Prospect Info: 68th overall: Vancouver selects Tyler Madden (son of John, Northeastern University commit)

[VanJack]

Considering where he was drafted, you'd have to say that Tyler Madden has come the furthest and the fastest, of any Canuck prospect period. A third rounder drafted in late 60's of the 2018 draft....Fast forward two years, he's already played and starred for the USA World Junior team; was one of the top rookies in the NCAA in his freshman season; and now in his sophomore season is one of the top scorers in NCAA Div. I hockey, not to mention being in the Hobey Baker conversation.

That would be a meteoric rise for even a first-round draft pick...it's ridiculous for a kid drafted in the third round. Not a question anymore 'if' he plays in the NHL but 'when'. You have to give props to the Canucks scouting staff for this one.

 

[VanCity Millionaires]

2018 Summer Development Camp

Still remember being shocked about this at the time.

July 6, 2018

"Got upgraded to the Encore box and had a chance to hear Linden and Green address us personally. The most interesting takeaway from this was Linden's statement that Madden, not Hughes, is the pick he is most excited about (this was before the game even). And yes, someone directly asked him, "Not Hughes?" and Linden doubled down and reiterated the Madden pick as his personal favourite. Green pretty much toed the company line and stated that the emphasis will be on youth, and that any player that shows they deserve a roster spot will have one made available for them. He's excited about the last two year's drafts and his goal is to take this team championship levels."

 

[M2Beezy]

 

[Spectrefire]

Considering where he was drafted, you'd have to say that Tyler Madden has come the furthest and the fastest, of any Canuck prospect period. A third rounder drafted in late 60's of the 2018 draft....Fast forward two years, he's already played and starred for the USA World Junior team; was one of the top rookies in the NCAA in his freshman season; and now in his sophomore season is one of the top scorers in NCAA Div. I hockey, not to mention being in the Hobey Baker conversation.

That would be a meteoric rise for even a first-round draft pick...it's ridiculous for a kid drafted in the third round. Not a question anymore 'if' he plays in the NHL but 'when'. You have to give props to the Canucks scouting staff for this one.

It's basically Gaudette 2.0.

 

[VanJack]

It's basically Gaudette 2.0.

Other than the fact that they both played at Northeastern and put up a bushel of points, I'm not seeing many other similarities between the games of Gaudette and Madden.

I think Madden already processes the game at a higher speed, and is a serious speed threat through the neutral zone. Gaudette is bigger, but scored a lot of his NCAA goals on the pp.

Quite a find for the Canucks in the third round....in fact most of the 2018 're-drafts' have Madden firmly in the back half of the first round.

 

[Hoghandler]

Amongst NCAA players in their draft +2 season, Tyler Madden is 2nd in PPG over the past decade, closely trailing Johnny Gaudreau, just ahead of Reilly Smith. Adam Gaudette sits 4th on that list.

What a completely foreign feeling it is knowing you’re in good hands when it comes to drafting. Makes you wonder what these guys have in store for an encore. Remarkable step forward in this regard over the last 6 drafts.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Amongst NCAA players in their draft +2 season, Tyler Madden is 2nd in PPG over the past decade, closely trailing Johnny Gaudreau, just ahead of Reilly Smith. Adam Gaudette sits 4th on that list.

What a completely foreign feeling it is knowing you’re in good hands when it comes to drafting. Makes you wonder what these guys have in store for an encore. Remarkable step forward in this regard over the last 6 drafts.

6 drafts is a bit much.

More like last 3.

 

[Hoghandler]

6 drafts is a bit much.

More like last 3.

Adam Gaudette was 6 drafts ago...

 

[Hodgy]

Amongst NCAA players in their draft +2 season, Tyler Madden is 2nd in PPG over the past decade, closely trailing Johnny Gaudreau, just ahead of Reilly Smith. Adam Gaudette sits 4th on that list.

