AAV for new EK contract

[Adele Dazeem]

He'll get something between 9-10MM. These 11-12MM offers are honestly ridiculous.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Under 10 is lowball.

10-11 is cheap.

Should settle between 11 and 12.

Could get up to 14 on the open market.

I seriously doubt a team would offer 14million. Teams still have to ice teams that can compete for a cup so there is a problem with contracts that big.

There is no chance that EK makes more than McDavid, I just don't see it even on the open market, unless it was from a bottom feeder, that he would never sign with.

Look, good teams, that want to compete, can't lock up that amount of money in a single player and expect to challenge for a cup. 10-12 maybe, but that's tops I'd say. If EK wants to win a cup he'll take 10-11 million a season so this team, or any team, can build a winner.

 

[dumbdick]

Well, two of the more successful teams in the league are Anaheim and Nashville which both have similar salary restrictions as the Sens and they both decided to anti up for their big stars. A budget team should absolutely not be worried about creating savings at the very top end of their roster. That savings should be around the bottom. That's so much easier than trying to build a team around a bunch of non stars than a few real stars. Like pay Nick Paul 950k instead of Burrows 2.5M so Karlsson gets his 11M instead of 9.5M. Karlsson as our #1D instead of Ceci vs Paul as our 4th LW instead Burrows. Super simple stuff. The difference in quality of the roster with just those changes is immense.

This is the most cherry picked example ever. It also doesn't make sense, since you left a tonne of extra cash undiscussed, and the Burrows/Paul decision is completely independent of the Karlsson deal.

You could have just as easily made the comparison Karlsson/Paul Vs Chabot/Paul + $9M free cash to drop into our top 4 + a huge return for Karlsson (also an invalid argument).

Overpaying Burrows has nothing to do with this discussion at all.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Okay well, I fundamentally completely disagree with you in every way on that.

A RD who's the best at his position in the world is about the most valuable commodity in the entire NHL. Not only does he carry the offense and defense while on the ice, he plays 30+ minutes in big/playoff games. 9.5 for that is an absurd discount.

That's not even considering how valuable he is off the ice in merchandising.

When you consider we have a GM who gets taken to town every time he makes a deal, you're not even going to get close to the value of a generational player back. The risk is in trading him, not keeping him.

He's not more valuable than McDavid or Crosby, I don't see a way that his agent could legitimately explain why he should make more than McDavid. 30 minutes or not he's just not on the same level as those two guys, though he's on the next level. The 10-11 million level, and that's no team discount.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Well, two of the more successful teams in the league are Anaheim and Nashville which both have similar salary restrictions as the Sens and they both decided to anti up for their big stars. A budget team should absolutely not be worried about creating savings at the very top end of their roster. That savings should be around the bottom. That's so much easier than trying to build a team around a bunch of non stars than a few real stars. Like pay Nick Paul 950k instead of Burrows 2.5M so Karlsson gets his 11M instead of 9.5M. Karlsson as our #1D instead of Ceci vs Paul as our 4th LW instead Burrows. Super simple stuff. The difference in quality of the roster with just those changes is immense.

I don't disagree with paying your star players and balancing with cheap players, but i think there's a limit for any team and imo 12-13 mil is too much for the risk/reward that contract carries, i would not sign him for that. I would consider a trade at that point and what return is available would dictate whether i just give in to the contract or trade him.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

He's not more valuable than McDavid or Crosby, I don't see a way that his agent could legitimately explain why he should make more than McDavid. 30 minutes or not he's just not on the same level as those two guys, though he's on the next level. The 10-11 million level, and that's no team discount.

Karlsson vs McDavid vs Crosby is a pretty fair comparison but one thing Karlsson has going for him is resource scarcity. There are way more top Cs in the game than there are top RDs. I'm not necessarily saying he's a better player, though he's probably gonna win those head to head matches like he did vs Crosby last year. It's just more rare to find that calibre of player on RD than C.

Also like I said before with McDavid, you need to also consider that half his new contract is RFA years, so keep in mind if he was in Karlsson's situation he'd be getting more.

 

[dumbdick]

...I'm evaluating the asset, the term risk and potential trade return and giving the dollar value where I feel that I flip between signing him and trading him. It's just about which move ultimately makes our team better.

Okay well, I fundamentally completely disagree with you in every way on that....

This place cracks me up sometimes. You don't completely disagree with me. You probably have a 20% higher valuation of this player and his value to the team relative to your assessment of his trade return.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Karlsson vs McDavid vs Crosby is a pretty fair comparison but one thing Karlsson has going for him is resource scarcity. There are way more top Cs in the game than there are top RDs. I'm not necessarily saying he's a better player, though he's probably gonna win those head to head matches like he did vs Crosby last year. It's just more rare to find that calibre of player on RD than C.

Also like I said before with McDavid, you need to also consider that half his new contract is RFA years, so keep in mind if he was in Karlsson's situation he'd be getting more.

