Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXIV (Arbitration Season)

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third man in

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Jul 27, 2007
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Yeah lets trade Backstrom for a #1D then trade Carlson for a #1C. :sarcasm: To win a cup you need guys on entry level or bridge contracts outperforming their pay. We didn't get that, especially from the young forwards and we still played Pitt close.
 

twabby

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If you keep losing each and every year with that core, why do you hold into it so tight? Just food for thought.

You critically analyze why your team lost. If you determine your core players haven't performed well enough AND you can replace them with players who are more likely to produce a Cup, then you do it. You don't just blow up the core because they haven't won anything yet with no better solution in place. It's lunacy.
 

Alexander the Gr8

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May 2, 2013
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If you keep losing each and every year with that core, why do you hold into it so tight? Just food for thought.

Because trading one of the four players I mentioned would put us even further from the Cup, unless we somehow got an upgrade in the trade.

Ovechkin and Holtby can't be upgraded. Backstrom and Kuznetsov are #1Cs, and no team in this league trades their #1C, so why should we? Carlson is a #1D, again, those don't get traded very often, unless your GM is Marc Bergevin or David Poile. I'd be willing to trade Carlson more than the top 4 core players, but he's pretty good and he gets the job done. Carlson isn't the problem, it's up to Schmidt and Orlov to take the next step. In the middle of the regular season they were excellent, but they fell apart right before the playoffs.

We have a good core, we just need to get everyone to produce at the same time and we'll be fine. We could use another minor upgrade in the bottom 6, but there is no need for a major trade.
 

BrooklynCapsFan

No more choking!
Oct 23, 2002
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If you keep losing each and every year with that core, why do you hold into it so tight? Just food for thought.

As the fire George originator you should know better. This core has not failed repeatedly. They've been sent out alone to die every year.

How can you say the core can't win when they've had failures with Shaone Morrissonnnn as a shutdown dman, Hunter as a coach or Fleischmann and Morrison as 2Cs?

Even these past two years where they had decent lineups overall (and garbage coaching), Ovi has scored 21 points in 26 games and Backstrom has contributed 19 and incredible defensive play.
 

Ridley Simon

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You critically analyze why your team lost. If you determine your core players haven't performed well enough AND you can replace them with players who are more likely to produce a Cup, then you do it. You don't just blow up the core because they haven't won anything yet with no better solution in place. It's lunacy.

Lol. Lunacy? That's not an extreme, is it?

I think the scenarios I proposed would be under your theorem above. See post #100 in this thread.
 

Ridley Simon

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As the fire George originator you should know better. This core has not failed repeatedly. They've been sent out alone to die every year.

How can you say the core can't win when they've had failures with Shaone Morrissonnnn as a shutdown dman, Hunter as a coach or Fleischmann and Morrison as 2Cs?

Even these past two years where they had decent lineups overall (and garbage coaching), Ovi has scored 21 points in 26 games and Backstrom has contributed 19 and incredible defensive play.

Oh I know. I'm not seriously advocating trading 19. I love 19 (my first modern Caps jersey was a white 19).

I just stuck this idea out there (see post 100) as a discussion point, and to see what "we need to make a splash now!!!!" posters would say. I've gotten the response I expected.

As I've written --all over-- the few running threads we have on this board, I believe in where we are, and what we are doing. GMBM is doing just fine, and the team is entering the season as a Vegas odds favourite to win the Cup. (Pens, Caps, Hawks are top 3, in no certain order).

I'm happy.

In George's own words "stay the course":nod:
 

trick9

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Jun 2, 2013
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Because trading one of the four players I mentioned would put us even further from the Cup, unless we somehow got an upgrade in the trade.

Ovechkin and Holtby can't be upgraded. Backstrom and Kuznetsov are #1Cs, and no team in this league trades their #1C, so why should we? Carlson is a #1D, again, those don't get traded very often, unless your GM is Marc Bergevin or David Poile. I'd be willing to trade Carlson more than the top 4 core players, but he's pretty good and he gets the job done. Carlson isn't the problem, it's up to Schmidt and Orlov to take the next step. In the middle of the regular season they were excellent, but they fell apart right before the playoffs.

