Speculation: Acq/ Rost. Bldg./ Cap Part XXX

[Mothra]

Nope. Thats why its even MORE important to have hope in such situations.

well this certainly explains your position on 52, and how you would look to extend him in the 6 mil range...you "hope" he returns to the player he was 3-4 years ago.....

I have "hope" to...I hope they finally move on from this player

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

Nope. Thats why its even MORE important to have hope in such situations.

At some point it crosses over from hope into delusion.

 

[BobRouse]

well this certainly explains your position on 52, and how you would look to extend him in the 6 mil range...you "hope" he returns to the player he was 3-4 years ago.....

I have "hope" to...I hope they finally move on from this player

I bet alot of fans were saying that about Larry Murphy too. I wonder what they were saying 10 years later when he was lifting the stanley cup and skating around showing it to those very same fans who "whooped" him mercilessly while being in a Red Wings jersey.

When Green leaves you will just find another goat. Maybe it will be Backstrom. Then when he's gone you'll shift to someone else..perhaps Alzner. It will never end.

 

[g00n]

Nope. Thats why its even MORE important to have hope in such situations.

Really? Please explain if you're being serious.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

I bet alot of fans were saying that about Larry Murphy too. I wonder what they were saying 10 years later when he was lifting the stanley cup and skating around showing it to those very same fans who "whooped" him mercilessly while being in a Red Wings jersey.

When Green leaves you will just find another goat. Maybe it will be Backstrom. Then when he's gone you'll shift to someone else..perhaps Alzner. It will never end.

You remember my post from several days ago? About how it took Murphy over 900 games to emerge as a dominant player, and about much more durable he was than Green? They're not comparable.

And there were no salary cap considerations with Murphy.

 

[Mothra]

I bet alot of fans were saying that about Larry Murphy too. I wonder what they were saying 10 years later when he was lifting the stanley cup and skating around showing it to those very same fans who "whooped" him mercilessly while being in a Red Wings jersey.

When Green leaves you will just find another goat. Maybe it will be Backstrom. Then when he's gone you'll shift to someone else..perhaps Alzner. It will never end.

I was happy for Murphy...he learned how to make very quick reads/decisions with the puck and it helped him a ton. He always struck me as a heady player..a smart player...52 strikes me the exact opposite.

why do you pretend to know me or what I will do? Not sure what you are getting at here...so 52 should stay because some people will find another goat if he is gone? Is that your point?

 

[BobRouse]

Really? Please explain if you're being serious.

If you have no control over something all you can really do is hope. Otherwise the only enjoyment you get out of watching the team is the emotional high you get off of hatred and anger. (you really do get that. There have been studies done.)

There are good addictions and bad ones.

What enjoyment do you derive from watching the Caps? If there is no hope for this year? Is the only hope you have derived from wishing they will lose and fire the GM and trade everyone?

All you will get is a new GM and a new group of players to hate on. That hate is addicitve and not in a good way.

 

[BobRouse]

You remember my post from several days ago? About how it took Murphy over 900 games to emerge as a dominant player, and about much more durable he was than Green? They're not comparable.

And there were no salary cap considerations with Murphy.

The played the same position in the same type of offensive minded style so I'd say you can compare them.

At this point in their careers Green has accomplished far far more then Murph. I believe in 87 Murphy was 3rd in votes for Norris. Green already has had 2 2nd place finishes along with 2 1st team all stars which Murphy never did.

Dmen take longer to develop and Green is still going to get better.

There were internal salary cap constrictions back then but its true the salary cap has changed things. The Caps however are in very good salary cap position so its not as big a concern as you may believe IMO.

I'm not against trading him if we can't get him back for a reasonable amount. I sense most fans think there is no reasonable amount and that Green would be addition by subtraction and I disagree with that.

I was happy for Murphy...he learned how to make very quick reads/decisions with the puck and it helped him a ton. He always struck me as a heady player..a smart player...52 strikes me the exact opposite.

why do you pretend to know me or what I will do? Not sure what you are getting at here...so 52 should stay because some people will find another goat if he is gone? Is that your point?

Oh my...Murphy was slothful and poor in his reads in the D zone. He'd be super spaced out at times and to top it off he played with little intensity and never hit anyone. He made his fair share of terrible lazy turnovers.

I know everything so therefore I know you. I know what you had for breakfast...Frosted Flakes with Banana!

52 should stay because he's a good player, we are short on top 4 D as a team and the whole league is short on top 4 D period.

If we must trade him we better have a replacement already here. Even after that we would still need another top 4 D.

