Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXVI (Win Harder, Boys)

[twabby]

All I care about is what players are best at helping the Capitals score more goals than the opposition. I have no interest in seeing the Capitals do anything other than win games and win the Stanley Cup.

Tom Wilson is an aggressive forechecker who causes opposing defensemen to make poor, panicked decisions with the puck, and occasionally he injures players on good clean hits (Visnovsky). Also despite the refs hating him, he still draws penalties at a higher rate than he takes them and that puts a very talented team on the power play. These things cause the Capitals to score more goals than their opponents.

I will concede, Brooks Orpik hits a lot and he hits hard. But opposing forwards don't care about this, they care that they can take advantage of Orpik because he is slow and unskilled. This is why I say they aren't scared of him. His negatives far outweigh his positives and that's why the opposing team more than likely salivates at seeing him on the ice.

What? Just because you don't see it clearly doesn't make it false. Fear/Respect goes a long way. They may not cower in fear over Orpik but they respect when hes around and don't go running around.

How does this contribute to the Capitals winning games?

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

I think the "all in at all costs" mentatlity really depends on how much confidence the team has in its scouting. The jury is still out on GMBM's drafting and ability to keep up with maintenance, a la Chicago. I'm really curious to see how Samson plays out ultimately.

Screw Chicago. Their ongoing ability to compete is built on Keith and Hossa's cap circumventing deals. I hope Kane and Toews bury them for years to come.

 

[hb12xchamps]

All I care about is what players are best at helping the Capitals score more goals than the opposition.

Adding Orpik to the mix helps us in this regard. Scoring more goals doesn't always guarantee a win (see McPhee built Caps teams).

I will concede, Brooks Orpik hits a lot and he hits hard. But opposing forwards don't care about this, they care that they can take advantage of Orpik because he is slow and unskilled. This is why I say they aren't scared of him. His negatives far outweigh his positives and that's why the opposing team more than likely salivates at seeing him on the ice.

I'm sure an opposing forward knows when Orpik is on the ice. I would care about getting hit hard. Hard hits help wear down the opposition. Yes Orpik wasn't great at the beginning of the year but how much of that was attributed to coming off of now training camp, a wrist injury, and playing through whatever mystery injury he has now? A healthy Brooks Orpik is a key component to having playoff success.

 

[tycoonheart]

Orpik was terribad to start the season, got hurt, had a setback in his recovery, and still isn't skating with the team. Anyone who's penciling him to their shutdown pairing at this point is being overly optimistic.

We've got plenty of games left to get him in shape.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I will concede, Brooks Orpik hits a lot and he hits hard. But opposing forwards don't care about this, they care that they can take advantage of Orpik because he is slow and unskilled. This is why I say they aren't scared of him. His negatives far outweigh his positives and that's why the opposing team more than likely salivates at seeing him on the ice.

How does this contribute to the Capitals winning games?

Serious question, have you ever played hockey? I was always aware of the guys on the other team that could lay the smackdown. I was always aware of the guys who would beat the **** out of me when I screened the goalie and just as aware of the guys who wouldn't lay a finger on me. Just as Wilson causes defensemen to make quick decisions, you don't think a forward makes a quicker decision with the puck in the corner if Orpik is out there than if Schmidt is out there? You don't think a forward feels more comfortable and confident driving to the net and parking it in front of Holtby if Orpik isn't covering him? Really? It's the same concept as a safety in football that will hurt you if you go over the middle. He's not overly fast, but he's also not the pylon you're making him out to be. Did you watch the Caps play in the playoffs last year?

 

[Blades of Steel]

All I care about is what players are best at helping the Capitals score more goals than the opposition. I have no interest in seeing the Capitals do anything other than win games and win the Stanley Cup.

Tom Wilson is an aggressive forechecker who causes opposing defensemen to make poor, panicked decisions with the puck, and occasionally he injures players on good clean hits (Visnovsky). Also despite the refs hating him, he still draws penalties at a higher rate than he takes them and that puts a very talented team on the power play. These things cause the Capitals to score more goals than their opponents.