We have a good core, we just need to get everyone to produce at the same time and we'll be fine. We could use another minor upgrade in the bottom 6, but there is no need for a major trade.

I would trade either Backstrom or Kuznetsov before even considering trading Carlson. #1 D's (the top-15 guys) are even harder to acquire than 1C, and Caps already have 2 of those. Downgrading the defense isn't an answer either. I would much rather trade one of the top forwards for similar top D, rather than the other way around.
 

txpd

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Jan 25, 2003
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Probably don't. Say Caps flame out again next spring....and if you are looking for a hockey trade??

Say Boston wants to change up their make up, and Krejci or Bergeron are available.

Or Anaheim needs to trade Getzlaf

Or San Jose needs to deal Pavelski or Couture.

Point being, hockey trades happen, teams shake up cores, and great players get dealt. As I said before, I love Nick, but if they flame out again, and the right dance partner shows up....???

I don't know that those players are better, but they are different. Maybe that's needed.

I dont think most of those players are as good as Backstrom. Some not even close.
 

g00n

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Nov 22, 2007
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Not really sure that's true (Daryl Sutter and Gregg Popovich are two examples off the top of my head who rely more on tangibles when explaining success), and there are very specific examples of moves made to improve the "culture" backfiring big time:

Tyler Seguin was traded from Boston because he didn't fit their culture. Now Boston is a trainwreck and Seguin is one of the top players in the NHL with Dallas.

Phil Kessel was branded a loser by Toronto who couldn't do what it took to win. Now all of a sudden he's a winner.

Mike Richards and Jeff Carter were traded from Philadelphia in part because their off-ice transgressions didn't fit in with the culture the Flyers were trying to build. Both ended up in LA and won two Cups. Then Richards came to Washington, branded as a guy who knew how to win. A real character guy to help with the winning culture. He was ineffective and the Capitals still lost in the playoffs.

Dave Bolland, hero of the 2012-13 Blackhawks, went to Florida in part due to bring a winning culture. He failed in that role and is no longer really part of the team.

Same with Dustin Byguglien and Andrew Ladd who went to Atlanta/Winnipeg and have won exactly 0 playoff games.

Sidney Crosby went from winner to coach killer loser back to winner. Does this explanation really hold water for why the Penguins were playoff disappointments from 2010-2015? Or is it more likely that Crosby has always been a great player but that his team was great in 2009 and 2016? Seems to me his being branded as a "loser" is because they lost. Not the other way around.

Weber was brought to Montreal as a "culture change", and I am willing to bet Nashville will be the overwhelming winners of the Subban/Weber trade (already the media is slamming Bergevin for this trade and for good reason).

I have no doubt that some coaches believe certain players are "winners" and that they are the reason the team won. But it takes a lot of guesswork and unverifiable information to claim "winning culture" leads to playoff success when a much simpler explanation works: talent, tactics, and luck. It's fine to speak of culture if you aren't in a position of power, but if culture is the only reason a move is made then you are not very good at your job.

You said "A winning culture doesn't win you Cups. Winning Cups produces a winning culture." What you typed in defense above does not prove your statement at all, for several reasons I don't feel like laboring through, not the least of which is that bringing in one player is not proof that a change in culture has taken place.

If you want to just isolate your perspective to the Subban/Weber trade, that's a different story. But I'm not responding to that. I'm responding to your generalization about winning cultures happening before or after championships. Any sports psychologist, coach, or athlete who has the least bit of high level experience will tell you otherwise (and that doesn't mean they never rely on stats, just that they understand psychology and managing the culture beyond stats). Whether or not moving one player changes that dynamic completely is another story.
 

BiPolar Caps

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What the hell is going on here?

Back to business, even as a shadow if himself after the Bork hit Backstrom had a hell of a postseason. He put up 4 points in 6 against Pitt while completely shutting down 87. Are people warching these games?

He's lost a lot of speed but he's a Selke level, big C on a fair deal. How do you upgrade that?

Quote all the stats that you want about #19's performance in the playoffs, but this is all I remember.
 

twabby

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Mar 9, 2010
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You said "A winning culture doesn't win you Cups. Winning Cups produces a winning culture." What you typed in defense above does not prove your statement at all, for several reasons I don't feel like laboring through, not the least of which is that bringing in one player is not proof that a change in culture has taken place.

