Prospect Info: 6th Overall

[WaW]

Lol Bob Mackenzie is not Craig Button. Bob actually watches junior hockey and sees the guys play, and still defers to the scouts who he knows are the experts. Craig Button is the "my friends/scouts say this/I'm friends with the Hughes family therefore I think Hughes is more of a clear #1 over Kakko than McDavid was over Eichel" kind of guy.

Bob's rankings historically have been really good relative to who goes where amd he's more humble than anyone when he's wrong and very articulate when explaining the differences in opinions.

 

[Henkka]

"15th ranked" Cole Caufield has 11 goals at 4 games U18.

"3rd ranked" Podkolzin has 0+1 at 4 games.

This is happening after those "Podkolzin 3rd at every list"... which could change those lists.

A surprise!

Nothing is set on stone yet.

 

[Frk It]

"15th ranked" Cole Caufield has 11 goals at 4 games U18.

"3rd ranked" Podkolzin has 0+1 at 4 games.

This is happening after those "Podkolzin 3rd at every list"... which could change those lists.

A surprise!

Nothing is set on stone yet.

I don’t think Caufield will rise much more. Also not sure Podkolzin will be penalized when his supporting cast is pretty limited. Team Russia has 0 defenseman that are any good. Scouts don’t usually put as much stock into the 1 week tournaments as fans do, but Podkolzin is a guy who has built mostly a reputation off these tournaments.

Mckenzie’s final ranking usually comes out in June, so we will see what kind of movement there is after this tournament.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

I think we're a little too laser-focused on the U-18s. At this point, most scouts have their minds made up, and it would take a really big change in a prospect's performance to change that a lot. Caufield has made a big enough impact that I think he's moved up to the latter part of the top 10, but I don't think Podkolzin's lack of impact on a relatively crappy Russian team is going to sink him too too badly. From the Russia games I've been able to watch, he's still been pretty darn good.

Also Podkolzin's support comes from a non-statistical argument (we always hear about his insane compete level), so I wouldn't be surprised if a statistical argument cannot defeat that in the minds of his supporters.

 

[Henkka]

Also not sure Podkolzin will be penalized when his supporting cast is pretty limited. Team Russia has 0 defenseman that are any good. Scouts don’t usually put as much stock into the 1 week tournaments as fans do, but Podkolzin is a guy who has built mostly a reputation off these tournaments.

Easily Podkolzin could drop on his Talent Group from 1st to last.

It's kind of interesting thinking, that he builds reputation from Hlinka tournament or WJCC, but then would not lose any reputation from another tournament like U18 or U20 with zero goals and no-show on his Russian lower level games. Everything will affect together in when you build the Final rank.

What does a drop inside the Talent Group mean?

From 3rd ranked to 6th-7th ranked.

That's the way it goes.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

"15th ranked" Cole Caufield has 11 goals at 4 games U18.

"3rd ranked" Podkolzin has 0+1 at 4 games.

This is happening after those "Podkolzin 3rd at every list"... which could change those lists.

A surprise!

Nothing is set on stone yet.

I think it would be a mistake to shuffle the results too badly based on a single tournament. It would be like giving Mantha or AA a contract based on their last two months of this season or whatever someone pays Nyquist if they're using the 70 point year this year as his barometer.

Caufield is ranked 15th for a reason.

 

[Frk It]

I don’t want to shit on him, but Caufield is literally in the perfect situation. USA owns the puck every game and dominates, their collection of guys that are both plus skaters and plus passers to get him the puck is ridiculous.

I would be VERY surprised if he goes in the top 10 even with the goal totals he has posted.

 

[Frk It]

Easily Podkolzin could drop on his Talent Group from 1st to last.

It's kind of interesting thinking, that he builds reputation from Hlinka tournament or WJCC, but then would not lose any reputation from another tournament like U18 or U20 with zero goals and no-show on his Russian lower level games. Everything will affect together in when you build the Final rank.

What does a drop inside the Talent Group mean?

From 3rd ranked to 6th-7th ranked.

That's the way it goes.

Again, I was just pointing out where NHL scouts had him.

I personally don’t think he’s all that and have had him ranked 8-11 all year. He reminds me of someone like Nino Niederreiter. I hope Stevie isn’t tempted to take him just because he has had success with Russian players.

We will have to see Henkka.

 

[Henkka]

Like the thing is that If I would be the scouting director, I would have numeric values for everybody.

1. Hughes ~100 points
2. Kakko ~95 points
-------------- Then:
3. current Podkolzin, 71 points
4. Byram, 70 points
5. Dach, 69 points
6. Cozens, 68 points
7. Turcotte, 67 points
(adjusted Podkolzin, 66 points)

These are hypothetical value points. Some kind of random system to rank players.

On this draft, this group is extremely tight. Then Podkolzin struggles and as Final Draft rank you adjust him with -5.0 points.

He drops behind Turcotte.