What a completely foreign feeling it is knowing you’re in good hands when it comes to drafting. Makes you wonder what these guys have in store for an encore. Remarkable step forward in this regard over the last 6 drafts.

The Canucks have scouted well in the NCAA long before Benning took over. Umerger, Kesler, Schneider and Tanev all were drafted or signed out of the NCAA. The trend has certainly continued under Benning, though. The big question to me is why we are not drafting more players out of the NCAA with these results?

 

[Hoghandler]

The Canucks have scouted well in the NCAA long before Benning took over. Umerger, Kesler, Schneider and Tanev all were drafted or signed out of the NCAA. The trend has certainly continued under Benning, though. The big question to me is why we are not drafting more players out of the NCAA with these results?

Did they have the same level of success pre-Benning? I know they had success, but does it compare to Boeser, Demko, Gaudette, Madden etc. When you factor in pick quality, duration and so on...

I am on board with going more heavily into college and Europe for drafting, as these areas have brought more success. But even the WHL is starting to look better. Lind and Woo are both developing on a good arc at the moment.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Did they have the same level of success pre-Benning? I know they had success, but does it compare to Boeser, Demko, Gaudette, Madden etc. When you factor in pick quality, duration and so on...

I am on board with going more heavily into college and Europe for drafting, as these areas have brought more success. But even the WHL is starting to look better. Lind and Woo are both developing on a good arc at the moment.

I think that’s a fair comment. It seems like our overall scouting has improved in recent years. They seem to be putting a premium on skill and attitude and less on size by itself. It’s a credit to Brackett as head of amateur scouting and to the whole management group. It’s no wonder Bracketts name is starting to come up so much in discussions.

 

[Knight53]

Need to get Brackett signed ASAP

 

[Hodgy]

Did they have the same level of success pre-Benning? I know they had success, but does it compare to Boeser, Demko, Gaudette, Madden etc. When you factor in pick quality, duration and so on...

I am on board with going more heavily into college and Europe for drafting, as these areas have brought more success. But even the WHL is starting to look better. Lind and Woo are both developing on a good arc at the moment.

It’s a pretty complicated analysis, given that it isn’t only pick position, but strength of draft too. Also, we are comparing finished products, generally, to unfinished products. Schneider, Kesler and Umberger were all mid to late first round picks if I recall correctly. Tanev was obviously undrafted. So in terms of “pick value”, it’s likely that Tanev will be the best of the bunch, but perhaps Madden can challenge if he becomes a top line forward. But then again, he may not even be an NHLer. Hughes is probably going to be the best of the bunch (although, value wise, he and Kesler may not be too far off) but he was also the highest pick. Drafting may have slightly improved but it appears to be strong under both, and if, for example, Madden busts and Gaudette doesn’t become a top six forward, then perhaps drafting in the NCAA was stronger pre Benning. Honestly, too hard to call at this time in my opinion.

But my point stands in that the following statement you made, at least in terms of NCAA scouting, which seems to be the driving force of our scouting, doesn’t really stand:

“What a completely foreign feeling it is knowing you’re in good hands when it comes to drafting.”

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

The Canucks have scouted well in the NCAA long before Benning took over. Umerger, Kesler, Schneider and Tanev all were drafted or signed out of the NCAA. The trend has certainly continued under Benning, though. The big question to me is why we are not drafting more players out of the NCAA with these results?

Same with Bieksa and Raymond (though Raymond went the NCAA route post-draft).

 

[Catamarca Livin]

It’s a pretty complicated analysis, given that it isn’t only pick position, but strength of draft too. Also, we are comparing finished products, generally, to unfinished products. Schneider, Kesler and Umberger were all mid to late first round picks if I recall correctly. Tanev was obviously undrafted. So in terms of “pick value”, it’s likely that Tanev will be the best of the bunch, but perhaps Madden can challenge if he becomes a top line forward. But then again, he may not even be an NHLer. Hughes is probably going to be the best of the bunch (although, value wise, he and Kesler may not be too far off) but he was also the highest pick. Drafting may have slightly improved but it appears to be strong under both, and if, for example, Madden busts and Gaudette doesn’t become a top six forward, then perhaps drafting in the NCAA was stronger pre Benning. Honestly, too hard to call at this time in my opinion.

