Proposal: A trade around Kadri and Trouba

[Snowman]

TML fans deny their lack of top D but always seem to try to acquire 1 for parts they figure they don't need anymore. Then they try to upsell said excess parts while downgrading the player they are after. They also totally ignore the many attempts to inform them that other teams don't trade for redundant parts but to upgrade their own team.

Leaf fans, if your players are so great please keep them all & stop trying to pirate the better 1s from other teams. The other 30 GMs do not sleep in Leaf jammies & plot how to improve Toronto even if it costs them their job.

Exactly. There is a Leaf fan on here pretty much weekly, begging the Jets to trade Trouba there for pieces we have absolutely zero need for. Then trying to convince us of the great value of the unneeded player. They just refuse to accept; we don't need him.

 

[Notsince67]

Wonder how long this topic will go on for. The fact it still is when the Jets have zero need for Kadri is pretty ridiculous.

Lets try again. Jets dont want Kadri.

You don't want Kadri. Some people have spoken out in favor. You aren't the Jets

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

I think it's unlikely Kadri repeats 32 goals this season simply because he's now playing on the third line. His TOI and his line mates ability is going to drop significantly, even if he maintains the ability he had this prior two seasons it's highly unlikely he mirrors the statistical out put.

Kadri averaged nearly 17 minutes last season with the fourth line C (Moore or Plekanec) averaging 10-11. Kadri will still get plenty of powerplay time, and whoever the Leafs fourth line C is next year will 100% see a drop in playing time (7-8 minutes at most). His ice time will be fine.

As for line mates, Kadri is no stranger to playing with guys less skilled than him. Kadri scored 32 goals and 61 points two seasons ago when his common line mates were Connor Brown and Leo Komarov. His line mates next season are going to be more skilled than that duo he had. His options will be Johnsson, Kapanen, or Brown (who as I've pointed out, he's already scored well with). Last year was really the only year Kadri had a legit first liner playing with him in Marner. He has scored at a 50-60 point pace before then.

This thread is weird because it's essentially a lot of people looking at Kadri's stats in a vacuum.

"He ranked X out of the league in points by a center..."

"He posted Y points the last two seasons..."


This stuff is all meaningless unless you contextualize it with the league around him. Where he ranked in points is misleading because there is a litany of guys who for various reasons played less games than him but are widely regarded as better. The points he posted the last two seasons aren't entirely useful since he's now moving away from those line mates and losing substantial time on ice.

Again, his line mates will be roughly the same level if not slightly better than what he's already had. The ice time may see a drop by a couple of minutes, but I don't think it'll be substantial enough to see him dip below 50 points over 82 games.

Like here's my thing about this entire thread, if you view Kadri in a vacuum he's everything Leafs fans say he is and more. Once you begin to contextualize the argument and include in the league around him and the future he becomes a lot more of a human player.


And here's the strangest thing, I don't think many people have actually said Kadri is bad, I think most people just said the characterization of him as a 1-2C is disingenuous. I think that the evidence provided widely supports that claim, but what this has turned into is a lot of people dying on the hill for Kadri as being a lot better than I think even they actually believe he is.

It also helps to know Kadri's history but most non-Leafs fans don't.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

Kadri averaged nearly 17 minutes last season with the fourth line C (Moore or Plekanec) averaging 10-11. Kadri will still get plenty of powerplay time, and whoever the Leafs fourth line C is next year will 100% see a drop in playing time (7-8 minutes at most). His ice time will be fine.

As for line mates, Kadri is no stranger to playing with guys less skilled than him. Kadri scored 32 goals and 61 points two seasons ago when his common line mates were Connor Brown and Leo Komarov. His line mates next season are going to be more skilled than that duo he had. His options will be Johnsson, Kapanen, or Brown (who as I've pointed out, he's already scored well with). Last year was really the only year Kadri had a legit first liner playing with him in Marner. He has scored at a 50-60 point pace before then.



Again, his line mates will be roughly the same level if not slightly better than what he's already had. The ice time may see a drop by a couple of minutes, but I don't think it'll be substantial enough to see him dip below 50 points over 82 games.



It also helps to know Kadri's history but most non-Leafs fans don't.