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

Newhook is having a dynamite tournament.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

"15th ranked" Cole Caufield has 11 goals at 4 games U18.

"3rd ranked" Podkolzin has 0+1 at 4 games.

This is happening after those "Podkolzin 3rd at every list"... which could change those lists.

A surprise!

Nothing is set on stone yet.

Well you're drafting them what you think they will do in the NHL not U18 tournament stats no one will care about in 2 years...

 

[FireBird71]

I don’t want to **** on him, but Caufield is literally in the perfect situation. USA owns the puck every game and dominates, their collection of guys that are both plus skaters and plus passers to get him the puck is ridiculous.

I would be VERY surprised if he goes in the top 10 even with the goal totals he has posted.

Not me...I think this will vault him into the 8-10 area

 

[Orthodox Caveman]

Yeah, I agree with your thought process on Podkolzin for the record.

But 80% of scouts still having him #3 a few weeks ago is pretty telling. So I'm going to go with that unless something changes with Mckenzie's final ranking. I could also see Chicago going with Cozens, because they reportedly wanted Hayon last year and I think Cozens is pretty similar.

There are certainly some different possibilities here for the top 5 and how things shake out.

There’s a behind the scenes of their 2018 draft process on youtube and Bowman/Kelley were almost laughing at the Hayton pick. It’s apparent they thought he went a little too early.

I’m curious how much readiness will factor into the Hawks pick. It’s gotta be Podkolzin or Cozens...it’s just gotta be.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I think we're a little too laser-focused on the U-18s. At this point, most scouts have their minds made up, and it would take a really big change in a prospect's performance to change that a lot. Caufield has made a big enough impact that I think he's moved up to the latter part of the top 10, but I don't think Podkolzin's lack of impact on a relatively crappy Russian team is going to sink him too too badly. From the Russia games I've been able to watch, he's still been pretty darn good.

Also Podkolzin's support comes from a non-statistical argument (we always hear about his insane compete level), so I wouldn't be surprised if a statistical argument cannot defeat that in the minds of his supporters.

Without question there is some real risk of recency bias with the U18s. One man's opinion, but I can only see this tournament helping the cause of some guys in unique situations...Newhook in the BCHL, Krebs in Kootenay, maybe someone like Brink or some kids from the non-powerhouse Euro teams. I don't think scouts are going to drop someone because of it if they have played great all year (Pods). Similarly, I don't expect them to push someone like Caufield radically higher as a result of the tournament. Caufield has been scoring goals all season long and is hardly underexposed.

 

[newfy]

Without question there is some real risk of recency bias with the U18s. One man's opinion, but I can only see this tournament helping the cause of some guys in unique situations...Newhook in the BCHL, Krebs in Kootenay, maybe someone like Brink or some kids from the non-powerhouse Euro teams. I don't think scouts are going to drop someone because of it if they have played great all year (Pods). Similarly, I don't expect them to push someone like Caufield radically higher as a result of the tournament. Caufield has been scoring goals all season long and is hardly underexposed.

I'm sure its a good way for them to measure guys that they've had ranked really close all year too. Lets say a team before this had a couple guys like Korczak or Harley ranked close to one another, they might definitively put one ahead of the other because they can compare them playing on the same team. But ya for the most part I dont think guys move a tonne based on this tournament but it will have an impact. Its also at the end of the season which means this is the best on best tournament where these guys have developed the most.

 

[SirloinUB]

Lol Bob Mackenzie is not Craig Button. Bob actually watches junior hockey and sees the guys play, and still defers to the scouts who he knows are the experts. Craig Button is the "my friends/scouts say this/I'm friends with the Hughes family therefore I think Hughes is more of a clear #1 over Kakko than McDavid was over Eichel" kind of guy.

Bob's rankings historically have been really good relative to who goes where amd he's more humble than anyone when he's wrong and very articulate when explaining the differences in opinions.

Bob McKenzie is at all of the major tournaments but he is clear that his ranking is simply the average result taken from a survey of scouts. Bob McKenzie is a career reporter and a very good one at that.

Button on the other hand has a strong track record as a professional scout long before he joined TSN. To this day he still spends a ton of time on the road watching junior hockey all over the world. I’ve personally witnessed him scouting the Helinka-Gretzky Tournament and my local WHL team multiple times. More significantly, I’ve listened to his regular segment on TSN radio where he talks about travelling Thursday through Sunday(throughout the season) to watch regional pockets of junior hockey all over the continent. Like McKenzie, Button is at all of the major tournaments.

I definitely agree McKenzie’s method lands closer to the draft results while Button has more curveballs.

To be clear, I’m not making an argument for one over the other. Hell, if you don’t like Craig’s rankings this would probably make him look worse . I just wanted to clarify the misunderstanding that Craig Button doesn’t watch much junior hockey. He watches more than most; McKenzie (most likely) included.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

I don’t want to **** on him, but Caufield is literally in the perfect situation. USA owns the puck every game and dominates, their collection of guys that are both plus skaters and plus passers to get him the puck is ridiculous.

