Speculation: Acq/ Rost. Bldg./ Cap Part XXX

[malyk]

Im having too much fun looking at these stats, but I was curious to see how many players good possession teams have at or above the 50% mark at 5v5 (playing at least 500 minutes this season).

Team|Corsi|Players >= 50% Corsi on team
Los Angeles Kings|56.8%|16
Chicago Blackhawks|55.5%|18
New Jersey Devils|54.1%|18
Boston Bruins|54%|15
San Jose Sharks|53.8%|16
St. Louis Blues|52.8%|12
Ottawa Senators |52.2%|18
New York Rangers|52.1%|14
Detroit Red Wings|51%|13
Dallas Stars|50.9%|11
Vancouver Canucks|50.9%|14
Carolina Hurricanes|50.7%|12
Tampa Bay Lightning|50.6%|10
Florida Panthers|50.4%|14
Columbus Blue Jackets|50.1%|11
Phoenix Coyotes|50%|8
Philadelphia Flyers|50%|7
Anaheim Ducks|50%|8
Winnipeg Jets|49.8%|8
New York Islanders|49.3%|8
Minnesota Wild|48.9%|5
Pittsburgh Penguins|48.5%|8
Nashville Predators|48.4%|4
Washington Capitals|48.4%|5
Montréal Canadiens|47.3%|5
Colorado Avalanche|46.9%|2
Calgary Flames|46.8%|5
Edmonton Oilers|44.7%|0
Buffalo Sabres|43.3%|0
Toronto Maple Leafs|43.1%|0

 

[txpd]

Piggybacking off what's being said on the Kings GDT, Derek Morris could be a perfect fit with Orlov.

If we have a coach who is ok with Orlov at RD, then Ehrhoff makes a lot of sense (although I don't know anything about recapture and retirement penalties).

I don't believe Derek Morris is the right player. He's an offensive player become a defensive player after losing his mobility and skill. Think Tom Poti at best.

He has only 4 nhl playoff experiences and only one season has won a series.

he's also too old for anything but a one year contract.

I'd take him cheap for the 3rd pair, but nothing beyond that

 

[txpd]

btw....love those fancy stats. makes green look good. so.....are the get green out of town fast guys all not fenwick and corsi fans?

 

[Mothra]

Oh my...Murphy was slothful and poor in his reads in the D zone. He'd be super spaced out at times and to top it off he played with little intensity and never hit anyone. He made his fair share of terrible lazy turnovers.

I know everything so therefore I know you. I know what you had for breakfast...Frosted Flakes with Banana!

52 should stay because he's a good player, we are short on top 4 D as a team and the whole league is short on top 4 D period.

If we must trade him we better have a replacement already here. Even after that we would still need another top 4 D.

Look around the league right now and tell me whats out there. The UFAs suck. There are a couple guys like a young struggling Edler (perhaps Myers too) and a vet like Ehrhoff on the trade block. But thats pretty much it.

Murphy was as you describe in Washington....he learned to make much quicker moves with the puck, especially on the dump in later in his career....to me thats not even in question

so what you are saying is the only decent D to be moved between now and the start of next season are Elder, Ehrhoff, and perhaps Myers?....I'll put money on more than 3 decent D changing teams this off season

 

[Mothra]

to me the point of view over the player is irrelevant anymore. his job on the team and the level of his cap hit are based on him being the primary offensive situation defenseman on the team.

he's been replaced in that role by Carlson and I don't see that changing. trade him. I think using Carlson instead is a mistake but if that is the direction of the team, then the die is cast on Green.

I'll ask again....why?

I know, you think 52 is better...but how much better is the PP with 52 on it? Will they be a 30% unit? of course not.....so how is it a mistake? If a younger player, signed for several more seasons for less money, has stepped into that role and the unit itself is still first rate...how is this is mistake? I can only assume you think the PP unit would be much more effective with 52....can you quantify that? They are currently 24% on the PP....how much better would they be (and thats really the question) with 52?

So if you feel they wouldnt be that much better, statistically, how is it a mistake? To me you have filled a specialist type role with a younger, cheaper player that you can reasonably assume should still get better

Maybe you think they would be hitting 30% with 52....I really dont know how you still view this as a mistake....to me it should be one of the few things people could point to and say "that was a really good move". It absolutely has worked..the PP is amazing....Carlson looks to be running with it and is playing his best overall hockey IMO. Are you certain longstanding internet arguments havent clouded you on this one?

 

[Mothra]

btw....love those fancy stats. makes green look good. so.....are the get green out of town fast guys all not fenwick and corsi fans?

im not even sure why teams have scouting departments anymore...all you need are the numbers, they tell the whole story

 

[Pigskin]

stats are like bikinis ... they give you a pretty good idea, but they don't show you everything

 

[txpd]

why? simple.
a. 52 has put up league leading offensive number in several seasons. his proven upside is greater than 74.

b. 74 is the teams primary shutdown pair puck mover. he plays a primary role on the pk. splitting the special teams duty between 52 and 74 is safer on several levels.

c. trade green and see Carlson get hurt at a critical time and the team is severely damaged.

hows that?