I will concede, Brooks Orpik hits a lot and he hits hard. But opposing forwards don't care about this, they care that they can take advantage of Orpik because he is slow and unskilled. This is why I say they aren't scared of him. His negatives far outweigh his positives and that's why the opposing team more than likely salivates at seeing him on the ice.



How does this contribute to the Capitals winning games?

Where should I start?

Hitting takes players off their game, it also causes injury. Over a 7 game series this matters.

When a player respects another on the opposite team they are less likely to take extra wacks at the goalie, run the goalie, or run around taking cheap shots risking injury to our team. They will keep their heads on a swivel in self defense, quite possibly making a poor play because of it.

Orpik is also admired by the locker room, this has been known for a while that he has been a leader. He was one of the first players Kuznetsov bonded with when he came to the team.

Orpik has a ring, he is a playoff vet with a lot of experience. Don't take that for granted.

 

[twabby]

Adding Orpik to the mix helps us in this regard. Scoring more goals doesn't always guarantee a win (see McPhee built Caps teams).

How can you outscore the opponent when the puck is buried in your zone?

People here are way overstating the effect of hitting in hockey. The elite forwards of the league aren't scared to get hit because they are too smart and too skilled to open themselves up to a big hit. That's ultimately why Mike Green failed because he just didn't have the level of perception that other great talents have to avoid these hits, and as a result he was constantly getting pasted.

Also how can you expect Brooks Orpik to be any better than what he was last year, which was not very good? He's another year older, coming off two big injuries (assuming he does come back from his current mystery ailment), and presumably will be out of shape and out of practice. He's going to be worse.

The guy most people here are arguing he should replace, Taylor Chorney, has been a solid presence and while he doesn't throw the hits that Orpik does he also doesn't take dumb penalties or get buried in his own zone repeatedly.

Chorney is the safer play at this point. He plays a low risk style, similar to Orpik, but he also plays smarter and is more decisive with the puck. Why mess with something that is working? (Orpik was NOT working earlier this season)

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Orpik was terribad to start the season, got hurt, had a setback in his recovery, and still isn't skating with the team. Anyone who's penciling him to their shutdown pairing at this point is being overly optimistic.

Anyone thinking Trotz isn't going to be playing him big minutes/big situations come postseason (assuming healthy) is probably fooling themselves. Has nothing to do with optimism unless you're suggesting he's not going to be healthy enough to play in the postseason. He WILL fill that role under Trotz when he returns IMO.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Chorney over Orpik? I give up.

 

[Langway]

Chorney is the safer play at this point. He plays a low risk style, similar to Orpik, but he also plays smarter and is more decisive with the puck. Why mess with something that is working? (Orpik was NOT working earlier this season)

That's just not going to happen. Orpik will play when he's ready regardless.

Best-case Chorney has established a solid level of play that perhaps allows them to dole out a spot based on merit and not absolutely have to rush anyone back. They're going to have such a wide margin in the second half that they absolutely should be comfortable experimenting with the lineup or certain tactical tweaks.

As much as they hope and have faith in Orpik, if it doesn't work they would be idiots to constantly keep him in a prominent role regardless. They have alternatives and it would be disrespectful to the rest of the team if the coaching staff stubbornly sticks to something that isn't working when it matters most. I'm hopeful they'll be reality-based and make decisions that are best for the team when the time comes.

 

[hb12xchamps]

People here are way overstating the effect of hitting in hockey. The elite forwards of the league aren't scared to get hit because they are too smart and too skilled to open themselves up to a big hit. That's ultimately why Mike Green failed because he just didn't have the level of perception that other great talents have to avoid these hits, and as a result he was constantly getting pasted.