Look around the league right now and tell me whats out there. The UFAs suck. There are a couple guys like a young struggling Edler (perhaps Myers too) and a vet like Ehrhoff on the trade block. But thats pretty much it.

 

[g00n]

If you have no control over something all you can really do is hope. Otherwise the only enjoyment you get out of watching the team is the emotional high you get off of hatred and anger. (you really do get that. There have been studies done.)

There are good addictions and bad ones.

What enjoyment do you derive from watching the Caps? If there is no hope for this year? Is the only hope you have derived from wishing they will lose and fire the GM and trade everyone?

All you will get is a new GM and a new group of players to hate on. That hate is addicitve and not in a good way.

Warning: book incoming!



You mention "addiction" a lot. I think you're projecting.

You do not read what other people write, and if you do you only consider that which fits your existing views. You just preach. You are incapable or unwilling to process the opinions of others as existing on any middle ground. To you, either people are as pollyannaish as you are and "positive"; or they're addicted, hateful and rooting for failure, because those extremes are the states you know best.

If you want to debate neuroscience and behavioral psychology we can do that all day in trying to describe the fan mind and the various ups and downs. In the end you also derive a bit of pleasure from squirts of chemicals in your brain when you chastise people for not thinking like you do. Or from pumping yourself up with positivity. Or from medication, I suspect.

Are you sure you're not addicted to all of THAT now?

You may see it as "good" and justifiable but you're having a negative effect on people who don't think like you. It may be better for YOUR health and your emotions for whatever reason, but your preferences and tolerances are not the same as everyone else's. You seem to think they are. I suspect you need to categorize everything this way because it fits your recovery strategy of "X is bad, Y is good and that's the battle that's going to fix me".

You appear to believe that critique can't be made without rage, or that internet text is the same as harmful emotion. These are false assumptions based on your own experiences and tendencies and nothing more.

As for me, if you'd been paying attention (which you haven't) I've been rooting for the Caps to win and make the playoffs and I've explained my reasons many times. If you only need your positive images of the Caps to be happy, why even bother watching?

TL;DR: nu uh.

 

[Marshall]

The Larry Murphy excuse a myth, and hiding behind it is shows a loser mentality.

First, what team did Larry Murphy start on? Which team did he have his first 20 goal season with?

How many teams did Larry Murphy play for? How many teams traded him?

Does Larry Murphy have any idea what a corner of a rink look like?

I appreciated what Murphy brought to the rink - you knew what you were getting. Soft, talented offenseman.

Today's Mike Green is a shadow of that. He is a turnover machine. He isn't strong defensively, he isn't physical, and he is fragile. Paying $6 mil + for that is absolutely a loser's game. Even if he recovers form on a different team, and he won't, he will have to do so at a lower rate.

It was once pointed out to me that Caps fans, for whatever reason, value their past players more than any other fanbase. This is a budding example.

Have some guts, move on, spend the money wisely.

(That's the trick, isn't it?)

 

[BobRouse]

Goon

Its really whatever floats your boat. I don't think anyone is "right" or "wrong" here. I merely was trying to explain the reasoning behind my viewpoint. If it came across as me "talking down" to others who don't view it as I do then I apologize. Not my intention. Sometimes you just get caught up in the heat of the argument and go too far.

But I do think that its a matter of perspective and everyone has their own. Mine makes me happy in a way I feel is positive. I believe I speak from a unique position since for a long time I was far more outspoken in my criticism than anyone here and now see it from the other side. Take it for what you will.

RE: Murphy

I don't recall Murphy getting "whooped" anywhere else he played. Maybe Toronto maybe not. He wasn't there for that long if I remember.

Caps fans do have a history of underappreciating this type of player. Murphy got whooped. Hatcher got whooped. Gonchar was starting to draw sighs of exasperation.

Green is a superior player to what Murphy was at this point in there careers and his accomplishments reflect that. I feel his trajectory as a complete player is upwards. Apparently most don't. Thats fine.

 

[g00n]

Goon

Its really whatever floats your boat. I don't think anyone is "right" or "wrong" here. I merely was trying to explain the reasoning behind my viewpoint. If it came across as me "talking down" to others who don't view it as I do then I apologize. Not my intention. Sometimes you just get caught up in the heat of the argument and go too far.

But I do think that its a matter of perspective and everyone has their own. Mine makes me happy in a way I feel is positive. I believe I speak from a unique position since for a long time I was far more outspoken in my criticism than anyone here and now see it from the other side. Take it for what you will.