 

[malyk]

im not even sure why teams have scouting departments anymore...all you need are the numbers, they tell the whole story

So, I posted those numbers because they are interesting, not because I think it tells the whole story. There's an example right in there showing Chimera/Ward have less than 50% corsi and fenwick numbers but high goals for numbers. If you were just looking at corsi and not watching the games you'd miss that those two out work the other team in the offensive zone many shifts a game and score more as a result.

When Mike Green is on the ice at 5 on 5 the team generates a lot more shot attempts than they do when he isn't on the ice...a lot more than Carlson does. However, the team generates more 5 on 5 goals when Carlson is on the ice than they do when Green is on the ice. What does that tell you? Who knows...you need more data to find out. Maybe Green carelessly throws pucks at the net, or gets more shots blocked. Maybe Carlson picks his spots better. You have to watch the game to figure those things out.

Also, these stats are generally offensively biased stats. I didn't post the quality of competition stats (Carlson faces harder competition at 5 on 5 and kills penalties), or blocked shot stats, or turnovers created, etc. that would probably favor Carlson.

Plus, this is even strength only. (incidentally, that's 81+% of the game time for the caps. 9+% PP and 9+% SH) So if you are trying to argue about Green vs Carlson on the power play...you can't with those numbers.

So don't take those numbers as "the truth". Use them to inform your opinions of players, not dictate them.

 

[txpd]

im not even sure why teams have scouting departments anymore...all you need are the numbers, they tell the whole story

I don't pay any attention to them

 

[Mothra]

why? simple.
a. 52 has put up league leading offensive number in several seasons. his proven upside is greater than 74.

b. 74 is the teams primary shutdown pair puck mover. he plays a primary role on the pk. splitting the special teams duty between 52 and 74 is safer on several levels.

c. trade green and see Carlson get hurt at a critical time and the team is severely damaged.

hows that?

a) how does that help the team? Are you indeed saying the PP with 52 on it would be noticeably more efficient? You speak of 52's historical stats...fine, but for right now...this PP, how much better could we reasonably expect the 24% PP unit to be. The question isnt, would it be better for 52, what is better for the team and how much better does that make them

b) what? Carlson is playing that role now. Do you want to cut his time? He does well on PP/ES/SH...youre saying it would be "safer" to have 52 get some of that time? Im assuming you mean just PP time....so cut Carlson off the PP so he can get more ES shifts? Or so he is more rested in case they have to PK? Carlson averages 1:41 more ice time than 52...how are you spinning this? Its "safer" to have 52 on the ice more than Carlson? Because thats how this is playing out

c) oh....so 52, who hasnt played 50 games in a season 09-10, is the 6mil dollar insurance policy for Carlson...who im not sure has ever missed a game. Is that it? This is one of the reasons its a mistake to have Carlson on the PP?

I ask again...how clouded are you?

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

why? simple.
a. 52 has put up league leading offensive number in several seasons. his proven upside is greater than 74.

b. 74 is the teams primary shutdown pair puck mover. he plays a primary role on the pk. splitting the special teams duty between 52 and 74 is safer on several levels.

c. trade green and see Carlson get hurt at a critical time and the team is severely damaged.

hows that?

a. Green is far from the upside he's shown and is still woefully inconsistent at 28.

b. Carlson has already taken the special teams time away from Green to no detriment.

c. Carlson is the Caps' most durable player. Green has already proven a propensity to get hurt at key times.

 

[Mothra]

a. Green is far from the upside he's shown and is still woefully inconsistent at 28.

b. Carlson has already taken the special teams time away from Green to no detriment.

c. Carlson is the Caps' most durable player. Green has already proven a propensity to get hurt at key times.

im too verbose

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

btw....love those fancy stats. makes green look good. so.....are the get green out of town fast guys all not fenwick and corsi fans?

Stat guy and pro-trading-Green person here! The stats have mitigating factors like the high percentage of offensive zone starts and the easy competition he gets, but I think they say he's still a very good puck mover and a net positive at even strength.

I'd argue though that it's more than offset by his play, or lack thereof, on the PK. Having to put our misfit toys on the PK because we don't trust the second pairing is killing us, not only because those guys suck at PKing but because we end up forcing Alzner and Carlson to stay out longer than they should have to. Trading him and building a second pairing than can PK would probably make us a better team.

 

[msrulo]

lol, you can't be serious.

I like Mike Green, but I'll never bash somebody for wanting to replace him. But what in the world did you just do? Oleksy in the top-4? Erskine/Wey? Oh dear god.

Barber, Burakovsky, and Bowey all in the lineup? What is this, the Hershey Bears? That lineup is probably worse than Edmonton.

I was kind of tired when I wrote that post (late at night), it was meant for next season. You're right, these are potential lines, not definite. There is a fair enough chance that most prospects will bust in the NHL.

