2 D

Off the top of my head.. Stralman, Hjalmarsson, Giordano, Muzzin, Miller, Manson all defenseman who took their game to another level past the age of 23. It's not that uncommon you're just being stubborn.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Off the top of my head.. Stralman, Hjalmarsson, Giordano, Muzzin, Miller, Manson all defenseman who took their game to another level past the age of 23. It's not that uncommon you're just being stubborn.

Ace seems to be on a kick to invent the past, so I would take it all with a grain of salt.

Anyone have any article or news on how he's been doing in the offseason, months out of the tragedy he when through?

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Similar offense, similar defence. Offense for Larsson is more impressive than outside fans try and make out, but his defensive abilities are overblown by Oiler fans

Larsson has more goals last year than Smid had in 5 seasons in the NHL...not sure where the offense is even "similar"
(and Larsson isn't even an ofensive d-man)

 

[Fourier]

Elite players show elite ability before age 23, top pairing D show top pairing ability before age 23. Basically if you are a middle pairing D at age 23 (ability wise, not because coach decisions or they are in a stacked D core), you will be a middle pairing D going forward. Development typically peaks at age 25. So Larsson would have to be the big outlier if he were to become a #1 D or even #2 D

He is a number 2 in my eyes because of his defensive game. And at ES he is not nearly as much of a black hole as many think. Over the last 4 years he is 59th in ES points ahead of guys like Vatanen. Defensively he is easily in the top 30 overall when he is healthy.

 

[Little Fury]

Off the top of my head.. Stralman, Hjalmarsson, Giordano, Muzzin, Miller, Manson all defenseman who took their game to another level past the age of 23. It's not that uncommon you're just being stubborn.

Duncan Keith, Brent Burns, Mark Giordano all disagree. And that's just off the top of my head.
Even this year's Norris winner Vicyor Hedman wasn't elite before 23 iirc he took a while to develop.

How many of those guys already had more than 400 NHL games under the belts when they took a big step forward?

For all intents and purposes, this season will be Larsson's sixth in the NHL. Given his role, it's pretty unlikely he develops much on the offensive side of things at this point. He is what he is.

That said I expect he'll hit a career high this year if he stays healthy just by virtue of being on the ice with McDavid.

 

[bone]

Duncan Keith, Brent Burns, Mark Giordano all disagree. And that's just off the top of my head.
Even this year's Norris winner Vicyor Hedman wasn't elite before 23 iirc he took a while to develop.

Of your examples the only ones show more by 23 were ones who started later, but any of them that had significant time by 25 had largely outproduced him. Odds of him turning elite (i.e. 50+ points, while decent defensely) are ridiculously small. He could still be a 30+ point producer, but that doesn't equate to elite. But hey I like having a 30+ point d-man who is strong physically and defensively.

 

[bone]

Off the top of my head.. Stralman, Hjalmarsson, Giordano, Muzzin, Miller, Manson all defenseman who took their game to another level past the age of 23. It's not that uncommon you're just being stubborn.

The comment was about elite. The closest to elite in your group is Giordano. Larsson already produces at Hjalmarsson level, Stralman's only had a couple seasons with more production, but most are in the same range as Larsson, Muzzin may be a good example because he was the same age as Larsson when he hit 40, but also only had 120 or so games as opposed to Larssons 400+, Miller broke out at 24 on a team where everyone broke out, how much is sustainable and again he only had about 100 games, not 400 games. Manson may be the closest comparable as same age but again only 200 games played.

I think the things working against Larsson is that he already has 400 games, I don't recall many guys who've had that many at bats all of the sudden doubling the offensive output.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Larsson has more goals last year than Smid had in 5 seasons in the NHL...not sure where the offense is even "similar"
(and Larsson isn't even an ofensive d-man)

Smid was never anywhere near as good as Larsson was 2 seasons ago. The only thing that Smid ever had on Larsson was skating.

 

[A91]

How many of those guys already had more than 400 NHL games under the belts when they took a big step forward?

For all intents and purposes, this season will be Larsson's sixth in the NHL. Given his role, it's pretty unlikely he develops much on the offensive side of things at this point. He is what he is.

That said I expect he'll hit a career high this year if he stays healthy just by virtue of being on the ice with McDavid.

Well the theory was 23 is the cutoff, not games. Cant blame Larsson for being more NHL ready at a much younger age. I have hope in Lars and still think he will become a solid top2 guy.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

I think the things working against Larsson is that he already has 400 games, I don't recall many guys who've had that many at bats all of the sudden doubling the offensive output.

While it would've been nice if Larsson became a 40 point defenseman for us what he does bring is a hard to play against rock defensively that can also break the puck out with good outlet passes. A guy like Larsson allows us to think about breaking in players like Bouchard and Bear as well as acquiring a guy like Faulk.

 

[Draiskull]

why does Larsson need to become a 40 pt player again? The guy gets paid to play defense. Play 25mins\game, go against top lines, punish opposition physically and be the go to guy on PK. If you want 40pts+ from him then you need to double his salary.

 

[ThePhoenixx]

Copy and paste this post every offseason from now until 2025. Players dont really move up tiers after age 23. So what weve seen out of him the past years is what well continue to get

Larsson is a Right-Hand version of Smid ( I dont say this to devalue Larsson, I loved Smid)

Defenceman do. They are what they are by around 26.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

why does Larsson need to become a 40 pt player again? The guy gets paid to play defense. Play 25mins\game, go against top lines, punish opposition physically and be the go to guy on PK. If you want 40pts+ from him then you need to double his salary.

I'll go one farther and say that he is a perfect compliment to a guy like Bouchard. One a shutdown defender and the other an offensive specialist.

 

[Soundwave]

Larsson is better than Smid, but I'd say he's more in that Steve Staois tier. A bit better defensively, but probably a bit worse offensively.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Defenceman do. They are what they are by around 26.