I think you're taking crazy pills if you think Kadri is still going to average 17-18 minutes of TOI with Austin Matthews and John Tavares in front of him.


Tavares averages 19 minutes last year. Matthews averaged 18 minutes. The entire point of the "two #1 C's" system is you can literally shellack the hell out of teams by continuing roughly that TOI average. My guess would be JT is around 18, Mathews is around 18, Kadri is around 14, 4C is at 10.


I don't have the stats, but I would be blown away if any 3rd line C averaged even close to 17 minutes last year. My guess would be the high end 3rd C's probably capped out at around 15 or so.


I also know he was successful on the PP unit last year, but again with more talent on the team comes less time and opportunities.

I just think it's insane to think he's going to repeat, what many Leaf's fans have told me is one of the best 2C seasons last year, and now I'm being told he'll do it again... but this time on the third line and with less time. I also think brushing away that he's on the third line as "he's played with worse players" is really ignoring that bottom 6 hockey is a different brand of hockey than top 6.

 

[Nylanderthal]

I think you're taking crazy pills if you think Kadri is still going to average 17-18 minutes of TOI with Austin Matthews and John Tavares in front of him.


Tavares averages 19 minutes last year. Matthews averaged 18 minutes. The entire point of the "two #1 C's" system is you can literally shellack the hell out of teams by continuing roughly that TOI average. My guess would be JT is around 18, Mathews is around 18, Kadri is around 14, 4C is at 10.


I don't have the stats, but I would be blown away if any 3rd line C averaged even close to 17 minutes last year. My guess would be the high end 3rd C's probably capped out at around 15 or so.


I also know he was successful on the PP unit last year, but again with more talent on the team comes less time and opportunities.

I just think it's insane to think he's going to repeat, what many Leaf's fans have told me is one of the best 2C seasons last year, and now I'm being told he'll do it again... but this time on the third line and with less time. I also think brushing away that he's on the third line as "he's played with worse players" is really ignoring that bottom 6 hockey is a different brand of hockey than top 6.

Our three #1 centres will all play 17-19 mins a night and leave only 8-10 for the fourth line C to deal with

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

Our three #1 centres will all play 17-19 mins a night and leave only 8-10 for the fourth line C to deal with

So Kadri is now going to average more minutes than he did last season as a 2C (16:46), Toronto is going to average 3 C's at 17-19, and Toronto is going to find a way to do all that and still get their 4 C to 8-10 minutes despite that mathematically being impossible in a 60 minute game.



[mod]

 

[Nylanderthal]

So Kadri is now going to average more minutes than he did last season as a 2C (16:46), Toronto is going to average 3 C's at 17-19, and Toronto is going to find a way to do all that and still get their 4 C to 8-10 minutes despite that mathematically being impossible in a 60 minute game.



[mod]

You’re really going to split hairs between 17 and 16:46? You’re REALLY reaching bud.

17 x 3 is 51, so that’s 9 minutes left over, which is right in between 8-10...


[mod]

 

[Marshy]

So Kadri is now going to average more minutes than he did last season as a 2C (16:46), Toronto is going to average 3 C's at 17-19, and Toronto is going to find a way to do all that and still get their 4 C to 8-10 minutes despite that mathematically being impossible in a 60 minute game.



[mod]

It's possible. 2 Centers will be on the PP 90% of the time.

Each PK will have 3 wingers most of the time.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

You’re really going to split hairs between 17 and 16:46? You’re REALLY reaching bud. It’s kinda sad how many posts I’ve seen you make in a leaf oriented thread. I honestly couldn’t even tell you how to find Washington’s page.... also 17 x 3 is 51, so that’s 9 minutes left over, which is right in between 8-10... moron
Edit: fully expecting some sort of punishment for my comments, but Jesus Christ are you infuriating with your idiocy

[mod] yes, I'm splitting the hairs between 16:45 as a 2C and 17 minutes as a 3C after you just added the biggest free agent center in... ever?

Als0 17-19 minutes equals 9 to 3 minutes left over, it's disingenuous to spin your "3 1Cs" as getting 17-19 TOI, and then all of the sudden roll back that TOI when you discuss your fourth line and act like he'll average 8-10.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

It's possible. 2 Centers will be on the PP 90% of the time.

Each PK will have 3 wingers most of the time.