Hitting is a big part of the game. You even stated that when you discussed Tom Wilson's positives on this team. Having the puck is important in hockey and a hit opens up the opportunity to turn the puck over. Puck possession is a big thing at the moment with a lot of teams around the league. The elite forwards of the league are scared to get hit. Nick Backstrom as a prime example. Guy takes a bad hit to the head and wasn't right for a long time after it.

Also how can you expect Brooks Orpik to be any better than what he was last year, which was not very good? He's another year older, coming off two big injuries (assuming he does come back from his current mystery ailment), and presumably will be out of shape and out of practice. He's going to be worse.

Brooks Orpik was a big reason this team took a step towards changing their identity. Trotz loves playing a "heavy" game and Orpik brings that when he's on the ice. Orpik is a top 4 dman when healthy. He will have plenty of time to practice and work out on his own to get back into game shape. I don't see Trotz or GMBM rushing him into the lineup at this point

The guy most people here are arguing he should replace, Taylor Chorney, has been a solid presence and while he doesn't throw the hits that Orpik does he also doesn't take dumb penalties or get buried in his own zone repeatedly.

Chorney is the safer play at this point. He plays a low risk style, similar to Orpik, but he also plays smarter and is more decisive with the puck. Why mess with something that is working? (Orpik was NOT working earlier this season)

Orpik was not working because of no training camp, wrist surgery, and his mystery ailment. Saying you are going to keep Taylor Chorney in the lineup over him is crazy at this point. A lot of guys have stepped up in the absence of Orpik and Carlson. Does that mean every one of those players are better than Orpik at this time or does it have something to do with the system Trotz and co are using? 10/10 times I'm taking Brooks Orpik over Taylor Chorney. His playoff experience alone is worth it

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

That's just not going to happen. Orpik will play when he's ready regardless.

Best-case Chorney has established a solid level of play that perhaps allows them to dole out a spot based on merit and not absolutely have to rush anyone back. They're going to have such a wide margin in the second half that they absolutely should be comfortable experimenting with the lineup or certain tactical tweaks.

As much as they hope and have faith in Orpik, if it doesn't work they would be idiots to constantly keep him in a prominent role regardless. They have alternatives and it would be disrespectful to the rest of the team if the coaching staff stubbornly sticks to something that isn't working when it matters most. I'm hopeful they'll be reality-based and make decisions that are best for the team when the time comes.

Of course nobody expects them to keep trotting him out there as a top shutdown D if he's no longer capable. IMO, Trotz is going to give him a pretty long leash to prove that he can't fulfill that role. Orpik is also a guy who excels in the postseason environment. Even if he's struggling some, I expect he starts in that role come postseason where his type of game becomes more important.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

Orpik also has the respect of the refs. Something that a player like Chorney doesn't have.
Refs are more willing to give Orpik some leeway.

 

[trick9]

Hitting is a big part of the game. You even stated that when you discussed Tom Wilson's positives on this team. Having the puck is important in hockey and a hit opens up the opportunity to turn the puck over. Puck possession is a big thing at the moment with a lot of teams around the league. The elite forwards of the league are scared to get hit. Nick Backstrom as a prime example. Guy takes a bad hit to the head and wasn't right for a long time after it.

I don't think 'scared' is the right word to describe it really. Some players just have the presence and reputation that once they hit the ice, the other team knows he's there. Might want to keep your head up for a while longer, and move the puck quicker. That's the Keith Yandle -effect that happens every single time he's on the ice with Tom Wilson.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Orpik is still a better player than Chorney, come on guys.

 

[Johannes de Silentio]

If you had to speculate, when do you think Orpik, Carlson, and Beagle will return?

 

[hockeyfan88]

Saw this on Japers Rink:

Phil Kessel – 45 games: 12 and 15 for 27 points

Jason Chimera – 46 games: 13 and 14 for 27 points

ROFLMAO

 

[txpd]

I don't think 'scared' is the right word to describe it really. Some players just have the presence and reputation that once they hit the ice, the other team knows he's there. Might want to keep your head up for a while longer, and move the puck quicker. That's the Keith Yandle -effect that happens every single time he's on the ice with Tom Wilson.