Petry and Souray come to mind as guys that took off later than 23.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Larsson is better than Smid, but I'd say he's more in that Steve Staois tier. A bit better defensively, but probably a bit worse offensively.

Staios had limitations defensively because he wasn't overly big. Man does Larsson ever get undersold here. He plays like Gator did minus being as tough when the gloves drop and is more skilled than Gator was.

 

[Soundwave]

Staios had limitations defensively because he wasn't overly big. Man does Larsson ever get undersold here. He plays like Gator did minus being as tough when the gloves drop and is more skilled than Gator was.

Yeah so a rich man's Jason Smith without probably the same level of leadership. Low offence, solid but unspectacular D.

 

[Little Fury]

Well the theory was 23 is the cutoff, not games. Cant blame Larsson for being more NHL ready at a much younger age. I have hope in Lars and still think he will become a solid top2 guy.

He's 25 with 400+GP. He is what he is. He might hit 30 points at some point, but he's not going to be a guy who you count on for offense because he doesn't have the tools and he's not going to get the opportunity, especially with Bear and Bouchard coming up behind him.

why does Larsson need to become a 40 pt player again? The guy gets paid to play defense. Play 25mins\game, go against top lines, punish opposition physically and be the go to guy on PK. If you want 40pts+ from him then you need to double his salary.

I'd like him to be a guy who can tilt the ice and not just soak up punishment.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Yeah so a rich man's Jason Smith without probably the same level of leadership. Low offence, solid but unspectacular D.

That is a very useful player in my eyes. Gator was our 2nd best D when we last went to the SCF's. As for unspectacular D, when he is healthy he is a ***** to play against. Do people not remember how he played Hall and Gaudreau in his first year here? I love how people complain about us moving out players after a down year and then expecting our current player that had a down year to just stay in the dumps the rest of his career.

 

[Soundwave]

That is a very useful player in my eyes. Gator was our 2nd best D when we last went to the SCF's. As for unspectacular D, when he is healthy he is a ***** to play against. Do people not remember how he played Hall and Gaudreau in his first year here? I love how people complain about us moving out players after a down year and then expecting our current player that had a down year to just stay in the dumps the rest of his career.

He's alright, probably a little overrated. He makes a lot of mistakes here and there that don't get picked on as much, if it was Klefbom or Nurse people would be upset.

His outlet pass is also lacking, it's been underwhelming and it's still a huge bottleneck for this team that the D cannot get the puck up to McDavid or Draisaitl in stride. Guess we are stuck waiting a few years for Bouchard to get his legs underneath before that is properly improved upon.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

He's alright, probably a little overrated. He makes a lot of mistakes here and there that don't get picked on as much, if it was Klefbom or Nurse people would be upset.

His outlet pass is also lacking, it's been underwhelming and it's still a huge bottleneck for this team that the D cannot get the puck up to McDavid or Draisaitl in stride. Guess we are stuck waiting a few years for Bouchard to get his legs underneath before that is properly improved upon.

Last season was a rough one for him and most players here. The prior season he did very well in his role. His outlet pass has always been a supposed strength of his, I've seen him make good ones however I still wonder how much our coaching limited the effectiveness of our team as a whole.

 

[Soundwave]

Last season was a rough one for him and most players here. The prior season he did very well in his role. His outlet pass has always been a supposed strength of his, I've seen him make good ones however I still wonder how much our coaching limited the effectiveness of our team as a whole.

If it is a supposed strength then I haven't seen much of it. This team still has massive problems getting the puck up to the forwards and often the best plan of attack is just to give the puck to McDavid and get it out of the D's hands entirely from our own blue line, lol.

This team sucks at outletting the puck.

 

[Aerchon]

Kind of confused here.

Are people argueing Larsson is bad?

He is not an offensive defenseman and is unlikley to ever be considered one but I would be shocked if he didn't improve. Who knows how much, it's impossible to say. If Larsson got 50+ points as well as being as good as he defensively he would win the Norris. Or would if he wasn't an Oiler.

With Sekera out he is our clear cut #1 by a considerable margin. He is very obviously a top 3 on almost any team, and with any kind of decent offensive defenseman he easily looks like a legit #2 to my eye.

I would say most people underestimate how good his overall game is. I remember going to the Devils boards and seeing how many were disappointed he was leaving thier organization even for Taylor Hall coming back. If you dont fixate on points his game is awesome.

On the plus if his offense doesn't improve we should be able to sign him relatively cheap for his next contract.

 

[StevenF1919]

Kind of confused here.

Are people argueing Larsson is bad?

He is not an offensive defenseman and is unlikley to ever be considered one but I would be shocked if he didn't improve. Who knows how much, it's impossible to say. If Larsson got 50+ points as well as being as good as he defensively he would win the Norris. Or would if he wasn't an Oiler.

With Sekera out he is our clear cut #1 by a considerable margin. He is very obviously a top 3 on almost any team, and with any kind of decent offensive defenseman he easily looks like a legit #2 to my eye.

I would say most people underestimate how good his overall game is. I remember going to the Devils boards and seeing how many were disappointed he was leaving thier organization even for Taylor Hall coming back. If you dont fixate on points his game is awesome.

On the plus if his offense doesn't improve we should be able to sign him relatively cheap for his next contract.

No one here is arguing that he's bad. They're arguing that he's a solid but one-dimensional second pairing dman that provides no offense, can't make a pass, and is a poor skater.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Adam is our best defensemen at actually defending. He is hard to play against, makes great defensive reads and makes his partner better.

He isn't an offensive dynamo, but he can absolutely make a pass.

He is a top pairing defender, but isn't a #1 and can't carry a pairing when the partner forgets to play. Ex, Klefbom last year