But my point stands in that the following statement you made, at least in terms of NCAA scouting, which seems to be the driving force of our scouting, doesn’t really stand:

“What a completely foreign feeling it is knowing you’re in good hands when it comes to drafting.”

Your examples are from the early 2000's 10 years and more before Benning's 2014 draft of Demko. Connaughton, Hutton and Schoeder were highlights of NCAA draft of 10 drafts in between. So I think Demko, Gaudette, Boeser and now Madden possibly Rathbone is good haul in last 6 drafts.

 

[Hoghandler]

Quinn Hughes
Brock Boeser
Thatcher Demko
Adam Gaudette
Tyler Madden
Jack Rathbone
Aiden Mcdonaugh

Have to think the Benning drafting era will be the best in franchise history from the NCAA; that’s including accounting for pick position.

If there was an era considered better than this, I’m open to being convinced... tough to imagine outdoing Benning’s body of work here.

 

[VancouverJagger]

Did they have the same level of success pre-Benning? I know they had success, but does it compare to Boeser, Demko, Gaudette, Madden etc. When you factor in pick quality, duration and so on...

I am on board with going more heavily into college and Europe for drafting, as these areas have brought more success. But even the WHL is starting to look better. Lind and Woo are both developing on a good arc at the moment.

Ehhhhh to Lind and Woo ever becoming full time NHL'ers. Still a very low probability for either of them imo. But yes I agree completely with college and Europe - definitely seems to be our bread and butter.

 

[Hodgy]

Quinn Hughes
Brock Boeser
Thatcher Demko
Adam Gaudette
Tyler Madden
Jack Rathbone
Aiden Mcdonaugh

Have to think the Benning drafting era will be the best in franchise history from the NCAA; that’s including accounting for pick position.

If there was an era considered better than this, I’m open to being convinced... tough to imagine outdoing Benning’s body of work here.

It’s not really tough to imagine at all, especially when the players have already been listed above. Umberger, Kesler, Schneider and Bieksa were all drafted within six years. It isn’t inconceivable that those four could end up having better NHL careers then the players you listed. I don’t think it’s really worthy speculating, but you are being a bit disingenuous in totally disregarding this possibility.

 

[Hodgy]

Your examples are from the early 2000's 10 years and more before Benning's 2014 draft of Demko. Connaughton, Hutton and Schoeder were highlights of NCAA draft of 10 drafts in between. So I think Demko, Gaudette, Boeser and now Madden possibly Rathbone is good haul in last 6 drafts.

Tanev was 2010, which provides some continuity. Schroeder was a miss, but Connaughton and Hutton were great value where they were picked. Ultimately, I think our recent success in the NCAA is a continuation of past success. But depending on how some of the players discussed develop, it may be that Benning has improved this area.

 

[StreetHawk]

Quinn Hughes
Brock Boeser
Thatcher Demko
Adam Gaudette
Tyler Madden
Jack Rathbone
Aiden Mcdonaugh

Have to think the Benning drafting era will be the best in franchise history from the NCAA; that’s including accounting for pick position.

If there was an era considered better than this, I’m open to being convinced... tough to imagine outdoing Benning’s body of work here.

Of this list only Demko and Hughes actually played in the NCAA before they got drafted due to their late birthday.

you are scouting the USHL in the case of Boeser or the USNDT like Lockwood who play a mix of games between the USHL and NCAA. And tier II like the BCHL for NCAA commitments. Plus the odd HS like Rathbone.

 

[Hoghandler]

It’s not really tough to imagine at all, especially when the players have already been listed above. Umberger, Kesler, Schneider and Bieksa were all drafted within six years. It isn’t inconceivable that those four could end up having better NHL careers then the players you listed. I don’t think it’s really worthy speculating, but you are being a bit disingenuous in totally disregarding this possibility.