If you want to just isolate your perspective to the Subban/Weber trade, that's a different story. But I'm not responding to that. I'm responding to your generalization about winning cultures happening before or after championships. Any sports psychologist, coach, or athlete who has the least bit of high level experience will tell you otherwise (and that doesn't mean they never rely on stats, just that they understand psychology and managing the culture beyond stats). Whether or not moving one player changes that dynamic completely is another story.

I brought up the topic in response to some people here wanting to ship out Backstrom or Ovechkin if they fail again this season due to them being "damaged goods" or similar. They're only damaged goods because they haven't won a Stanley Cup, not because there is something inherently about them that makes them losers. Shipping them out for "proven winners" would be a catastrophic mistake unless these "winners" are actually better players. Did the Penguins really win the Cup this season because of a winning culture? Or was it because of good players, coaching, and puck luck? I'd heavily lean toward the latter.

The media (and coaches, players, etc.) only speak of a team or player having a "winning culture" after the team or player has won a Stanley Cup or other championship. Think of the Red Wings in the early 1990s, and the 2010s Blackhawks and Kings. Before they went on to win their Stanley Cups, these teams were thought of as perennial losers and no one spoke of them being winning organizations. Yzerman in particular was branded a loser, until he won, then he was a winner. Funny how that works. And did these teams undergo some sort of big culture change? Maybe slightly? But it's far more likely that better talent, better tactics, and some good fortune turned these teams into "winners" rather than a culture change.

Did anyone speak of the "Patriot Way" before they won their first Super Bowl? Isn't it much more likely that Bill Belechick's tactics (especially defensively) and Tom Brady's talent were the reason they won all of those Super Bowls, and the whole Patriot Way thing happened after they won?

"Culture" is just a buzzword IMO. It doesn't have any real value and is mainly used to explain away things that hockey executives have no clue about. I'm sure some coaches, athletes, etc. say it's important, but that doesn't make them right.
 

twabby

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Mar 9, 2010
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Quote all the stats that you want about #19's performance in the playoffs, but this is all I remember.


If Holtby gets his pad down then no one ever remembers this play.

As a slight aside, this is a perfect reason why the eye test alone fails. Selection bias makes people focus on the "big plays" and clouds decision-making. Rather than observing all of the small net-positives that a player makes, people tend to focus on memorable events because it's just impossible to remember everything that goes on. In this case, one mistake from Backstrom is leading to an inaccurate judgment of the quality of his play this postseason.
 

Langway

In den Wolken
Jul 7, 2006
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He's on the Caps instagram today too for 90 days until the opener. They wouldn't do that if things were rocky.

Barf.
I expect him back but I wouldn't read much into that. It's been clear IMO that they don't want to pay him market rate but they'll tolerate an arbitration award and him potentially walking in a year. Which is to say they don't really care to treat him like an asset other than what he may produce next season and that's it. Given his playoff track record, it's a questionable decision and yet another short-sighted one.

If they were to set to hold the line on not paying him arbitration rate he should have been moved at the draft because that's always been where this was headed. If you don't like some of the comparable arbitration numbers how can you possibly like a realistic multi-year number that eats up UFA seasons? He clearly doesn't fit into how they value him. And yet they're conflicted enough to accept something near, at or above market value for one season.

While they could still trade him their manoeuvrability now is greatly restricted. MacLellan's tough talk never had much of anything behind it. They could walk away from an award but how wise is that? It's possible Hudler is still UFA in a week but it says a lot if no one is really interested in what his camp perceives as market value.
 

hockeykicker

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also according to them, chimera was the worst defensive forward in nhl




so brooks orpik was the caps best defender last year
 
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twabby

Registered User
Mar 9, 2010
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Not that I have any idea what his ranking algorithm is, but here are a few other Tweets from him:





I'm not really drawing any conclusions based on a proprietary ranking system that has Karl Alzner as one of the worst defensemen in the NHL either.
 

hockeykicker

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Dec 3, 2014
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Not that I have any idea what his ranking algorithm is, but here are a few other Tweets from him:





Yea neither do I, but you could argue that he was horrible until 2015 based on that chart too. Either way it's interesting
 
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