RE: Murphy

I don't recall Murphy getting "whooped" anywhere else he played. Maybe Toronto maybe not. He wasn't there for that long if I remember.

Caps fans do have a history of underappreciating this type of player. Murphy got whooped. Hatcher got whooped. Gonchar was starting to draw sighs of exasperation.

Green is a superior player to what Murphy was at this point in there careers and his accomplishments reflect that. I feel his trajectory as a complete player is upwards. Apparently most don't. Thats fine.

Once again, extreme examples. For every one of the guys you mentioned we can cite a dozen or more players the Caps and fans OVERrated and who were either overpaid or overstayed.

As for your "whatever floats your boat", you were attacking the fanbase for having a "BAD ADDICTION" to an unhealthy lifestyle while just rooting for doom and futility. That's pretty clearly calling one side wrong and the other right, and evangelizing to boot.

It's nice that you apologize in a way by saying you're just sharing what you believe is a unique perspective, but I don't think it's all that unique unless you have a story about extreme and unusual violence toward yourself or others while in a Caps-fueled rage you'd like to share?

Otherwise, like I said, you're going by text on the internet for your diagnosis, and you're letting that diagnosis color not only your attitude toward the Caps but your entire perspective on hockey and what other fans are saying--in part based on what you think is "right" or "wrong" despite what you said above to the contrary.

I'm not trying to moderate you, just let you know what my impressions are of your approach. I am more likely to just scroll past your posts these days than read them because every time I do take the time to read one it's the same basic spinjob that shows little regard for important details in the post you were responding to. It comes off like paid cheerleading and, frankly, I have no use for advertisements of that kind in a discussion forum. Sorry.

(I know, long post on my part but I can't shorten this complex issue to a soundbite without coming off as brusque)

 

[BobRouse]

Hey now! How come you're allowed to type long posts but I'm not????

My opinion is that it derives from an addiction to hatred and anger. My opinion is that this kind of addiction is bad. If that came across as attacking then I apologize. I truly am sharing my observations based on my viewpoints and experiences. Its really nothing more than that. If I'm being preachy about it then just chalk me up as a loon!

Not sure how long you been around these parts but trust me I was very very outspoken and angry. Started on the OBs and then here. I find it hard to imagine there was anyone more critical of the org especially McPhee! I net-raged on more than 100 occassions

 

[IafrateOvie34]

I feel about Mike Green similar to what Keenan thought about Curtis Joseph. Trade the guy while there is a chance.

 

[g00n]

Hey now! How come you're allowed to type long posts but I'm not????

My opinion is that it derives from an addiction to hatred and anger. My opinion is that this kind of addiction is bad. If that came across as attacking then I apologize. I truly am sharing my observations based on my viewpoints and experiences. Its really nothing more than that. If I'm being preachy about it then just chalk me up as a loon!

Not sure how long you been around these parts but trust me I was very very outspoken and angry. Started on the OBs and then here. I find it hard to imagine there was anyone more critical of the org especially McPhee! I net-raged on more than 100 occassions

If it's an addiction to hatred and anger then how do you explain the shifts to ecstacy and euphoria when the team is playing well or scores a goal? How do you explain all the effort to analyze and suggest corrections?

The team can be down 1-0 in the first period of a game in November and people are convinced a total rebuild is necessary. One nice goal later and the tone is completely different and we're planning a Cup parade route. We even joke about how fickle fans are because of this!


If it were addiction to anger and hatred then we would all be 100% negative and vitriolic all the time, no matter what, and nobody would have any good ideas for improvement.

It's not addiction to anger, it's normal emotional up and down fan behavior. Why do you think sports are popular in the first place???? It's because of the relative highs and lows people get from watching!!

If you have to go to one extreme to prevent yourself from sliding all the way to the other extreme, that's fine. But understand that everyone else is not sick in the head or addicted. That's your personal perception.

 

[txpd]

to me the point of view over the player is irrelevant anymore. his job on the team and the level of his cap hit are based on him being the primary offensive situation defenseman on the team.

he's been replaced in that role by Carlson and I don't see that changing. trade him. I think using Carlson instead is a mistake but if that is the direction of the team, then the die is cast on Green.

 

[Liberati0n*]

The Larry Murphy excuse a myth, and hiding behind it is shows a loser mentality.

First, what team did Larry Murphy start on? Which team did he have his first 20 goal season with?

How many teams did Larry Murphy play for? How many teams traded him?

Does Larry Murphy have any idea what a corner of a rink look like?