Yeah I think we agree on how awesome EK is. If he's not interested in 10-11 million though that's pretty rough. On any team, not just us, that is a salary that lets him be the highest paid guy by far, but still allows you to build a contending core around him. Anything more and it cuts into a team's ability to compete for championships. Someone brought up Nashville and Anaheim as examples of teams with budgets, and i think they would balk at a 12-14 million single player deal.

If I'm optimistic I'm saying they settle on 10X8 and we move on.

 

[Dino Tkachuk]

Honest question...I know that it eventually will happen as the cap increases but has ANY team won the cup with even a single player having a cap hit of $8M or higher? ...Crosby and Malkin are the only ones I can think of...

Edit: so obviously Pitts is one, are there any others?

 

[saskriders]

Honest question...I know that it eventually will happen as the cap increases but has ANY team won the cup with even a single player having a cap hit of $8M or higher? ...Crosby and Malkin are the only ones I can think of...

Edit: so obviously Pitts is one, are there any others?

Chicago?

Also, considering how much the cap has changed 8 million this year would have been like 6 million what maybe 7 years ago?

 

[Dino Tkachuk]

Chicago?

Also, considering how much the cap has changed 8 million this year would have been like 6 million what maybe 7 years ago?

I think Chicago won their cups when Toews and Kane were in the $6M range and haven't won squat since they cashed in...someone correct if I'm wrong.

 

[saskriders]

I think Chicago won their cups when Toews and Kane were in the $6M range and haven't won squat since they cashed in...someone correct if I'm wrong.

I just looked it up and they were both in the 6 range with the cap at about 70m

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Yeah I think we agree on how awesome EK is. If he's not interested in 10-11 million though that's pretty rough. On any team, not just us, that is a salary that lets him be the highest paid guy by far, but still allows you to build a contending core around him. Anything more and it cuts into a team's ability to compete for championships. Someone brought up Nashville and Anaheim as examples of teams with budgets, and i think they would balk at a 12-14 million single player deal.

If I'm optimistic I'm saying they settle on 10X8 and we move on.

I brought up Anaheim and Nashville.

Perry signed March 18th 2013 at a 8.6 AAV when the cap was at 60M. That's 14% of the cap. Getzlaf at slightly less. A 13M cap hit in 2019 is about 16%. I don't think it would be that crazy if you're getting a top 5 player in the league. Getz and Perry were in the convo but not 100% consensus top 5.

 

[Ice-Tray]

I brought up Anaheim and Nashville.

Perry signed March 18th 2013 at a 8.6 AAV when the cap was at 60M. That's 14% of the cap. Getzlaf at slightly less. A 13M cap hit in 2019 is about 16%. I don't think it would be that crazy if you're getting a top 5 player in the league. Getz and Perry were in the convo but not 100% consensus top 5.

I don't think it's crazy either, but it's detrimental to any team. The cap may not be going up another 20 million either.

More to the point, if we're operating a few million below the cap and trying to match revenues with expenditures we don't really have the luxury of giving a player $13 million. I agree that the best players could command more, but they also have to balance that with winning. Some don't care, some do. If Ottawa offers in the range between 10-11, that should be good enough to sign EK long term. If not I would be ok with us cashing out on the best return we can get.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

I don't think it's crazy either, but it's detrimental to any team. The cap may not be going up another 20 million either.

More to the point, if we're operating a few million below the cap and trying to match revenues with expenditures we don't really have the luxury of giving a player $13 million. I agree that the best players could command more, but they also have to balance that with winning. Some don't care, some do. If Ottawa offers in the range between 10-11, that should be good enough to sign EK long term. If not I would be ok with us cashing out on the best return we can get.

Fair, I just see no way where a Karlsson trade will net us much compared to what he brings on the ice especially when you consider the star player trades in our past. Like we're gonna pass on that because he wants 12M instead of 11M? Seems like a ridiculous compromise to not make.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Fair, I just see no way where a Karlsson trade will net us much compared to what he brings on the ice especially when you consider the star player trades in our past. Like we're gonna pass on that because he wants 12M instead of 11M? Seems like a ridiculous compromise to not make.

Well it is more of a compromise when you wanted 10 and have to settle on 12, but I get your point. At some number, the available money becomes part of the return for a trade. 2 6 million dollar players, one 8 and one 4, plus the futures returned on an EK trade...

I'd rather he's signs for an amount that lets us stay competitive, and then we sign Duchene and stone long term as well.

 

[Sensung]

Well it is more of a compromise when you wanted 10 and have to settle on 12, but I get your point. At some number, the available money becomes part of the return for a trade. 2 6 million dollar players, one 8 and one 4, plus the futures returned on an EK trade...

I'd rather he's signs for an amount that lets us stay competitive, and then we sign Duchene and stone long term as well.