Ok...lets replace afraid with respectful. Players are not respectful of Schmidt crossing the neutral zone east to west and not in the caps defensive corners and not around holtby. around orpik, they keep their head up in the neutral zone. they don't hold the puck in the corners and they don't hack at rebounds around holtby.

they defer to Oprik. If they don't, there is a battle about it.

The Caps have been missing this kind of player for years. After one playoffs we are ready to move on without that kind of player?

Then there is the, but Trotz wont keep trotting him out there if he sucks. Well, no. If he is suddenly John Erskine, no. But the idea that he is suddenly John Erskine and sucks, seems ridiculous to me as well. Why do we think he sucks now? He didn't get a training camp and was injured at some point and tried to play thru it, very likely. Has he even played a game at 100% this season? I wont jump to the conclusion that he went from everything the caps have needed on defense to suckatood in one off season.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Saw this on Japers Rink:



ROFLMAO

LMAO at all the Pens fans who were saying Kessel >> Oshie in the offseason. Looks like it's the other way around

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Ok...lets replace afraid with respectful. Players are not respectful of Schmidt crossing the neutral zone east to west and not in the caps defensive corners and not around holtby. around orpik, they keep their head up in the neutral zone. they don't hold the puck in the corners and they don't hack at rebounds around holtby.

they defer to Oprik. If they don't, there is a battle about it.

The Caps have been missing this kind of player for years. After one playoffs we are ready to move on without that kind of player?

Then there is the, but Trotz wont keep trotting him out there if he sucks. Well, no. If he is suddenly John Erskine, no. But the idea that he is suddenly John Erskine and sucks, seems ridiculous to me as well. Why do we think he sucks now? He didn't get a training camp and was injured at some point and tried to play thru it, very likely. Has he even played a game at 100% this season? I wont jump to the conclusion that he went from everything the caps have needed on defense to suckatood in one off season.

This. I guess my fellow Caps fans have forgotten how good Orpik was in his absence. A perfect example of recency bias. Those who doubt Orpik's abilities defensively, physically and as a leader for this team are welcome to watch the recap of the playoffs last year. Our top 4 is Orpik/Carlson/Alzner/Niskanen, end of the discussion. Chorney will be watching from the press box, but that's not an insult to his abilities, we have an excellent group and he happens to be #7 on the depth chart.

 

[Ridley Simon]

my question is, if it doesn't make sense to them and they don't do it, are you ok with that?

Probably. If players get moved that we could have acquired (vis a vis cost comparison and salary cap room), and we don't, it will frustrate me. I'm not going to lie and say it won't.

Will it diminish my confidence in the regime when looking at their overall performance? No,it most certainly will not.

Flip the script on you:

If they add one of these players that you don't want (Buff, Jagr etc etc), will you be upset?

 

[Carlzner]

All I care about is what players are best at helping the Capitals score more goals than the opposition. I have no interest in seeing the Capitals do anything other than win games and win the Stanley Cup.

Tom Wilson is an aggressive forechecker who causes opposing defensemen to make poor, panicked decisions with the puck, and occasionally he injures players on good clean hits (Visnovsky). Also despite the refs hating him, he still draws penalties at a higher rate than he takes them and that puts a very talented team on the power play. These things cause the Capitals to score more goals than their opponents.

I will concede, Brooks Orpik hits a lot and he hits hard. But opposing forwards don't care about this, they care that they can take advantage of Orpik because he is slow and unskilled. This is why I say they aren't scared of him. His negatives far outweigh his positives and that's why the opposing team more than likely salivates at seeing him on the ice.



How does this contribute to the Capitals winning games?

Getting hit HURTS. Especially when it's somebody like Brooks ****ing Orpik on the other end of it.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I mostly agree with all of this.