I appreciated what Murphy brought to the rink - you knew what you were getting. Soft, talented offenseman.

Today's Mike Green is a shadow of that. He is a turnover machine. He isn't strong defensively, he isn't physical, and he is fragile. Paying $6 mil + for that is absolutely a loser's game. Even if he recovers form on a different team, and he won't, he will have to do so at a lower rate.

It was once pointed out to me that Caps fans, for whatever reason, value their past players more than any other fanbase. This is a budding example.

Have some guts, move on, spend the money wisely.

(That's the trick, isn't it?)

It doesn't even matter anyway. Larry Murphy's career following one trajectory has no bearing on the potential trajectory of Mike Green's. Especially if the argument is simply that Murphy went on to win the Cup; then it's just brutally Pejorative Slured. The ****ing historical anecdotes are so annoying and stupid. They don't mean anything. If you want to generalize something from a lot more examples and consistent with other actual facts, that's fine and good, but that's not what simplistically equating Green and Murphy is at all.

 

[txpd]

If it's an addiction to hatred and anger then how do you explain the shifts to ecstacy and euphoria when the team is playing well or scores a goal? How do you explain all the effort to analyze and suggest corrections?

The team can be down 1-0 in the first period of a game in November and people are convinced a total rebuild is necessary. One nice goal later and the tone is completely different and we're planning a Cup parade route. We even joke about how fickle fans are because of this!


If it were addiction to anger and hatred then we would all be 100% negative and vitriolic all the time, no matter what, and nobody would have any good ideas for improvement.

It's not addiction to anger, it's normal emotional up and down fan behavior. Why do you think sports are popular in the first place???? It's because of the relative highs and lows people get from watching!!

If you have to go to one extreme to prevent yourself from sliding all the way to the other extreme, that's fine. But understand that everyone else is not sick in the head or addicted. That's your personal perception.

when was the last time there was ecstacy?
there are several posters here that only post negatives. if they post a positive it is the exception that proves the rule and is often a backhanded positive.

the quiet days on these boards is after they win. the busy days are after they lose. there is no much joyfulness after wins. not much cheering per say. nothing that can come close to rivaling the whining and moaning after they lose. hell...earlier this year it was like they lost after every non regulation win. not much cheering at all

 

[BobRouse]

Well Goon thats my take. You'll just have to live with it and deep down inside you know I'm right. I pretty much always am anyhow

RE: Green

We have to look at next year as well as the future. If our plan is to contend next year we have to address the D.

If we plan on addressing the D we need another top 4 dman from outside the Org to come in.

If we plan on moving Green out then we need a total of 2 top 4 dmen from outside the Org.

Chances of getting 2 guys are pretty slim in one offseason especially with the cruddy UFAs available and the high demand that goes with the increased cap room for all teams.

IF we want next year to be a mini rebuild year then its cool to trade Green and maybe bring in 1 guy.

So basically IMO if we trade Green this offseason we will be in a rebuilding year unless some utterly shocking roster changes are made.

 

[txpd]

not really. if they move orlov to 2LD and #2 puck mover and he can handle that, then moving green opens up a 2RD spot for a defense first. that means only 1 is needed. not 2

 

[BobRouse]

not really. if they move orlov to 2LD and #2 puck mover and he can handle that, then moving green opens up a 2RD spot for a defense first. that means only 1 is needed. not 2

Orlov is not ready for that. Even then our 3rd pairing has been a brutal problem all year.

Removing Orlov and inserting Carrick/Wey/Erskine would make it worse.

If we are planning to contend next year then our top 4 has to get more experienced not less. Carlzner is young enough as is.

 

[g00n]

Well Goon thats my take. You'll just have to live with it and deep down inside you know I'm right. I pretty much always am anyhow

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

not really. if they move orlov to 2LD and #2 puck mover and he can handle that, then moving green opens up a 2RD spot for a defense first. that means only 1 is needed. not 2

Piggybacking off what's being said on the Kings GDT, Derek Morris could be a perfect fit with Orlov.

If we have a coach who is ok with Orlov at RD, then Ehrhoff makes a lot of sense (although I don't know anything about recapture and retirement penalties).

 

[malyk]

I was just looking at some team stats on extraskater.com and nhl.com and, well, it's ugly!