I would be VERY surprised if he goes in the top 10 even with the goal totals he has posted.

This exactly. I've been trying to tiptoe around this sentiment. They're just such a strong team, and he's got two insanely skilled linemates. If you're a goalscorer, it's the dream. I have no doubt Cozens would look like he could challenge Kakko in that situation.

 

[Henkka]

I think it would be a mistake to shuffle the results too badly based on a single tournament. It would be like giving Mantha or AA a contract based on their last two months of this season or whatever someone pays Nyquist if they're using the 70 point year this year as his barometer.

Caufield is ranked 15th for a reason.

Yeah...

Was I suffling him somewhere because of a one tournament?

NO.

I ws just talking that one guy is doing great and shining and other isn't. I has some weight, but it' not the god's word. Every tournament will matter. All the time I'm talking about talent groups and moves inside of them. Not some big sufflings. That's the way of drafting.

So, maybe adjusting his spot inside a talent group, just like Podkolzin. That would mean raise a one spot in front of Suzuki. 14th --> 13th. Oh, well.

That's what could happen after one good tournament. If Suzuki does also great, then stand pat.

 

[jkutswings]

Yeah...

Was I suffling him somewhere because of a one tournament?

NO.

I ws just talking that one guy is doing great and shining and other isn't. I has some weight, but it' not the god's word. Every tournament will matter. All the time I'm talking about talent groups and moves inside of them. Not some big sufflings. That's the way of drafting.

So, maybe adjusting his spot inside a talent group, just like Podkolzin. That would mean raise a one spot in front of Suzuki. 14th --> 13th. Oh, well.

That's what could happen after one good tournament. If Suzuki does also great, then stand pat.

But I don't think most pro scouts had Podkolzin neck and neck with the rest of that group to begin with. If this tournament drops his stock by "5 points", he might have previously had a "10-15 point lead", and the rankings are unchanged.

That's definitely not MY evaluation, but that's the impression I have from most rankings. We'll see how it unfolds.

 

[Invictus12]

On a group of almost equal guys, like these from 3 to 9. They can go in any order, not matter what the scouts say for Bob MacKenzie.

My rank is just average from other ranks. Differencies are real small, Like Byram average is 4.5 and Zegras average is 9.7

But I see 99% sure Podkolzin falling out of TOP6, because Centers are more valuable than equal level of winger. Just like Zadina did drop.

And how Kotkaniemi pick is perfect example, how trusting our own vision, your "3rd best" could be the best of all "3rds".

I can't speak intelligently on this years draftees but is it possibly that Kotkaniemi was simply viewed as the better player by Montreal? First of all he hit the ground running faster than Zadina did and besides, Veleno dropped down pretty far if thats were the case.

 

[Invictus12]

Right around there yep, I think it was 5th. He was also ranked 9th by Bob Mackenzie in the draft but for some reason we have idiots still going on about him being a reach. It makes no sense but people will think what they want to think I guess

It's all too popular these days... When the narrative doesn't fit, the solution for some reason isn't to adjust your own view but instead make up all kinds of bs to make it seem like you have a point.

 

[jkutswings]

Taking #9 at #6 is technically a small reach, but that wasn't what upset me at the time. I wasn't interested in Rasmussen at 6 or 16 or 26, because I had thought he was just pushing smaller kids around, which he wouldn't get away with in the pros, and that he would project strictly as a middle six winger, which wasn't a priority.

 

[Invictus12]

Um, Ras was a 9th pick...

 

[newfy]

Taking #9 at #6 is technically a small reach, but that wasn't what upset me at the time. I wasn't interested in Rasmussen at 6 or 16 or 26, because I had thought he was just pushing smaller kids around, which he wouldn't get away with in the pros, and that he would project strictly as a middle six winger, which wasn't a priority.

Couple things wrong here. First he was a 9th pick, so not a reach at all. Second, when hes done filling out, he'll likely be the biggest forward in the entire league and one of, if not the biggest players as well. A guy like Tyler Myers is taller, but Rasmussen will likely be 20 lbs heavier at his height. So theres no reason to think once he hits his prime that he wont be pushing around most of the league.

 

[jkutswings]

Couple things wrong here. First he was a 9th pick, so not a reach at all. Second, when hes done filling out, he'll likely be the biggest forward in the entire league and one of, if not the biggest players as well. A guy like Tyler Myers is taller, but Rasmussen will likely be 20 lbs heavier at his height. So theres no reason to think once he hits his prime that he wont be pushing around most of the league.

Sorry, got my wires crossed there for a sec. Yes, he was 9th, but at the time Vilardi was 5th, and I was hoping for him. Before the draft ever started, I said on these very boards that Rasmussen was the one player I wanted nothing to do with.

I like him a little better now than in 2017, but I still think he's strictly a middle six winger.