I didn’t totally disregard anything. As I said, the drafting was good out of the NCAA prior to Benning coming aboard. It just looks to have potentially gotten better since then. He hasn’t had any Patrick White or Jordan Schroeder’s yet.

It’s not just the elite talent he’s found, it’s the hit rate looks pretty damn remarkable to my eye.

 

[Hoghandler]

Of this list only Demko and Hughes actually played in the NCAA before they got drafted due to their late birthday.

you are scouting the USHL in the case of Boeser or the USNDT like Lockwood who play a mix of games between the USHL and NCAA. And tier II like the BCHL for NCAA commitments. Plus the odd HS like Rathbone.

True. It’s not just the NCAA scouting, it’s the scouting of the American programs.

 

[Hodgy]

I didn’t totally disregard anything. As I said, the drafting was good out of the NCAA prior to Benning coming aboard. It just looks to have potentially gotten better since then. He hasn’t had any Patrick White or Jordan Schroeder’s yet.

It’s not just the elite talent he’s found, it’s the hit rate looks pretty damn remarkable to my eye.

Yes, I do think you essentially totally disregarded it by stating that ”tough to imagine outdoing Benning’s body of work here.”. Is it really tough to imagine when the names of Umberger, Kesler, Schneider and Bieksa, all drafted within six years of one another, were already mentioned? Doesn’t seem very tough to me; hence why I am critical of how genuine you are being.

 

[Hoghandler]

Yes, I do think you essentially totally disregarded it by stating that ”tough to imagine outdoing Benning’s body of work here.”. Is it really tough to imagine when the names of Umberger, Kesler, Schneider and Bieksa, all drafted within six years of one another, were already mentioned? Doesn’t seem very tough to me; hence why I am critical of how genuine you are being.

Yes, it is tough for me to look at these lists and come to the conclusion Bennings body of work won’t end up being the best when all is said and done. You didn’t address the hit rate, or misses from these areas before Benning came aboard.

What is Bennings biggest swing and a miss from the US in your opinion? Worst pick for you?

 

[Hodgy]

Yes, it is tough for me to look at these lists and come to the conclusion Bennings body of work won’t end up being the best when all is said and done.

"Tough to imagine" does not equal "tough to conclude". The former is a lower threshold, whereas the latter's threshold would be on a balance of probabilities. With your original threshold, all that needs to be proven is that it isn't difficult to imagine that the pre-Benning players turn out better than the post-Benning players; it doesn't mean that this is the most likely outcome. So you have shifted the goal posts with this new, higher threshold.

As for the original threshold, how is it difficult to imagine that Kesler, Umberger, Schneider and Bieksa end up having better careers than Hughes, Boeser, Demko, Gaudette, Madden, Rathbone and McDonoaugh? You don't have to have a great imagination. Here, let me help you out: McDonaugh, Rathbone and Madden all bust. This isn't actually a super unlikely outcome. Gaudette never becomes a top six forward. Again, this isn't a super unlikely outcome. Demko's career isn't as good as Schneider's. Again, not a super unlikely outcome. Boeser follows a Eberle like trajectory, and Hughes tops out as a Rafalski type defensement. The last two are probably less likely events, but again, something can be less likely to occur but also not tough to imagine. So there you go, I have just imagine a set of circumstances where the pre-Benning group is better than the post-Benning group, and it wasn't "tough" to imagine at all. In fact, it was quite easy.

You didn’t address the hit rate, or misses from these areas before Benning came aboard.

What is Bennings biggest swing and a miss from the US in your opinion? Worst pick for you?

Not really relevant to the point I was making. Like I said, I think it would be a complicated analysis to get into, and would involve lots of speculation. I don't really feel like engaging in a debate of this type. With that being said, I do think there is a very good chance that the Benning group is better than the pre-Benning group.