And so adding Tavares means Kadri is getting more time?


You're losing me with this logic fellas.

Kadri was already on PP1 when he was averaging 16:45, was he not? Why does adding Tavares to the line up actually give him more time now? The guy above is saying Kadri is going to average 17-19 minutes a night... that's insane.

 

[Marshy]

And so adding Tavares means Kadri is getting more time?


You're losing me with this logic fellas.

Kadri was already on PP1 when he was averaging 16:45, was he not? Why does adding Tavares to the line up actually give him more time now? The guy above is saying Kadri is going to average 17-19 minutes a night... that's insane.

Tavares 18
Matthews 18
Kadri 17

4C 8-9

Yes that adds up to more than 60. There will be 2 centers on the ice for most of the PP time.

The 4th C is getting less ice time than last year that will be given to Kadri.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

I think you're taking crazy pills if you think Kadri is still going to average 17-18 minutes of TOI with Austin Matthews and John Tavares in front of him.


Tavares averages 19 minutes last year. Matthews averaged 18 minutes. The entire point of the "two #1 C's" system is you can literally shellack the hell out of teams by continuing roughly that TOI average. My guess would be JT is around 18, Mathews is around 18, Kadri is around 14, 4C is at 10.

The issue with your minutes is assuming Toronto's Cs will never be on the ice together. This is impossible since one of the PP units is going to have multiple Cs and their minutes will overlap.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

Tavares 18
Matthews 18
Kadri 17

4C 8-9

Yes that adds up to more than 60. There will be 2 centers on the ice for most of the PP time.

The 4th C is getting less ice time than last year that will be given to Kadri.

No, I get it, I just don't see it actually coming to fruition. Kadri's PP time isn't changing, he was already PP1, so this time he's gaining or sustaining is coming from his 5v5, I just don't see how you plain on successfully rolling with basically only 3 lines.

Bottom 6 hockey is different than top 6 hockey. Possession isn't sustained, it's a ton more dumping and chasing, it's a lot more grinding, a lot more physical along the boards. I guess we're taking the time out of the 4C, but what of the wingers? Are we just double tagging them with time too now? Is Kadri essentially playing with two lines? Like these are the details that don't really make sense, you can't just say he's dipping into the 4C line, there is a bit more too that dynamic.

 

[Snowman]

"I'd rather have Hyman (over Laine). They score similarly at 5v5 and Hyman is a defensive beast."

Imagine actually saying something that dumb and meaning it.

Are you going to provide stats proving your assertion like the other poster did?

 

[Kelly]

Are you going to provide stats proving your assertion like the other poster did?

Laine - 35 points @ 5v5
Hyman - 33 points @ 5v5

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

The issue with your minutes is assuming Toronto's Cs will never be on the ice together. This is impossible since one of the PP units is going to have multiple Cs and their minutes will overlap.

Right and I get that, but like I said above.

Kadri on the PP1 in 2017-18 was as 16:45.

We can safely assume his PP time isn't adding more to it (actually it might be the opposite). So we are now saying the real time he's making up or sustaining is actually coming out of the 5v5. So how is this entire bottom 6 working? Is Kadri essentially centering the 3rd and 4th line now and the 4C tags in when he's fatigued? Is the entire third line now handling this huge addition to minutes.

Again the Kadri Conundrum, the man does not exist in a vacuum. How is he getting 17-19 minutes a night? Who are his wingers? What style of bottom 6 hockey is being played for that duration?

 

[Snowman]

Laine - 35 points @ 5v5
Hyman - 33 points @ 5v5

Okay. Thanks.

 

[Marshy]

No, I get it, I just don't see it actually coming to fruition. Kadri's PP time isn't changing, he was already PP1, so this time he's gaining or sustaining is coming from his 5v5, I just don't see how you plain on successfully rolling with basically only 3 lines.

Bottom 6 hockey is different than top 6 hockey. Possession isn't sustained, it's a ton more dumping and chasing, it's a lot more grinding, a lot more physical along the boards. I guess we're taking the time out of the 4C, but what of the wingers? Are we just double tagging them with time too now? Is Kadri essentially playing with two lines? Like these are the details that don't really make sense, you can't just say he's dipping into the 4C line, there is a bit more too that dynamic.

