And in reference to your previous post, I certainly do think Ghost's being -13 in his last 13 games is relevant. He's been on the ice for a ton more ES goals against than ES goals for lately, which seems to get ignored.
Why is this such a difficult concept?
Rookie Ghost was +8 (2nd best on the team) and got benched late in tie games.
Sophomore Ghost was -21 and got benched late in tie games.
Third year Ghost was +19 at the start of March and got benched late in tie games.
It does not matter what his +/- is. The coach does not believe he gives the team the best chance to get points late in games unless they are trailing.
But let's say Hakstol does believe that the 13 games prior to last night were more valuable than anything else:
GF% 5v5 last 13 team games:
Provorov 37.50%
Manning 41.66%
Gudas 38.89%
MacDonald 60.00%
Sanheim 88.89%
The guys in the bold were the ones playing down the stretch. Not exactly inspiring a lot of confidence.
But mostly I disagree with you that each minute of each game is exactly the same.
In the first period, you are looking to score, and if you give up a goal, you have plenty of time to come back.
As time ticks away in tie games or games you are winning, the odds increase that one bad turnover can cost you a point or two, because you have less time to get it back. It's also why historically in the NHL teams who are leading entering the 3rd period have an incredible winning percentage -- because their opponents don't have a lot of time to score.
Well if Hakstol is really worried about turnovers 9 and 47 wouldn't be a go to pair. MacDonald is good for 2-3 turnovers a game in the corner on his backhand with plenty of time to move the puck. Does anyone turn the puck over more in the Dzone than Provorov? He had 2 or 3 bad turnovers last night that fortunately didn't hurt the Flyers, but surely would have gotten the attention of a coach worried about turnovers. Honestly, Ghost manages the puck better than any defenseman on the team and anything suggesting he's more turnover prone than other defensemen is laughable.
In the last 5 minutes of a game, if you give up a goal, chances are you aren't going to score another one in regulation. I bet the Flyers have stats on it.
So it does make some sense to try to make sure you get to OT to ensure one point when there's that little time left, and then your riskier offensive players can play in a 3-on-3 situation where they, in theory, they should have a better chance to score without the risk of a bad turnover costing the team a point or two.
Or maybe the Flyers realize the odds of winning a game with 2 goals is slim and they should put their best players on the ice and try to score a 3rd goal and win the game in regulation. How about that? Especially when this team is not good in the OT stages of the game.
The only thing that changes late in games is coaches shorten their benches and ride their
best players. Gostisbehere is unquestionably one of the 5 best players on the team and should be playing the last 5 minutes of a tie game. That is not debatable.