Just a question maybe of where exactly to draw the line between "all in" and "crazy". Would be nice not to go all the way into "crazy" territory

It's still maybe a 25% (or whatever) chance of winning the Cup. An impact player maybe adds another 5% (for argument's sake). Still can't guarantee anything, so have to be smart about it.

The other thing is -- IMO the biggest need increasingly seems to be sheer depth, and not the need to fill a critical/expensive. And to add decent depth at forward and defense should not be very expensive -- might not require any tremendous assets.

So if you can add depth and keep all your best chips, or -- let's say give up 2 of 1st/Bowey/Vrana/Samsonov to get "super-depth" in the form of a top-6 forward and a top-4 defenseman... which do you do?

I think I would be fine with the Caps just adding cheap depth, because that's all they really need (if the 3C situation works out). And then only add a big-impact player if you can get a decent deal dangling 1st/whatever+Laich (anyway, seems that they would have to find a dance partner for Laich to make space for a big add).

I don't think I would want a "Pronger for all of your best prospects" deal (even if that includes shipping out Laich).

Not really worried though, BMac has been good and should still have vivid memories of Caps getting fleeced on the Forsberg deal to block any temptation for insanity

I'm not upset either way. I don't want them to severely overpay....and that's a large part of the reason I have been so vocal on these boards about "Not Waiting" til near the TDL to make moves, and to do it now. TDL prices can be insane. They only go up from here til then.

We know what we need. Go get it now.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

So is there anyone resembling a true #1 D that might be available a la Pronger?

 

[twabby]

Hitting is a big part of the game. You even stated that when you discussed Tom Wilson's positives on this team. Having the puck is important in hockey and a hit opens up the opportunity to turn the puck over. Puck possession is a big thing at the moment with a lot of teams around the league. The elite forwards of the league are scared to get hit. Nick Backstrom as a prime example. Guy takes a bad hit to the head and wasn't right for a long time after it.

You are making a weird argument because on one hand, you are saying puck possession is important (I agree wholeheartedly with this), but on the other hand Orpik is the worst possession D on the team by far so you are kind of making my point for me.

The difference between Orpik and Wilson is that Wilson's hits are on the forecheck and they cause turnovers in dangerous areas of the ice, whereas Orpik's hits are almost always in his own zone and very rarely cause a turnovers. Here is a list of leading hitters amongst defensemen:

Mark Borowiecki
Radko Gudas
Roman Polak
Alexei Emelin
Nick Holden
Dustin Byfuglien
Klas Dahlbeck
Mark Stuart
Erik Gudbranson
Brayden McNabb
Michael Del Zotto

Aside from Byfuglien that is a list of really bad defensemen. It's almost as if hits are not important if you are on D!

And in Backstrom's case he was fine after he returned to the ice, I've never once noticed him playing poorly due to being "scared". Guy is a warrior.

Brooks Orpik was a big reason this team took a step towards changing their identity. Trotz loves playing a "heavy" game and Orpik brings that when he's on the ice. Orpik is a top 4 dman when healthy. He will have plenty of time to practice and work out on his own to get back into game shape. I don't see Trotz or GMBM rushing him into the lineup at this point

Trotz is the main reason this team changed their identity, not Orpik. And how are you so sure Orpik will have time to get ready? The playoffs are less than 3 months away and he hasn't even skated yet.

Orpik was not working because of no training camp, wrist surgery, and his mystery ailment. Saying you are going to keep Taylor Chorney in the lineup over him is crazy at this point. A lot of guys have stepped up in the absence of Orpik and Carlson. Does that mean every one of those players are better than Orpik at this time or does it have something to do with the system Trotz and co are using? 10/10 times I'm taking Brooks Orpik over Taylor Chorney. His playoff experience alone is worth it

I'm not advocating that Ness, Carrick, or Stanton (who was brutal last night) should take the place of Orpik, only Chorney. He has played 36 games which is enough for me to say he's earned a spot in the lineup.

I think Orpik would be an excellent backup plan, but he should be exactly that: a backup plan.