Goals For %: 47.5%, 21st in the league
Corsi For %: 48.7%, 23rd in the league
Fenwick For %: 48.3%, 23rd in the league
Shooting %: 7.4%, 19th in the league
Save %: 92.5%, 19th in the league
PDO: 99.9, 16th in the league
Goals For/60: 2.09, 23rd in the league
Goals Against/60: 2.32, 18th in the league
Goal Diff/60: -0.22, 21st in the league
Corsi Diff/60: -3, 23rd in the league
Fenwick Diff/60: -2.7, 23rd in the league
Shot Diff/60: -2.7, 25th in the league

17th in wins
16th in points
24th in ROW (tied with Ott and ahead of Cal, Edm, NYI, FLA, BUF)
18th in points percentage
2nd on the power play
19th on the penalty kill
23rd in faceoffs

Yuck.

 

[malyk]

I also spent some time looking at individual stats at 5 on 5 since that's where most of the game is played. It's not pretty.

The only players that are generating more goals for 5v5 on the team: Grabovski(55.4%), Wilson(55.2%), and Ward(51.9%). Chimera is at 50%.

The only players that have a higher overall corsi for at 5v5: Orlov(52.8%), Green(52.2%), Grabovski(51.8%), and Ovechkin(50.2%). Fehr is at 50%.

If you look at Fenwick 5v5 it's: Green(51.6%) and Orlov(51.2%). Grabovski is at 50%.

Looking at the numbers relative to the team:

5v5 Goals For Rel %:

Grabovski:|12.1%
Wilson:|10%
Ward:|8.1%
Chimera:|5.6%
Erskine:|2.6% (!!!)
Fehr:|1.9%
Brouwer:|1.4%
Carlson:|1.2%
Green:|0.2%
Alzner:|-1.7%
Laich:|-3.5%
Johansson:|-4.4%
Orlov:|-6.6%
Beagle:|-7.7%
Backstrom:|-9.2%
Ovechkin:|-14.3%

5v5 Corsi For Rel %

Orlov:|7.5%
Green:|5.2%
Grabovski:|3.4%
Ovechkin:|2.6%
Fehr:|2.1%
Backstrom:|1.8%
Johansson:|0.9%
Brouwer:|0%
Ward:|-1%
Alzner:|-1.4%
Chimera:|-1.6%
Carlson:|-1.6%
Wilson:|-2.2%
Laich:|-2.6%
Beagle:|-3.8%
Erskine:|-4.8%

5v5 Fenwick For Rel %

Orlov:|5.4%
Green:|5.3%
Grabovski:|2.1%
Ovechkin:|1.9%
Backstrom:|1.2%
Fehr:|1.1%
Johansson:|1.1%
Alzner:|0.3%
Brouwer:|0.2%
Ward:|-0.6%
Carlson:|-0.8%
Chimera:|-0.9%
Beagle:|-1.1%
Wilson:|-1.6%
Laich:|-4%
Erskine:|-4.7%

Finally, Goals/60, Assists/60, Points/60 (sorted by points)

Grabovski:|0.69|1.37|2.06
Chimera:|0.78|1.23|2.01
Ward:|0.87|1.07|1.94
Fehr:|0.87|1.01|1.88
Ovechkin:|1.32|0.46|1.78
Backstrom:|0.44|1|1.44
Johansson:|0.12|1.05|1.17
Green:|0.29|0.72|1.01
Wilson:|0.22|0.78|1
Brouwer:|0.5|0.44|0.94
Laich:|0.55|0.28|0.83
Beagle:|0.23|0.58|0.82
Orlov:|0.23|0.38|0.61
Alzner:|0.1|0.49|0.59
Carlson:|0.19|0.29|0.48
Erskine:|0.11|0.22|0.33

Quick Hits:

- The Chimera/Ward pairing doesn't generate a lot of Corsi events, but the eye test says they have a ton of offensive possession and their scoring rates seem to be indicative of that.

- The team really misses Grabovski. He's the leading forward in all of the fancy stats.

- Wilson also doesn't have very good Corsi/Fenwick numbers, but his scoring rate is pretty good. Might be a small sample size with only 8 minutes a night, but those numbers sure look good for the future.

- Fehr destroys brouwer at evens.

- Green and Orlov can really drive the play up the ice, although the relative goals for number for Orlov is brutal. Not sure what the cause of that is. Either he's terrible defensively or the team just isn't converting any goals when he's pushing the puck up the ice. Does he play with the top line the most? That could explain it

-The first line is awful at even strength when it comes to scoring. They are ok in generating Corsi/Fenwick events, but the get destroyed in the relative goals for stat. MJ -4.4, NB -9.2, AO -14.3! Oates has to figure out how to get that line going.