 

[artilector]

a. Green is far from the upside he's shown and is still woefully inconsistent at 28.

b. Carlson has already taken the special teams time away from Green to no detriment.

c. Carlson is the Caps' most durable player. Green has already proven a propensity to get hurt at key times.

d. At 6m/year, Green is the highest-paid D on the team, despite a/b/c.

So, highly flawed 6m puck-mover that is no longer needed on special teams. Hmm...

 

[Ridley Simon]

Couldn't disagree more. Hope is for people who don't quit and battle through adversity. For fans who believe and will continue to do so.

I bet a LOT of Red Sox fans lost hope circa 2004. Yankees up 3-0 in series and up by a run in the 9th. Couple that with the brutal history of Red Sox failure I bet most of them lost hope. Prematurely.

That one game (game 4), that one series turned the whole franchise around. If there was no hope then that wouldn't have been possible.

Lol.

Dude. Seriously.

You're referring to something that has happened exactly.....uh.....once. In the history of baseball. That's your basis for staying the course as a Caps fans?

Good lord. You are way too far gone.

Playing a lot of lottery tickets, are you?

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

Lol.

Dude. Seriously.

You're referring to something that has happened exactly.....uh.....once. In the history of baseball. That's your basis for staying the course as a Caps fans?

Good lord. You are way too far gone.

Playing a lot of lottery tickets, are you?

That was the ALCS. Completely irrelevant analogy for the Caps.

 

[hb12xchamps]

I wish the Caps were in on college FA defenseman Christian Folin. He can play all situations is 6' 3'' and has a decent physical game from what I have read. One person even compared him to an OEL

 

[FloridaCap]

why? simple.
a. 52 has put up league leading offensive number in several seasons. his proven upside is greater than 74.

b. 74 is the teams primary shutdown pair puck mover. he plays a primary role on the pk. splitting the special teams duty between 52 and 74 is safer on several levels.

c. trade green and see Carlson get hurt at a critical time and the team is severely damaged.

hows that?

Agree on all 3 points.


Green is simply better on the PP, and Carlson already logs an incredible amount of PK time. Why the hell is he also on PP1? Save his legs for the PK and even strength. Maybe if he wasn't playing on the PP so much, he could play even more in other situations.

The PP is the ONE situation where we do not need Carlson. Use him elsewhere.

 

[MrGone]

I wish the Caps were in on college FA defenseman Christian Folin. He can play all situations is 6' 3'' and has a decent physical game from what I have read. One person even compared him to an OEL

DO the Caps have an open contract?

 

[Mothra]

Agree on all 3 points.


Green is simply better on the PP, and Carlson already logs an incredible amount of PK time. Why the hell is he also on PP1? Save his legs for the PK and even strength. Maybe if he wasn't playing on the PP so much, he could play even more in other situations.

But is the PP better with 52? If so...how much. They are 24% unit now....I ask again, how much better than 24% can you reasonably expect the PP to be with 52? Do you think they become a 30% PP unit?

Please explain how that works out please...as it is Carlson averages 1:41 more total ice time than 52, thats it. Move him off the PP and he now gets less ice time than 52...Are you saying cut 52's even strength time and just have him as a PP specialist? How much more ice time can you expect Carlson to get if he is removed from the PP?

Or do you think 52 is just the better player and should be out more than Carlson?

The PP is the ONE situation where we do not need Carlson. Use him elsewhere.

You should be looking at this the exact opposite way....its clear the PP is one situation that they dont need 52. I can say that because the PP is doing amazingly, pretty much all year

What is drives your position here? Im really curious. I'll ask again...how much better is the Caps 24% PP unit with 52. Please dont say "he is a better PP QB" or anything like that, thats not an answer...im asking specifically how much better is the Caps PP with 52.

 

[BobRouse]

That was the ALCS. Completely irrelevant analogy for the Caps.

Not really. The point I'm illustrating is that there are certainly times when things don't look so good. Perhaps nearly impossible or at least improbable.

Some of my greatest Caps memories are those that things looked such a way yet didn't end that way. Flyers series 88. Beating the Pens in 94.

Lol.

Dude. Seriously.

You're referring to something that has happened exactly.....uh.....once. In the history of baseball. That's your basis for staying the course as a Caps fans?

Good lord. You are way too far gone.

Playing a lot of lottery tickets, are you?

Well the Flyers were down 3 games to 0 vs the Bs a few years back and fought back to force game 7. They were down 3-0 in that game and won.

Look...you probably believe you are being realistic and that I'm sticking my head in the sand. From my perspective I feel you are doing little good for yourself by being Hudson.

There maybe a situation where there is a 95% chance we won't succeed. I prefer to look at the 5% where we can and focus on that.

I just hope I'm not stuck with you and Brooklyn when the impending zombie apocalypse occurs....or worse..be stuck on LV-426 with you two

 

[ChibiPooky]

DO the Caps have an open contract?

I believe they are at 49 after signing Pheonix whoozitsface.

 

[PRicci09]

If Kuz plays center next year, we should trade Ward this offseason. Contract year and his value will never be higher.

Then move Grabo to 3C (assuming hes resigned) and Fehr 3RW