And I'd rather the owner raise the budget with the cap and have enough to pay everyone what they are worth.

Put the pressure on our owner to spend to the cap, not on our stars to take a paycut to make the team competitive.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Well it is more of a compromise when you wanted 10 and have to settle on 12, but I get your point. At some number, the available money becomes part of the return for a trade. 2 6 million dollar players, one 8 and one 4, plus the futures returned on an EK trade...

I'd rather he's signs for an amount that lets us stay competitive, and then we sign Duchene and stone long term as well.

Realistically though if we don't sign Karlsson, the odds of Duchene sticking around are pretty low. He wants to be on a playoff team and not part of a rebuild. Even if we get a good return for Karlsson (which we won't), its gonna be mostly futures.

The 2x 6M players and 8M + 4M is an interesting exercise though, we could do that. Or just any combination of 2 players who've signed recently that combine for around 12M.

Karlsson 12M vs

Ryan Johansen 8M + Brett Pesce 4.025M
Damen Severson 4.17M + David Pastrnak 6.67
Leon Draisaitl 8.5M + Calvin De Haan 3.3M
Mikko Koivu 5.5M + Nikolaj Ehlers 6M
Colton Paryko 5.5M + Kyle Turris 6M
Josh Manson 4.1M + Ryan Johansen 8M
Marchesault 5M + Pastrnak 6.67M
Mikael Backlund 5.35M + 5.3M Jake Slavin
Jack Eichel 10M + Nathan Beaulieu 2.4M
Mikael Granlund 5.75M + Mika Zibanejad 5.35M

just some combos I threw together looking at a list of guts who've signed since Jan 1st 2016. You can mix and match those and see which you'd rather have than Karlsson.

Would you rather have Karlsson at 12M or Duchene at 8M and Ceci at 4M?

 

[megalomania]

The most relevant comparable IMO is Subban. He signed his 8yX9M contract before the 2014/2015 season when the cap was 69M. That's around 13% of the cap. It's assumed the cap for next season is around 80M, 13% of which is 10.4M. Considering Karlsson is better than Subban and his new contract does not include any RFA years it's not unreasonable to say he should get more than Subban.

I'd say anything below 10M is a lowball offer, if the Sens won't go to 10M I'd be in the camp of people calling it an offer mostly meant to appease fan anger by arguing that they at least made him an offer.
I'd personally be pissed if the Sens aren't willing and ready to offer 11M or 11.25M, it would tell me the Sens want to keep him but are nor ready to pay the realistic price for their franchise superstar.
I'd even argue that 12M is still a fair enough contract for what Karlsson brings, especially considering how phenomenal he was in last years playoff run. If this team is ever gonna sniff the cup during the next eight years having him put in another performance like that is prerequisite unless we luck into drafting another superstar soon - which is hindered by not having next year's 1st round pick

 

[mysens]

Anything between 10-11 is the right number for EK, if he wants more, then good bye.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

I seriously doubt a team would offer 14million. Teams still have to ice teams that can compete for a cup so there is a problem with contracts that big.

There is no chance that EK makes more than McDavid, I just don't see it even on the open market, unless it was from a bottom feeder, that he would never sign with.

Look, good teams, that want to compete, can't lock up that amount of money in a single player and expect to challenge for a cup. 10-12 maybe, but that's tops I'd say. If EK wants to win a cup he'll take 10-11 million a season so this team, or any team, can build a winner.

Don't forget, McDavid took a discount. Edmonton offered him more than what they settled on.

 

[JD1]

And I'd rather the owner raise the budget with the cap and have enough to pay everyone what they are worth.

Put the pressure on our owner to spend to the cap, not on our stars to take a paycut to make the team competitive.

the owner put the pressure on the fans over ticket sales. how did that go? the money to pay that 12m salary has to come from somewhere

many on the boards here complain about the cost of everything at a Sens game yet want these guys to be paid what they are "worth"

This team has the lowest ticket prices in Canada. What would happen if the owner jacked prices so that the paying customers paid what NHL entertainment is worth?

 

[Ray Kinsella]

I trade him if he wants over 8 x 9.5m. he's worth 11 on a cap team but not a budget team.

He’s worth what he’s worth what he’s worth.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

the owner put the pressure on the fans over ticket sales. how did that go? the money to pay that 12m salary has to come from somewhere

many on the boards here complain about the cost of everything at a Sens game yet want these guys to be paid what they are "worth"

This team has the lowest ticket prices in Canada. What would happen if the owner jacked prices so that the paying customers paid what NHL entertainment is worth?

...the same thing that would happen when business owners can no longer take advantage of tax loopholes to give themselves freebie tickets.

 

[JD1]

Anything between 10-11 is the right number for EK, if he wants more, then good bye.

ya I am in that range. my ceiling is 10.5 I think. if the team puts an 84 M contract on the table and Erik won't sign that then I can't lay blame on the team.