Babcock is going to play his top 3 lines fairly evenly depending on opponent and the score. Average it out and you're looking at the 4th line playing about 8-9 minutes. About half of that will be PK.


6 PP minutes (on average)
6 PK minutes
48 ES minutes.


PP1 has 2 centers. Let's say it's Tavares and Kadri.

PP1 gets 4 minutes.
PP2 gets 2 minutes.

Line 1 14 ES minutes + 4 PP
Line 2 15 ES minutes + 2 PP
Line 3 13 ES minutes (Kadri + 4 PP, wingers + 3 PK)
Line 4 6 ES minutes + 3PK

 

[puckIuck]

trouba is no erik karlsson

 

[LGB51]

People still don't know how good Adam Lowry is, they'll learn.

It wasn't a few years ago many Leafs fans here considered Kadri a semi-bust and you would see numerous posts with trade offers between the Leafs & Blues around Berglund for Kadri coming from both fanbases. What a difference about 3 years and two 30G seasons can make in a fanbases attitude towards a player that use to be one of their whipping boys.

 

[loyaltotheend]

Kadri is a 30g shutdown centreman, signed to a sweetheart deal long term. So cheap that we can afford to have his talent play further down the lineup. Giving the option of exploiting matchups (in a bunch of ways).
Also is great insurance in case of injury

Trouba has had attitude problems which may or may not be resolved. I doubt they are since this apparent #1RHD is even in discussion of being moved.
He also needs a contract, and won't be signing cheap like Kadri.

Makes no sense to give up elite centre depth, even if it means improving the blue line

 

[loyaltotheend]

I don’t get into the petty debates here much, but you do realize this thread was created by a Leaf fan right? Plus as I’ve stated in the past Kadri isn’t a great fit, bc he really fills no needs or big hole.....of course you might not agree which is fine. Little is fine 2C, personally I believe he was handled wrong last year by PMO but as a Leaf you don’t always agree with line choices either by your coach. Hopefully PMO learnt his lesson last year and changes things up this year.

I like Kadri, but he doesn’t fill a huge need like Trouba does. Thus why many Jets fans insist on one of the two Swed D prospects be included as a long term backfill. Without one of them included in the deal I don’t see the Jets having any interest in Kadri directly....not bc he isn’t a good player but bc he doesn’t fill big needs.

Your points are reasonable, but we would be worse off imo to trade them 1for1, let alone add.
The low price of Kadri's deal relative to what he provides is incredible value. The depth at C will be something I think serves the Leafs VERY well this year, and is fantastic insurance in case of injury.

Trouba has plenty of value on his own and it is a position of need, to be sure. But the question mark of his attitude/intentions on where he wants to be, combined with his next deal going to cost more than Kadri means we can't afford the trade anyway.

Cheers

 

[MagicalRazor]

Laine - 35 points @ 5v5
Hyman - 33 points @ 5v5

Savage bro that's a good stat . I knew Hyman was a good 5v5 player but i never knew that Laine wasn't

 

[Scott Malkinson]

Just because Trouba is going to seek $8M+ from Winnipeg doesn't mean he's actually worth it on the trade market. Trouba, historically, has given us reason to believe he wants out of Manitoba. Jets fans can big him up when it comes to trade speculation but he is not worth a top asset like Nylander or Marner. In terms of Kadri, Nazem is very important to the Maple Leafs and the risk vs reward here would not be worth it for the Maple Leafs.

Trouba is good but the departure of Kadri would leave a gaping hole down the middle for Toronto and I'm not sure it'd be worth it for Toronto.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Just because Trouba is going to seek $8M+ from Winnipeg doesn't mean he's actually worth it on the trade market. Trouba, historically, has given us reason to believe he wants out of Manitoba. Jets fans can big him up when it comes to trade speculation but he is not worth a top asset like Nylander or Marner. In terms of Kadri, Nazem is very important to the Maple Leafs and the risk vs reward here would not be worth it for the Maple Leafs.

Trouba is good but the departure of Kadri would leave a gaping hole down the middle for Toronto and I'm not sure it'd be worth it for Toronto.

Haha no, it means he's actually worth less. Trading for a player who wants to be overpaid is just asking for trouble.

The trouble with Trouba, chapter x ...